There is no shortage of questions as to how the ground at Keeneland will effect the outcome of the two days of World Championship racing. After all, in the thirty-one year history this is the first installment of 'Breeders' Cup Keeneland Edition'. While heresay is prominent, the handicapping really begins today. The missing puzzle piece is about to be fill in. We're coming to you LIVE from the 2015 Breeders Cup Post Position Draw to tell you who got lucky and who has their work cut out for them!
*** $5,000,000 Breeders' Cup Classic
The Classic draw has to be one of the most fair and fitting assignments I can remember. With three closers to his inside, #4 American Pharoah can have the lead if he really wants it. IfSmooth Roller isn't quick off the blocks, we can see exactly what we want. The Triple Crown winner squaring off with Zenyatta 2.0.
#10 Beholder gets the outside where she's been in her last two glorified workouts. Breaking from the nine hole in the Grade I TVG Pacific Classic, she got the catbird seat behind the overeager Bayern and Midnight Storm. We all know how that ended. Beholder doesn't seemed to be fazed by much and gate ten won't fall into that category. After all, she is one solid mare.
It's not surprising whatsoever to see #9 Honor Code draw the "dreaded" nine hole. First the swamp in the Grade I Kelso, to the wide trip and now the gate of winless runners. We know Honor Code is the real deal, but when will he catch a break?
When #5 Gleneagles was drawn a spot outside of the Pharoah, you had to wonder... 20 to 1? He could have been assigned a spot behind the gate and still shouldn't be 20 to 1. Aidan O'Brien means business this time around.
To the same tune, #2 Keen Ice sits at 12-1 in a post yielding a 26% strike rate in races a mile or longer on the main. Everyone remembers what happened the last time he was counted out.
American Pharoah looks to ride off into the sunset, but he'll have to deal with nine horses, each breaking from an extremely "fair" gate.
***Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff
#7 Wedding Toast is the presumable favorite in a seemingly wide open edition of the Distaff. At least judging by the 2015 Keeneland Fall Meet, the further outside you go, the worse. The good news is seven is nowhere close to fourteen and most of Wedding Toast's competition is drawn outside of her. Her post position need not worry anyone.
#12 Got Lucky turns into somewhat of an x-factor in the race after drawing the twelve hole. She's already beaten last years Kentucky Oaks and Breeders' Cup Distaff champ Untapable, yet her morning line is 6-1 while #11 Untapable sits at 5-1. The outside shouldn't hurt the late-running Got Lucky, who gets even more speed to run into than she got when she nosed Untapable in Keeneland's Grade I Spinster.
#1 I'm a Chatterbox wasn't really helped by drawing the inside. She has a handful of faster horses to her outside.
If anyone really got hosed by the draw, it was #14 Sheer Drama who either has to clear thirteen horses or do something she hasn't done since she rallied from twelve lengths back to finish second in Gulfstream's Florida Sunshine Millions Distaff back in January.
The bottom line is, this year's Distaff is loaded with talent and while there are a few disadvantageous draws, you can't put anything put these ladies.
***Longines Breeders' Cup Turf
If #1 Golden Horn (GB) is going to assert himself as the top grass-runner in the world, he'll have to do it from the inside post. After winning the Arc in Longchamp, he's been referred to as a lock for the Turf and will most likely go off favorite. His post position doesn't necessarily help nor hurt him.
While Golden Horn may not be severely affected, #9 Found (IRE) might be after being assigned the winless post nine. The threat to Golden Horn was nearly deafened as his post was drawn.
**Sentient Jets Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Dale Romans is calling #4 Unbridled Outlaw both the best two year old he's ever had and the best two year old in the country. If Unbridled Outlaw is going to prove Dale's notion he'll have to do it from the four hole which has been fair so far this meet. Really getting the short end of the stick is #2 Riker. He had plenty of buzz surrounding him as a potential upset chance in this year's baby race, but a post that has produced only 5 winners in 76 races will be much more than a setback.
**Breeders' Cup Mile
#7 Tepin handled her most recent challenge effortlessly with a seven length romp in Keeneland's Grade I First Lady. Now, the filly faces a new one after being drawn in the first of the dreaded outside posts in the Mile. Gates seven through fourteen have accounted for only eight wins in one hundred twenty-eight starts, but the only consolation prize is her First Lady romp came from post eleven.
Who else is looking at the Mile with the glass half empty? #8 Obviously looks to avenge his loss to **#4 Mondialiste but has to do it from a spot that has yielded only two winners in twenty-seven starts. The only good news is Obviously showed a ridiculous amount of speed and can easily clear if he breaks well. #9 Esoterique (IRE) has won back to back Group I races in England and France and faces the same challenge has her horses around her as does defending champ #11 Karakontie.
** Breeders' Cup Sprint
#5 Runhappy and #13 Private Zone are the talk of the town and rightfully so. Runhappy has looked nothing short of incredible in her triumphs in the Grade I Kings Bishop and Grade III Phoenix right here at Keeneland. As for Private Zone, well, he's Private Zone. So how do their posts effect their chances? Runhappy's post has claimed 12 of 76 (15.79%) dirt races at less than a mile, while Private Zone will be the first to break from post thirteen. Needless to say, far outside is certainly not a bad thing for Private Zone. Both of their chances just skyrocketed.
Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
#9 Miss France looks to become 'Miss World Champ', but she and Frankie have their work cut out for them. She draws the dreaded 0 for 24 gate. The misfortune in the draw could demote her from a Group I winner to an afterthought.
** Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
While #4 La Verdad seems logical, a few days of rest may not cut it against the only horse who's beat her at Belmont. #5 Artemis Agrotera comes off her year long layoff and gets the winningest post position for races under a mile on Keeneland's main track this fall.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
#2 Bobby's Kitten hasn't been quite the same this year, but the Ramseys are ready to let him roll. He'll have trouble pulling off a run similar to last year's incredible stretch run breaking from the two hole, but hey, we've learned what happens when you leave out Bobby's Kitten.
**14 Hands Winery Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
#9 Rachel's Valentina will have to do what no horse has done this meet. She draws the 9 hole which no horse has won from in the seventeen races at a mile or over on the main in Keeneland's Fall Meet.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#10 Illuminate (IRE) draws nicely in the ten hole which has yielded just shy of 15% of the turf winners at a mile or longer in the Fall Meet. Illuminate hasn't missed a step in three straight wins followed by a beautiful BC prep at Newmarket and stretches out to a mile for the first time.
**Las Vegas Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
#3 Liam's Map will almost certainly be the post time favorite for the Dirt Mile after defecting from Saturday's Classic. Pletcher is somewhere smiling after he drew post three which has provided 20% of winners in the 2015 Keeneland Fall Meet at dirt races of a mile or longer and most importantly avoided a dreaded outside post.
Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf
#8 Airoforce hasn't done a single thing wrong and the Casse's think he's locked and loaded to take on the two year old grass runners. They won't have to sweat too much, but they certainly aren't applauding at their post position. They've drawn the eight hole which has yielded a just under an 8% strike right in the 2015 Keeneland Fall Meet in turf races at a mile or longer.
