Bush vs Kerry

[gak555]

Sorry if this is being posted in the wrong forum but it is a wagering question.

Politics aside (I have bet both democrat and republican over the years), it seems to me that if Bush maintains a steady line the next six weeks, holds his own in the debates and doesn't make any rash decisions or mistakes , that the white house will be his for another four years. Kerry just does not seem to be running a very strong or exciting campaign and certainly does not come across as being very presidential.

Bush is available from -226 up to -250 or higher at various books. Anyone feel that taking Bush would be a strong play even though one would have to lay over 2 to 1.

 

[GAMEFACE]

gak,

it's money in the bank. should have checked into the political forum sooner. you could have jumped on BUSH near even money.

 

[SENDITIN]

Yes 2 dimes at -105 on Bush is looking quite good right now...thanks to Lander for pointing out how smart the Greek was to have Kerry favored several weeks back.

 

[billthecop]

Yep, but don't be confused by the same terminology used by sportsbooks when posting lines on sports events and political elections. When they set the lines between these two completely different types of events you have to keep in mind that a line 0f -250 in a ballgame just indicates that in the opinion of some so called "experts" one team is more likely to win. Keep in mind, the real outcome of the game is decided on the field, and nothing can be done by the bettors on the respective teams to alter that outcome.

Conversely, in policital elections the line has a direct nexus to the scientifically conduced polls, which reflect the voting intentions of the public. So it is the actual participants in the election that are determining the true line. This sampling technique, when done properly, is so accurate that they predict the outcome of an election by conducing exit polls of as little as 2% of the people and extrapolate from that small sample the winner of the election.

My point is, if these polls are accurate, Bush at -220 is a hell of a lot better bet than some ML bet on a 5 point fav in a football game. Although getting Bush at even money would have been much better, there's nothing wrong with the -220 now!

Goodluck, and take that bet to the bank!

 

[jointpleasures]

Win a football game and put it all back on Bush, then you could basically get Bush at even money again.

 

[GAMEFACE]

Sendit,

I quit reading much of landers drivel, some of the bullshit he comes up with is just to bizzare. I'm sure he cost some of his fellow poster some cash on that one.