Creighton [26-7 (14-4), RPI: 40, SOS: 111] The Bluejays might have lost their at-large bid when Cleveland State won the Horizon League tournament, USC won the Pac-10 and Temple won the Atlantic 10. Creighton was routed 73-49 by Illinois State in the semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, not the kind of impression you want to leave in March. But Creighton still has a pretty good argument for an at-large bid, with victories over RPI top-50 opponents Dayton and Illinois State. The Bluejays also have victories over New Mexico (home) and MVC champion Northern Iowa (road). They're 2-2 against RPI top-50 foes and 9-5 against the top 100. They'll also get help from their more-than-respectable 8-4 record in road games and 11-1 finish.
Saint Mary's [26-6 (10-4), RPI: 48, SOS: 159] Instead of sitting and watching other bubble teams try to win at-large bids, the Gaels played a regular-season game Friday night, beating Eastern Washington 85-65. Saint Mary's coach Randy Bennett didn't schedule the game until last week and wanted to use it to showcase point guard Patty Mills. Mills missed his team's final nine regular-season games after breaking his right hand, and he looked shaky in the Gaels' two games in the WCC tournament. Mills scored 19 points on 6-for-14 shooting against Eastern Washington, a 12-18 team from the Big Sky Conference. It was Saint Mary's 26th victory of the season. Only six teams with 26 wins have been left out of the NCAA field. (Creighton, Niagara and Charleston also won 26 games this season.) The Gaels have two victories over RPI top-50 opponents, having beaten Utah State at home and San Diego State on a neutral court. They lost to Gonzaga three times, including an ugly 83-58 defeat in the finals of the WCC tournament. It probably will be a close call on Selection Sunday.
Arizona [19-13 (9-9), RPI: 62, SOS: 36] The Wildcats have appeared in 24 consecutive NCAA tournaments since 1985, the longest active streak in the country and second-longest in history. But that streak appears to be in serious jeopardy after Zona lost to rival Arizona State for the third time this season, 68-56, in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 tournament in Los Angeles. The Wildcats will present a compelling case with six RPI top-50 victories, having beaten Kansas, Washington, UCLA, USC and San Diego State at home and Gonzaga in Phoenix. The Wildcats were 6-10 against RPI top-50 foes and 8-12 against the top 100. But Arizona might be hurt by its 2-9 record in road games and 1-5 slide at season's end.
Wisconsin [19-12 (10-8), RPI: 45, SOS: 20] The Badgers went ice-cold in the closing minutes of their loss to Ohio State on Friday, and a victory over the Buckeyes would have locked up an at-large bid. But Wisconsin still seems to be in pretty good shape for an at-large bid. Even after a six-game losing streak at one point, UW finished 10-8 in Big Ten play. It swept games against fellow Big Ten bubble teams Michigan and Penn State but lost twice to Minnesota. Wisconsin has four RPI top-50 victories, having beaten Illinois and Ohio State at home and having swept the Wolverines. The Badgers are 4-10 against RPI top-50 opponents and 9-11 against the top 100.
Minnesota [22-10 (9-9), RPI: 42, SOS: 37] The Gophers lost seven of their last 11 games, including an eight-point loss to Michigan State on Friday. Unlike fellow bubble resident Penn State, Minnesota has one nonconference gem: a neutral-site victory over Louisville. It's the gift that just keeps giving. The Gophers were 5-8 against RPI top-50 foes, beating Illinois (home), Wisconsin (home and road) and Ohio State (home), in addition to the Cardinals. The Gophers went 3-1 against fellow Big Ten bubble teams Wisconsin and Penn State, which should help on Selection Sunday.
Penn State [22-11 (10-8), RPI: 70, SOS: 119] After trouncing Indiana in their opening-round game in the Big Ten tournament, the Nittany Lions lost to Purdue 79-65 on Friday night. Penn State didn't put up much of a fight against the Boilermakers, so it didn't provide a great lasting impression for the NCAA selection committee. But unless the NCAA just doesn't want eight Big Ten teams in its tournament, it will be hard to ignore Penn State's 10-8 finish in Big Ten play and its six victories over RPI top-50 opponents. Penn State might be penalized for its soft nonconference schedule, but its performance during conference play might be enough to get it in the 65-team field. The Nittany Lions beat Michigan State (road), Illinois (home and road), Purdue (home), Minnesota (home) and Michigan (home). On the other hand, it's hard to get past that No. 313 nonconference strength of schedule. The best win? Against No. 118 Mount St. Mary's. Yikes.
Saint Mary's [26-6 (10-4), RPI: 48, SOS: 159] Instead of sitting and watching other bubble teams try to win at-large bids, the Gaels played a regular-season game Friday night, beating Eastern Washington 85-65. Saint Mary's coach Randy Bennett didn't schedule the game until last week and wanted to use it to showcase point guard Patty Mills. Mills missed his team's final nine regular-season games after breaking his right hand, and he looked shaky in the Gaels' two games in the WCC tournament. Mills scored 19 points on 6-for-14 shooting against Eastern Washington, a 12-18 team from the Big Sky Conference. It was Saint Mary's 26th victory of the season. Only six teams with 26 wins have been left out of the NCAA field. (Creighton, Niagara and Charleston also won 26 games this season.) The Gaels have two victories over RPI top-50 opponents, having beaten Utah State at home and San Diego State on a neutral court. They lost to Gonzaga three times, including an ugly 83-58 defeat in the finals of the WCC tournament. It probably will be a close call on Selection Sunday.
Arizona [19-13 (9-9), RPI: 62, SOS: 36] The Wildcats have appeared in 24 consecutive NCAA tournaments since 1985, the longest active streak in the country and second-longest in history. But that streak appears to be in serious jeopardy after Zona lost to rival Arizona State for the third time this season, 68-56, in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 tournament in Los Angeles. The Wildcats will present a compelling case with six RPI top-50 victories, having beaten Kansas, Washington, UCLA, USC and San Diego State at home and Gonzaga in Phoenix. The Wildcats were 6-10 against RPI top-50 foes and 8-12 against the top 100. But Arizona might be hurt by its 2-9 record in road games and 1-5 slide at season's end.
Wisconsin [19-12 (10-8), RPI: 45, SOS: 20] The Badgers went ice-cold in the closing minutes of their loss to Ohio State on Friday, and a victory over the Buckeyes would have locked up an at-large bid. But Wisconsin still seems to be in pretty good shape for an at-large bid. Even after a six-game losing streak at one point, UW finished 10-8 in Big Ten play. It swept games against fellow Big Ten bubble teams Michigan and Penn State but lost twice to Minnesota. Wisconsin has four RPI top-50 victories, having beaten Illinois and Ohio State at home and having swept the Wolverines. The Badgers are 4-10 against RPI top-50 opponents and 9-11 against the top 100.
Minnesota [22-10 (9-9), RPI: 42, SOS: 37] The Gophers lost seven of their last 11 games, including an eight-point loss to Michigan State on Friday. Unlike fellow bubble resident Penn State, Minnesota has one nonconference gem: a neutral-site victory over Louisville. It's the gift that just keeps giving. The Gophers were 5-8 against RPI top-50 foes, beating Illinois (home), Wisconsin (home and road) and Ohio State (home), in addition to the Cardinals. The Gophers went 3-1 against fellow Big Ten bubble teams Wisconsin and Penn State, which should help on Selection Sunday.
Penn State [22-11 (10-8), RPI: 70, SOS: 119] After trouncing Indiana in their opening-round game in the Big Ten tournament, the Nittany Lions lost to Purdue 79-65 on Friday night. Penn State didn't put up much of a fight against the Boilermakers, so it didn't provide a great lasting impression for the NCAA selection committee. But unless the NCAA just doesn't want eight Big Ten teams in its tournament, it will be hard to ignore Penn State's 10-8 finish in Big Ten play and its six victories over RPI top-50 opponents. Penn State might be penalized for its soft nonconference schedule, but its performance during conference play might be enough to get it in the 65-team field. The Nittany Lions beat Michigan State (road), Illinois (home and road), Purdue (home), Minnesota (home) and Michigan (home). On the other hand, it's hard to get past that No. 313 nonconference strength of schedule. The best win? Against No. 118 Mount St. Mary's. Yikes.
