Bush vs Kerry

gak555 · Sep 19, 2004

Sorry if this is being posted in the wrong forum but it is a wagering question.

Politics aside (I have bet both democrat and republican over the years), it seems to me that if Bush maintains a steady line the next six weeks, holds his own in the debates and doesn't make any rash decisions or mistakes , that the white house will be his for another four years. Kerry just does not seem to be running a very strong or exciting campaign and certainly does not come across as being very presidential.

Bush is available from -226 up to -250 or higher at various books. Anyone feel that taking Bush would be a strong play even though one would have to lay over 2 to 1.

wilheim · Sep 19, 2004

I give up, knock yourselves out.

wil.

Guest · Sep 19, 2004

dont take that price on bush,the race will be very close

drunkguy · Sep 19, 2004

at -250 you need bush to win >70% of the time to break even.

Even if you believe that to be the case, there is way too much downside to Bush...you can be sure that terrorist organizations are looking to take a shot at american interests in the few weeks leading up to the election in an attempt to influence the results. IN fact I would say that is their #1 priority at this point.

Way too many targets...lots of soft targets in the US, plenty more overseas...one terrorism event and Bush is going to have a hard time getting elected.

At the minimum I would not suggest taking Bush for this reason alone. As much as we all would hate to see another tragedy, the chances of that happening are higher than most of would like to admit.

Wil- sounds like you have been battling this out in the politics forum

lander · Sep 19, 2004

FWIW Bluegrass has -185

Mind you that's a 3-way line with Nader, but who are they kidding.

Another interesting stat is that an American President seeking re-election during a time of war (even those based on fabricated "evidence") has never lost. Of course, the sample size isn't too big on any of these stats.

REDEYE · Sep 19, 2004

I got Bush at -120 a few weeks ago and I still think the race is close. I might pull the trigger on Kerry and settle for a smaller profit

wilheim · Sep 19, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Wil- sounds like you have been battling this out in the politics forum <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Drunkguy, I am now officially neutral when it comes to politics (moderators are to liberal at the Rx complaints). The real problem is I have been trying to keep threads like this one that have politics as the main theme (even with betting) in the politics forum. I have moved several over the last few months from Offshore to Politics, including one the other night by Vaulted Treehouse. I apologise to anyone who was offended by this, only trying to keep the inevietable political bickering off of this forum. Hopefully this thread will stay on the betting aspect of the topic and not turn into a sticks and stones thing.

wil.

hanover00 · Sep 20, 2004

Political futures markets are indicating Bush with a 70% probability of winning. So, the books that are pricing -250 are accurately quoting this if vig is included (actual should be -233). Keep in mind that this is a probability of winning, NOT an estimate of the vote %. It could be a very close election, however, the money sees a 70% chance of winning even if by one electoral vote.