Bridge-Jumper Overlay?

[VegasVic]

In the history of the NHL whenever a team finds themselves up 3 games to 1, (in a 7 games series), they go on to win the series 91.3% of the time. This is not a small sampling. It’s occurred 229 times and with the leader going on to a 209-20 record.

So armed with this information I see Anaheim, (up 3 games to 1), is listed as a 1/21 favorite over Winnipeg at 5dimes. Clearly not a profitable wager over the long run.

However Calgary is also up 3-1, (over Vancouver), yet 5dimes only has them at -570. Wouldn’t this be a obvious overlay considering the historical data?

 

[VegasVic]

Never mind I see my mistake. Anaheim up 3-0.

Still a overlay with Calgary at 1/5.7

 

[VegasVic]

A better comparison is Chicago. Up 3-1 they are correctly priced at 1/10.

 

[X-Files]

The true odds on each individual series leader at 3 games to 1 can be calculated.
If the value of the Flames is +120 tonight & in game 7 & -120 at home in game 6,
punch those numbers into the following parlay calculator & you get 787.33. So
Calgary would be a -787 fav to win the series & Vancouver a +787 dog. Thus there
would be value in taking the flames at a significantly smaller number such as the
one at 5dimes sportsbook.


http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/


The NYR also lead 3 games to one, but their odds to win the series are probably
going to be percieved by the oddsmakers to be better than Calgary's chances vs
Vancouver. NY is to play two games at home while the Flames would have only one.
NY has also been a significantly bigger fav at home than Calgary.

Essentially your bet is a chase for Calgary to win one in 3 games, or Vancouver
to lose one in 3. So another way to play it would be one game at a time, with
Calgary +133 (Pinnacle) tonight. IMO there is value in that. Burrows is a huge
loss to the Canucks.

 

[VegasVic]

Understood sir. I was just suggesting that while Calgary should be a 1/9 favorite, without considering any other parameters other than the historical math of this situation, I just believed that 1/5.7 offered a great deal of value. After all that I still have a hard time laying -570 on almost anything in sport, especially concerning the NHL. Just the same I’ve got my share of a sweat already on this game/series with a future ticket on Calgary at 500/1 to win the cup. I have and will be hedging all the way.

I do agree 100% with your opinion regarding Burrows loss and appreciate your input within the entire post.

gl

 

[guil0000]

Understood sir. I was just suggesting that while Calgary should be a 1/9 favorite, without considering any other parameters other than the historical math of this situation, I just believed that 1/5.7 offered a great deal of value. After all that I still have a hard time laying -570 on almost anything in sport, especially concerning the NHL. Just the same I’ve got my share of a sweat already on this game/series with a future ticket on Calgary at 500/1 to win the cup. I have and will be hedging all the way.

I do agree 100% with your opinion regarding Burrows loss and appreciate your input within the entire post.

gl

Let it ride Calgary wins it all this year @)

Seriously no matter how you play it. Great bet!