Whether it is a March Madness office pool, an online contest or a friendly wager between friends, the most common question I receive as a professional handicapper is the following: "Which NCAA Tournament seeds present the best chance of pulling an upset in the first and second rounds?" Hopefully, you will find the information below helpful as you begin the difficult task of completing your Tournament bracket.
16 VERSUS 1
Teams have been seeded 1 through 16 since 1985 and, since that time, a No. 16 seed has never defeated a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament (0-96). With this empirical evidence in hand, you should never select a No. 16 seed to win in your bracket.
15 VERSUS 2
Since 1985, No. 15 seeds are a terrible 4-92 (4.2%) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Indeed, a No. 15 seed has not defeated a No. 2 seed in eight years when Hampton pulled an incredible upset over Iowa State. While Belmont nearly defeated Duke last year, you should side with the No. 2 seeds in your office bracket as they present the best value from a historical (and probability) standpoint. However, after the first round, No. 2 seeds have not been as reliable as at least one No. 2 seed has been defeated in the second round over the last twelve years.
14 VERSUS 3
While No. 14 seeds have enjoyed slightly more succes than No. 15 seeds, they remain an unreliable 15-81 (15.6%) since 1985. Last season, No. 14 seeds we 0-4 in the Tournament, with Georgia nearly pulling the upset over Xavier. I should also note that the fifteen No. 14 seeds that managed to escape the opening round with a win are 2-13 in the second round of the Tournament. Once again, historical trends and mathematical probability dictate avoiding No. 14 seeds in your office bracket.
13 VERSUS 4
No. 13 seeds have a slightly better probability of succeeding in the first round of the Tournament as evidenced by their 20-76 (20.8%) record since 1985. Last season, No. 13 seeds proved to be a good choice in brackets all over the country as they were 2-2 in the opening round with both San Diego and Siena pulling the outright upsets. However, before going crazy and choosing more than one No. 13 seed to succeed in the opening round game, keep in mind that multiple 13 seeds have won only twice over the last 24 years.
12 VERSUS 5
Historically, No. 12 seeds have been very good in the NCAA Tournament as they are 31-65 (32.3%) since 1985. Indeed, No. 12 seeds were 2-2 in last year's Tournament as both Villanova and Western Kentucky won in the opening round. In short, you should always pick at least one No. 12 seed to win their first round game, and that conclusion is supported by the fact that one or more No. 12 seeds have won in 21 of the last 24 Tournaments. Let's also note that No. 12 seeds are a remarkable 16-15 in the second round!
11 VERSUS 6
Last season, 75% of the No. 11 seeds lost in the first round of the Tournament. However, No. 11 seeds are a modest 30-66 (31.3%) since 1985, and at least one No. 11 seed has won a game in eight of the last nine tournaments. And, while selecting at least one No. 11 seed to prevail in the first round, it is also worth considering taking a No. 6 seed to win the first two rounds of the Tournament. Indeed, No. 6 seeds are an amazing 35-31 in second round games, whereas No. 7 seeds are a terrible 18-42 in the second round.
10 VERSUS 7
Before you think about taking a No. 10 seed in your bracket, be aware that No. 7 seeds have dominated the first round over the last five years. In fact, No. 7 seeds are 7-1 (88%) over the last two Tournaments and 15-5 (67%) since 2003. Moreover, No. 7 seeds have performed well in the second round as at least one No. 7 has defeated a No. 2 in each of the last six Big Dances. Since 1985, No. 10 seeds are 36-60 (37.5%) in the first round of the Tournament. You should also know that a No. 10 seed has never advanced to the Final Four.
9 VERSUS 8
Since 1985, No. 9 seeds are a decent 52-44 (54.2%) in the first round of the Tournament. However, while picking a No. 9 seed to prevail in the first round appears to be a smart move, be advised that a No. 9 seed has never advanced past the Elite Eight. Conversely, three No. 8 seeds have reached the Final Four, with Villanova taking home the national title in 1985. Moreover, No. 9 seeds are a dreadful 3-49 (5.8%) versus No. 1 seeds in the second round, whereas No. 8 seeds are 9-35 (20.5%) versus the best squads in the country.
16 VERSUS 1
Teams have been seeded 1 through 16 since 1985 and, since that time, a No. 16 seed has never defeated a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament (0-96). With this empirical evidence in hand, you should never select a No. 16 seed to win in your bracket.
15 VERSUS 2
Since 1985, No. 15 seeds are a terrible 4-92 (4.2%) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Indeed, a No. 15 seed has not defeated a No. 2 seed in eight years when Hampton pulled an incredible upset over Iowa State. While Belmont nearly defeated Duke last year, you should side with the No. 2 seeds in your office bracket as they present the best value from a historical (and probability) standpoint. However, after the first round, No. 2 seeds have not been as reliable as at least one No. 2 seed has been defeated in the second round over the last twelve years.
14 VERSUS 3
While No. 14 seeds have enjoyed slightly more succes than No. 15 seeds, they remain an unreliable 15-81 (15.6%) since 1985. Last season, No. 14 seeds we 0-4 in the Tournament, with Georgia nearly pulling the upset over Xavier. I should also note that the fifteen No. 14 seeds that managed to escape the opening round with a win are 2-13 in the second round of the Tournament. Once again, historical trends and mathematical probability dictate avoiding No. 14 seeds in your office bracket.
13 VERSUS 4
No. 13 seeds have a slightly better probability of succeeding in the first round of the Tournament as evidenced by their 20-76 (20.8%) record since 1985. Last season, No. 13 seeds proved to be a good choice in brackets all over the country as they were 2-2 in the opening round with both San Diego and Siena pulling the outright upsets. However, before going crazy and choosing more than one No. 13 seed to succeed in the opening round game, keep in mind that multiple 13 seeds have won only twice over the last 24 years.
12 VERSUS 5
Historically, No. 12 seeds have been very good in the NCAA Tournament as they are 31-65 (32.3%) since 1985. Indeed, No. 12 seeds were 2-2 in last year's Tournament as both Villanova and Western Kentucky won in the opening round. In short, you should always pick at least one No. 12 seed to win their first round game, and that conclusion is supported by the fact that one or more No. 12 seeds have won in 21 of the last 24 Tournaments. Let's also note that No. 12 seeds are a remarkable 16-15 in the second round!
11 VERSUS 6
Last season, 75% of the No. 11 seeds lost in the first round of the Tournament. However, No. 11 seeds are a modest 30-66 (31.3%) since 1985, and at least one No. 11 seed has won a game in eight of the last nine tournaments. And, while selecting at least one No. 11 seed to prevail in the first round, it is also worth considering taking a No. 6 seed to win the first two rounds of the Tournament. Indeed, No. 6 seeds are an amazing 35-31 in second round games, whereas No. 7 seeds are a terrible 18-42 in the second round.
10 VERSUS 7
Before you think about taking a No. 10 seed in your bracket, be aware that No. 7 seeds have dominated the first round over the last five years. In fact, No. 7 seeds are 7-1 (88%) over the last two Tournaments and 15-5 (67%) since 2003. Moreover, No. 7 seeds have performed well in the second round as at least one No. 7 has defeated a No. 2 in each of the last six Big Dances. Since 1985, No. 10 seeds are 36-60 (37.5%) in the first round of the Tournament. You should also know that a No. 10 seed has never advanced to the Final Four.
9 VERSUS 8
Since 1985, No. 9 seeds are a decent 52-44 (54.2%) in the first round of the Tournament. However, while picking a No. 9 seed to prevail in the first round appears to be a smart move, be advised that a No. 9 seed has never advanced past the Elite Eight. Conversely, three No. 8 seeds have reached the Final Four, with Villanova taking home the national title in 1985. Moreover, No. 9 seeds are a dreadful 3-49 (5.8%) versus No. 1 seeds in the second round, whereas No. 8 seeds are 9-35 (20.5%) versus the best squads in the country.
