Breeders Cup Matchups

[Labeeb]

I've been doing well with horse matchups through the year and with the Pick 4's looking to be near impossible as is the case on most BC days, I'm going to only play horse matchups for this years BC and one win bet in the Classic. I've already put in my action for Saturday. I find that whenever I try and wait for a dog to drift up in price I get burned, so I'm locking in what I feel to be a solid price right now. I am rolling the dice with post positions, especially in races such as the Juvenile Fillies where there will be a large field and a short run into the first turn. I'm a ThoroGraph player and would be happy to discuss the races with other TG players. Here goes nothing...

Distaff
2* Indy Groove +162/Elloluv

Juvenile Fillies
2* In The Gold +182/Sweet Catomine
2* Sharp Lisa -104/Sense of Style

Mile
.8* Special Ring +135/Six Perfections
.8* Mr. O'Brien +127/Six Perfections

F&M Turf
1* Wonder Again +162/Ouija Board
1* Light Jig +165/Ouija Board
1* Riskaverse +119/Light Jig
.8* Moscow Burning +129/Film Maker

Juvenile
2* Proud Accolade +124/Roman Ruler
2* Afleet Alex +146/Roman Ruler

Turf
1* Magestretti +128/Powerscourt
1* Request For Parole +130/Star Over The Bay
1* Powerscourt +168/Kitten's Joy
1.6* Strut The Stage +138/Better Talk Now
1.6* Strut The Stage +142/Star Over The Bay

Classic
1* Birdstone +118/Funny Cide
1* Funny Cide +186/Pleasantly Perfect
1* Newfoundland +150/Dynever

As much as I didn't expect to make a play like this about 6 months ago, I'm going to side with Birdstone to win the Classic. Look out for a big Zito day, with another live runner in the Juvenile Fillies, In The Gold

Hopefully this will spur a little conversation regarding the best day of racing in the year. I'm curious to hear others thoughts.

 

[trytrytry]

Thanks much.



Talk to us about this Distaff race and how the graphs show things



also the Classic



what do the graphs show on Funny Cide for example?

 

[JimFiestSux]

DYNEVER will run the race of his life this Saturday and will mark his 2nd win over the course!

 

[Labeeb]

Well keep in mind that the TG, just like other data is merely there to be interpreted and is not a rosetta stone for playing the races. The data is only as good as the dope (me) reading it.

My take on the Distaff is that I wish Azeri would have run in this race, been overbet and lose. But we can not be so lucky. This is a very nice group of fillies and mares. As it looks right now the weight concession for the 3 year olds will factor into this race. All of them appear to be a step quicker than their older counterparts and with that being said, ground loss could be the next big factor. Society Selection figures to lose ground, Ashado will probably lose some but not as much as SS, and Hollywood Story and Stellar Jayne figure to get ground saving trips. At 1 1/8 miles the run into the first turn is a long one. I like Stellar Jayne's pattern more than any of the other 3 year olds. that being said, I think there's a horse at a price that could upset the apple cart. Tamaweel. Since coming over from Europe this filly has done nothing but improve with each race. The fact she couldn't hold on with the Keeneland golden rail is a little disturbing, but her progression is nice and the price juicy.

In the Classic the question is, "Can Ghostzapper stay together and get the 10 panels?". After seeing his last two figures (Probably the two fastest TG figures ever) I would say no. Usually horses running these big efforts fall apart as the campaign wears on (even after only 3 races in a year). So I figure him to bounce. I also heard that he's been having some problems with a hoof. No what you want to hear going into the BC. Also keep in mind Frankel's dismal performance in BCs past. Short price, ouchy horse, trainer with problems at the Big Dance, no thanks. Pleasantly Perfect figures to run a nice figure but will lose ground circling the field. Birdstone looks very live. I didn't like this horse even a little bit in the spring, but his runs in the Belmont and Travers made a believer out of me. Nice pattern, nice spacing and he gets 5 lbs. Could lead up to a big race. Funny Cide figures to be right there but may just be a step slower than the top horses, but he should save more ground than most of the contenders. As game as they come. Roses in May should be able to secure a good position and has been cranking out good figures all year long. I think he will get a piece of the money. Azeri will finish well up the track. Normally I don't give out a Top 3, but I'll try it here...

Birdstone
Roses In May
Funny Cide
Pleasantly Perfect

Hopefully that's enough for you all to chew on...

 

[Labeeb]

I find that whenever I try and wait for a dog to drift up in price I get burned, so I'm locking in what I feel to be a solid price right now.

Of course I'm already getting the shaft on the Elloluv/Indy Groove number. the plus side already up to +184. Some things aren't meant to be...

 

[appolo]

Think the best bet of the day will be a bet against Roman Ruler. Both horses in the MU's should run well and find that there is great value with this bet. Also I can't believe how many people are jumping on Birdstone (me included) I'm starting to get the feeling he is the wiseguy horse and not offer the value he should.

 

[Labeeb]

Birdstone

Appolo,
On a "normal" day at the track, I would worry about the wiseguys, but on an "amateur" day such as this, there will be plenty of public money coming in on the likes of Funny Cide, Ghostzapper and Pleasantly Perfect. I figure Birdstone will go off in the 9-1 range. Roses In May figures to be solid in the wagering and Perfect Drift and Azeri will probably get a little bit of play as well.

Obviously we agree in our opinions of Roman Ruler. His last start was very slow and he would have to improve by leaps and bounds to catch up with the likes of Afleet Alex and Proud Accolade.

 

[sammythesage]

shoulda posted this in the horse forum!

one of the best cappers ever read; mazeltrick resides there, don't think he visits here much. he's in europe right now.

don't disagree w/anything you've posted; well thought out.

excepting GZ comments; BAD-HOOF "rumors get you killed" need to find out if they are true or false, PERIOD.

 

[Labeeb]

shoulda posted this in the horse forum!

one of the best cappers ever read; mazeltrick resides there, don't think he visits here much. he's in europe right now.

don't disagree w/anything you've posted; well thought out.

excepting GZ comments; BAD-HOOF "rumors get you killed" need to find out if they are true or false, PERIOD.

Well the notion that GZ one hoof may be going bad wasn't the turning point for me taking a stand against him. The primary factors are the distance question and without a doubt the effect of 3 HUGE efforts this year. Although as us sheet players have been finding out, the wonder of phamaceuticals are allowing horses to run more and more big negative numbers than they used to. It used to be a "rule" of sorts that two negative numbers will lead to a huge bounce and major trouble/retirment down the road. The list of horses from the 80s and 90s would show this. But now in the 21st century, horses reel them off like the are nothing. Claimers have been known to show a negative figure now. But with all of this being said, GZ's last two figures were possibly the fastest TG has ever given a horse. So a horse that has already had his share of physical problems earlier in his career (note the 6 month and 1 year layoffs), combined with a possible distance question, a trainer who has problems winning in the BC especially with short priced horses and a sure to be short price, I'll be betting with both fists against him.