Brokered GOP convention? No way. Yes, way

[The Guesser]

This time, it really could happen. Trump ain't going nowhere, Cruz ain't Going nowhere, and at least one in the somewhat sane lane(Kasich, Jeb, Rubio) ain't going nowhere. There will be at least 3 in for the long haul, and their support is pretty evenly split. Trump is gonna get about 30-40, Cruz is gonna get about 30, and the sane lane is gonna get about 30-35. The only way I can see avoiding it is the sane lane to anoint one guy before March 15, when the Primaries become winner take all. Their best shot is Kasich now that Rubio showed how vulnerable he is in the debate, and Bush still has his biggest weakness, his last name. But I doubt they'll do it, so all 3 are likely in until March 15, when Florida and Ohio have their primaries. If Kasich wins Ohio, and/or one of the Florida guys Win Florida, Buckle up for the Brokered Convention. Here are the states March 15 and onward that will decide if we're brokered or not.

MARCH 15, 2016

Florida

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 99 Total Delegates
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Illinois

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 69 Total Delegates
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Missouri

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 52 Total Delegates
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North Carolina

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 72 Total Delegates
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Ohio

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 66 Total Delegates
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Northern Mariana Islands

Type of Primary: Caucus
Number of Delegates: 9 Total Delegates
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​

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MARCH 22, 2016

Arizona

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 58 Total Delegates
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Utah

Type of Primary: Caucus
Number of Delegates: 40 Total Delegates
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​

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APRIL 5, 2016

Wisconsin

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 42 Total Delegates
Learn More
​

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APRIL 19, 2016

New York

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 95 Total Delegates
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​

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APRIL 26, 2016

Connecticut

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 28 Total Delegates
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Delaware

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 16 Total Delegates
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Maryland

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 38 Total Delegates
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Pennsylvania

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 71 Total Delegates
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Rhode Island

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 19 Total Delegates
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​

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MAY 3, 2016

Indiana

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 57 Total Delegates
Learn More
​

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MAY 10, 2016

Nebraska

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 36 Total Delegates
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West Virginia

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 34 Total Delegates
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​

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MAY 17, 2016

Oregon

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 28 Total Delegates
Learn More
​

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MAY 24, 2016

Washington

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 44 Total Delegates
Learn More
​

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JUNE 7, 2016

California

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 172 Total Delegates
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Montana

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 27 Total Delegates
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New Jersey

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 51 Total Delegates
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New Mexico

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 24 Total Delegates
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South Dakota

Type of Primary: Primary
Number of Delegates: 29 Total Delegates
Learn More
​

Brokered GOP convention? No way. Yes, way…

BY CHUCK MCFADDEN POSTED 02.09.2016
TWITTERFACEBOOKEMAIL
The conventional wisdom says fuggedaboutit.
Pundits, campaign managers, and the politicians themselves express doubt about the possibility. Not as much as previously, but still doubt.
It might happen. And California could be in the middle of it all.
There is growing buzz that the 2016 Republican convention won’t be the usual long and tightly scripted infomercial for a political party that conventions have become over the past 55 years or so.
Instead, even after the hullabaloo of Iowa and New Hampshire, it may be a “brokered” convention, where no candidate arrives in Cleveland on July 18 with sufficient delegates to wrap up the nomination on the first or second ballot.
“It’s hard for me to see why a round of brokering in Cleveland isn’t the most likely outcome,” says Daniel Heninger, deputy editor of the Wall Street Journal’s editorial page. “None of these candidates looks likely to pull away and capture the majority of primary delegates before the party’s nominating convention in Cleveland next July.”

The primary calendar is set up so that there probably will not be a nominee by mid-March, as in past years.
​

Speaking about the possibility of a Trump/Cruz/Rubio standoff as the convention opens, The Economist, that astute British observer of all things American, had this to say:
“A three-horse race could even mean that no candidate wins a majority of delegates … the candidates would then try to woo each other’s delegates at the convention in July, something that last happened in 1948.”
If there really is a brokered convention, California will become, at least for a few days, a major player in national Republican politics.
Here’s how the improbable is becoming, if not probable, at least much more likely than it was three months ago:
The primary calendar is set up so that there probably will not be a nominee by mid-March, as in past years. That’s because many of the early-voting states award delegates on a proportional basis, which means Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, maybe Marco Rubio, may be sufficiently effective against each other to prevent a single candidate from emerging as the clear party choice. The three, or maybe just two of them, could be separated by only a few delegates.
If it indeed remains Trump/Cruz/Rubio after Super Tuesday (March 1), along with a few surviving stragglers, we’ll still have a relatively large number of candidates. So we may not have anyone with a lead commanding enough to steamroller through the convention on the first ballot. Remember, even candidates with poll numbers in the single digits, at least a few of them, will in all likelihood be able to slog on, even with minimal campaign funds, until July, hoping all the while for a miracle.
Republican guru Karl Rove last November saw five candidates who could hang on until the convention: Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Jeb! Bush, and Ben Carson. (Carson has been fading since then.)
Given that situation, the low-polling hopefuls may still control sufficient delegates to prevent any of the presumed-as-of-today top candidates to clinch the nomination on the first ballot. And so the deal-making will begin.
Enter California.
Here’s what the Party says what delegates from California must do in Cleveland, according to the The Official Guide to the 2016 Republican Nominating Process:
“Each delegate to the Republican National Convention shall use his or her best efforts at the convention for the party’s presidential nominee candidate from California to whom the delegate has pledged support until the person is nominated for the office of President of the United States by the convention, receives less than 10 percent of the votes for nomination by the convention, releases the delegate from his or her obligation, or until two convention nominating ballots have been taken. Thereafter, each delegate shall be free to vote as he or she chooses ….” (emphasis added.)
No less an expert on Republican politics than Rove thinks a breakaway will happen. Here’s what he had to say in the Wall Street Journal last month:
“The GOP will hold its first multi-ballot convention since 1948. Delegates will be fractured — with many legally bound, for at least two ballots, to support the winner of their state or district — and at least two ballots will be required. But the candidate with the most delegates going in will win.”
If things are sufficiently muddled so the convention goes to three ballots, it becomes a free-for-all. The Golden State will have 172 delegates of the 1,237 required to secure nomination. That’s a considerable number to swing behind anyone, especially if the delegation doesn’t split into factions.
However slim the possibility might be, the California Republican Party (CRP) wants no part of speculation about what might happen this summer in Cleveland.
“The CRP won’t be commenting on the possibility of a brokered convention in Cleveland, said party spokeswoman Kaityln MacGregor in an email.
But while they want to keep mum on the possibility now, California Republicans may find themselves in an unaccustomed catbird seat after a tumultuous but indecisive five and one-half months.
In the meantime political reporters can entertain wistful thoughts about what might happen — even if it probably won’t.

 

[superbeets]

Why is America so angry with its politicians?



[h=2]The American people have had enough and are turning on their government.[/h]

By Nick Allen, and Ruth Sherlock in New Hampshire, graphics by Chris Newell

5:23PM GMT 09 Feb 2016


At a recent debate on the presidential campaign trail, Donald Trump summed up America in 2016.

"I will gladly accept the mantle of anger," he said. "People are very angry because our country is being run horribly."

Many people outside the US have struggled to understand the transformation of Mr Trump from billionaire property mogul and television star to perhaps the next Republican presidential nominee.

Polls suggest Donald Trump maintains a dominant lead against his GOP rivals in New Hampshire ahead of Tuesday's primary

It happened because, more than any other candidate, he recognised that vast swathes of America are not just annoyed with their government - they are at boiling point.

The bubbling discontent covers a myriad of issues including poverty, border protection and immigration, the mistreatment of military veterans, and spiralling health care costs.


At its heart is a fundamental breakdown of trust in government. For manyAmericans, Washington seems a long way away populated by venal politicians with their snouts in the trough who have left the rest of the country behind


Here we examine the anti-establishment backlash behind Mr Trump's popularity:

 

[superbeets]

[h=3]Here are five reasons why:[/h]
[h=1]Why Obama is hated[/h]From holding a coffee while saluting Marines to his views on gun control, here are five reasons why Mr Obama is vehemently disliked

• [h=2]Obamacare[/h]
  
  
  PROTESTS AGAINST OBAMACARE
  Mr Obama's Affordable Care Act means millions more Americans have access to health insurance, but insurance companies have raised premiums for the middle class. Republican presidential candidates, including Mr Trump, have vowed to rip it up and start again.
  
  
  
  
• [h=2]Executive action[/h]
  
  
  MR OBAMA DELIVERS REMARKS ON HIS EXECUTIVE ACTION ON IMMIGRATION AT DEL SOL HIGH SCHOOL IN LAS VEGAS IN 2014
  Stymied by a Congress that will not pass his proposals, Mr Obama has taken to bypassing the legislature and using "executive action". Many Americans believe he wants to fundamentally change the country and has abused his authority under the constitution. Chris Christie, the Republican presidential candidate, accused Mr Obama of "acting like a king or a dictator" and many Americans agree with him.
  
  
  
  
• [h=2]Gun control[/h]
  
  
  THE PRESIDENT CRIES AS HE TALKS ABOUT THE VICTIMS OF THE 2012 SANDY HOOK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL SHOOTING
  No matter what Mr Obama says to the contrary many supporters of the Second Amendment believe he wants to to take away their guns. Mr Obama used executive action to require small-scale gun sellers to carry out background checks on buyers, and he appointed an anti-gun judge to the US Supreme Court.
  
  
  
  
• [h=2]The military[/h]
  
  
  
  According to a poll by the Military Times only 15 per cent of those in the armed services approve of Mr Obama, while 55 per cent disapprove. The main reason is the scandal that engulfed the department of veterans affairs as it was revealed veterans were facing long, even fatal, delays for care. Distrust of Mr Obama grew following the so-called "latte salute" when he casually saluted Marines while holding a coffee.
  
  
  
  
• [h=2]America's declining position in the world[/h]
  
  
  
  Mr Obama's decision to release detainees from Guantanamo Bay to secure the return of deserter Bowe Bergdahl by the Taliban, and his decision to sign a deal lifting sanctions on Iran, were perceived by many Americans as signs of weakness.
  
  
  

 

[superbeets]

[h=3]Washington is "broken"[/h]For presidential candidates of either party, the greatest insult is being labelled "part of the Washington establishment".
It's so bad even Hillary Clinton has tried to claim she is "not part of the establishment". That takes some chutzpah from a former first lady, senator, and secretary of state.
Voters are deeply disillusioned with a perceived elite that runs America but does not understand it. Many voters now see America as a plutocracy rather than a democracy.
According to a CNN/ORC poll in December 2015, an astonishingly high 85 per cent of them disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job, and 75 per cent say they are dissatisfied with the way the country is being governed.



A total of 25 per cent say they are "very angry" about the way things are going in the country, 44 per cent are "somewhat angry" and only 14 per cent are "not angry at all".
Among Trump supporters 97 per cent are dissatisfied with the government, and 91 per cent are "angry".
Who is to blame? Republicans blame what they see as a partisan president. Democrats blame an intransigent Republican-controlled Congress for refusing to compromise.




According to Phillip K Howard, founder of Common Good, a group that wants to simplify government, Washington has become a "profoundly sick and dysfunctional political culture separated by the Beltway from the rest of the country".
It has "mutated into a perpetual tug of war where political leaders get up in the morning not trying to do anything constructive but just make the other side look bad."
Voters are sick of the lot of them.

 

[superbeets]

[h=3]It's the (failing) economy, stupid[/h]The politics of anger is being fuelled in parts of America where wages have stagnated, causing Americans who were once in the middle class to sink into the "working poor".
According to a recent study by the Pew Research Centre, less than half of the population are middle class, down from 61 per cent in 1971.



The median net worth of families today is barely higher than it was 30 years ago.
The decline is not limited to the country’s poorer states such as Mississippi and West Virginia. Even in leafy New England, behind the white picket fences of picturesque homes, poverty is on the rise.
In Exeter, home to the Philips Exeter Academy, the Eton of America, more than 2,000 people in a population of 13,800 are "food insecure", according to the local Saint Vincent de Paul community centre, and there has been a 177 per cent increase in distribution from food banks in the last two years.
In Manchester, the biggest city in New Hampshire, one in five children is reliant on food banks for nutrition.




The Telegraph visited one of the many food banks in the city, watching as dozens of people - many of whom have jobs and work up to 60-hour weeks - waited patiently for their turn.
"Family homelessness is the fastest growing homelessness in the country. Families are not making it,” said Pati Frew-Waters, executive director of Seacoast Family Promise, a shelter that takes in working families.
"There are jobs available but you can't make it on the wages they pay. Fast food restaurants will pay just over $7 an hour. You have major companies paying a pittance, truly a pittance."


Craig Welch, director of the nearby Portsmouth Housing Authority said: "We have about 500 families. Around here there has been no wage appreciation. These folks are working but this is the life of the working poor."
John Kasich, the Republican presidential candidate, said he had been shocked to discover on the campaign trail how bad life was for some Americans.
"People come to my town halls and they cry," he said. "Some of these people have traumatic stories and they have nowhere to go. No one is listening to them."

 

[superbeets]

[h=3]Billionaires vs. socialism[/h]Donald Trump's supporters see his billions as insulation against the influence of big donors and lobbyists that are part of the Washington "establishment".
On the flip side of the coin, voters are also flooding to self-declared socialist Bernie Sanders, who rails against the "billionaire class" and Wall Street, because he also challenges the status quo.
At a rally in Iowa, Mr Sanders, who is running neck and neck with Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential race, asked his audience: "I want to hear: what is it like to live on $10,000 a year social security?"



A woman called Carrie Aldrich stepped forward, took the microphone, and started crying.
"I've been living on less than that," she said. "I can't pay bills. You're ashamed all the time. When you can't buy presents for your children it's really, really hard.
"I worked three, four, five jobs, always minimum wage. I have a degree, divorced, and it's just ...my parents have to support me. It's just hard."
Mr Trump vows to bring prosperity by cutting taxes, negotiating better trade deals, and sending illegal immigrants home.
Mr Sanders says he will do it by raising taxes to pay for increasing the minimum wage, providing healthcare for all, and free college tuition.
Mr Sanders - and his supporters - are just as angry as Mr Trump.
He said recently: "I AM angry. The American people are angry. What's surprised me going round the country is how far removed the establishment in Washington, and the establishment media, is from real people's lives and what really matters to them."

 

[superbeets]

[h=3]'Immigrants are taking our jobs and some of them might be terrorists'[/h]

The economic insecurity has left many looking for someone to blame.
That has sparked a backlash against immigrants and fuelled a growing xenophobia which found its most high profile outlet in the speeches of Donald Trump.
At Mr Trump's rallies in places like Iowa and New Hampshire, thousands of miles from Mexico, his pledge to "build a big beautiful wall" on the border regularly gets a huge cheer.





The only thing that gets a bigger cheer is his call to ban Syrian refugees.
Mr Trump says the refugees could have Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) operatives among them, and they could be "the greatest Trojan horse of all time".
This fear of terrorism increased after the San Bernadino shootings in December last year when an Islamic extremism-inspired couple killed 14 people in a centre in California.
Despite Mr Obama's calls for gun control, the headlines after the attack focused on the link with Isil, exacerbating a fear in America of the enemy within.
The suspicion of refugees and immigrants is rising amid a demographic shift. By 2040 whites will no longer make up the majority of the American population.
In New Hampshire a white employee in a cigar shop told the Telegraph: "This country was made great by the white American male. When we have 200,000 homeless veterans why are we bringing in refugees? I say, thank you for speaking your mind Trump."




In one poll 73 per cent of white people said they get angry at least once a day. For Hispanics the figure was 66 per cent and for African-Americans 56 per cent.
Overall, 52 per cent of the country said the idea of the "American dream" no longer holds true, according to an Esquire magazine poll.

 

[superbeets]

[h=3]'It's all the fault of the liberal media'[/h]According to the Pew Research Centre, 65 per cent of Americans believe the national news media has a negative impact on the country.
It's a sentiment Mr Trump has picked up on, telling his supporters the media is part of "the establishment" that does not care about them.
Halfway through a recent rally in the velvet-curtained Orpheum Theatre in Sioux City, Iowa, Mr Trump pointed at the journalists who had come to report his speech.
"There is a tremendous dishonesty with these people," he said. "I thought real estate people were bad, but these guys!"
Such attacks are a regular feature of his events and elicit loud boos from the crowd.
Conservatives remain deeply suspicious of what Sarah Palin once called the "lamestream media".

 

[superbeets]

[h=3]Anger, anger, everywhere[/h]Public anger with the governing status quo is not limited to the US. British frustration led to the election of the leftist Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, a man who is often compared to Mr Sanders.
In France, the anti-immigration party Front National, also experiencing a surge in support. The Danish People's Party, Finns in Finland and the Sweden Democrats have similarly flourished in recent elections.
In America, Mr Trump has expertly tapped popular frustration. It remains to be seen if the strength of that anger can carry him to the White House.

 

[roadreeler57]

No way.....!

 

[Willie99]

money will begin to dry up, people will drop out

Super Tuesday is less than three weeks away, they'll be three candidates and maybe a deep pockets Bush left standing, but only if Bush starts winning votes

the air will clear soon enough, and I prefer old fashioned politics over today's cheap shallow idiocy anyhow, I want competition to the end

no fucking way should IA, NH and SC decide the nominee

 

[ScottL]

It's kind of funny that the most important issue now is which R is most likely to smash Hillary in a debate? If I knew that's who I'd route and vote for to gain the nomination. But (I) don't get to vote in primaries. I think Christie would destroy her. So would Cruz but most Americans wouldn't understand half of what he said. Christie would do it boardwalk beatdown style. Marco would lose to her in a debate. Carson would get stuck in a hallway. Trump would win the debate and then someone would forget to turn off his mic and all of America would hear, "I destroyed that fucking kunt!" That would finally be the end of Trump. Jeb would debate her to a draw, which is a loss. And bore all of America into a Carson type catatonic state while he did it. Kasich is a bit off the cuff. Don't know how that debate would play out.

 

[Dave007inVegas]

It's kind of funny that the most important issue now is which R is most likely to smash Hillary in a debate? If I knew that's who I'd route and vote for to gain the nomination. But (I) don't get to vote in primaries. I think Christie would destroy her. So would Cruz but most Americans wouldn't understand half of what he said. Christie would do it boardwalk beatdown style. Marco would lose to her in a debate. Carson would get stuck in a hallway. Trump would win the debate and then someone would forget to turn off his mic and all of America would hear, "I destroyed that fucking kunt!" That would finally be the end of Trump. Jeb would debate her to a draw, which is a loss. And bore all of America into a Carson type catatonic state while he did it. Kasich is a bit off the cuff. Don't know how that debate would play out.

 

[vitterd]

It's kind of funny that the most important issue now is which R is most likely to smash Hillary in a debate? If I knew that's who I'd route and vote for to gain the nomination. But (I) don't get to vote in primaries. I think Christie would destroy her. So would Cruz but most Americans wouldn't understand half of what he said. Christie would do it boardwalk beatdown style. Marco would lose to her in a debate. Carson would get stuck in a hallway. Trump would win the debate and then someone would forget to turn off his mic and all of America would hear, "I destroyed that fucking kunt!" That would finally be the end of Trump. Jeb would debate her to a draw, which is a loss. And bore all of America into a Carson type catatonic state while he did it. Kasich is a bit off the cuff. Don't know how that debate would play out.

Hillary would wipe the floor with Trump in a debate.....he has very little knowledge of issues and just says shit his kiss ass chorus likes to hear. But the Trump backers would go online and claim victory if he shit his pants on stage.

I'm talking an Vit style beatdown I hand out to Acebb or gasman.

 

[Acebb]

This will be yet another laughable beclowning thread by an idiot who is 100% wrong, 100% of the time.

These people are so stupid it is mind boggling.

 

[superbeets]

Hillary would wipe the floor with Trump in a debate.....he has very little knowledge of issues and just says shit his kiss ass chorus likes to hear. But the Trump backers would go online and claim victory if he shit his pants on stage.

I'm talking an Vit style beatdown I hand out to Acebb or gasman.

 

[vitterd]

This will be yet another laughable beclowning thread by an idiot who is 100% wrong, 100% of the time.

These people are so stupid it is mind boggling.

Do you really think you should be commenting on anyone? Look at your resume:

1. you're the known as Lying Acebb.

2. you predicted Hillary Clinton would not run for president.

3. You lost a ban bet and welched.

4. you lost in every sport in the pick thread and quit in disgrace.

5. You constantly post links that backfire in your face.

6. A mod called you a liar for saying I posted in poly forum thread.

7. You save all my posts

8. you searched Alaska home owners looking for AKP

9. You have run from every bet that involves posting picks heads up for money.

10. You were voted most worthless at the forum which is dominated by right wing loons like you.

 

[ScottL]

Chris Christie, Hired Gun?

Chris Christie probably saw the writing on the wall before the last debate. So at that time did he decide since he was no longer in the running to be the nominee that he would do his best to take Marco Rubio out of the race with him? Now today rumors are flying around Christie has called it quits.

 

[festeringZit]

Hillary would wipe the floor with Trump in a debate.....he has very little knowledge of issues and just says shit his kiss ass chorus likes to hear. But the Trump backers would go online and claim victory if he shit his pants on stage.

I'm talking an Vit style beatdown I hand out to Acebb or gasman.

I doubt it.

All Trump would have to do is call her out on her long list of lies and fuck-ups, and there is a lot to choose from.

 

[vitterd]

I doubt it.

All Trump would have to do is call her out on her long list of lies and fuck-ups, and there is a lot to choose from.

Nah.....that kind of bullying won't work.....the trump supporters will think it's great but most others won't. He's more suited for a debate with 12 people where he can just use slogans and spout off about shit that he can't possibly do. As the stage gets smaller.....he will get worse. Policy issues.....he has no substance at all and really not much of a clue.