BROOKLYNWORM’S NFL PICKS AND PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK #4
IMPORTANT NOTE: WE ARE ENTERING WEEK #4 OF THE NFL REGULAR SEASON. VEGAS NOW HAS A PRETTY GOOD IDEA HOW TO SET THE TRAP LINES. EVERY SEASON I WARN HANDICAPPERS TO FACTOR IN , AND FOCUS MORE ON THE VEGAS LINES, THEN JUST THE X’S AND O’S ON PAPER. YOU WILL SEE IN MY THREAD GAMES, I PICK CERTAIN TEAMS THAT WON’T MAKE SENSE TO YOU /GO AGAINST THE GRAIN/AND DOESN’T FIGURE. THIS IS PART OF THE CONFUSION THAT THE BOOK PLANTS IN THE PUBLIC’S MIND, AND THEY ARE COUNTING ON THE “JOE BETTOR” THAT HE IS NOW IMPRESSIONABLE TO GAMES AND HIGHLIGHTS THAT HE OR SHE SEEN THE WEEK BEFORE. IT WILL BE EXPLAINED IN THOSE MATCHUPS AS WE GO ALONG.<o
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44.5 CLEVELAND 23<o></o>
-3.5 CINCINNATI 20<o></o>
<o></o>
TWO BAD TEAMS, THIS GAME IS A TOSS UP. WHY IS VEGAS MAKING THE BENGALS A –3.5 FAVORITE IN A RIVAL OHIO STATE GAME?. JOE PUBLIC LAST WEEK SEEN THE BENGALS PLAY THE NY GIANTS INTO OVERTIME LAST WEEK AND FINALLY SHOWED AN EFFORT FACING A GOOD GIANT TEAM THAT WAS FLAT BEFORE THEIR BYE WEEK AND WASN’T FOCUSED. CLEVELAND HAS SHOWN NOTHING SINCE THE END OF LAST SEASON, AND FROM THE PRE SEASON TO WEEK #3 THE BROWNS ARE 0-7. JOE PUBLIC, (NOW IMPRESSIONABLE) NOW SEES THE BENGALS AS THE BETTER PLAY . KEEP IN MIND CLEVELAND PLAYED DALLAS, PITTSBURGH, AND BALTIMORE, A TOUGH OPENING REGULAR SEASON SCHEDULE. SO GRANTED, THE BENGALS ON PAPER MAY BE THE BETTER TEAM, BUT I SAY NAY . <o></o>
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RECOMMENDATION: TAKE CLEVELAND +3.5 POINTS. BETTER IF YOU TEASE THEN FOR MORE VALUE IF YOU MUST PLAY THIS GAME.<o></o>
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MONEY LINE: CLEVELAND<o></o>
ATS: CLEVELAND +3.5<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 44.5<o></o>
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39.0 ATLANTA 17<o></o>
-6.5 CAROLINA 21<o></o>
<o></o>
WE KNOW CAROLINA ON PAPER SHOULD WIN THIS GAME HANDS DOWN. HOWEVER, DID YOU KNOW THAT THE ROAD TEAM IN THIS SERIES HAS WON THE LAST 5 GAMES . ALSO CAROLINA IS NO GREAT SHAKES WHEN THEY PLAY AT HOME. IT’S NOT A BIG EDGE WHEN YOU CHECK THEIR HOME HISTORY VS THE SPREAD. PROBLEM HERE WITH THE PUBLIC 79% OF THE MONEY IS BET ON CAROLINA TO COVER THE SPREAD. “JOE PUBLIC” SEES ATLANTA AS A TEAM THAT HASN’T BEEN TESTED, SINCE THEY PLAYED KC, AND DETROIT. IN ADDITION, ATLANTA’S RUNNING BACK TURNER RAN FOR MOST OF HIS BIG YARDAGE, AND TD’S VS THOSE TWO LOUSY CLUBS. THAT’S THE IMPRESSION VEGAS WANTS FOR YOU TO PICTURE. NOW DO THE OPPOSITE.<o></o>
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RECOMMENDATION: IF YOU HAVE TO PLAY TAKE THE +6.5 POINTS WITH ATLANTA.<o></o>
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MONEY LINE CAROLINA<o></o>
ATS ATLANTA<o></o>
OVER/UNDER – UNDER 39.0<o></o>
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43.0 HOUSTON 17<o></o>
-7.0 JACKSONVILLE 21<o></o>
<o></o>
THE JAGS ARE AN OVERRATED TEAM COMING OFF AN EMOTIONAL COMEBACK VICTORY OVER THE RUSH DEFENSE-LESS ( SANDERS WAS OUT) COLTS. SO HERE’S THE PICTURE VEGAS DRAWS IN THIS MATCHUP. TEXAN’S SUCK, THE HURRICANE HAS CAUSED THEM NOT TO PLAY A HOME GAME FOR 4 WEEKS, AND LOST THEIR FIRST TWO GAMES BY AN AVERAGE OF 20 POINTS. WELL THE PUBLIC WENT FOR THE BAIT, AND 68% OF THE MONEY VS THE SPREAD IS ON THE JAGS. HOLD THE PHONE !. JAGS WILL COME OUT FLAT, AND THEY ARE ALREADY LOOKING AHEAD TO PITTSBURGH NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD CONSIDER THE TEXANS. THEY PLAYED THE NFL’S TOUGHEST DEFENSES TENNESSEE, AND PITTSBURGH IN THEIR ONLY GAMES. THEY NOW FACE AN OVERRATED JAG DEFENSE THAT RANKS 19<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE RUN, AND 26<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE PASS. HOSTONS QB SCHAUB WILL FINALLY GET TIME TO THROW, AND THE JAGS DEFENSIVE LINE ALLOWS 4.3 YARDS PER CARRY. JAGS QB GERRARD IS A TERRIBLE NFL QB. JUST NAME ONE GAME IF YOU CAN RECALL WHEN HE EVER CARRIED A TEAM ON HIS SHOULDERS AND WAS THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN THE GAME?. LASTLY, JAGS RELY ON THE RUN, AND HAD A HUGE DAY VS THE COLTS LAST WEEK SINPLY BECAUSE THE COLT DEFENSE CANNOT STOP ANYONE ON THE GROUND WITHOUT SAFETY SANDERS ANCHORING UP THEIR DEFENSE. HOUSTON IS IN A MUST WIN SITUATION, AND HAVE TO PLAY WELL TODAY.<o></o>
RECOMMEDATION: TAKE HOUSTON +7.0<o></o>
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MONEY LINE JACKSONVILLE<o></o>
ATS HOUSTON +7.0<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 43.0<o></o>
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36.0 MINNESOTA 17<o></o>
-3.0 TENNESSEE 20<o></o>
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TOUGH GAME TO HANDICAP. BOTH TEAMS MIRROR THEMSELVES, AND MATCHUP PRETTY WELL. LAST WEEK, I SAID THE SAME THING LAST WEEK WHEN THE VIKES PLAYED CAROLINA LAST WEEK AND WON. YOU HAVE NOW TWO STARTING VETERAN QBS , YOU HAVE TWO TEAMS THAT CAN SHUT DOWN THE RUN. BOTH TEAM’S BREAD AND BUTTER IS THEIR RUNNING GAMES MINNESOTA RANKED 5<SUP>TH</SUP>, AND TENNESSEE RANKED 6<SUP>TH</SUP>.RUSH DEFENSE MINNESOTA 4<SUP>TH</SUP>, AND TENNESSEE 10<SUP>TH</SUP>. BUT HERE’S THE EDGE FOR THE TITANS , THEY PLAY AT HOME, VIKINGS OFFENSIVE LINEMAN MCKINNIE IS OUT, TITANS ARE BETTER AT THE TIGHT END POSITION. SO IF BOTH TEAMS ARE A WASH AT RUNNING THE BALL, THE PASS WILL TELL THE TALE OF THE TAPE. PASS OFFENSE STAT WISE WITH BOTH TEAMS HAVING STARTING QB PROBLEMS SINCE THE START OF THE SEASON, THE TITANS RANK 23<SUP>RD</SUP> ON PASS OFFENSE, THE VIKES 24<SUP>TH</SUP>. NOW COMPARE THAT TO THEIR PASS DEFENSES. MINNESOTA RANKS 20<SUP>TH</SUP>, AND TENNESSEE AN IMPRESSIVE 3<SUP>RD</SUP>. WITH THE COMBINATION OF A PASS RUSH FROM TENNESSEE’S BOSCH, AND KEARSE COULD BE A LONG DAY FOR QB GUS FERROTTE, AND A LONGER DAY FOR RB PETERSON.<o></o>
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RECOMMENDATION: 78% OF THE MONEY IS ON TENNESSEE TO COVER, AND THAT’S THE ONLY THING THAT SCARES ME FROM TAKING THE TITANS.<o></o>
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MONEY LINE TENNESSEE<o></o>
ATS TENNESSE –3.0<o></o>
OVER/UNDER OVER 36.0<o></o>
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42.5 GREEN BAY 20<o></o>
-1.0 TAMPA BAY 21<o></o>
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WELL 65% OF THE MONEY IS ON GREEN BAY TO COVER. GB HAS BEEN GETTING THIS GREAT PRESS HYPE WITH TO HOT START OF QB RODGERS, WHICH IS THE LASTING IMPRESSION ON THE PUBLIC. KEEP IN MIND THAT BOTH THESE TEAMS ARE EVENLY MATCHED, AND THAT IS WHY THE LINE IS ONLY 1 POINT. HERE’S MY REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE TAMPA BAY. GREEN BAY’S DEFENSIVE LINE SURRENDERS 5.5 YARDS PER CARRY. GREISE ON THE ROAD LAST WEEK IN CHICAGO THREW 67 PASSES FOR 407 YARDS. GREEN BAY RANKS 22<SUP>ND</SUP> VS THE PASS ON DEFENSE, AND WILL BE WITHOUT AL HARRIS AT CORNERBACK, AND LACKS DEPTH AT THE CORNER POSITION. TAMPA BAY MAY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY ONCE AGAIN LIKE THEY DID LAST WEEK WITH OPENING THE RUN, AND FEEDING OFF THE PLAY ACTION PASS TO KEEP GREEN BAY’S DEFENSE OFF BALANCE. GAME TIME TEMP IS EXPECTED TO BE 92 DEGREES, THAT MEANS 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAYING FIELD, ADVANTAGE TAMPA BAY.<o></o>
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RECOMMENDATION: TAMPA BAY –1.0, AND PLAY THE UNDER<o></o>
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MONEY LINE TAMPA BAY<o></o>
ATS TAMPA BAY –1.0<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 42.5 <o></o>
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44.5 ARIZONA 20<o></o>
-1.0 NY JETS 21<o></o>
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LAST IMPRESSIONS. LAST WEEK JETS SHOWED THE NATIONAL TV AUDIENCE THAT THEY HAVE NO PASS RUSH, OR PASS DEFENSE VS AN EXPLOSIVE SD OFFENSE. NOW THEY FACE FITZGERALD, AND BOLDIN WHOM BOTH SHOULD HAVE BIG DAYS. ARIZONA REMAINED EAST FOR TWO WEEKS AFTER LOSING IN WASHINGTON. THE PUBLIC IS DIVIDED ON THIS GAME , AND THE MONEY LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE JET’S SIDE.<o></o>
EXPECT A CLOSE GAME, FARVE SHOULD REBOUND, AND JETS WIN BY A FIELD GOAL. WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED IF THIS GAME WENT INTO OVERTIME.<o></o>
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RECOMMENDATION: SEE NOTHING STRONG ON THIS PLAY EXPECT MAYBE TAKING THE UNDER.<o></o>
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MONEY LINE NY JETS<o></o>
ATS NY JETS –1.0<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 44.5<o></o>
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47.0 DENVER 27<o></o>
9.5 KANSAS CITY 20<o></o>
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HERE IS A TRAP GAME. WE ALL KNOW THAT THE CHIEF’S ARE ONE OF THE WORST TEAMS IN THE NFL. LAST WEEK, DENVER DISPLAYED THEIR OFFENSIVE MIGHT VS THE SAINTS. THROW THE STATS OUT, AND ANY BAD IMPRESSIONS YOU HAVE TOWARDS KC. FIRST, QB SWITCH WAS MADE QB HUARD IN FOR THIGPEN. THIGPEN PLAIN OUT SUCKS, AND IF HE WAS STARTING THIS GAME, DENVER WOULD RUN AWAY WITH IT. HUARD WITH EXPERIENCE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THE BALL ON A LOUSY BRONCO DEFENSE RANKED 22<SUP>ND</SUP> VS THE RUN, AND LAST 32<SUP>ND</SUP> VS THE PASS. (THIS QB CHANGE UP WORKED FOR THE VIKES LAST WEEK AS DOGS VS CAROLINA LAST WEEK). HUARD KNOWS HOW TO CONTROL THE TEMPO, AND RUN A HERM EDWARDS CONSERVATIVE GAME PLAN. RUN THE BALL, KILL THE CLOCK, KEEP THE BALL AWAY FROM THE DENVER OFFENSE. DENVER IS COMING OFF TWO CONSECUTIVE EMOTIONAL WINS AT HOME, AND NOW TRAVEL ON THE ROAD, AND MAY NOT BE FOCUSED. CHIEFS WILL SHOW UP FOR THIS CONTEST AND PLAY HARD. THEY MAY NOT WIN, BUT THEY CAN COVER THE NUMBER.<o></o>
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RECOMMENDATION: SLEEPER/DOG PLAY TAKE KC. ATS/ TEASER.<o></o>
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MONEY LINE DENVER<o></o>
ATS KANSAS CITY +9.5<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 47.0<o></o>
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45.5 SAN DIEGO 24<o></o>
+8.0 OAKLAND 17<o></o>
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THE ONLY ANGLE THAT BOTHERS ME ABOUT THIS GAME IS THAT THE PUBLIC’S MONEY 90% IS ON THE CHARGERS. THE CHARGERS OWN THE RAIDERS. SD BEATEN OAKLAND 9 STRAIGHT GAMES. 8 OF 9 OF THOSE GAMES WERE DECIDED BY A TD OR MORE. 6 WERE SD DOUBLE DIGIT WINS.OAKLAND PLAY HORRIBLE AT HOME, SD HAS TOO MANY OFFENSIVE WEAPONS, LT PLAYS HIS BEST FOOTBAL VS THE RAIDERS. RAIDERS OVERRATED SECONDARY NOT PLAYING TO THEIR POTENTIAL. <o></o>
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RECOMMENDATION: IF YOU TAKE SD YOU WILL NEED TO SCORE A TD AND FG TO COVER. 2 SCORES , BASED ON COMMON MATHEMATICAL NUMBERS OF POINTS IN ALL GAMES 3,7,10. 13. 14. 17. 20. 21. SO GIVING UP 8 IS LIKE GIVING UP 9. SD WERE 9.5 FAVORITES LAST WEEK VS THE JETS THAT RANKED 21<SUP>ST</SUP> VS THE PASS, AND NOW PLAY OAKLAND RANKED 26<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE PASS?. TRAP GAME?.<o></o>
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MONEY LINE SAN DIEGO<o></o>
ATS OAKLAND +8.0<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 45.5<o></o>
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43.0 BUFFALO 24<o></o>
+8.0 ST LOUIS 14<o></o>
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I LIKE BUFFALO BUT LAYIN 8 ON THE ROAD?. AT THIS POINT ST LOUIS IS THE WORST NFL TEAM. THEY BENCHED QB BULGER FOR QB TRENT GREEN?. BIG MISTAKE !!!, BULGER IS A GOOD NFL QB, HE JUST DOESN’T HAVE AN OFFENSIVE LINE TO PROTECT HIM. STARTING GREEN AT QB IS LIKE RUNNING OUT A DEER IN HEADLIGHTS. BUFFALO’S PASS RUSH WILL CRUSH GREEN AND HIS CREAM PUFF OFFENSIVE LINE. PEOPLE WONDER WHY THE BILLS HAVE BECOME SO GOOD OVER NIGHT. WELL, IT WAS THE DRAFT. IN 2006 THEY ADDED 5 STARTERS AND 2 RESERVES TO THEIR ROSTER. 6 OF THOSE 7 PLAYERS ARE PLAYING GREAT DEFENSE. BILLS WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THIS GAME AFTER A WAKE UP CALL VS OAKLAND LAST WEEK. ST LOUIS RANKS 28<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE RUN, AND 30<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE PASS ON DEFENSE. ST LOUIS RANKS 32<SUP>ND</SUP> ON OFFENSE RUSHING, AND ONLY 27<SUP>TH</SUP> PASSING.<o></o>
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RECOMMEDATION: CANT SEE ST LOUIS AT ALL, PROBLEM IS 79% OF THE PUBLIC IS ON BUFFALO TO COVER, AND BUFFALO IS BIG FAVS ON THE ROAD, IF YOU NEED TO PLAY TEASE IT DOWN AND PLAY THE BILLS, OR DON’T PLAY THIS GAME AT ALL.<o></o>
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MONEY LINE: BUFFALO<o></o>
ATS BUFFALO –8.0<o></o>
OVER/UNDER- UNDER 43.0<o></o>
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48.0 SAN FRANCISCO 20<o></o>
-5.0 NEW ORLEANS 26<o></o>
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I LIKE NEW ORLEANS IN THIS SPOT. SF HASN’T PLAYED ANYONE. WEEK 1 THEY PLAYED ARIZONA, WEEK 2 SEATTLE, WEEK 3 DETROIT. THEIR SEATTLE VICTORY CAME AT THE EXPENSE OF THE MANY KEY INJURIES TO THE SEAHAWK STARTING LINEUP, AND THEIR WIN WAS DECEIVING. THEN LAST WEEK THEY PLAYED DETROIT, ENOUGH SAID. NOW SF TRAVELS ON THE ROAD TO FACE THE SAINTS WHO PLAYED DENVER IN A TOUGH LOSS AWAY, TAMPA BAY, AND WASHINGTON. ALTHOUGH THE SAINTS HAVE INJURIES, THEY HAVE ENOUGH FIREPOWER TO REALLY TEST SF SECONDARY. I THINK RB MC CALLISTER MAY RETURN TO THE SAINTS LINEUP THIS GAME AND WILL GIVE THE SAINTS A BOOST, IN THE MUST WIN<o></o>
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RECOMMEDATION: TAKE THE SAINTS LAY THE –5.0 POINTS<o></o>
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MONEY LINE NEW ORLEANS<o></o>
ATS NEW ORLEANS –5<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 48.0<o></o>
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46.0 WASHINGTON 17<o></o>
-11.0 DALLAS 30<o></o>
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TAHE THE BOYS HERE, THE MONEY IS BEING LAID ON THE SKINS GETTING 11. WASH JASON TAYLOR OUT, WILL AFFECT THEIR PASS RUSH. WASH ALLOWS 5.2 YARDS PER GAME ON RUSH DEFENSE. WITHOUT JASON TAYLOR, THIS WILL FORCE THE SKINS TO PLAY ONE ONONE COVERAGE ON DALLAS WIDE RCEIVERS, AND LOOK FOR TERRELL OWENS TO HAVE A HUGE DAY. DALLAS HAS 10 PASS RUSH SACKS ON THE SEASON, AND THIS TIME QB CAMPBELL WILL BE LEFT STRANDED WITH HIS WEST COAST OFFENSE ON THE EAST COAST. THIS IS A REVENGE GAME FOR DALLAS. LAST SEASON, WEEK #17, THE SKINS DESTROYED DALLAS. THE TEMP AT GAME TIME ON THE FIELD SHOULD BE AT 100 DEGREES.<o></o>
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RECOMMENDATION: THIS IS MY BEST BET OF THE WEEK, BET DALLAS ACROSS THE BOARD.<o></o>
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MONEY LINE DALLS<o></o>
ATS DALLAS –11.0<o></o>
OVER/UNDER : OVER 46.0<o></o>
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40.0 PHILADELPHIA 20<o></o>
+3.0 CHICAGO 17<o></o>
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YOU HAVE TO WONDER WHY THE EAGLES ARE ONLY 3.0 PT FAVS. VEGAS SHOULD HAVE SET THE LINE AT 6. WITHOUT QUESTION, PHILADELPHIA ON PAPER IS THE PLAY, BUT WITH 86% OF THE PUBLIC JUMPING ON THEIR BAND WAGON , ONE MUST WONDER IF THIS IS A VEGAS TRAP PLAY. THE REASON WHY I THINK THE BEARS CAN SQUEEZE THIS GAME OUT IS THAT PHILA MAY BE FLAT OVER THEIR BIG STATE RIVAL VICTORY OVER PITTSBURGH LAST WEEK. ALTHOUGH BOTH ARE STARTING THIS GAME, ONE HAS TO WONDER ABOUT THE INJURIES TO QB MC NABB (UPPER CHEST BRUISE) AND RB WESTBROOK (AANKLE SPRAIN). THESE TWO ARE THE GLUE OF THEIR OFFENSE. WITHOUT THEM AT 100 %, OR IF THEY CANNOT FINISH THE GAME COULD PLAY INTO THE CHICAGO BEAR’S HANDS.<o></o>
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RECOMMEDATION: THIS IS A TRAP, NO PLAY.<o></o>
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MONEY LINE PHILADELPHIA<o></o>
ATS: CHICAGO<o></o>
OVER/UNDER: UNDER 40.0<o></o>
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BROOKLYNWORM’S BEST BETS
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AGAINST THE SPREAD<o></o>
KANSAS CITY +9.5
NEW ORLEANS –5<o></o>
DALLAS –11<o></o>
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7 POINT TEASERS<o></o>
KANSAS CITY +16.5
NEW ORLEANS +2<o></o>
DALLAS –4<o></o>
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TEASER UNDERDOGS
HOUSTON +14
ATLANTA +13.5<o></o>
CLEVELAND +10.5<o></o>
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OVER/UNDERS
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IF YOU PLAY ALL THE NFL GAMES UNDER THE TOTAL, YOU SHOULD WIN 9 GAMES AND MAKE A PROFIT ON THIS WEEK #4 NFL BYE WEEK SCHEDULE FEATURING 14 GAMES.
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GOOD LUCK TOO ALL<o></o>
BROOKLYNWORM<o></o>
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></o>44.5 CLEVELAND 23<o
></o>-3.5 CINCINNATI 20<o
></o><o
></o>TWO BAD TEAMS, THIS GAME IS A TOSS UP. WHY IS VEGAS MAKING THE BENGALS A –3.5 FAVORITE IN A RIVAL OHIO STATE GAME?. JOE PUBLIC LAST WEEK SEEN THE BENGALS PLAY THE NY GIANTS INTO OVERTIME LAST WEEK AND FINALLY SHOWED AN EFFORT FACING A GOOD GIANT TEAM THAT WAS FLAT BEFORE THEIR BYE WEEK AND WASN’T FOCUSED. CLEVELAND HAS SHOWN NOTHING SINCE THE END OF LAST SEASON, AND FROM THE PRE SEASON TO WEEK #3 THE BROWNS ARE 0-7. JOE PUBLIC, (NOW IMPRESSIONABLE) NOW SEES THE BENGALS AS THE BETTER PLAY . KEEP IN MIND CLEVELAND PLAYED DALLAS, PITTSBURGH, AND BALTIMORE, A TOUGH OPENING REGULAR SEASON SCHEDULE. SO GRANTED, THE BENGALS ON PAPER MAY BE THE BETTER TEAM, BUT I SAY NAY . <o
></o><o
></o>RECOMMENDATION: TAKE CLEVELAND +3.5 POINTS. BETTER IF YOU TEASE THEN FOR MORE VALUE IF YOU MUST PLAY THIS GAME.<o
></o><o
></o>MONEY LINE: CLEVELAND<o
></o>ATS: CLEVELAND +3.5<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 44.5<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>39.0 ATLANTA 17<o
></o>-6.5 CAROLINA 21<o
></o><o
></o>WE KNOW CAROLINA ON PAPER SHOULD WIN THIS GAME HANDS DOWN. HOWEVER, DID YOU KNOW THAT THE ROAD TEAM IN THIS SERIES HAS WON THE LAST 5 GAMES . ALSO CAROLINA IS NO GREAT SHAKES WHEN THEY PLAY AT HOME. IT’S NOT A BIG EDGE WHEN YOU CHECK THEIR HOME HISTORY VS THE SPREAD. PROBLEM HERE WITH THE PUBLIC 79% OF THE MONEY IS BET ON CAROLINA TO COVER THE SPREAD. “JOE PUBLIC” SEES ATLANTA AS A TEAM THAT HASN’T BEEN TESTED, SINCE THEY PLAYED KC, AND DETROIT. IN ADDITION, ATLANTA’S RUNNING BACK TURNER RAN FOR MOST OF HIS BIG YARDAGE, AND TD’S VS THOSE TWO LOUSY CLUBS. THAT’S THE IMPRESSION VEGAS WANTS FOR YOU TO PICTURE. NOW DO THE OPPOSITE.<o
></o><o
></o>RECOMMENDATION: IF YOU HAVE TO PLAY TAKE THE +6.5 POINTS WITH ATLANTA.<o
></o><o
></o>MONEY LINE CAROLINA<o
></o>ATS ATLANTA<o
></o>OVER/UNDER – UNDER 39.0<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>43.0 HOUSTON 17<o
></o>-7.0 JACKSONVILLE 21<o
></o><o
></o>THE JAGS ARE AN OVERRATED TEAM COMING OFF AN EMOTIONAL COMEBACK VICTORY OVER THE RUSH DEFENSE-LESS ( SANDERS WAS OUT) COLTS. SO HERE’S THE PICTURE VEGAS DRAWS IN THIS MATCHUP. TEXAN’S SUCK, THE HURRICANE HAS CAUSED THEM NOT TO PLAY A HOME GAME FOR 4 WEEKS, AND LOST THEIR FIRST TWO GAMES BY AN AVERAGE OF 20 POINTS. WELL THE PUBLIC WENT FOR THE BAIT, AND 68% OF THE MONEY VS THE SPREAD IS ON THE JAGS. HOLD THE PHONE !. JAGS WILL COME OUT FLAT, AND THEY ARE ALREADY LOOKING AHEAD TO PITTSBURGH NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD CONSIDER THE TEXANS. THEY PLAYED THE NFL’S TOUGHEST DEFENSES TENNESSEE, AND PITTSBURGH IN THEIR ONLY GAMES. THEY NOW FACE AN OVERRATED JAG DEFENSE THAT RANKS 19<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE RUN, AND 26<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE PASS. HOSTONS QB SCHAUB WILL FINALLY GET TIME TO THROW, AND THE JAGS DEFENSIVE LINE ALLOWS 4.3 YARDS PER CARRY. JAGS QB GERRARD IS A TERRIBLE NFL QB. JUST NAME ONE GAME IF YOU CAN RECALL WHEN HE EVER CARRIED A TEAM ON HIS SHOULDERS AND WAS THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN THE GAME?. LASTLY, JAGS RELY ON THE RUN, AND HAD A HUGE DAY VS THE COLTS LAST WEEK SINPLY BECAUSE THE COLT DEFENSE CANNOT STOP ANYONE ON THE GROUND WITHOUT SAFETY SANDERS ANCHORING UP THEIR DEFENSE. HOUSTON IS IN A MUST WIN SITUATION, AND HAVE TO PLAY WELL TODAY.<o
></o>RECOMMEDATION: TAKE HOUSTON +7.0<o
></o><o
></o>MONEY LINE JACKSONVILLE<o
></o>ATS HOUSTON +7.0<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 43.0<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>36.0 MINNESOTA 17<o
></o>-3.0 TENNESSEE 20<o
></o><o
></o>TOUGH GAME TO HANDICAP. BOTH TEAMS MIRROR THEMSELVES, AND MATCHUP PRETTY WELL. LAST WEEK, I SAID THE SAME THING LAST WEEK WHEN THE VIKES PLAYED CAROLINA LAST WEEK AND WON. YOU HAVE NOW TWO STARTING VETERAN QBS , YOU HAVE TWO TEAMS THAT CAN SHUT DOWN THE RUN. BOTH TEAM’S BREAD AND BUTTER IS THEIR RUNNING GAMES MINNESOTA RANKED 5<SUP>TH</SUP>, AND TENNESSEE RANKED 6<SUP>TH</SUP>.RUSH DEFENSE MINNESOTA 4<SUP>TH</SUP>, AND TENNESSEE 10<SUP>TH</SUP>. BUT HERE’S THE EDGE FOR THE TITANS , THEY PLAY AT HOME, VIKINGS OFFENSIVE LINEMAN MCKINNIE IS OUT, TITANS ARE BETTER AT THE TIGHT END POSITION. SO IF BOTH TEAMS ARE A WASH AT RUNNING THE BALL, THE PASS WILL TELL THE TALE OF THE TAPE. PASS OFFENSE STAT WISE WITH BOTH TEAMS HAVING STARTING QB PROBLEMS SINCE THE START OF THE SEASON, THE TITANS RANK 23<SUP>RD</SUP> ON PASS OFFENSE, THE VIKES 24<SUP>TH</SUP>. NOW COMPARE THAT TO THEIR PASS DEFENSES. MINNESOTA RANKS 20<SUP>TH</SUP>, AND TENNESSEE AN IMPRESSIVE 3<SUP>RD</SUP>. WITH THE COMBINATION OF A PASS RUSH FROM TENNESSEE’S BOSCH, AND KEARSE COULD BE A LONG DAY FOR QB GUS FERROTTE, AND A LONGER DAY FOR RB PETERSON.<o
></o><o
></o>RECOMMENDATION: 78% OF THE MONEY IS ON TENNESSEE TO COVER, AND THAT’S THE ONLY THING THAT SCARES ME FROM TAKING THE TITANS.<o
></o><o
></o>MONEY LINE TENNESSEE<o
></o>ATS TENNESSE –3.0<o
></o>OVER/UNDER OVER 36.0<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>42.5 GREEN BAY 20<o
></o>-1.0 TAMPA BAY 21<o
></o><o
></o>WELL 65% OF THE MONEY IS ON GREEN BAY TO COVER. GB HAS BEEN GETTING THIS GREAT PRESS HYPE WITH TO HOT START OF QB RODGERS, WHICH IS THE LASTING IMPRESSION ON THE PUBLIC. KEEP IN MIND THAT BOTH THESE TEAMS ARE EVENLY MATCHED, AND THAT IS WHY THE LINE IS ONLY 1 POINT. HERE’S MY REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE TAMPA BAY. GREEN BAY’S DEFENSIVE LINE SURRENDERS 5.5 YARDS PER CARRY. GREISE ON THE ROAD LAST WEEK IN CHICAGO THREW 67 PASSES FOR 407 YARDS. GREEN BAY RANKS 22<SUP>ND</SUP> VS THE PASS ON DEFENSE, AND WILL BE WITHOUT AL HARRIS AT CORNERBACK, AND LACKS DEPTH AT THE CORNER POSITION. TAMPA BAY MAY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY ONCE AGAIN LIKE THEY DID LAST WEEK WITH OPENING THE RUN, AND FEEDING OFF THE PLAY ACTION PASS TO KEEP GREEN BAY’S DEFENSE OFF BALANCE. GAME TIME TEMP IS EXPECTED TO BE 92 DEGREES, THAT MEANS 100 DEGREES ON THE PLAYING FIELD, ADVANTAGE TAMPA BAY.<o
></o><o
></o>RECOMMENDATION: TAMPA BAY –1.0, AND PLAY THE UNDER<o
></o><o
></o>MONEY LINE TAMPA BAY<o
></o>ATS TAMPA BAY –1.0<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 42.5 <o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>44.5 ARIZONA 20<o
></o>-1.0 NY JETS 21<o
></o><o
></o>LAST IMPRESSIONS. LAST WEEK JETS SHOWED THE NATIONAL TV AUDIENCE THAT THEY HAVE NO PASS RUSH, OR PASS DEFENSE VS AN EXPLOSIVE SD OFFENSE. NOW THEY FACE FITZGERALD, AND BOLDIN WHOM BOTH SHOULD HAVE BIG DAYS. ARIZONA REMAINED EAST FOR TWO WEEKS AFTER LOSING IN WASHINGTON. THE PUBLIC IS DIVIDED ON THIS GAME , AND THE MONEY LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE JET’S SIDE.<o
></o>EXPECT A CLOSE GAME, FARVE SHOULD REBOUND, AND JETS WIN BY A FIELD GOAL. WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED IF THIS GAME WENT INTO OVERTIME.<o
></o><o
></o>RECOMMENDATION: SEE NOTHING STRONG ON THIS PLAY EXPECT MAYBE TAKING THE UNDER.<o
></o><o
></o>MONEY LINE NY JETS<o
></o>ATS NY JETS –1.0<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 44.5<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>47.0 DENVER 27<o
></o>9.5 KANSAS CITY 20<o
></o><o
></o>HERE IS A TRAP GAME. WE ALL KNOW THAT THE CHIEF’S ARE ONE OF THE WORST TEAMS IN THE NFL. LAST WEEK, DENVER DISPLAYED THEIR OFFENSIVE MIGHT VS THE SAINTS. THROW THE STATS OUT, AND ANY BAD IMPRESSIONS YOU HAVE TOWARDS KC. FIRST, QB SWITCH WAS MADE QB HUARD IN FOR THIGPEN. THIGPEN PLAIN OUT SUCKS, AND IF HE WAS STARTING THIS GAME, DENVER WOULD RUN AWAY WITH IT. HUARD WITH EXPERIENCE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THE BALL ON A LOUSY BRONCO DEFENSE RANKED 22<SUP>ND</SUP> VS THE RUN, AND LAST 32<SUP>ND</SUP> VS THE PASS. (THIS QB CHANGE UP WORKED FOR THE VIKES LAST WEEK AS DOGS VS CAROLINA LAST WEEK). HUARD KNOWS HOW TO CONTROL THE TEMPO, AND RUN A HERM EDWARDS CONSERVATIVE GAME PLAN. RUN THE BALL, KILL THE CLOCK, KEEP THE BALL AWAY FROM THE DENVER OFFENSE. DENVER IS COMING OFF TWO CONSECUTIVE EMOTIONAL WINS AT HOME, AND NOW TRAVEL ON THE ROAD, AND MAY NOT BE FOCUSED. CHIEFS WILL SHOW UP FOR THIS CONTEST AND PLAY HARD. THEY MAY NOT WIN, BUT THEY CAN COVER THE NUMBER.<o
></o><o
></o>RECOMMENDATION: SLEEPER/DOG PLAY TAKE KC. ATS/ TEASER.<o
></o><o
></o>MONEY LINE DENVER<o
></o>ATS KANSAS CITY +9.5<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 47.0<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>45.5 SAN DIEGO 24<o
></o>+8.0 OAKLAND 17<o
></o><o
></o>THE ONLY ANGLE THAT BOTHERS ME ABOUT THIS GAME IS THAT THE PUBLIC’S MONEY 90% IS ON THE CHARGERS. THE CHARGERS OWN THE RAIDERS. SD BEATEN OAKLAND 9 STRAIGHT GAMES. 8 OF 9 OF THOSE GAMES WERE DECIDED BY A TD OR MORE. 6 WERE SD DOUBLE DIGIT WINS.OAKLAND PLAY HORRIBLE AT HOME, SD HAS TOO MANY OFFENSIVE WEAPONS, LT PLAYS HIS BEST FOOTBAL VS THE RAIDERS. RAIDERS OVERRATED SECONDARY NOT PLAYING TO THEIR POTENTIAL. <o
></o><o
></o>RECOMMENDATION: IF YOU TAKE SD YOU WILL NEED TO SCORE A TD AND FG TO COVER. 2 SCORES , BASED ON COMMON MATHEMATICAL NUMBERS OF POINTS IN ALL GAMES 3,7,10. 13. 14. 17. 20. 21. SO GIVING UP 8 IS LIKE GIVING UP 9. SD WERE 9.5 FAVORITES LAST WEEK VS THE JETS THAT RANKED 21<SUP>ST</SUP> VS THE PASS, AND NOW PLAY OAKLAND RANKED 26<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE PASS?. TRAP GAME?.<o
></o><o
></o>MONEY LINE SAN DIEGO<o
></o>ATS OAKLAND +8.0<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 45.5<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>43.0 BUFFALO 24<o
></o>+8.0 ST LOUIS 14<o
></o><o
></o>I LIKE BUFFALO BUT LAYIN 8 ON THE ROAD?. AT THIS POINT ST LOUIS IS THE WORST NFL TEAM. THEY BENCHED QB BULGER FOR QB TRENT GREEN?. BIG MISTAKE !!!, BULGER IS A GOOD NFL QB, HE JUST DOESN’T HAVE AN OFFENSIVE LINE TO PROTECT HIM. STARTING GREEN AT QB IS LIKE RUNNING OUT A DEER IN HEADLIGHTS. BUFFALO’S PASS RUSH WILL CRUSH GREEN AND HIS CREAM PUFF OFFENSIVE LINE. PEOPLE WONDER WHY THE BILLS HAVE BECOME SO GOOD OVER NIGHT. WELL, IT WAS THE DRAFT. IN 2006 THEY ADDED 5 STARTERS AND 2 RESERVES TO THEIR ROSTER. 6 OF THOSE 7 PLAYERS ARE PLAYING GREAT DEFENSE. BILLS WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THIS GAME AFTER A WAKE UP CALL VS OAKLAND LAST WEEK. ST LOUIS RANKS 28<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE RUN, AND 30<SUP>TH</SUP> VS THE PASS ON DEFENSE. ST LOUIS RANKS 32<SUP>ND</SUP> ON OFFENSE RUSHING, AND ONLY 27<SUP>TH</SUP> PASSING.<o
></o><o
></o>RECOMMEDATION: CANT SEE ST LOUIS AT ALL, PROBLEM IS 79% OF THE PUBLIC IS ON BUFFALO TO COVER, AND BUFFALO IS BIG FAVS ON THE ROAD, IF YOU NEED TO PLAY TEASE IT DOWN AND PLAY THE BILLS, OR DON’T PLAY THIS GAME AT ALL.<o
></o><o
></o>MONEY LINE: BUFFALO<o
></o>ATS BUFFALO –8.0<o
></o>OVER/UNDER- UNDER 43.0<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>48.0 SAN FRANCISCO 20<o
></o>-5.0 NEW ORLEANS 26<o
></o><o
></o>I LIKE NEW ORLEANS IN THIS SPOT. SF HASN’T PLAYED ANYONE. WEEK 1 THEY PLAYED ARIZONA, WEEK 2 SEATTLE, WEEK 3 DETROIT. THEIR SEATTLE VICTORY CAME AT THE EXPENSE OF THE MANY KEY INJURIES TO THE SEAHAWK STARTING LINEUP, AND THEIR WIN WAS DECEIVING. THEN LAST WEEK THEY PLAYED DETROIT, ENOUGH SAID. NOW SF TRAVELS ON THE ROAD TO FACE THE SAINTS WHO PLAYED DENVER IN A TOUGH LOSS AWAY, TAMPA BAY, AND WASHINGTON. ALTHOUGH THE SAINTS HAVE INJURIES, THEY HAVE ENOUGH FIREPOWER TO REALLY TEST SF SECONDARY. I THINK RB MC CALLISTER MAY RETURN TO THE SAINTS LINEUP THIS GAME AND WILL GIVE THE SAINTS A BOOST, IN THE MUST WIN<o
></o><o
></o>RECOMMEDATION: TAKE THE SAINTS LAY THE –5.0 POINTS<o
></o><o
></o>MONEY LINE NEW ORLEANS<o
></o>ATS NEW ORLEANS –5<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 48.0<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>46.0 WASHINGTON 17<o
></o>-11.0 DALLAS 30<o
></o><o
></o>TAHE THE BOYS HERE, THE MONEY IS BEING LAID ON THE SKINS GETTING 11. WASH JASON TAYLOR OUT, WILL AFFECT THEIR PASS RUSH. WASH ALLOWS 5.2 YARDS PER GAME ON RUSH DEFENSE. WITHOUT JASON TAYLOR, THIS WILL FORCE THE SKINS TO PLAY ONE ONONE COVERAGE ON DALLAS WIDE RCEIVERS, AND LOOK FOR TERRELL OWENS TO HAVE A HUGE DAY. DALLAS HAS 10 PASS RUSH SACKS ON THE SEASON, AND THIS TIME QB CAMPBELL WILL BE LEFT STRANDED WITH HIS WEST COAST OFFENSE ON THE EAST COAST. THIS IS A REVENGE GAME FOR DALLAS. LAST SEASON, WEEK #17, THE SKINS DESTROYED DALLAS. THE TEMP AT GAME TIME ON THE FIELD SHOULD BE AT 100 DEGREES.<o
></o><o
></o>RECOMMENDATION: THIS IS MY BEST BET OF THE WEEK, BET DALLAS ACROSS THE BOARD.<o
></o><o
></o>MONEY LINE DALLS<o
></o>ATS DALLAS –11.0<o
></o>OVER/UNDER : OVER 46.0<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>40.0 PHILADELPHIA 20<o
></o>+3.0 CHICAGO 17<o
></o><o
></o>YOU HAVE TO WONDER WHY THE EAGLES ARE ONLY 3.0 PT FAVS. VEGAS SHOULD HAVE SET THE LINE AT 6. WITHOUT QUESTION, PHILADELPHIA ON PAPER IS THE PLAY, BUT WITH 86% OF THE PUBLIC JUMPING ON THEIR BAND WAGON , ONE MUST WONDER IF THIS IS A VEGAS TRAP PLAY. THE REASON WHY I THINK THE BEARS CAN SQUEEZE THIS GAME OUT IS THAT PHILA MAY BE FLAT OVER THEIR BIG STATE RIVAL VICTORY OVER PITTSBURGH LAST WEEK. ALTHOUGH BOTH ARE STARTING THIS GAME, ONE HAS TO WONDER ABOUT THE INJURIES TO QB MC NABB (UPPER CHEST BRUISE) AND RB WESTBROOK (AANKLE SPRAIN). THESE TWO ARE THE GLUE OF THEIR OFFENSE. WITHOUT THEM AT 100 %, OR IF THEY CANNOT FINISH THE GAME COULD PLAY INTO THE CHICAGO BEAR’S HANDS.<o
></o><o
></o>RECOMMEDATION: THIS IS A TRAP, NO PLAY.<o
></o><o
></o>MONEY LINE PHILADELPHIA<o
></o>ATS: CHICAGO<o
></o>OVER/UNDER: UNDER 40.0<o
></o><o
></o><o
></o>BROOKLYNWORM’S BEST BETS
<o
></o>AGAINST THE SPREAD<o
></o>KANSAS CITY +9.5
NEW ORLEANS –5<o
></o>DALLAS –11<o
></o><o
></o>7 POINT TEASERS<o
></o>KANSAS CITY +16.5
NEW ORLEANS +2<o
></o>DALLAS –4<o
></o><o
></o>TEASER UNDERDOGS
HOUSTON +14
ATLANTA +13.5<o
></o>CLEVELAND +10.5<o
></o><o
></o>OVER/UNDERS
<o
></o>IF YOU PLAY ALL THE NFL GAMES UNDER THE TOTAL, YOU SHOULD WIN 9 GAMES AND MAKE A PROFIT ON THIS WEEK #4 NFL BYE WEEK SCHEDULE FEATURING 14 GAMES.
<o
></o>GOOD LUCK TOO ALL<o
></o>BROOKLYNWORM<o
></o><o
></o>
