Bragg's Week 1

jbragg10 · Sep 9, 2009

Flat betting these games:
Texans -4
Packers -3
Falcons -4
Vikings -3
Cowboys -5
Cardinals -6
Chargers -7
Panthers +1.5
Colts -7

I know ... a lot of favorites, but I never really care about that. If you pick the right ones ... who cares. lol

FYI ... Favorites are 19-12 (61%) opening week the last 2 years (I could care less about dumb past facts like these, but some people actually look at this when capping, so I thought I would throw that out there).

sdf · Sep 9, 2009

interesting that faves are 19-12...i would expect that trend to reverse itself this year

ATS OU SU season
10-6-0 (2.4) 7-9-0 (-1.3) 11-5-0 (7.56) 2008
9-5-2 (4.3) 5-11-0 (-2.5) 12-4-0 (8.38) 2007
5-10-0 (-2.7) 4-11-0 (-4.7) 8-7-0 (1.60) 2006
9-7-0 (2.0) 7-9-0 (-3.7) 10-6-0 (6.56) 2005
7-9-0 (-0.9) 7-9-0 (-3.3) 11-5-0 (3.31) 2004
9-6-1 (3.6) 7-9-0 (-1.6) 11-5-0 (7.81) 2003
5-11-0 (-4.3) 12-4-0 (9.7) 9-7-0 (0.12) 2002
8-5-1 (3.9) 4-10-0 (-4.1) 12-2-0 (8.93) 2001
7-8-0 (-0.3) 5-10-0 (-2.7) 12-3-0 (4.80) 2000
3-11-0 (-2.4) 8-6-0 (6.2) 7-7-0 (3.07) 1999
9-5-1 (5.7) 7-7-1 (2.2) 13-2-0 (10.93) 1998
4-9-1 (-6.2) 10-4-0 (2.3) 8-6-0 (0.14) 1997
8-7-0 (0.6) 2-13-0 (-5.6) 11-4-0 (5.40) 1996
7-7-1 (1.9) 6-9-0 (-2.0) 11-4-0 (7.73) 1995
7-6-0 (-1.4) 8-5-0 (7.7) 9-4-0 (3.77) 1994
9-4-1 (4.9) 10-4-0 (5.0) 12-2-0 (10.64) 1993
4-8-1 (-3.5) 5-8-0 (-2.0) 8-5-0 (1.23) 1992
9-5-0 (6.2) 7-7-0 (-1.1) 12-2-0 (10.64) 1991
7-7-0 (0.2) 7-7-0 (-0.2) 9-5-0 (5.00) 1990
9-5-0 (9.6) 9-4-1 (3.8) 11-3-0 (13.64) 1989

jbragg10 · Sep 9, 2009

Here is what I am saying (non the less). To me, it doesn't really matter if you choose favs or dogs. I see an average on that first week as 7-9 wins. I picked 8 favorites. If I get 5 out of 8 of those favorites, it's money non the less.

If you cap a game and see it towards the favorite but you realized you already have 6 favorites, do you not play that game b/c you already have 6 other favorites?

bossA3 · Sep 9, 2009

Are you going to be doing $$$$ plays in NFL this year or just college football. Either way, best of luck on your plays.

sdf · Sep 9, 2009

jbragg10 said:
Here is what I am saying (non the less). To me, it doesn't really matter if you choose favs or dogs. I see an average on that first week as 7-9 wins. I picked 8 favorites. If I get 5 out of 8 of those favorites, it's money non the less.

If you cap a game and see it towards the favorite but you realized you already have 6 favorites, do you not play that game b/c you already have 6 other favorites?

i didnt really say anything about your picks at all. just that i would expect fewer favs to win this year than the last 2.

indiana · Sep 9, 2009

brag...........

bol to you this year....thanks for the plays

indy

jbragg10 · Sep 9, 2009

bossA3: I have not decided how I will be doing money plays. It might be a couple weeks. I will see how the flat betting goes and get a real feel on the teams before I start putting some heavy money on them.

sdf: no prob ... you could very well be right (hopefully I picked all the right ones) lol

indiana: thanks and good luck to you as well.

midman2161 · Sep 9, 2009

where are you getting these lines? chargers -7 still available?

jbragg10 · Sep 9, 2009

midman2161 said:
where are you getting these lines? chargers -7 still available?

I got these yesterday from my local. I just had time to post them today.

jbragg10 · Sep 9, 2009

My LARGE money play is on this game for the week:
Packers -3 (LARGE)

jgm4661 · Sep 9, 2009

I like CAR as well. McNab always seems to make road wins difficult, the CIN tie ly comes to mind. IND and sd should cover as well.

BAL (have em at 10.5),NYG, NE, dal, NO are other favs looking good. HOU possibly against a rookie QB, new coach & 2 def suspensions on the road should cover the 4.5.

So many new coaches & QB's makes the early weeks tough. Who is going to be this years MIA or ATL? CLE could be tougher as they have stockpiled DL and have a few more pass rushers. Will be interesting.

jbragg10 · Sep 9, 2009

thanks and good luck jgm

JWinner17 · Sep 9, 2009

I am loving the fact that you are loving my Packers!!! I think we are a bit underrated this year. That 3-4 Defense will do us some good...

Born2Gamble_ · Sep 9, 2009

greenbay -3.5 is -103 and for -3 = -125 ...which route should I go?

jbragg10 · Sep 9, 2009

JWinner17: I love the Packers this year. Rodgers is really going to blow up this year. If Grant can give them solid rushing, look out.

Born2Gamble_: I think I would rather have the -3.

jbragg10 · Sep 9, 2009

I'm liking this one large as well:
Steelers -6

Updated plays:
Packers -3 (LARGE)
Steelers -6 (LARGE)
Texans -4
Falcons -4
Vikings -3
Cowboys -5
Cardinals -6
Chargers -7
Panthers +1.5
Colts -7

That should be it for plays. Good luck this week fellas!

skinsfan21 · Sep 9, 2009

I do like the fact that you do not care about whether or not you pay a lot of favorites. Some guys on this website calls that square betting or the obvious signs of a newbie but, as you stated earlier, money is money. The trend is there for a reason and I do not see any reason why it would change this year. A lot of new coaches in the leagye, new qbs, and most favorites are at home. I am jumping on the Cowboys and Texans bandwagon and I do love the Packers. Good luck on your plays and keep posting the LARGE play on the week. For me it is DALLAS-5.5. Cowboys are awesome in the regular season (cant do anything in the postseason, but what can you do). Redskins fan betting the COWBOYS........money is money. Ill take it anyway I can. GL bro.

jbragg10 · Sep 9, 2009

yea ... I don't even look at how many fav's or dog's I play until I am done capping every game one game at a time.
Some weeks, I might have all dog's ... you just never know.

Smallplayer · Sep 9, 2009

JBRAGG, do you have a write up for your Steelers pick?

jbragg10 · Sep 9, 2009

no ... but I can give you some quick facts why I like it:
Steelers at home
Revenge game for Steelers from last year. Titans were real cocky about the game and I think the Steelers have not forgot about it (stomping on the terrible towels)
Titans are not the same type of team as the past. People see the name and think nothing of it, but they have lost a lot.

I think the Steelers shut down the run game and make Collins try to beat them. I don't see Kerry doing anything against this tough secondary either.

Steelers should be able to run the ball well (expecially with Haynesworth not in the middle). I think the Titans are really going to miss him.

I really think Steelers win by 10+ tomorrow.