BROOKLYNWORM’S NFL WINNING FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK #10
JACKSONVILLE AT DETROIT
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DETROIT IS PROBABLY THE WORST FOOTBALL TEAM IN THE NFL. THE JACKSONVILLE JAGS ARE HEADED IN THE WRONG DIRECTION, AFTER LOSING TO THE BENGALS LAST WEEK. THE JAGS NOW CONVINCED MR THAT THEY HAVE NO OFFENSIVE LINE. WHEN YOUR TWO EXPLOSIVE WEAPONS JONES-DREW, AND TAYLOR ARE HELD TO A TOTAL OF 53 YARDS VS A 28<SUP>TH</SUP> RANKED RUSH DEFENSE. THE JAGS O-LINE IS BANGED UP AND INJURED, AND CANNOT OPEN THE HOLES. THE SECONDARY IS PLAYING POORLY, AND THE REASON IS THAT THEY FAIL TO PRESSURE THE OPPOSSING QB, AND HAVE ONLY 11 SACKS ON THE SEASON. THEIR QB GERRARD HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT, AND MAY HAVE HAD ONLY TWO GOOD GAMES SINCE THE PRE SEASON BEGAN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THEIR TOP WIDE RECEIVER MATT JONES MAY BE SUSPENDED AT ANYTIME FOR VIOLATING THE NFL’S DRUG POLICY. BESIDES INJURIES, AND FAILURE TO PLAY UP TO EXPECTATIONS, THERE HAS BEEN TURMOIL IN THE CLUB HOUSE. HEAD COACH DEL RIO SUSPENDED THEIR TOP TACKLER DURING THE WEEK LB MIKE PETERSON FOR INSUBORDINATION, AND THERE IS A QUESTION ON HOW HE WILL BE USED ON SUNDAY. THEN THERE IS THE INJURY TO THEIR OTHER TOP DEFENSEMAN DT JOHN HENDERSON WHO INJURED HIS KNEE LAST WEEK AND IS OUT.<o></o>
SINCE THE LIONS FIRED GM MATT MILLEN, THE TEAM HAS PLAYED BETTER FOOTBALL THE PAST FOUR WEEKS. GO LOOK AT THEIR GAME BY GAME RECORD VS THE SPREAD, AND THE COMPETIVENESS THEY BROUGHT TO THEIR OPPONENTS FOR MORE DETAILS. ANYHOW, WITH THE JAGS REELING, DETROIT HAS TALENTED WIDE RECEIVERS THAT THE JAGS CANNOT COVER. WHO EVER REPLACES QB ORLOVSKY, SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUY TIME TO THROW THE BALL DOWN THE FIELD DUE TO THE JAGS PUNCHLESS PASS RUSH. I AM NOT A BIG FAN OF THIS GAME FOR EITHER SIDE, BUT I KNOW NOT TO PLAY JACKSONVILLE AND LAY THE POINTS.<o></o>
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43.5 JACKSONVILLE 23<o></o>
+6.5 DETROIT 24<o></o>
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MONEY LINE: DETROIT (UPSET)<o></o>
ATS: DETROIT +6.5<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: OVER 43.5<o></o>
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BALTIMORE AT HOUSTON
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THE RAVENS ARE A HOT TEAM, AND ARE –1 POINT FAVS ON THE ROAD VS HOUSTON. BALTIMORE’S SECONDARY IS ALL BANGED UP, ABD CANNOT COVER THE TEXAN WIDE RECEIVERS. IN ADDITION, BALTIMORE DEFENSIVELY WILL HAVE PROBLEMS MAKING ADJUSTMENTS VS THE PASS, SINCE THEY HAVE TO BE CONCERNED OF THE TEXAN THREAT OUT OF THE BACKFIELD, STEVE SLATON. BALTIMORE’S QB FLACCO HAS BEEN PLAYING GREAT FOOTBALL AS OF LATE, AND CONTINUES TO MATURE AS AN NFL QB. HE WILL FACE ONE OF THE WORST SECONDARIES IN THE NFL, AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LIGHT UP THE TEXAN 30<SUP>TH</SUP> RANKED PASS DEFENSE. THE RAVEN RUNNING ATTACK WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO ATTACK THE TEXAN 19<SUP>TH</SUP> RANKED RUSH DEFENSE. OVERALL, I AM GOING TO LEAN WITH HOUSTON FOR THE FOLLOWINGS REASONS.<o></o>
#1. TEXANS PLAY WELL AT HOME<o></o>
#2. THIS IS MORE A MUST WIN FOR THE TEXANS, 1 GAME OUT OF WILDCARD POSSIBLY.<o></o>
#3. THE RAVENS ARE OFF A TOUGH ROAD WIN, NOW PLAY ON THE ROAD AGAIN, AND MAYBE FOCUSED PLAYING THE NY GIANTS NEXT WEEK.<o></o>
#4. THE PUBLIC’S MONEY 62% TO 80% IS FAVORING BALTIMORE.<o></o>
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43.0 BALTIMORE 23<o></o>
+1.0 HOUSTON 27<o></o>
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MONEYLINE: HOUSTON<o></o>
ATS: HOUSTON +1.0<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: OVER 43.0 (THIS IS A BEST BET SCORE SHOULD BE HIGH BOTH TEAMS LACK PASS DEFENSES, AND HAVE ENOUGH WEAPONS TO SCORE)<o></o>
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SEATTLE AT MIAMI
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HERE IS ONE OF MY FAVORITE TRENDS THAT WINS. A WEST COAST TEAM TRAVELING EAST TO PLAY AT 1:00 PM EASTERN STANDARD TIME. LOOK THIS TREND UP, IT WILL SURPRISE YOU. JUST ASK SAN DIEGO. ANYWAY, THE SEATTLE’S 2008 SEASON WENT UP IN SMOKE SINCE WEEK #1 WITH THE RASH OF INJURIES TO THEIR KEY OFFENSIVE, AND DEFENSIVE STARTERS. NOW THAT HOLMGREN IS A “LAME DUCK” COACH AND WILL NOT BE BACK, PLAYERS BEGIN TO EASE UP WITH THEIR INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE LOSING. BACK UP QB SENECA WALLACE SUCKS AS A STARTER. HE HAS ONLY A 5.8 YPA , AND STANDS IN THE POCKET LIKE A DEER IN HEADLIGHTS, AND HASN’T A CLUE ON HOW TO SCRAMBLE TO AVOID A PASS RUSH. MIAMI’S SECONDARY MAY STINK, BUT THEY HAVE PORTER, AND ROTH TO PROVIDE EXTREAM PRESSURE FROM THE OUTSIDE. SEATTLE’S SECONDARY IS ALSO USELESS, AND QB PENNINGTON SHOULD BE ABLE TO PICK THEM APART WITH SHORT PASSES LIKE HE DID LAST WEEK VS DENVER’S INJURED RIDDLED SECONDARY FOR 281 YARDS. SEATTLE IS 8-14 ATS ON THE ROAD SINCE 2006. MY ONLY PROBLEM TAKING MIAMI IN THIS GAME IS THAT THEY ARE LAYING –9.5 POINTS AS A FAV, AND THE PUBLIC’S MONEY IS 50-70% IN FAVOR OF THEIR SIDE. DON’T LIKE IT WHEN A LAST PLACE TEAM IS FAVORED BY SO MUCH.
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42.5 SEATTLE 17<o></o>
-9.5 MIAMI 23<o></o>
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MONEYLINE: MIAMI (BEST BET ONLY THIS PLAY)<o></o>
ATS: SEATTLE +9.5 (NO PLAY)<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 42.5 (NO PLAY)<o></o>
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TENNESSEE AT CHICAGO
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THIS IS A TOUGH GAME TO CALL. I WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO TENNESSEE SINCE REX GROSSMAN HAS REPLACED THE INJURED ORTON AT QUATERBACK. I CALL GROSSMAN “MR. TURNOVER”. YOU JUST DON’T KNOW WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN HE PLAYS, HE’S TOO ERRATIC, AND FORCES PASSES INTO COVERAGE. HE PERFORMS LIKE THIS ON SUNDAY, THE TITANS ELITE SECONDARY WILL DESTROY THE BEARS. HOWEVER, I STILL THINK THE BEARS CAN KEEP THIS GAME CLOSE, FOR ONE REASON. I NOTED THE PAST TWO CONSECUTIVE GAMES, THE TITANS EXPLOSIVE RUNNING ATTACK THAT WAS TO DESTROY INDIANAPOLIS, AND GREEN BAY’S POORLY RANKED RUSH DEFENSES WAS STOPPED WITHOUT 8 MEN IN THE BOX. CHICAGO HAS A GOOD ENOUGH FRONT SEVEN TO CONTAIN THE RUN, AND MAY PLAY 8 MEN IN THE BOX TO FORCE TITAN QB COLLINS TO PASS INTO COVERAGE. EXPECT CHICAGO TO ALSO STEP IT UP A NOTCH AND PLAY WITH MORE INTENSITY TO COVER FOR THE LOSS OF THEIR BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYER, SO THAT THEY DON’T PUT THE GAME SQUARELY ON REX GROSSMAN’S SHOULDERS TO WIN THE GAME. I DON’T KNOW WHY THE TITANS ARE ONLY –3.0 FAVS, AND EVEN THOUGH THE MONEY IS ON TENNESSEE TO COVER, I WOULD HAVE TO AGREE. TENNESSEE HAS PLAYED ERRORLESS FOOTBALL, AND WON LIKE 11 STRAIGHT REGULAR SEASON GAMES. THE ARE SOUNDLY COACHED, AND DON’T BEAT THEMSELVES. ALSO CONSIDER THIS POINT . THE TITANS HAVE LISTED BULLUCK, AND VANDERBOSCH AS PROBABLE FOR SUNDAY. IF THEY PLAY, AND ARE AT 100 %, I CANT SEE THEM LOSING.
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38.5 TENNESSEE 20
+3.0 CHICAGO 17
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MONEYLINE: TENNESSEE<o></o>
ATS: TENNESSEE –3.0<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 38.5<o></o>
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RECOMMEND ( NO PLAY ACROSS THE BOARD)<o></o>
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NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA
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I REALLY LIKE ATLANTA IN THIS SPOT. ATLANTA’S QB RYAN SHOULD BE ABLE TO PASSTHE BALL DOWNFIELD WITH LITTLE RESISTANCE FROM A DECLINING NEW ORLEAN SAINT SECONDARY. IN ADDITION, THE FALCONS RB MICHAEL TURNER SHOULD RUN AMUCK ON THE NEW ORLEAN FRONT SEVEN SINCE THEY HAVE SUFFERED NUMEROUS INJURIES, AND THEIR LINEBACKERS HAVE BEEN A “NO SHOW” THIS SEASON. RB TURNER HAS HIS BEST GAMES VS WEAK RUSH DEFENSES, AND I EXPECT ANOTHER HUGE GAME FROM HIM IN THIS SPOT. WHAT EVEN MAKES THING WORSE FOR THE SAINTS, THEY LOST THEIR BEST SACK LEADER LAST WEEK TO INJURY, AND THEY ARE LEFT WITH NO PASS RUSH. THIS WILL GIVE THE YOUNG QB RYAN TO SIT IN THE POCKET , AND PICK HIS SPOTS. THE SAINTS MAY HAVE NO DEFENSE, BUT THEY HAVE THE WEAPONS TO SCORE POINTS ON OFFENSE. QB DREW BREES SHOULD MANAGE TO PUT AT LEAST 20 OR MORE POINTS ON THE BOARD DESPITE ATLANTA’S EXCELLENT PASS RUSH, FLANKED BY TWO OF THE BEST CORNERBACKS IN THE NFL. THE WEAKNESS OF THE FALCONS IS STOPPING THE RUN. ATLANTA RANKS 26<SUP>TH</SUP> ON DEFENSE VS THE RUSH, BUT THE SAINTS DO NOT HAVE THE PERSONEL TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS MATCHUP SINCE THEIR RUNNING GAME IS INCONSISTENT. WITH THE PUBLIC’S MONEY ON THE SAINTS (56%) , I LOVE THIS SPOT FOR THE FALCONS ONLY LAYING –1 POINT.<o></o>
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50.0 NEW ORLEANS 24<o></o>
-1.0 ATLANTA 27<o></o>
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MONEYLINE: ATLANTA (BEST BET)<o></o>
ATS: ATLANTA –1.0 (BEST BET)<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: OVER 50.0<o></o>
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GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA
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WARNING !, THIS MAYBE A TRAP PLAY. DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY GREEN BAY IS THE DOG IN THIS GAME FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS.
PACKERS QB AARON RODGERS HAS BEEN RED HOT SINCE HIS RETURN FROM INJURY. HE HAS SINCE COMPLETED 67% OF HIS PASSES,1,021 YARDS, AND 7 TD’S. NOW RODGERS GOES AGAINST A CRAPPY SECONDARY, THAT CANT DEFEND HIS TOP RECEIVERS. IN MOST CASES TEAMS FIRST TRY TO ESTABLISH THE RUN BEFORE THEY OPEN UP THE PASS. IN THIS SITUATION IT WILL BE THE OPPOSITE FOR RB RYAN GRANT. RODGERS WILL ESTABLISH THE PASS FIRST, AND THIS SHOULD OPEN UP THE VIKINGS 4<SUP>TH</SUP> RANK RUSH DEFENSE TO GIVE THE PACK OFFENSIVE BALANCE. RECALL LAST WEEK, VS TENNESEE’S TOP RUSH NFL DEFENSE. RYAN GRANT RAN FOR 86 YARDS ON 20 CARRIES, FOR 4.3 YDS PER CARRY.THE PACK WILL TRY TO DUPLICATE THE SAME. THE VIKINGS ON OFFENSE ALL FALLS ON THE SHOULDERS OF QB ADRIAN PETERSON MOVING THE CHAINS ON THE GROUND. THE VIKES HAVE NO OTHER PLAYMAKERS, AND CANT GET THE BALL DOWNFIELD WITH QB GUS FREROTTE. I EXPECT GB TO PLAY 8 IN THE BOX ON DEFENSE, SHUT THE RUN DOWN, AND FORCE THE OLD TIMER TO THROW DEEP INTO THEIR COVERAGE . WITH ALL THAT SOLID INFORMATION SAID. REMEMBER, GREEN BAY IS THE DOG IN THIS SPOT, AND THE PUBLIC ALSO THINKS SO WITH 54% TO 63% OF THE MONEY BEING WAGERED ON THEM. <o></o>
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44.5 GREEN BAY 24<o></o>
-2.5 MINNESOTA 23<o></o>
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MONEYLINE: GREEN BAY<o></o>
ATS: GREEN BAY (BEST BET-ONLY TEASE PLAY IT SAFE TRAP LINE)<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: OVER 44.5<o></o>
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ST LOUIS AT NEW YORK JETS
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I DON’T REALLY LIKE THIS PLAY, BUT LET JUST SUMMARIZE THE WAY I SEE THIS GAME. ON ONE SIDE YOU HAVE THE ST LOUIS RAMS THAT HAVE TROUBLE PLAYING ON THE ROAD, WITH A POOR PASS DEFENSE, A HORRID RUSH DEFENSE, AND INJURIES TO ALL THEIR RUNNING BACKS WITH STARTER STEVEN JACKSON LISTED AS QUESTIONABLE FOR SUNDAY’S GAME.WITHOUT A HEALTHY JACKSON, IT COULD BE A LONG DAY FOR QB BULGER. LAST WEEK BULGER PLAYED TERRIBLE, AND FOUGHT WITH THE MEDIA. THE RAMS WERE TOTALLY EMBARRASSED. PROFESIONAL PRIDE MAY KICK IN WHEN THEY FACE THE JETS WITH 9.5 POINTS BEING SPOTTED IN THEIR FAVOR. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE JETS ON PAPER SHOULD WIN THIS GAME, BUT IN REALITY, WILL THEY BE FOCUSED AND READY TO PLAY AWFULL RAM FOOTBALL TEAM ON SUNDAY, OR WILL THEY BE MORE WORRIED AND LOOKING AHEAD TO THE PATRIOT MATCHUP IN 4 DAYS?. WHAT WILL QB BRETT FAVRE DO?. MR GUNSLINGER ALMOST COST THEM THEIR LAST TWO GAMES VS KC AND BUFFALO WITH HIS MANY INTERCEPTIONS. I KNOW EVERYBODY MAKES EXCUSES FOR HIM STATING THAT IT IS HIS STYLE. HOWEVER, “I” ISN’T IN TEAM, AND HE MUST STOP FORCING PASSES INTO COVERAGE WHEN THE RECEIVER ISN’T OPENED, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE AHEAD AND NEED TO PLAY MORE CONSERVATIVE. I CAN SEE FARVE THROWING 3 TD’S VS THE RAMS, AND AT THE SAME TIME THROW 3 INT’S. SEE MY POINT. SO EVEN IF THE JETS WIN, WILL THEY COVER?. THAT’S WHY I PASS ON THIS GAME.
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43.5 ST LOUIS 17<o></o>
-9.5 NEW YORK JETS 24<o></o>
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MONEYLINE: NY JETS<o></o>
ATS: ST LOUIS +9.5<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 43.5<o></o>
( NO PLAY ACROSS THE BOARD)<o></o>
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BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND
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ANOTHER TIGHT GAME TO CALL. WHEN I LOOK UP MOST POWER RATING SYSTEMS, THE BILLS AND PATS ARE PRATICALLY EVEN MATCHED WITH NEW ENGLAND GRADED WITH A SLIGHT EDGE. THE BILLS HAVE LOST 3 OF THEIR LAST 4 GAMES, AND HAVE AVERAGED 2.8 TURNOVERS PER GAME. BOTH TEAMS WIN COLUMNS DON’T EQUAL THEIR SUB PAR PLAY THIS SEASON. NE IS WITHOUT THEIR 3 TOP RB’S, AND HAVE TO DEPEND ON THEIR BENCH WITH GREEN-ELLIS, AND KEVIN FAULK RUNNING THE BALL. THEY WERE ABLE TO DO SO THEIR LAST 3 GAMES SINCE THEIR OPPONENTS DENVER, ST LOUIS, AND INDIANAPOLIS RANKED POORLY DEFENSIVELY VS THE RUSH. THE BILLS ARE A DIFFERENT STORY. THEY ARE AN ESTABLISHED STOP UNIT, AND THEIR FRONT SEVEN IS SOLID VS THE RUSH. THE BILLS GAME PLAN MAY BE TO PLANT 8 DEFENDERS IN THE BOX, TAKE AWAY THE PATS RUNNING GAME, AND FORCE QB CASSEL INTO THIRD AND LONG SITUATIONS. THIS CAN BE MADE POSSIBLE IF QB CASSEL CONTINUES NOT TO TRY AND GET THE BALL DEEP ON VERTICLE PASS PLAYS, AND FAILS TO STRETCH THE BILLS DEFENSE. THE PATS ON RUSH DEFENSE HAVE BEEN SOLID UP FRONT, AND HAVEN’T ALLOWED A 100 YD RUSHER SINCE WEEK #3. BUFFALO’S TOP RUNNER MASHAWN LYNCH HAS BEEN STRUGGLING. THE PATS SECONDARY IS THEIR ACHILLES HEEL, AND CAN GET BEAT LIKE A DRUM. HOWEVER BILLS QB EDWARDS HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT, AND HAS PLAYED SLOPPY OF LATE. THIS A DIVISIONAL GAME THAT WILL BE PHYSICAL AND SHOULD COME DOWN TO THE FINAL SECONDS.
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41.5 BUFFALO 17<o></o>
-4.0 NEW ENGLAND 20<o></o>
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MONEYLINE: NEW ENGLAND<o></o>
ATS: BUFFALO +4.0 (BEST BET TEASE THE LINE ONLY)<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 41.5<o></o>
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CAROLINA AT OAKLAND
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WE ALL KNOW THE OAKLAND RAIDERS SUCK, PLAIN AND SIMPLE. BUT WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED SINCE LAST SUNDAY, MAY MAKE THE RAIDERS A BETTER TEAM THIS SUNDAY. 69% TO 82% OF THE PUBLIC’S MONEY IS FOLLOWING THE PANTHERS, AND THEY ARE LAYING DOUBLE DIGITS ON THE ROAD. AFTER THE RAIDERS WERE SHUT OUT BY ATLANTA LAST WEEK, THE TEAM AND THE ORGANIZATION WAS EMBARRASSED. USUALLY PRO PLAYERS RESPOND THE FOLLOWING WEEK MORE GAME READY AND FOCUSED AS A MATTER OF PRIDE. IN ADDITION, IT DIDN’T HURT WHEN OWNER AL DAVIS STARTED CLEANING HOUSE, AND GOT RID OF HALL, WALKER, AND KELLY DURING THE WEEK AND SENT A MESSAGE TO HIS PLAYERS. BOTTOM LINE, YOU DON’T PERFORM, YOUR OUT OF A JOB. LASTLY, CAROLINA ON PAPER WON THIS GAME HANDILY BEFORE IT WAS PLAYED. HOWEVER, HOW FOCUSED WILL THEY BE IN THIS GAME. YOU KNOW THAT THE PANTHERS WILL TAKE THE RAIDERS FOR GRANTED . BESIDES THIS GAME DOESN’T MEAN AS MUCH TO THE PANTHERS ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS A NON DIVISIONAL GAME.
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37.5 CAROLINA 24<o></o>
+10.0 OAKLAND 17<o></o>
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MONEYLINE: CAROLINA<o></o>
ATS: OAKLAND +10.0<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: OVER 37.5<o></o>
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INDIANAPOLIS AT PITTSBURGH
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THE COLTS LAST WEEK COULDN’T CONTAIN THE PATRIOT RUNNING GAME EVEN WITH BOB SANDERS BACK IN THE LINE UP, AND 3 OF NEW ENGLAND’S TOP RUNNING BACKS OUT. ANYTIME IT SEEMED WHEN IT WAS THIRD DOWN AND THEY NEEDED TO CONVERT, THEY JUST HANDED THE BALL OFF TO ONE OF THEIR 3<SUP>RD</SUP> STRING BACKS FOR FIRST DOWNS. NOW THE COLTS FACE A TEAM THAT LIKES TO RUN, AND THEY HAVE THE RUSHERS TO DO IT. THE STEELERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHRED THE COLT FRONT SEVEN. IN ADDITION, AN EFFECTIVE RUNNING GAME WILL TAKE THE PRESSURE OFF THEIR OFFENSIVE LINE AND QB ROETHLISBERGER, AND WILL ENABLE PLAY ACTION PASSING PLAYS TO STRETCH THE BALL DOWNFIELD. IT ALSO HELPS THE PITTSBURGH OFFENSIVE LINE TO KNOW THAT THE COLTS ONLY HAVE 10 SACKS ON THE SEASON. THE COLTS OFFENSE ALL SEASON LOOK OUT OF SYNC. ESPECIALLY LAST WEEK VS NE. MANNING WENT UP AGAINST A LOUSY PATRIOT SECONDARY AND DIDN’T EVEN CHALLENGE THEM DEEP. RB JOSEPH ADDAI PLAYED POORLY AND WAS NO FACTOR, THUS NO RUNNING GAME, AND WR HARRISON DROPPED BALLS, AND LOOKS LIKE HE IS WASHED UP. WITH THE COLTS SLUMPING ON OFFENSE, IT DOESN’T HELP THE COLT CHANCES VS PITTSBURGH 3-4 DEFENSE. IT IS A KNOWN FACT THAT MANNING HATES FACING A TOUGH 3-4 DEFENSE, AND HAS STRUGGLED AGAINST THAT DEFENSIVE SCHEME ALL OF HIS CAREER EVEN WHEN ON TOP OF HIS GAME. <o></o>
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40.0 INDIANAPOLIS 20<o></o>
-4.0 PITTSBURGH 27<o></o>
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MONEYLINE: PITTSBURGH <o></o>
ATS: PITTSBURGH –4.0 (BEST BET SU, AGAINST SPREAD, MONEYLINE)<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: OVER 40.0<o></o>
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KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO
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ALTHOUGH WE ALL KNOW THAT KC IS A BAD FOOTBALL TEAM, ESPECIALLY AFTER BLOWING A 21 POINT LEAD LAST WEEK. HOWEVER, DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH THEY HAVE BEEN GETTING PRODUCTION OUT OF THEIR 3<SUP>RD</SUP> STRING QB TYLER THIGPEN. THIS GUY IS RED HOT, WITH A 63.9% PASS PERCENTAGE, AN OVER 7.0 YPA, 3 TD’S , NO INT’S OR FUMBLES. SO THIGPEN SHOULD BE ABLE TO CARRY THESE NUMBERS OVER TO THE SD GAME. THE CHARGERS ARE INCONSISTENT ON DEFENSE . THEY RANK 18<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE PASS, AND THEY HAVE NO PASS RUSH. IN ADDITION, KC SHOULD BE ABLE TO RUN ON SAN DIEGO’S RUSH DEFENSE THAT RANKS 21<SUP>ST</SUP>. SAN DIEGO ON OFFENSE WITH THEIR WEAPONS WILL SCORE MANY POINTS VS THE CHIEFS ENEPT DEFENSE OVERALL. THE CHIEFS DEFENSE IS NON EXISTENT RANKING 32<SUP>ND</SUP> VS THE RUN, AND 24<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE PASS. I SEE THIS A CLOSE , HATED, RIVILARY MATCHUP, AND I EXPECT THE GAME TO BE CLOSE. SAN DIEGO IS NOT THE SAME TEAM AS IN 2007, SINCE THIS PRE SEASON, THEY HAVE LOST MANY TOP PLAYERS TO INJURY ON DEFENSE, AND THEY ARE PLAYING BANGED UP. THIS FACTOR SHOULD KEEP KC IN THE CONTEST.<o></o>
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47.5 KANSAS CITY 23<o></o>
-15.0 SAN DIEGO 29<o></o>
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MONEYLINE: SAN DIEGO<o></o>
ATS: KANSAS CITY +15.0 ( BEST BET- EVEN MORE VALUE IF YOU SHADE)<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: OVER 47.6 (THIS IS A BEST BET THIS WILL BE A HIGH SCORING GAME)<o></o>
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NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA
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WOW, WHEN I EVALUATE THIS MATCHUP I SEE A HATED DIVISIONAL RIVALRY GAME, WITH TALENTED PLAYERS ON BOTH SIDES , WITH EXCELLENT DEFENSES AND OFFENSES. BY COMPARISON THESE TEAMS ARE EVENLY MATCHED, AND YET PHILADELPHIA IS A 3 POINT FAVORITE. AFTER MUCH RESEARCH ON THIS GAME, I CAME ACROSS AN INTRESTING FACT. So, what's the fundamental difference between New York and Philadelphia? The ability to win in the clutch. Check out these figures for proof:
Since the 2006 playoffs, the Eagles are 1-7 in games decided by four points or less. The Giants, on the other hand, are 6-2 in those situations in the same time span, including 3-0 in last year's unbelievable postseason run.<o></o>
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I ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE BETTER HEAD COACH IS ON THE GIANTS SIDE. ENOUGH SAID YOU KNOW WHO I LIKE.<o></o>
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43.5 NY GIANTS 23<o></o>
-3.0 PHILADELPHIA 20<o></o>
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MONEYLINE: NY GIANTS<o></o>
ATS: NY GIANTS +3.0 (BEST BET SHADE THE G MEN WITH A TEASER)<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 43.5<o></o>
BROOKLYNWORM’S BEST BETS
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STRAIGHT UP ATS PLAYS<o></o>
ATLANTA –1.0
PITTSBURGH –4.0<o></o>
KANSAS CITY/SD PLAY OVER 47.5<o></o>
BALTIMORE/HOUSTON PLAY OVER 43.0<o></o>
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MONEYLINE PLAYS
MIAMI
PITTSBURGH<o></o>
ATLANTA<o></o>
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TEASER 10 POINTS 3 TEAMS
KANSAS CITY +25.0
NY GIANTS +13.0<o></o>
BUFFALO +14.0<o></o>
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TEASER 7 POINTS 5 TEAMS
GREEN BAY +12.5
BUFFALO +11.0<o></o>
PITTSBURGH +6.0<o></o>
KANSAS CITY +22.0<o></o>
NY GIANTS +10.0<o></o>
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GOOD LUCK EVERYONE<o></o>
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BROOKLYNWORM<o></o>
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></o>DETROIT IS PROBABLY THE WORST FOOTBALL TEAM IN THE NFL. THE JACKSONVILLE JAGS ARE HEADED IN THE WRONG DIRECTION, AFTER LOSING TO THE BENGALS LAST WEEK. THE JAGS NOW CONVINCED MR THAT THEY HAVE NO OFFENSIVE LINE. WHEN YOUR TWO EXPLOSIVE WEAPONS JONES-DREW, AND TAYLOR ARE HELD TO A TOTAL OF 53 YARDS VS A 28<SUP>TH</SUP> RANKED RUSH DEFENSE. THE JAGS O-LINE IS BANGED UP AND INJURED, AND CANNOT OPEN THE HOLES. THE SECONDARY IS PLAYING POORLY, AND THE REASON IS THAT THEY FAIL TO PRESSURE THE OPPOSSING QB, AND HAVE ONLY 11 SACKS ON THE SEASON. THEIR QB GERRARD HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT, AND MAY HAVE HAD ONLY TWO GOOD GAMES SINCE THE PRE SEASON BEGAN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THEIR TOP WIDE RECEIVER MATT JONES MAY BE SUSPENDED AT ANYTIME FOR VIOLATING THE NFL’S DRUG POLICY. BESIDES INJURIES, AND FAILURE TO PLAY UP TO EXPECTATIONS, THERE HAS BEEN TURMOIL IN THE CLUB HOUSE. HEAD COACH DEL RIO SUSPENDED THEIR TOP TACKLER DURING THE WEEK LB MIKE PETERSON FOR INSUBORDINATION, AND THERE IS A QUESTION ON HOW HE WILL BE USED ON SUNDAY. THEN THERE IS THE INJURY TO THEIR OTHER TOP DEFENSEMAN DT JOHN HENDERSON WHO INJURED HIS KNEE LAST WEEK AND IS OUT.<o
></o>SINCE THE LIONS FIRED GM MATT MILLEN, THE TEAM HAS PLAYED BETTER FOOTBALL THE PAST FOUR WEEKS. GO LOOK AT THEIR GAME BY GAME RECORD VS THE SPREAD, AND THE COMPETIVENESS THEY BROUGHT TO THEIR OPPONENTS FOR MORE DETAILS. ANYHOW, WITH THE JAGS REELING, DETROIT HAS TALENTED WIDE RECEIVERS THAT THE JAGS CANNOT COVER. WHO EVER REPLACES QB ORLOVSKY, SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUY TIME TO THROW THE BALL DOWN THE FIELD DUE TO THE JAGS PUNCHLESS PASS RUSH. I AM NOT A BIG FAN OF THIS GAME FOR EITHER SIDE, BUT I KNOW NOT TO PLAY JACKSONVILLE AND LAY THE POINTS.<o
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></o>43.5 JACKSONVILLE 23<o
></o>+6.5 DETROIT 24<o
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></o>MONEY LINE: DETROIT (UPSET)<o
></o>ATS: DETROIT +6.5<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: OVER 43.5<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>BALTIMORE AT HOUSTON
<o
></o>THE RAVENS ARE A HOT TEAM, AND ARE –1 POINT FAVS ON THE ROAD VS HOUSTON. BALTIMORE’S SECONDARY IS ALL BANGED UP, ABD CANNOT COVER THE TEXAN WIDE RECEIVERS. IN ADDITION, BALTIMORE DEFENSIVELY WILL HAVE PROBLEMS MAKING ADJUSTMENTS VS THE PASS, SINCE THEY HAVE TO BE CONCERNED OF THE TEXAN THREAT OUT OF THE BACKFIELD, STEVE SLATON. BALTIMORE’S QB FLACCO HAS BEEN PLAYING GREAT FOOTBALL AS OF LATE, AND CONTINUES TO MATURE AS AN NFL QB. HE WILL FACE ONE OF THE WORST SECONDARIES IN THE NFL, AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LIGHT UP THE TEXAN 30<SUP>TH</SUP> RANKED PASS DEFENSE. THE RAVEN RUNNING ATTACK WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO ATTACK THE TEXAN 19<SUP>TH</SUP> RANKED RUSH DEFENSE. OVERALL, I AM GOING TO LEAN WITH HOUSTON FOR THE FOLLOWINGS REASONS.<o
></o>#1. TEXANS PLAY WELL AT HOME<o
></o>#2. THIS IS MORE A MUST WIN FOR THE TEXANS, 1 GAME OUT OF WILDCARD POSSIBLY.<o
></o>#3. THE RAVENS ARE OFF A TOUGH ROAD WIN, NOW PLAY ON THE ROAD AGAIN, AND MAYBE FOCUSED PLAYING THE NY GIANTS NEXT WEEK.<o
></o>#4. THE PUBLIC’S MONEY 62% TO 80% IS FAVORING BALTIMORE.<o
></o><o
></o>43.0 BALTIMORE 23<o
></o>+1.0 HOUSTON 27<o
></o><o
></o>MONEYLINE: HOUSTON<o
></o>ATS: HOUSTON +1.0<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: OVER 43.0 (THIS IS A BEST BET SCORE SHOULD BE HIGH BOTH TEAMS LACK PASS DEFENSES, AND HAVE ENOUGH WEAPONS TO SCORE)<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>SEATTLE AT MIAMI
<o
></o>HERE IS ONE OF MY FAVORITE TRENDS THAT WINS. A WEST COAST TEAM TRAVELING EAST TO PLAY AT 1:00 PM EASTERN STANDARD TIME. LOOK THIS TREND UP, IT WILL SURPRISE YOU. JUST ASK SAN DIEGO. ANYWAY, THE SEATTLE’S 2008 SEASON WENT UP IN SMOKE SINCE WEEK #1 WITH THE RASH OF INJURIES TO THEIR KEY OFFENSIVE, AND DEFENSIVE STARTERS. NOW THAT HOLMGREN IS A “LAME DUCK” COACH AND WILL NOT BE BACK, PLAYERS BEGIN TO EASE UP WITH THEIR INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE LOSING. BACK UP QB SENECA WALLACE SUCKS AS A STARTER. HE HAS ONLY A 5.8 YPA , AND STANDS IN THE POCKET LIKE A DEER IN HEADLIGHTS, AND HASN’T A CLUE ON HOW TO SCRAMBLE TO AVOID A PASS RUSH. MIAMI’S SECONDARY MAY STINK, BUT THEY HAVE PORTER, AND ROTH TO PROVIDE EXTREAM PRESSURE FROM THE OUTSIDE. SEATTLE’S SECONDARY IS ALSO USELESS, AND QB PENNINGTON SHOULD BE ABLE TO PICK THEM APART WITH SHORT PASSES LIKE HE DID LAST WEEK VS DENVER’S INJURED RIDDLED SECONDARY FOR 281 YARDS. SEATTLE IS 8-14 ATS ON THE ROAD SINCE 2006. MY ONLY PROBLEM TAKING MIAMI IN THIS GAME IS THAT THEY ARE LAYING –9.5 POINTS AS A FAV, AND THE PUBLIC’S MONEY IS 50-70% IN FAVOR OF THEIR SIDE. DON’T LIKE IT WHEN A LAST PLACE TEAM IS FAVORED BY SO MUCH.
<o
></o>42.5 SEATTLE 17<o
></o>-9.5 MIAMI 23<o
></o><o
></o>MONEYLINE: MIAMI (BEST BET ONLY THIS PLAY)<o
></o>ATS: SEATTLE +9.5 (NO PLAY)<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 42.5 (NO PLAY)<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>TENNESSEE AT CHICAGO
<o
></o><o
></o>THIS IS A TOUGH GAME TO CALL. I WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO TENNESSEE SINCE REX GROSSMAN HAS REPLACED THE INJURED ORTON AT QUATERBACK. I CALL GROSSMAN “MR. TURNOVER”. YOU JUST DON’T KNOW WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN HE PLAYS, HE’S TOO ERRATIC, AND FORCES PASSES INTO COVERAGE. HE PERFORMS LIKE THIS ON SUNDAY, THE TITANS ELITE SECONDARY WILL DESTROY THE BEARS. HOWEVER, I STILL THINK THE BEARS CAN KEEP THIS GAME CLOSE, FOR ONE REASON. I NOTED THE PAST TWO CONSECUTIVE GAMES, THE TITANS EXPLOSIVE RUNNING ATTACK THAT WAS TO DESTROY INDIANAPOLIS, AND GREEN BAY’S POORLY RANKED RUSH DEFENSES WAS STOPPED WITHOUT 8 MEN IN THE BOX. CHICAGO HAS A GOOD ENOUGH FRONT SEVEN TO CONTAIN THE RUN, AND MAY PLAY 8 MEN IN THE BOX TO FORCE TITAN QB COLLINS TO PASS INTO COVERAGE. EXPECT CHICAGO TO ALSO STEP IT UP A NOTCH AND PLAY WITH MORE INTENSITY TO COVER FOR THE LOSS OF THEIR BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYER, SO THAT THEY DON’T PUT THE GAME SQUARELY ON REX GROSSMAN’S SHOULDERS TO WIN THE GAME. I DON’T KNOW WHY THE TITANS ARE ONLY –3.0 FAVS, AND EVEN THOUGH THE MONEY IS ON TENNESSEE TO COVER, I WOULD HAVE TO AGREE. TENNESSEE HAS PLAYED ERRORLESS FOOTBALL, AND WON LIKE 11 STRAIGHT REGULAR SEASON GAMES. THE ARE SOUNDLY COACHED, AND DON’T BEAT THEMSELVES. ALSO CONSIDER THIS POINT . THE TITANS HAVE LISTED BULLUCK, AND VANDERBOSCH AS PROBABLE FOR SUNDAY. IF THEY PLAY, AND ARE AT 100 %, I CANT SEE THEM LOSING.
<o
></o>38.5 TENNESSEE 20
+3.0 CHICAGO 17
<o
></o>MONEYLINE: TENNESSEE<o
></o>ATS: TENNESSEE –3.0<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 38.5<o
></o><o
></o>RECOMMEND ( NO PLAY ACROSS THE BOARD)<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA
<o
></o>I REALLY LIKE ATLANTA IN THIS SPOT. ATLANTA’S QB RYAN SHOULD BE ABLE TO PASSTHE BALL DOWNFIELD WITH LITTLE RESISTANCE FROM A DECLINING NEW ORLEAN SAINT SECONDARY. IN ADDITION, THE FALCONS RB MICHAEL TURNER SHOULD RUN AMUCK ON THE NEW ORLEAN FRONT SEVEN SINCE THEY HAVE SUFFERED NUMEROUS INJURIES, AND THEIR LINEBACKERS HAVE BEEN A “NO SHOW” THIS SEASON. RB TURNER HAS HIS BEST GAMES VS WEAK RUSH DEFENSES, AND I EXPECT ANOTHER HUGE GAME FROM HIM IN THIS SPOT. WHAT EVEN MAKES THING WORSE FOR THE SAINTS, THEY LOST THEIR BEST SACK LEADER LAST WEEK TO INJURY, AND THEY ARE LEFT WITH NO PASS RUSH. THIS WILL GIVE THE YOUNG QB RYAN TO SIT IN THE POCKET , AND PICK HIS SPOTS. THE SAINTS MAY HAVE NO DEFENSE, BUT THEY HAVE THE WEAPONS TO SCORE POINTS ON OFFENSE. QB DREW BREES SHOULD MANAGE TO PUT AT LEAST 20 OR MORE POINTS ON THE BOARD DESPITE ATLANTA’S EXCELLENT PASS RUSH, FLANKED BY TWO OF THE BEST CORNERBACKS IN THE NFL. THE WEAKNESS OF THE FALCONS IS STOPPING THE RUN. ATLANTA RANKS 26<SUP>TH</SUP> ON DEFENSE VS THE RUSH, BUT THE SAINTS DO NOT HAVE THE PERSONEL TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS MATCHUP SINCE THEIR RUNNING GAME IS INCONSISTENT. WITH THE PUBLIC’S MONEY ON THE SAINTS (56%) , I LOVE THIS SPOT FOR THE FALCONS ONLY LAYING –1 POINT.<o
></o><o
></o>50.0 NEW ORLEANS 24<o
></o>-1.0 ATLANTA 27<o
></o><o
></o>MONEYLINE: ATLANTA (BEST BET)<o
></o>ATS: ATLANTA –1.0 (BEST BET)<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: OVER 50.0<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA
<o
></o>WARNING !, THIS MAYBE A TRAP PLAY. DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY GREEN BAY IS THE DOG IN THIS GAME FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS.
PACKERS QB AARON RODGERS HAS BEEN RED HOT SINCE HIS RETURN FROM INJURY. HE HAS SINCE COMPLETED 67% OF HIS PASSES,1,021 YARDS, AND 7 TD’S. NOW RODGERS GOES AGAINST A CRAPPY SECONDARY, THAT CANT DEFEND HIS TOP RECEIVERS. IN MOST CASES TEAMS FIRST TRY TO ESTABLISH THE RUN BEFORE THEY OPEN UP THE PASS. IN THIS SITUATION IT WILL BE THE OPPOSITE FOR RB RYAN GRANT. RODGERS WILL ESTABLISH THE PASS FIRST, AND THIS SHOULD OPEN UP THE VIKINGS 4<SUP>TH</SUP> RANK RUSH DEFENSE TO GIVE THE PACK OFFENSIVE BALANCE. RECALL LAST WEEK, VS TENNESEE’S TOP RUSH NFL DEFENSE. RYAN GRANT RAN FOR 86 YARDS ON 20 CARRIES, FOR 4.3 YDS PER CARRY.THE PACK WILL TRY TO DUPLICATE THE SAME. THE VIKINGS ON OFFENSE ALL FALLS ON THE SHOULDERS OF QB ADRIAN PETERSON MOVING THE CHAINS ON THE GROUND. THE VIKES HAVE NO OTHER PLAYMAKERS, AND CANT GET THE BALL DOWNFIELD WITH QB GUS FREROTTE. I EXPECT GB TO PLAY 8 IN THE BOX ON DEFENSE, SHUT THE RUN DOWN, AND FORCE THE OLD TIMER TO THROW DEEP INTO THEIR COVERAGE . WITH ALL THAT SOLID INFORMATION SAID. REMEMBER, GREEN BAY IS THE DOG IN THIS SPOT, AND THE PUBLIC ALSO THINKS SO WITH 54% TO 63% OF THE MONEY BEING WAGERED ON THEM. <o
></o><o
></o>44.5 GREEN BAY 24<o
></o>-2.5 MINNESOTA 23<o
></o><o
></o>MONEYLINE: GREEN BAY<o
></o>ATS: GREEN BAY (BEST BET-ONLY TEASE PLAY IT SAFE TRAP LINE)<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: OVER 44.5<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>ST LOUIS AT NEW YORK JETS
<o
></o>I DON’T REALLY LIKE THIS PLAY, BUT LET JUST SUMMARIZE THE WAY I SEE THIS GAME. ON ONE SIDE YOU HAVE THE ST LOUIS RAMS THAT HAVE TROUBLE PLAYING ON THE ROAD, WITH A POOR PASS DEFENSE, A HORRID RUSH DEFENSE, AND INJURIES TO ALL THEIR RUNNING BACKS WITH STARTER STEVEN JACKSON LISTED AS QUESTIONABLE FOR SUNDAY’S GAME.WITHOUT A HEALTHY JACKSON, IT COULD BE A LONG DAY FOR QB BULGER. LAST WEEK BULGER PLAYED TERRIBLE, AND FOUGHT WITH THE MEDIA. THE RAMS WERE TOTALLY EMBARRASSED. PROFESIONAL PRIDE MAY KICK IN WHEN THEY FACE THE JETS WITH 9.5 POINTS BEING SPOTTED IN THEIR FAVOR. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE JETS ON PAPER SHOULD WIN THIS GAME, BUT IN REALITY, WILL THEY BE FOCUSED AND READY TO PLAY AWFULL RAM FOOTBALL TEAM ON SUNDAY, OR WILL THEY BE MORE WORRIED AND LOOKING AHEAD TO THE PATRIOT MATCHUP IN 4 DAYS?. WHAT WILL QB BRETT FAVRE DO?. MR GUNSLINGER ALMOST COST THEM THEIR LAST TWO GAMES VS KC AND BUFFALO WITH HIS MANY INTERCEPTIONS. I KNOW EVERYBODY MAKES EXCUSES FOR HIM STATING THAT IT IS HIS STYLE. HOWEVER, “I” ISN’T IN TEAM, AND HE MUST STOP FORCING PASSES INTO COVERAGE WHEN THE RECEIVER ISN’T OPENED, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE AHEAD AND NEED TO PLAY MORE CONSERVATIVE. I CAN SEE FARVE THROWING 3 TD’S VS THE RAMS, AND AT THE SAME TIME THROW 3 INT’S. SEE MY POINT. SO EVEN IF THE JETS WIN, WILL THEY COVER?. THAT’S WHY I PASS ON THIS GAME.
<o
></o>43.5 ST LOUIS 17<o
></o>-9.5 NEW YORK JETS 24<o
></o><o
></o>MONEYLINE: NY JETS<o
></o>ATS: ST LOUIS +9.5<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 43.5<o
></o>( NO PLAY ACROSS THE BOARD)<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND
<o
></o>ANOTHER TIGHT GAME TO CALL. WHEN I LOOK UP MOST POWER RATING SYSTEMS, THE BILLS AND PATS ARE PRATICALLY EVEN MATCHED WITH NEW ENGLAND GRADED WITH A SLIGHT EDGE. THE BILLS HAVE LOST 3 OF THEIR LAST 4 GAMES, AND HAVE AVERAGED 2.8 TURNOVERS PER GAME. BOTH TEAMS WIN COLUMNS DON’T EQUAL THEIR SUB PAR PLAY THIS SEASON. NE IS WITHOUT THEIR 3 TOP RB’S, AND HAVE TO DEPEND ON THEIR BENCH WITH GREEN-ELLIS, AND KEVIN FAULK RUNNING THE BALL. THEY WERE ABLE TO DO SO THEIR LAST 3 GAMES SINCE THEIR OPPONENTS DENVER, ST LOUIS, AND INDIANAPOLIS RANKED POORLY DEFENSIVELY VS THE RUSH. THE BILLS ARE A DIFFERENT STORY. THEY ARE AN ESTABLISHED STOP UNIT, AND THEIR FRONT SEVEN IS SOLID VS THE RUSH. THE BILLS GAME PLAN MAY BE TO PLANT 8 DEFENDERS IN THE BOX, TAKE AWAY THE PATS RUNNING GAME, AND FORCE QB CASSEL INTO THIRD AND LONG SITUATIONS. THIS CAN BE MADE POSSIBLE IF QB CASSEL CONTINUES NOT TO TRY AND GET THE BALL DEEP ON VERTICLE PASS PLAYS, AND FAILS TO STRETCH THE BILLS DEFENSE. THE PATS ON RUSH DEFENSE HAVE BEEN SOLID UP FRONT, AND HAVEN’T ALLOWED A 100 YD RUSHER SINCE WEEK #3. BUFFALO’S TOP RUNNER MASHAWN LYNCH HAS BEEN STRUGGLING. THE PATS SECONDARY IS THEIR ACHILLES HEEL, AND CAN GET BEAT LIKE A DRUM. HOWEVER BILLS QB EDWARDS HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT, AND HAS PLAYED SLOPPY OF LATE. THIS A DIVISIONAL GAME THAT WILL BE PHYSICAL AND SHOULD COME DOWN TO THE FINAL SECONDS.
<o
></o>41.5 BUFFALO 17<o
></o>-4.0 NEW ENGLAND 20<o
></o><o
></o>MONEYLINE: NEW ENGLAND<o
></o>ATS: BUFFALO +4.0 (BEST BET TEASE THE LINE ONLY)<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 41.5<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>CAROLINA AT OAKLAND
<o
></o>WE ALL KNOW THE OAKLAND RAIDERS SUCK, PLAIN AND SIMPLE. BUT WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED SINCE LAST SUNDAY, MAY MAKE THE RAIDERS A BETTER TEAM THIS SUNDAY. 69% TO 82% OF THE PUBLIC’S MONEY IS FOLLOWING THE PANTHERS, AND THEY ARE LAYING DOUBLE DIGITS ON THE ROAD. AFTER THE RAIDERS WERE SHUT OUT BY ATLANTA LAST WEEK, THE TEAM AND THE ORGANIZATION WAS EMBARRASSED. USUALLY PRO PLAYERS RESPOND THE FOLLOWING WEEK MORE GAME READY AND FOCUSED AS A MATTER OF PRIDE. IN ADDITION, IT DIDN’T HURT WHEN OWNER AL DAVIS STARTED CLEANING HOUSE, AND GOT RID OF HALL, WALKER, AND KELLY DURING THE WEEK AND SENT A MESSAGE TO HIS PLAYERS. BOTTOM LINE, YOU DON’T PERFORM, YOUR OUT OF A JOB. LASTLY, CAROLINA ON PAPER WON THIS GAME HANDILY BEFORE IT WAS PLAYED. HOWEVER, HOW FOCUSED WILL THEY BE IN THIS GAME. YOU KNOW THAT THE PANTHERS WILL TAKE THE RAIDERS FOR GRANTED . BESIDES THIS GAME DOESN’T MEAN AS MUCH TO THE PANTHERS ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS A NON DIVISIONAL GAME.
<o
></o>37.5 CAROLINA 24<o
></o>+10.0 OAKLAND 17<o
></o><o
></o>MONEYLINE: CAROLINA<o
></o>ATS: OAKLAND +10.0<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: OVER 37.5<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>INDIANAPOLIS AT PITTSBURGH
<o
></o>THE COLTS LAST WEEK COULDN’T CONTAIN THE PATRIOT RUNNING GAME EVEN WITH BOB SANDERS BACK IN THE LINE UP, AND 3 OF NEW ENGLAND’S TOP RUNNING BACKS OUT. ANYTIME IT SEEMED WHEN IT WAS THIRD DOWN AND THEY NEEDED TO CONVERT, THEY JUST HANDED THE BALL OFF TO ONE OF THEIR 3<SUP>RD</SUP> STRING BACKS FOR FIRST DOWNS. NOW THE COLTS FACE A TEAM THAT LIKES TO RUN, AND THEY HAVE THE RUSHERS TO DO IT. THE STEELERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHRED THE COLT FRONT SEVEN. IN ADDITION, AN EFFECTIVE RUNNING GAME WILL TAKE THE PRESSURE OFF THEIR OFFENSIVE LINE AND QB ROETHLISBERGER, AND WILL ENABLE PLAY ACTION PASSING PLAYS TO STRETCH THE BALL DOWNFIELD. IT ALSO HELPS THE PITTSBURGH OFFENSIVE LINE TO KNOW THAT THE COLTS ONLY HAVE 10 SACKS ON THE SEASON. THE COLTS OFFENSE ALL SEASON LOOK OUT OF SYNC. ESPECIALLY LAST WEEK VS NE. MANNING WENT UP AGAINST A LOUSY PATRIOT SECONDARY AND DIDN’T EVEN CHALLENGE THEM DEEP. RB JOSEPH ADDAI PLAYED POORLY AND WAS NO FACTOR, THUS NO RUNNING GAME, AND WR HARRISON DROPPED BALLS, AND LOOKS LIKE HE IS WASHED UP. WITH THE COLTS SLUMPING ON OFFENSE, IT DOESN’T HELP THE COLT CHANCES VS PITTSBURGH 3-4 DEFENSE. IT IS A KNOWN FACT THAT MANNING HATES FACING A TOUGH 3-4 DEFENSE, AND HAS STRUGGLED AGAINST THAT DEFENSIVE SCHEME ALL OF HIS CAREER EVEN WHEN ON TOP OF HIS GAME. <o
></o><o
></o>40.0 INDIANAPOLIS 20<o
></o>-4.0 PITTSBURGH 27<o
></o><o
></o>MONEYLINE: PITTSBURGH <o
></o>ATS: PITTSBURGH –4.0 (BEST BET SU, AGAINST SPREAD, MONEYLINE)<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: OVER 40.0<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO
<o
></o>ALTHOUGH WE ALL KNOW THAT KC IS A BAD FOOTBALL TEAM, ESPECIALLY AFTER BLOWING A 21 POINT LEAD LAST WEEK. HOWEVER, DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH THEY HAVE BEEN GETTING PRODUCTION OUT OF THEIR 3<SUP>RD</SUP> STRING QB TYLER THIGPEN. THIS GUY IS RED HOT, WITH A 63.9% PASS PERCENTAGE, AN OVER 7.0 YPA, 3 TD’S , NO INT’S OR FUMBLES. SO THIGPEN SHOULD BE ABLE TO CARRY THESE NUMBERS OVER TO THE SD GAME. THE CHARGERS ARE INCONSISTENT ON DEFENSE . THEY RANK 18<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE PASS, AND THEY HAVE NO PASS RUSH. IN ADDITION, KC SHOULD BE ABLE TO RUN ON SAN DIEGO’S RUSH DEFENSE THAT RANKS 21<SUP>ST</SUP>. SAN DIEGO ON OFFENSE WITH THEIR WEAPONS WILL SCORE MANY POINTS VS THE CHIEFS ENEPT DEFENSE OVERALL. THE CHIEFS DEFENSE IS NON EXISTENT RANKING 32<SUP>ND</SUP> VS THE RUN, AND 24<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE PASS. I SEE THIS A CLOSE , HATED, RIVILARY MATCHUP, AND I EXPECT THE GAME TO BE CLOSE. SAN DIEGO IS NOT THE SAME TEAM AS IN 2007, SINCE THIS PRE SEASON, THEY HAVE LOST MANY TOP PLAYERS TO INJURY ON DEFENSE, AND THEY ARE PLAYING BANGED UP. THIS FACTOR SHOULD KEEP KC IN THE CONTEST.<o
></o><o
></o>47.5 KANSAS CITY 23<o
></o>-15.0 SAN DIEGO 29<o
></o><o
></o>MONEYLINE: SAN DIEGO<o
></o>ATS: KANSAS CITY +15.0 ( BEST BET- EVEN MORE VALUE IF YOU SHADE)<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: OVER 47.6 (THIS IS A BEST BET THIS WILL BE A HIGH SCORING GAME)<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA
<o
></o>WOW, WHEN I EVALUATE THIS MATCHUP I SEE A HATED DIVISIONAL RIVALRY GAME, WITH TALENTED PLAYERS ON BOTH SIDES , WITH EXCELLENT DEFENSES AND OFFENSES. BY COMPARISON THESE TEAMS ARE EVENLY MATCHED, AND YET PHILADELPHIA IS A 3 POINT FAVORITE. AFTER MUCH RESEARCH ON THIS GAME, I CAME ACROSS AN INTRESTING FACT. So, what's the fundamental difference between New York and Philadelphia? The ability to win in the clutch. Check out these figures for proof:
Since the 2006 playoffs, the Eagles are 1-7 in games decided by four points or less. The Giants, on the other hand, are 6-2 in those situations in the same time span, including 3-0 in last year's unbelievable postseason run.<o
></o><o
></o>I ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE BETTER HEAD COACH IS ON THE GIANTS SIDE. ENOUGH SAID YOU KNOW WHO I LIKE.<o
></o><o
></o>43.5 NY GIANTS 23<o
></o>-3.0 PHILADELPHIA 20<o
></o><o
></o>MONEYLINE: NY GIANTS<o
></o>ATS: NY GIANTS +3.0 (BEST BET SHADE THE G MEN WITH A TEASER)<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 43.5<o
></o>BROOKLYNWORM’S BEST BETS
<o
></o>STRAIGHT UP ATS PLAYS<o
></o>ATLANTA –1.0
PITTSBURGH –4.0<o
></o>KANSAS CITY/SD PLAY OVER 47.5<o
></o>BALTIMORE/HOUSTON PLAY OVER 43.0<o
></o><o
></o>MONEYLINE PLAYS
MIAMI
PITTSBURGH<o
></o>ATLANTA<o
></o><o
></o>TEASER 10 POINTS 3 TEAMS
KANSAS CITY +25.0
NY GIANTS +13.0<o
></o>BUFFALO +14.0<o
></o><o
></o>TEASER 7 POINTS 5 TEAMS
GREEN BAY +12.5
BUFFALO +11.0<o
></o>PITTSBURGH +6.0<o
></o>KANSAS CITY +22.0<o
></o>NY GIANTS +10.0<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>GOOD LUCK EVERYONE<o
></o><o
></o>BROOKLYNWORM<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>
