[h=1]Best Breeders' Cup value bets[/h][h=3]Kentucky Derby, Preakness champion California Chrome a smart pick[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Lane Gold[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
To a bettor, the sound of a betting machine printing tickets with his or her wagers is unmistakable. Those sounds will be nearly deafening throughout every race track and betting parlor on Friday and Saturday as the Breeders' Cup, the two-day championship of thoroughbred racing, returns to Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California.
This year's event will not only again show off the world's best horses, it will also present a great deal of wonderful betting opportunities. Last year the event brought in over $160 million worth of wagering, and with very full fields, this year one would expect numbers to be similar.
The highlight of the event will come Saturday afternoon in the Breeders' Cup Classic, as Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion California Chrome takes on unbeaten and fellow 3-year-old Shared Belief, who is owned by TV and radio personality Jim Rome. Rome, who was never a huge fan of racing until he became an owner, is seeking a third straight win in a Breeders' Cup race. (He won the Turf Sprint the past two years with the now-retired Mizdirection.) Also in the Classic field is Belmont stakes winner Tonalist.
Most of the other races on Friday and Saturday do not have any prohibitive favorites except for the Dirt Mile, where Goldencents is 6-5 in the morning line to defend his title.
Below we will look at a few of the races that present some great betting values in the two-day event, where upsets happen quite often.
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With Shared Belief as the probable chalk, there are some big names in the Classic who could offer some great value.
California Chrome (post position No. 13, 4-1 morning line)
It almost seems ludicrous that the horse who nearly pulled off a Triple Crown sweep earlier this year would be a good price, but he's an intriguing proposition.
A lot of pundits have soured on Chrome after his subpar sixth-place finish in the only start the colt had since the disappointing Belmont. But there's a lot to like about the Derby winner now that he's running back in his Southern California home.
He has won three of four races at Santa Anita and two of those victories were perhaps his most impressive. Trainer Art Sherman has been raving about the way he's trained since the last race. In addition, the colt is well rested as this will be only his second race since June.
Another big plus for California Chrome is that he is on the outside, which he prefers. Jockey Victor Espinoza had him on the inside the entire way in his last race, which undoubtedly contributed to the defeat.
This will likely be his biggest price at post time since he was 5-1 last September. If he can stay out of trouble on the outside and just behind from what should a hot pace early on, he'll be in prime position to win.
Tonalist (post position No. 11, 5-1 morning line)
Yet another colt with an impressive résumé heads into the Classic with solid odds. Most people will remember Tonalist for shattering California Chrome's hopes for a Triple Crown, but he's done more since the Belmont victory.
In his most recent start, the first outside of strictly 3-year-olds, he won the prestigious Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park while overcoming a bad start and beat older horses in the process. This year, he's finished first or second in six of his seven starts, and the other outing was a third-place effort in the Travers in August.
What makes Tonalist a dangerous horse and great value play is the fact he has a versatile running style and has proved he can overcome trouble during a race.
V.E. Day (post position No. 5, 20-1 morning line)
This is another sophomore colt who got hot during the summer and "stubbed his toe" a bit in his last race but should not be ignored.
His signature win came in the Travers after making up 14 lengths and springing the 10-1 upset over a good field including Tonalist and Wicked Strong. In his next race, he finished sixth to Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but encountered a world of trouble including being bumped right after the start and again knocked off stride later in heat.
Trainer Jimmy Jerkens nearly put V.E. Day on the shelf for the rest of the year, but after watching the replay of the Gold Cup, he realized that his horse deserved another chance to get his fifth win in 2014.
If the fast early pace develops as expected, this colt should be able come from behind. However, he needs to avoid being pushed far outside on the turn for home.
Cigar Street (post position No. 2, 12-1 morning line)
At first glance, one has to wonder what this lightly raced and not very accomplished horse is doing in such a prestigious race but upon further examination, he is a dangerous entrant.
The fact that Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has entered Cigar Street in the Classic is a big reason to look more closely. Mott has the second-most money earned ($16.3 million) and third most wins (9) in Breeders' Cup history. He has also won this race twice, including a huge upset in 2011 with Drosselmeyer.
This 5-year-old horse has won five of eight, but since moving to Mott's barn in 2012, he has a record of 4-1-0 in five tries. The key for Cigar Street is not to pull into an early speed duel. If he can avoid that, he should be in prime position along the inside on the final turn.
The prerace choice at 5-2 is European-based Toronado who was one of the top turf horses across the pond running at the one-mile distance. Europeans typically excel in grass races but the always unknown factor is how they will fare on a track they are unfamiliar with and facing warm afternoon temperatures and a large crowd.
Obviously (post position No. 2, 8-1 morning line)
This 6-year-old gelding has tried this race twice and was unable to knock off Wise Dan. Without the champ in the Mile, his chances are much improved.
His biggest asset is his speed, as Obviously appears to be one of the only horses who wants to go right to the front. If jockey Joe Talamo can keep him from running too fast too early, the rest of the field may not be able to catch him.
Tom's Tribute (post position No. 6, 15-1 morning line)
Another U.S.-based horse who has been overlooked despite his recent hot streak. He has won three of his last four, with the only defeat coming at the hands of Obviously in June.
The key for the chestnut colt is not to fall too far back early on because any misstep in this unforgiving race will cost him.
One Lucky Dane (post position No. 11, 10-1 morning line)
Trainer Bob Baffert, who also conditioned American Pharoah, has won this event three times and has 10 overall Breeders' Cup victories.
This colt is coming off an eye-opening 9½-length victory at Santa Anita three weeks ago and appears to love the track. Baffert wins back-to-back races nearly 30 percent of the time, and if this horse can lay just behind the early speed, he'll be in prime position.
Upstart (post position No. 13, 8-1 morning line)
There's nothing flashy about this colt other than his record of 2-1-0 in three races. His off-the-pace running style should serve him well and might be ignored simply because he is starting from the 13 post.
The 5-2 morning-line choice is Untapable, who has won five of six this year and whose only loss came when she tackled the boys in the Haskell in July. The worst race of her career came last year in in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies as she finished eighth, beaten nearly 70 lengths.
Here are a couple of horses who should present good value.
Tiz Midnight (post position No. 2, 10-1 morning line)
Baffert brings this 4-year-old filly into the race off a runner-up finish to 2013 Distaff champ Beholder (who withdrew from the race last week). Before that second-place effort, she rattled off three straight victories, including an 11½-length triumph at Santa Anita.
She will go right to the front, and if she can avoid a speed duel with Close Hatches (the 3-1 second morning-line choice), the filly could be in a prime spot to win.
Don't Tell Sophia (post position No. 7, 5-1 morning line)
If the speed is too fast early on, this 6-year-old could be one who benefits from it. She has won four of five races this year, all coming from way off the lead, and loves the 1 1/8-mile distance of this heat.
The Breeders' Cup will present each bettor with numerous intriguing wagering options, and there is no better feeling than going back to that betting window where you heard the familiar sound of your ticket printing and cashing that wager.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Lane Gold[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
To a bettor, the sound of a betting machine printing tickets with his or her wagers is unmistakable. Those sounds will be nearly deafening throughout every race track and betting parlor on Friday and Saturday as the Breeders' Cup, the two-day championship of thoroughbred racing, returns to Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California.
This year's event will not only again show off the world's best horses, it will also present a great deal of wonderful betting opportunities. Last year the event brought in over $160 million worth of wagering, and with very full fields, this year one would expect numbers to be similar.
The highlight of the event will come Saturday afternoon in the Breeders' Cup Classic, as Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion California Chrome takes on unbeaten and fellow 3-year-old Shared Belief, who is owned by TV and radio personality Jim Rome. Rome, who was never a huge fan of racing until he became an owner, is seeking a third straight win in a Breeders' Cup race. (He won the Turf Sprint the past two years with the now-retired Mizdirection.) Also in the Classic field is Belmont stakes winner Tonalist.
Most of the other races on Friday and Saturday do not have any prohibitive favorites except for the Dirt Mile, where Goldencents is 6-5 in the morning line to defend his title.
Below we will look at a few of the races that present some great betting values in the two-day event, where upsets happen quite often.
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[h=3]Breeders' Cup Classic[/h]The 1¼-mile renewal brings together the best 3-year-olds in the country and a few good older horses as well. The favoritism will likely fall to Shared Belief, with his stellar record and high-profile owner. He was installed as the 9-5 morning-line favorite but that price is almost certain to go down.With Shared Belief as the probable chalk, there are some big names in the Classic who could offer some great value.
California Chrome (post position No. 13, 4-1 morning line)
It almost seems ludicrous that the horse who nearly pulled off a Triple Crown sweep earlier this year would be a good price, but he's an intriguing proposition.
A lot of pundits have soured on Chrome after his subpar sixth-place finish in the only start the colt had since the disappointing Belmont. But there's a lot to like about the Derby winner now that he's running back in his Southern California home.
He has won three of four races at Santa Anita and two of those victories were perhaps his most impressive. Trainer Art Sherman has been raving about the way he's trained since the last race. In addition, the colt is well rested as this will be only his second race since June.
Another big plus for California Chrome is that he is on the outside, which he prefers. Jockey Victor Espinoza had him on the inside the entire way in his last race, which undoubtedly contributed to the defeat.
This will likely be his biggest price at post time since he was 5-1 last September. If he can stay out of trouble on the outside and just behind from what should a hot pace early on, he'll be in prime position to win.
Tonalist (post position No. 11, 5-1 morning line)
Yet another colt with an impressive résumé heads into the Classic with solid odds. Most people will remember Tonalist for shattering California Chrome's hopes for a Triple Crown, but he's done more since the Belmont victory.
In his most recent start, the first outside of strictly 3-year-olds, he won the prestigious Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park while overcoming a bad start and beat older horses in the process. This year, he's finished first or second in six of his seven starts, and the other outing was a third-place effort in the Travers in August.
What makes Tonalist a dangerous horse and great value play is the fact he has a versatile running style and has proved he can overcome trouble during a race.
V.E. Day (post position No. 5, 20-1 morning line)
This is another sophomore colt who got hot during the summer and "stubbed his toe" a bit in his last race but should not be ignored.
His signature win came in the Travers after making up 14 lengths and springing the 10-1 upset over a good field including Tonalist and Wicked Strong. In his next race, he finished sixth to Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but encountered a world of trouble including being bumped right after the start and again knocked off stride later in heat.
Trainer Jimmy Jerkens nearly put V.E. Day on the shelf for the rest of the year, but after watching the replay of the Gold Cup, he realized that his horse deserved another chance to get his fifth win in 2014.
If the fast early pace develops as expected, this colt should be able come from behind. However, he needs to avoid being pushed far outside on the turn for home.
Cigar Street (post position No. 2, 12-1 morning line)
At first glance, one has to wonder what this lightly raced and not very accomplished horse is doing in such a prestigious race but upon further examination, he is a dangerous entrant.
The fact that Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has entered Cigar Street in the Classic is a big reason to look more closely. Mott has the second-most money earned ($16.3 million) and third most wins (9) in Breeders' Cup history. He has also won this race twice, including a huge upset in 2011 with Drosselmeyer.
This 5-year-old horse has won five of eight, but since moving to Mott's barn in 2012, he has a record of 4-1-0 in five tries. The key for Cigar Street is not to pull into an early speed duel. If he can avoid that, he should be in prime position along the inside on the final turn.
[h=3]Breeders' Cup Mile[/h]The race preceding the Classic was widely expected to have two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan defend his crown but a recent injury forced him to the sidelines and now left a wide-open betting race with some great prices.The prerace choice at 5-2 is European-based Toronado who was one of the top turf horses across the pond running at the one-mile distance. Europeans typically excel in grass races but the always unknown factor is how they will fare on a track they are unfamiliar with and facing warm afternoon temperatures and a large crowd.
Obviously (post position No. 2, 8-1 morning line)
This 6-year-old gelding has tried this race twice and was unable to knock off Wise Dan. Without the champ in the Mile, his chances are much improved.
His biggest asset is his speed, as Obviously appears to be one of the only horses who wants to go right to the front. If jockey Joe Talamo can keep him from running too fast too early, the rest of the field may not be able to catch him.
Tom's Tribute (post position No. 6, 15-1 morning line)
Another U.S.-based horse who has been overlooked despite his recent hot streak. He has won three of his last four, with the only defeat coming at the hands of Obviously in June.
The key for the chestnut colt is not to fall too far back early on because any misstep in this unforgiving race will cost him.
[h=3]Breeders' Cup Juvenile[/h]This race usually gives you a sneak peek into the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby, but the morning-line choice, American Pharoah, was withdrawn this week due to an injury. Now this race presents bettors with some intriguing betting opportunities.One Lucky Dane (post position No. 11, 10-1 morning line)
Trainer Bob Baffert, who also conditioned American Pharoah, has won this event three times and has 10 overall Breeders' Cup victories.
This colt is coming off an eye-opening 9½-length victory at Santa Anita three weeks ago and appears to love the track. Baffert wins back-to-back races nearly 30 percent of the time, and if this horse can lay just behind the early speed, he'll be in prime position.
Upstart (post position No. 13, 8-1 morning line)
There's nothing flashy about this colt other than his record of 2-1-0 in three races. His off-the-pace running style should serve him well and might be ignored simply because he is starting from the 13 post.
[h=3]Breeders' Cup Distaff[/h]The female equivalent of the Classic and the highlight of Friday's Breeders' Cup races does not have a dominant horse like Zenyatta a few years back, although there are some very talented ladies in the field.The 5-2 morning-line choice is Untapable, who has won five of six this year and whose only loss came when she tackled the boys in the Haskell in July. The worst race of her career came last year in in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies as she finished eighth, beaten nearly 70 lengths.
Here are a couple of horses who should present good value.
Tiz Midnight (post position No. 2, 10-1 morning line)
Baffert brings this 4-year-old filly into the race off a runner-up finish to 2013 Distaff champ Beholder (who withdrew from the race last week). Before that second-place effort, she rattled off three straight victories, including an 11½-length triumph at Santa Anita.
She will go right to the front, and if she can avoid a speed duel with Close Hatches (the 3-1 second morning-line choice), the filly could be in a prime spot to win.
Don't Tell Sophia (post position No. 7, 5-1 morning line)
If the speed is too fast early on, this 6-year-old could be one who benefits from it. She has won four of five races this year, all coming from way off the lead, and loves the 1 1/8-mile distance of this heat.
The Breeders' Cup will present each bettor with numerous intriguing wagering options, and there is no better feeling than going back to that betting window where you heard the familiar sound of your ticket printing and cashing that wager.
