Brainiac’s Winter Sports

[TheBrainiac]

16 February

Start time : 12:45 PM PST

12.5 km Pursuit - Best Finishing Position<small>

</small>Anton Shipulin vs Arnd Pfeiffer

My pick is Arnd Pfeiffer

Odds : - 108

Where : pinnaclesports

2.7 units to win 2.5 units




16 February

Start time : 12:45 PM PST

12.5 km Pursuit - Best Finishing Position<small>

</small>Simon Eder vs Björn Ferry

My pick is Simon Eder

Odds : + 110 and + 120

Where : pinnaclesports

3 units to win 3.35 units



Like this one , Eder has only lost a lot of time on the 2nd loop because of the weather , he should have a little bit faster running time and will make up around 30-40 seconds with quicker shooting .





16 February

Start time : 12:45 PM PST

12.5 km Pursuit - Best Finishing Position<small>

</small>Ole Einar Bjørndalen vs Christoph Sumann

My pick is Ole Einar Bjørndalen

Odds : - 200

Where : expekt

4 units to win 2 units


Ole Einar 27 behind Sumann , he will make it up with better running no big deal . Sumann has had a lot of problems with shooting in the last few monthes , I don't see Bjorndalen missing 3 out of 5 shots in prone position again .



16 February

Start time : 12:45 PM PST

12.5 km Pursuit - Best Finishing Position<small>

</small>Dominik Landertinger vs Martin Fourcade

My pick is Dominik Landertinger

Odds : + 105

Where : pinnaclesports

2.5 units to win 2.62 units



The only other bookie I see this match up at has Landertinger at - 140 . He will always give you a run for your money . French team profited from great ski in the first race but still they will both start at the same time . I think overall Landertinger should have the better running time , good weather so neither should have a lot of trouble with shooting . Will try my luck with the austrian as a slight underdog .

 

[TheBrainiac]

Last one




16 February

Start time : 12:45 PM PST

12.5 km Pursuit - Best Finishing Position<small>

</small>Jakov Fak vs Klemen Bauer

My pick is Jakov Fak

Odds : 1.85

Where : expekt

4 units to win 3.4 units


Fak will start 3 seconds ahead , no big deal . Both had similar running times few weeks prior to the olympics . The big advantage here is around 15 % better success rate for Fak in shooting which should be a big enough difference with 20 shots to make . Bauer is around 58 % in standing position the last 5 seasons compared to ~ 80 % of Jakov Fak .
In the last pursuit , 3 weeks ago Fak was 9 seconds faster in shooting and 15 seconds better running time , also he has just made 3 errors compared to 6 of Bauer who missed 6 out of 10 shots standing once again underlining his bad % in standing position shooting .
Fak already did well at the world championships last year so 3rd place in the sprint wasn't the absolute surprise tho of course nobody would have counted on him .
If Fak can stay within his % I think Bauer would have really hard time to keep up with him .

 

[chriscol]

great !!! i cam up almost with the same plays:

Ole over Suman @ 1.45
Landertinger over Fourcade @ 1.99
Pfeiffer over shipulin @ 1.92 2 units
Bauer over FAK @ 1.95 2 units
Greis over Hanevold @ 1.40
Landertinger over Shipulin @ 1.70
Ole over Tscherezov @ 1.47
Ole over Ferry @ 1.51
Ustygov over Ferry @ 2.06

BOL

 

[chriscol]

speed skating 500 m girls

Wolf to win @ 1.72 !! 2 units!!

she won 5 of 7 races this year + the main opponent Wand, just turned up yesterday in Vancouver practicing in Calgary before...from what i heard that s a big disadvantage as the ice conditions are completely different and very special in Vancouver (ice contains much more water)

BOL to all

 

[TheBrainiac]

Another one of those races , Pfeiffer makes 3 errors in the last shooting , Bjorn fkn Dalen total garbage as well especially with running time .

 

[TheBrainiac]

Worst day biathlon betting wise hno:

Will try to get some money back in hockey .



16 February

Start time : 2:30 PM PST

Olympics - Women, Hockey<small>

</small>Russian Federation vs United States

My pick is UNDER 10 GOALS

Odds : - 102

Where : pinnaclesports

3.06 units to win 3 units



Going to start with this one before moving on to the big dogs vs meh teams in men division . USA beat China 12-1 and Russia lost 5-1 to Finland in their first games . IMO Russia can score 1 at most , USA could of course go off here and score 15 . I can see Russia trying not to lose big just like they've tried with Finland . Maybe 8-1 or 7-0 I could see that happening .

 

[TheBrainiac]

16 February

Start time : 4:30 PM PST

Olympics - Men, Hockey<small>

</small>Norway vs Canada

My pick is Canada - 6

Odds : - 113

Where : pinnaclesports

5.65 units to win 5 units



16 February

Start time : 7:00 PM PST

Olympics - Women, Hockey<small>

China vs Finland
</small>
My pick is Finland - 5

Odds : - 105

Where : pinnaclesports

5.25 units to win 5 units

 

[Soriano12]

Luge Doubles
Outright Winner: Linger/Linger +250 (boylesports)
The Austrian double was fastest during practice sessions on the shortened track (starting from womens start). Imo these odds, where the German double (Anschütz/...) still is favored, are wrong since you could already see in the singles event, that the shortened tracks completely messed up the rankings.
They also have shown earlier in their career that they can deal with the pressure of the Olympics.

Sics/Sics Top3 +400 (bwin)
Sics/Sics H2H (vs Schiegl/Schiegl) +112 (pinnacle)
The Latvian double was fastest during 5th practice session, seem to have adjusted to the new conditions better than almost any other team.

Womens Downhill
Goergl H2H (vs. Stechert) -140 (bwin)
Stechert qualified for the Olympics in the last race, inconsistent racer, also injured her hand in Vancouver. Goergl with great practice session (3rd fastest) and is starting in the top8, while Stecherts starting number is in the high 20s. Because of the warm temperatures the track could be messed up later and slow down, which would put the first runners in a way better position.

Styger Top3 +700
She has already won a downhill race on that track earlier in her career and had a great practice session, until she was disqualified for leaving the track...

 

[WayneBetzky]

Finland out shoots china 43-5 and only wins 2-1 #%():WTF:

 

[guil0000]

Finland out shoots china 43-5 and only wins 2-1 #%():WTF:

I didn't watch this game but I did watch the Canadian and even losing 12-1 this chinese team is well coach and i'm pretty sure these shots were from the outside and not really quality chances. I'd be curious to see how many scoring chance those include. The chinese keeper also plays big in net and unless you move her around she seemed solid to me

 

[Soriano12]

Skeleton Men
Montgomery (CAN) +300 (SIA)
Best racer in practice, more experience on this track than his competition since he's Canadian and allowed to practice there before and the Canadian team should know the weather and track conditions better than anybody else, so the sled should be in great shape.
Imo Montgomery should be favored and shouldn't pay more than ~+150 or +175

 

[rpark]

I didn't watch this game but I did watch the Canadian and even losing 12-1 this chinese team is well coach and i'm pretty sure these shots were from the outside and not really quality chances. I'd be curious to see how many scoring chance those include. The chinese keeper also plays big in net and unless you move her around she seemed solid to me

She played well though Finland wasn't putting mustard on the shots like Canada was. Most of the shots, the puck was flopping in the air. I mean my passes are harder then 1/2 the shots that were taken. It wasn't like the shots I saw in the Canada game. I think China played well defensively, not allowing good scoring chances like break aways or 2 on ones.

 

[guil0000]

She played well though Finland wasn't putting mustard on the shots like Canada was. Most of the shots, the puck was flopping in the air. I mean my passes are harder then 1/2 the shots that were taken. It wasn't like the shots I saw in the Canada game. I think China played well defensively, not allowing good scoring chances like break aways or 2 on ones.

Yeah that's why I tought their was a chance the spread might hold but I didn't see any games from the Fins so I was hesitant to pull the trigger.

 

[Soriano12]

Luge Doubles
Outright Winner: Linger/Linger +250 (boylesports)

Sics/Sics Top3 +400 (bwin)
Sics/Sics H2H (vs Schiegl/Schiegl) +112 (pinnacle)

Womens Downhill
Goergl H2H (vs. Stechert) -140 (bwin)

Styger Top3 +700

Luge Doubles:
Linger/Linger 1st place
Sics/Sics 2nd place


Goergl 3rd place (Stechert 10th)
Styger without a chance...

4-1 night with 3times plus money.

 

[chriscol]

Olofson over Kuzmina @ 1.84
Neuner over Jonsson @ 2.1

BOL

 

[chriscol]

actually like Olofsson to win @ 10.0

 

[chriscol]

both matchups won...for the men:

Eder over M Fourcade @ 2.05

Eder better in shooting might even make up 1 error...in addition he starts with 16 while fourcade very late as 85th which might be a factor here.

Tscherezov over M Fourcade @ 1.94

same story as above

Greis over Bjorndalen @ 2.55

they are similar in running and coming down to shootin something is wrong with OLe in my opinion while Greis looked very good yesterday...

more to come

 

[chriscol]

Sikora over Jay @ 2.01

a bit risky but i see a let down for jay after the two great races. Sikora is a bit shaky in shooting so far but if he can keep it close he should win as he will definetely make up one error probably even two in running...in addition again he starts with no 1 while jay is late as 69th

 

[chriscol]

Greis over Svendsson @ 2.11

Again, i like Greis having a great race (even with a good chance of winning @ 10.0).
Svendsson is slower and Greis has a shot of making up an error. Sendsson struggled both days in shooting, so i like my chances here

 

[mayday]

Good luck chriscol! May try some of these