Brooklynworm's 2016 nfl picks, and predictions, week # 7.

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CHICAGO (46) @ GREEN BAY (-8)

I learned a lesson in handicapping Thursday Night Football. Avoid taking the Road Team, on a short work week, which has less time to prepare. Both sides are banged up, on both sides of the ball. The Packers haven’t a healthy running back, and their secondary is hurting. Chicago, will take advantage of Green Bay’s woes, with their hot handed back up QB Hoyer. So look for the football to be thrown often, since the Packers front seven are difficult to run on. The Bears, have a banged up secondary. Erase all that negative talk, with regards to Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers will show up for this game, and his offensive line will give him the pass protection he needs to hook up with his receivers. Lastly, Chicago plays awful, when they travel to Lambeau Field. PREDICTED SCORE: GREEN BAY 30 CHICAGO 23. TAKE CHICAGO +8, AND PLAY OVER 46.
NEW YORK GIANTS (43.5) @ LOS ANGELES (+3) LONDON.
I don’t know what you can expect from these two jet lag teams, with both offense averaging under 20 points per game. Los Angeles, has lost two straight, after a good start. The Giants, luckily broke their 3 game losing streak, with Beckham Jr, scoring the winning TD, on their last play. LA, looks like they are losing momentum, and the Giants may have turned their fortunes around. The Rams haven’t played well defensively, in their last two losses. The Giants have the offensive playmakers, with Cruz, and Beckham Jr., to exploit them. Question is, will Eli Manning, buy time in the pocket, and get pass protection from his awful offensive line? The Rams game plan should be simple, run Todd Gurley every chance they get, and avoid their inept QB Keenum from passing the ball, and making mistakes. Keep in mind, the Giants banged up secondary, is now at full strength for this game. This is most likely going to be a low scoring game, and I am not too excited picking either side. PREDICTED SCORE: NEW YORK GIANTS 21 LOS ANGELES 17. TAKE NY GIANTS -3, AND PLAY UNDER 43.5.
BALTIMORE (41.5) @ NEW YORK JETS (-1)
One of my handicapping rules is, always look to play the losing team, that was humiliated on national TV, the following week (Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football). Well, the Jets, were certainly humiliated last Monday Night, losing 28 – 3. As bad as the Jets have played during the season, they may have an edge over Baltimore this contest. The. Ravens, aren’t the same team we have been accustomed to watching in years past. The Ravens, always had that tenacious defense, to make up for any offensive deficiencies, and won games. In 2016, the offensive is lackluster at best, and they already fired their Offensive Coordinator. Their defense, is a shell of themselves, especially with the list of the many injuries they have suffered. In reality, the Baltimore 3-3 record is deceiving, and if it weren’t for lucky breaks, their record would have been no better than the hapless Jets. In addition, The status of one of their key players Steve Smith is questionable, and if he plays, he won’t be at 100%.As bad as the Jets secondary has played, I can’t see Flacco, avoiding the Jet pass rush, to attack it. PREDICTED SCORE: NEW YORK JETS 23 BALTIMORE 21, TAKE NY JETS -1, AND PLAY OVER 41.5.
SEATTLE (43.5) @ ARIZONA (-1.5)
This is a tough one. At this point in the season, I give Seattle the slight edge over Arizona. Although Seattle’s defense is banged up, they still have the ability on defense, to come up with the big play. I have my doubts about Carson Palmer, and I have questioned his quarterback play since the preseason. Carson, and the Cardinals may have had a solid game last Monday Night, destroying the Lowly Jets. Basically, most of the offense came from RB David Johnson. The Cardinals didn’t do much offensively in the first half, and it looked like the Jets gave up in the second half. Thus the lopsided score of 28-3. Now, I learned that Carson Palmer, came up lame at the end of the Jet game, with a hamstring injury. Palmer, hasn’t played well when healthy, and this injury, could only hinder his performance. Seattle’s QB Wilson, hasn’t still regained his full mobility, however, I still think he is the better quarterback in this contest. Look for Seattle, to cash in on Arizona turnovers. PREDICTED SCORE: SEATTLE 20 ARIZONA 19, TAKE SEATTLE +1.5, and PLAY UNDER 43.5.
MINNESOTA (40) @ PHILADELPHIA (+2.5)
Looks like the wheels are coming off in Philadelphia. The offensive line is struggling, and their rookie QB Wentz, is now getting pressured in the pocket. Minnesota’s defense, should make the rookie’s life miserable. Not only will Wentz be pass rushed, the Viking front seven on defense, will stuff the run. The news is that they may not have the services of their best wide receiver, or if he plays, he will not be at 100%.Minnesota, on offense, should be able to move the football. The Eagles secondary is inept, and can’t cover, and their front seven, is having difficulty stopping the run. Bradford’s excellent offensive line, is stellar in pass blocking, and Bradford should be able to get some good reads. I like Minnesota in this spot. PREDICTED SCORE: MINNESOTA 20 PHILADELPHIA 13. TAKE MINNESOTA -2 .5, PLAY UNDER 40.
NEW ORLEANS (50.5) @ KANSAS CITY (-7)
KC, faced a terrible Oakland Raider defense last week, and managed to score 26 points, with a limited offense. Now they face a Saint defense, which allows the opposition to score on an average of 33.6 points per game. Expect KC to run at will against the New Orleans front seven. Once the run is established, QB Smith should be able to buy time in the pocket, when he turns to play action passing. At the other end, don’t count Brees out. He is an elite QB that has the weapons on offense, to light up the scoreboard. This Kansas City defense, isn’t the same elite group of players, from 2015 team. So with that being said, they could be had, and surrender points. PREDICTED SCORE KANSAS CITY 30 NEW ORLEANS 24, TAKE NEW ORLEANS +7, AND PLAY OVER 50.5.
WASHINGTON (48.5) @ DETROIT (-1)
I can see both sides moving the ball. I can see QB Matt Stafford , hooking up with his wide receivers. I can see Washington, utilizing the run, versus a depleted Lion defensive front seven. Cousins should have a good game here, however, there is always doubt. Detroit lacks a consistent pass rush, and this should help Cousins in the pocket. The only reason why I like Detroit here, is that Washington must travel to London next week. The trend is real bad for those teams that are about to travel abroad. PREDICTED SCORE: DETROIT 27 WASHINGTON 24, TAKE DETROIT -1, and PLAY OVER 48.5.
CLEVELAND (46) @ CINCINNATI (-10)
We established the fact, that the Cleveland Browns, are the worst team in the NFL. The Browns only fire power on offense, is RB Terrelle Pryor. Word is, that Pryor suffered a hamstring injury last Sunday. He will play, but won’t be at 100%. Since the Brown’s offense shouldn’t be a threat, watch for Cincinnati play eight in the box, to shut the run, and the short passing routes down. The Bengal secondary, is a shell of themselves from last season. . On offense, the Bengals will not be able to run on Cleveland’s stout front seven, and expect Cincinnati stall many drives in the Red Zone. PREDICTED SCORE: CINCINNATI 26 CLEVELAND 19, CLEVELAND +10, and PLAY UNDER 46.
BUFFALO (45) @ MIAMI (+3)
The money is all going on Buffalo, and their four game winning streak. The main reason why Buffalo has been so successful, is Le Sean McCoy. However, Shady, now goes up against a Miami front seven, that stops the run. I can see Miami slowing McCoy, and pressuring Tyrod Taylor in the pocket the entire game. An effective pass rush by Miami will be key, to cover up their inept play in their secondary. Miami’s offensive line is now healthy, and at full strength. They can run the football against the Bills, and I expect Ajayi to produce another good game. If Miami can establish the run, this will open up their passing game, against a superior Buffalo secondary. The line is, that Miami is the dog at home? I am starting to see an upset in the making. PREDICTED SCORE MIAMI 21, BUFFALO 20, TAKE MIAMI +3, AND PLAY UNDER 45.
OAKLAND (49) @ JACKSONVILLE (-1)
Oakland was whipped by KC last weekend, in the rain, and wind. Since Oakland doesn’t have the personnel to execute a running game, they couldn’t fight the elements. Jacksonville’s running game, isn’t worthy enough to be a factor in this spot. To top that off, both teams don’t have an adequate pass rush, to pressure the opposing QB. So it’s “bombs way”. I don’t trust Bortles at quarterback. He is mistake prone, and has cost his team’s games. The more consistent QB, has been Carr, and I trust his judgement and ability, more so than Bortles. Problem is, I don’t know if this is a trap game? A one O’clock start on the East coast. The public is heavy on the Raiders to win, and cover the spread. Regardless, I can’t make myself pick the Jaguars in this spot. PREDICTED SCORE OAKLAND 28 JACKSONVILLE 27, TAKE OAKLAND +1, AND PLAY OVER 49.
INDIANAPOLIS (48.5) @ TENNESSEE (-2.5)
The Colts are a total disaster in 2016. They can’t stop anyone on defense, and can’t defend against the run. Big game ahead for De Marco Murray. In addition, look for QB Mariota , to find Kendall Wright often, in the Colt secondary. Defensively, Tennessee, has a tremendous pass rush, and they shouldn’t have any issues with the Colts soft offensive line. Indianapolis, doesn’t have the personnel, nor are they ever game ready. The Titans only weakness, is their secondary, and this will be the only open avenue, for Andrew Luck to score points. PREDICTED SCORE: TENNESSEE 27 INDIANAPOLIS 24, TAKE TENNESSEE -2.5, AND PLAY OVER 48.5.
SAN DIEGO (53.5) @ ATLANTA (-6.5)
Atlanta, showed us last week how explosive their offense is, versus one of the best defenses in the NFL on the road. So how does San Diego expect to stop Atlanta’s scoring machine in their friendly confines? San Diego’s secondary is dinged up, and they have no one to cover Julio Jones. Even if San Diego takes Jones out of the game, what about all the rest of the Falcons offensive weapons? An Diego’s only chance defensively, is to gamble with several blitz packages, and pressure, and hurry Matt Ryan in the pocket. Expect QB Rivers to play his game, and rely on his RB Melvin Gordon. My only question about the Seahawks covering this line, are they emotionally spent, after losing a tough one in Seattle last week, and coming off two straight west coast trips? PREDICTED SCORE: ATLANTA 27 SAN DIEGO 24, TAKE SAN DIEGO +6.5, AND PLAY UNDER 53.5.
TAMPA BAY (47.5) @ SAN FRANCISCO (+2)
I consider Cleveland, and San Francisco, as the worst teams in the NFL. In third place, Tampa Bay. So I guess somebody had to be named the favorite in this game. Last week, SF, was hoping to get lightening from a bottle, when they started Kaepernick at QB. Once again, Kaepernick has proven his ineptness at the position, and the Niners were trampled on by Buffalo 45-16. Although SF faces a weak opponent, Tampa Bay on paper, looks like they are matched up against a Super Bowl team. San Francisco’s defense is beyond terrible. So QB Winston should have a field day passing to Mike Evans. When Winston isn’t passing, he will be gaining yardage running with the football. In addition, RB Doug Martin is due back for this game. If he returns, San Francisco’s front seven will be hopeless defending the run. With all that said. This is a game a handicapper must tread lightly. Although I want to pick TB to win this game, this is the type of game SF wins. I name this pick my, “It doesn’t make sense pick”. PREDICTED SCORE: SAN FRANCISCO 28 TAMPA BAY 27, TAKE SAN FRANCISCO +2, AND PLAY OVER 47.5.
NEW ENGLAND (45.5) @ PITTSBURGH (+7)
Without Roethlisberger, I don’t see how the Steelers will have a chance, with Larry Jones at quarterback. This means that Pittsburgh, will have to keep the ball on the ground, and limit their backup QB throwing short passes. So expect RB Bell, to get at least 20 touches in this game. Also expect New England to counter, by playing eight in the box, to force Jones’ hand downfield. The Patriot offense, is loaded for this game. The Steelers best defender, and pass rusher will be out, and expect Brady, to have all day in the pocket, to find his targets. This means the Patriot offense, will spread the football around, and keep the ball on the ground with Blount. PREDICTED SCORE: NEW ENGLAND 30 PITTSBURGH 17, TAKE NEW ENGLAND -7, AND PLAY OVER 45.5.
HOUSTON (41.5) @ DENVER (-7.5)
QB Brock Osweiler, was behind 14 points to the lowly Colts, and managed to come back in the fourth quarter, and win in overtime. Usually, one would praise, and applaud a quarterback, for such a comeback. In this case, the opposite applies. How come Houston’s offense struggled for three quarters, against one of the worst NFL defenses? The Texans, should have trounced the Colts, and been in control from the start. So now they face a Denver team that plays outstanding defense on both sides of the ball, and wants to revenge their humiliating loss on national TV. Don’t forget, last season, Texan QB Osweiler was a Bronco. So you better believe the Denver coaching staff has a game plan, to attack his weaknesses. Houston’s defense is banged up. With all their injuries, their defense isn’t the same since the start of the season. So expect Denver, to find it easier to move the football down field. This is my pick of the week. PREDICTED SCORE: DENVER 27 HOUSTON 13. TAKE DENVER -7.5, AND PLAY UNDER 41.5.
 

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B/worm........solid capping and thought's.........BOL with all your action this weekend.............indy
 

2005 LAS VEGAS HILTON CHAMPION
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Once again excellent capping worm !! My Top play of the week is Denver posted on my thread I love them on Monday Night !!!!! My top 4 in order we agree on are the Broncos, chargers, Saints, and dolphins !!! I am looking at 2 other games and I see your on those as well!!!! I like the bears+8 on a small lean, but in reading your handicapping I thought you would side with the packers ???



cheers

tsf:toast:
 

Your Bookies Worest Enemy
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Thanks for posting, it was a good read, have an assume week!!!
 
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I had my Money on Hoyer. Soon as he broke his arm, you knew immediately it was game, set, and match. This would have been a closer game, if he was there in the second half, and the Bears would have covered the spread.
 
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I had my Money on Hoyer. Soon as he broke his arm, you knew immediately it was game, set, and match. This would have been a closer game, if he was there in the second half, and the Bears would have covered the spread.

I had the Packers -8.5 and when they scored the defensive touchdown the line dropped to -3 I couldn't believe it with Hoyer being out. I doubled out and made out +£400 for the night.
 

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Wormy with you on all but a few.

Really appreciate your efforts. BOL this week.:toast:
 

I can't dance
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Hi BW, the Buffalo Miami game, Sean Mccoy the running back could be out for the Bills, and the Bills will see their rookie linebacker a 1st round draft choice to debut. According to the coach Rex Ryan, he was impressed by his edge rushing and ability to defend passes in practice. One piece subtract from the offensive, one piece added to the defense.

Miami has some injuries too, as both their top two tight ends are in concussion protocol and will not play.

Miami lost twice to the Rex Ryan Bills last season out scored 74-31, and Buffalo has won five of six meetings past three seasons.

Buffalo is for real, while we do not know if Miami is even a .500 team.

The Bills lead the league in rushing, and only second in sacks. Denver has the most, Minnesota is third in sacks.

So Miami has to run the ball to have a decent chance, but are without their top two tight ends, with Buffalo looking to have a even solid front seven with their returning players on defense. If Miami has to pass, then they are looking at a very good passing rushing team.

Well, if Miami has not figured out the Bills the past few times, not sure if they can tomorrow, especially with Buffalo on a roll in a divisional game. Last week, Miami played an opponent who decided to lay another egg on the road. That is the only way they can win, if Miami's opponent lays another egg on the road, to expect the visitors to lay an egg in back to back weeks is asking a lot in the NFL. Just that angle got to go with Buffalo again.

The Sunday night game, kind of like Arizona at home. Just seems that the Seattle defense is one step slower than compared to their hey day, which was when they won it all. Who knows, another year, another step slower.

The other thing about this game, this is the true measuring stick of how good are these two teams. Their record so far, both have lost to Los Angeles. That was Seattle's only loss. Otherwise they beat the bad on their schedule, and barely got by a road weary team in Atlanta last week. If it weren't for the missed pass interference call on their final offensive play, Atlanta could have had a chance pull that one out too.

Same with Arizona, they beat the bad teams but loss to New England and Buffalo, both decent teams.

Seattle's safety Kam Chancellor, did not play last week which kind of explains how Atlanta was able to score those three straight TD from passing to almost take the game. He's not playing this week either. That could be the difference in a game like this.

Best of luck to your plays this weekend BW!

popcorn-eatinggif
 

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Hey BK BOL buddy, thanks for the detailed writeups, always look forward to reading.


I was wondering do you keep a record? Just curious
 
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My record of all games thru week 6, is as follows.....

STRAIGHT UP: 55-37-0 , 60% , AGAINST THE SPREAD 51-40-1, 56%, OVER/UNDER TOTALS: 49-42-1, 54%.
 

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nice weekend pal... well done... go broncos!!!
 
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When you say "BIG" play is it bigger than the normal sides & totals? Thanks for all your hard work BW.

Varkeyboy, and to everyone else. Thank You. When i said Denver was my big play, I meant it was my big play. So far, it was my play of the year. My largest wager of the 2016 season, was plunked down on the Broncos.
 

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B/worm.........solid capping YTD.............continued success with your action this week............indy
 

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