Bush now has solid lead over Kerry

[LarryWiley]

http://in.rediff.com/news/2004/sep/10us.htm

Bush now has solid lead over Kerry
September 10, 2004

US President George W Bush has raced much ahead of his Democratic presidential rival John Kerry with a solid 52 to 43 per cent lead, a new poll said in Washington.

Cashing in on the recent slump in Kerry's campaign, Bush emerged from the high-voltage Republican Party convention in New York with a clear-cut lead over Kerry in the November 2 elections, the campaign for which till last week was a neck-and-neck race.

Bush has strengthened his position on virtually every important issue in the campaign and also opened up a clear advantage over his rival on many of the personal characteristics that influence voters, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll published on Friday

 

[RobFunk]

hate to say it, but that is pretty much on the money. if they had the election within the next 7 days President George Bush would win with probable fair ease.

there is more than enough undecided territory sitting out for kerry to win, but he will have to strengthen his campaign and be very succesful in the debates. . .and President Bush is one heck of a debator.

how bad does Kerry want this thing? We'll see. . .

 

[WildBill]

This doesn't quite agree:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

 

[oldmantime]

I would look again at the polls after the first debate on 9/30.
I'm not a supporter of polls--but if Kerry has a chance he must win the debates. Don't have any idea how they will come off.

 

[WildBill]

OMT,

You could say the same about Bush. With the spin the media puts on things I highly doubt there will be anyone declaring a dead heat in the debates. One side will generally be seen as the victors and chances are good the victor will also find a way to win the election. I don't have a feel for how the debates will go though, I think both sides have inherent weakenesses that can be exploited. How well that plays out will decide who wins the debates.

 

[RobFunk]

WildBill, I appreciate the above link that guy has some sharp anaylisis.

he had bush ahead the other day and kerry now so its back and forth but i like the fact he stays on top of things with so many relevant stat sources

 

[D2bets]

National polls aren't worth much more than the paper they're written on. Focus on the state polls in the battleground states. The rest is fluff.

 

[lander]

While I agree that Bush would win an election today, and has to be the clear favorite in November (no incumbent has lost during a war) ...

.. the last election showed that polls don't mean too much.

 

[WildBill]

You guys hit it all on the head. BTW, the link I provided was showing Kerry well ahead up until the convention. Then the bounce for Bush put him up. Now the bounce is clearly losing its force and once again Kerry has, at least according to the polls, enough electoral votes to win at 273. Which completely flies in the face of these all over the map national polls. You know something has to be wrong with the polls though when some say Bush by 9 percent, while others have it essentially a dead heat. I won't say there isn't bias, but bias shouldn't really be a big factor in scientifically reached polling. Not sure what causes it, but as long as they come in all over the place, hard to put any credence in any of them.