(46.5) JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND (-8.5)
After Jacksonville upset Pittsburgh last week, the public believes that the Jags will beat New England, and go onto the Super Bowl. I researched this matchup carefully, and after you read my scouting report, you can come up with your own conclusions. All you hear, is how good the Jacksonville defense is, and on paper they look solid. However, I took a closer look, and discovered this. In the Jags last 8 games, they faced Cleveland (Kizer), Arizona (Gabbert), Indianapolis (Brissett), Seattle (Wilson), Houston (Yates), San Francisco (Garoppolo), Tennessee (Mariota) , and Pittsburgh (Roethlisberger). As you can see, there are only three elite QB’s that the Jag defense played, and struggled. Roethlisberger scored 5 Touchdowns, Garoppolo 3 TD’s, and Wilson 3 TD’s, totaling 11 touchdowns. In addition, these three QB’s scored 110 points, and scored an average of 36.6 points per game. The Jags weaknesses on defense is, that they can’t cover Tight Ends, and pass catching backs. New England, has the players, to take advantage of this matchup. Watching the Jags defense, and their formations, They disguise their defense with a 3-4. Their front seven, has three linebackers, and they move their biggest free safety, into the fourth LB spot. Once the opposing offense comes to the line of scrimmage, if the Jags read pass, their free safety, will run back 15 yards into his safety position, and create a cover two. If the safety doesn’t leave the linebacker position, they are playing the run. With four linebackers employed, it’s difficult to gain yardage rushing the football off the edge. Where the Jags are vulnerable against the run, is between the tackles. The other weakness on defense, the Jags like to drop their corners 5 – 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage. The Patriots love to go to their underneath passing, and screen routes, when they see this type of defensive scheme. Keep in mind, the Jag defense isn’t a surprise to the Patriots. The Jags Defensive Coordinator is Gus Bradley. He was the Defensive Coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks, when the Patriots faced him in the Super bowl. Once they get the Jags corners to play up to the line, expect Brady to go on top vertically deep to Cook. New England defensively, is different on the field, than on paper. They play a defense that bends, and allows you all the yardage in the world. However, once you reach the red zone, opponents find it difficult to score touchdowns. The Pats are only allowing 18.2 points per game. So don’t think QB Bortles, will face a flat defense like Pittsburgh’s last week, and expect at least three Jag turnovers. PREDICTED SCORE: NEW ENGLAND 32 JACKSONVILLE 20, TAKE NEW ENGLAND -8 ½, AND PLAY OVER THE TOTAL 46 ½.
(38.5) MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA (+3)
Let me start with something completely different. After the Vikings last second victory over the Saints, I decided to research Playoff comebacks. Good handicappers say, that teams that won in a last second fashion, are usually flat in their next upcoming game. So the principle to this formula is, playoff games only, last second victories or comebacks, and only teams that play another game the following week. Here is the breakdown. 12/23/72, Dallas defeats SF, and lost the in the NFC Championship game the following week. 1/4/86, Miami defeats Cleveland, Miami lost to New England in their AFC Championship game, 1/21/07, Indianapolis defeats Miami 38 - 34, and goes on to win the Super Bowl. 1/5/03, SF defeats NY Giants 39-38, and lost the following game to Tampa Bay. 1/4/14, Indianapolis defeats KC 45-44 in Wild Card game, loses to New England in the AFC Divisional game. 1/3/93, Buffalo defeats Houston 41-38, and went on to lose in the Super Bowl. Bottom line: The playoff comeback record amongst these teams was 1 win, and 5 Losses. The only team to win, off a last second comeback, was the Colts, winning the Super Bowl. So in perspective, Minnesota, should come up flat, after their thrilling victory over the Saints. Now for the game. Both teams have excellent front sevens on defense. Minnesota, is slightly better than the Eagles, however, suffered a key injury too their line, and lack depth at those positions. Philadelphia, has more depth on their defensive line. In order for Philadelphia to win, is to avoid many 3 and outs on offense, go with no huddles, prevent Minnesota from subbing their defensive lineman, and establish the run. The idea here is to possess the time management on the clock, and to wear out the Viking defense by the fourth quarter. Philadelphia, has a physical offensive line, and can grind it out, and throw short passes. The first two possessions from each team, will give us the direction on which way this game is going to go. Between Quarterbacks, Keenum and Foles, the one that doesn’t feel the pressure, makes the fewest mistakes, and makes the least turnovers, is going to the Super Bowl. I am going to stay with my hunch. PREDICTED SCORE: PHILADEPHIA 21 MINNESOTA 20, TAKE PHILADELPHIA +3, AND PLAY THE TOTAL OVER 38 ½.
After Jacksonville upset Pittsburgh last week, the public believes that the Jags will beat New England, and go onto the Super Bowl. I researched this matchup carefully, and after you read my scouting report, you can come up with your own conclusions. All you hear, is how good the Jacksonville defense is, and on paper they look solid. However, I took a closer look, and discovered this. In the Jags last 8 games, they faced Cleveland (Kizer), Arizona (Gabbert), Indianapolis (Brissett), Seattle (Wilson), Houston (Yates), San Francisco (Garoppolo), Tennessee (Mariota) , and Pittsburgh (Roethlisberger). As you can see, there are only three elite QB’s that the Jag defense played, and struggled. Roethlisberger scored 5 Touchdowns, Garoppolo 3 TD’s, and Wilson 3 TD’s, totaling 11 touchdowns. In addition, these three QB’s scored 110 points, and scored an average of 36.6 points per game. The Jags weaknesses on defense is, that they can’t cover Tight Ends, and pass catching backs. New England, has the players, to take advantage of this matchup. Watching the Jags defense, and their formations, They disguise their defense with a 3-4. Their front seven, has three linebackers, and they move their biggest free safety, into the fourth LB spot. Once the opposing offense comes to the line of scrimmage, if the Jags read pass, their free safety, will run back 15 yards into his safety position, and create a cover two. If the safety doesn’t leave the linebacker position, they are playing the run. With four linebackers employed, it’s difficult to gain yardage rushing the football off the edge. Where the Jags are vulnerable against the run, is between the tackles. The other weakness on defense, the Jags like to drop their corners 5 – 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage. The Patriots love to go to their underneath passing, and screen routes, when they see this type of defensive scheme. Keep in mind, the Jag defense isn’t a surprise to the Patriots. The Jags Defensive Coordinator is Gus Bradley. He was the Defensive Coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks, when the Patriots faced him in the Super bowl. Once they get the Jags corners to play up to the line, expect Brady to go on top vertically deep to Cook. New England defensively, is different on the field, than on paper. They play a defense that bends, and allows you all the yardage in the world. However, once you reach the red zone, opponents find it difficult to score touchdowns. The Pats are only allowing 18.2 points per game. So don’t think QB Bortles, will face a flat defense like Pittsburgh’s last week, and expect at least three Jag turnovers. PREDICTED SCORE: NEW ENGLAND 32 JACKSONVILLE 20, TAKE NEW ENGLAND -8 ½, AND PLAY OVER THE TOTAL 46 ½.
(38.5) MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA (+3)
Let me start with something completely different. After the Vikings last second victory over the Saints, I decided to research Playoff comebacks. Good handicappers say, that teams that won in a last second fashion, are usually flat in their next upcoming game. So the principle to this formula is, playoff games only, last second victories or comebacks, and only teams that play another game the following week. Here is the breakdown. 12/23/72, Dallas defeats SF, and lost the in the NFC Championship game the following week. 1/4/86, Miami defeats Cleveland, Miami lost to New England in their AFC Championship game, 1/21/07, Indianapolis defeats Miami 38 - 34, and goes on to win the Super Bowl. 1/5/03, SF defeats NY Giants 39-38, and lost the following game to Tampa Bay. 1/4/14, Indianapolis defeats KC 45-44 in Wild Card game, loses to New England in the AFC Divisional game. 1/3/93, Buffalo defeats Houston 41-38, and went on to lose in the Super Bowl. Bottom line: The playoff comeback record amongst these teams was 1 win, and 5 Losses. The only team to win, off a last second comeback, was the Colts, winning the Super Bowl. So in perspective, Minnesota, should come up flat, after their thrilling victory over the Saints. Now for the game. Both teams have excellent front sevens on defense. Minnesota, is slightly better than the Eagles, however, suffered a key injury too their line, and lack depth at those positions. Philadelphia, has more depth on their defensive line. In order for Philadelphia to win, is to avoid many 3 and outs on offense, go with no huddles, prevent Minnesota from subbing their defensive lineman, and establish the run. The idea here is to possess the time management on the clock, and to wear out the Viking defense by the fourth quarter. Philadelphia, has a physical offensive line, and can grind it out, and throw short passes. The first two possessions from each team, will give us the direction on which way this game is going to go. Between Quarterbacks, Keenum and Foles, the one that doesn’t feel the pressure, makes the fewest mistakes, and makes the least turnovers, is going to the Super Bowl. I am going to stay with my hunch. PREDICTED SCORE: PHILADEPHIA 21 MINNESOTA 20, TAKE PHILADELPHIA +3, AND PLAY THE TOTAL OVER 38 ½.
