[h=1]Bracket Math: Duke takes top spot[/h][h=3]La Salle, Boise State, Kentucky, Virginia last four in; Cardinals a No. 1 seed[/h]
By Joe Lunardi | ESPN Insider
This edition of Bracket Math includes games through March 10. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
Notes on the "new" math:
• We've officially come full circle since the start of 2013. Duke was the clear No. 1 overall seed when the calendar turned to January, and the Blue Devils have regained that perch after giving it up to several challengers during the span of Ryan Kelly's injury. But now that Kelly is back and the Devils have posted an impressive road win with him in the lineup, there is nothing to question about Duke's credentials. If the Blue Devils capture the ACC tournament, they will be 21-0 with Kelly in the lineup and first on the S-curve come Selection Sunday night.
• Just a note that we raise the tourney odds to 90 percent for all teams listed in green from this point forward. As you can see, there really aren't many spots left in the field. In the unlikely event a team drops out of this near-lock status, we're talking no more than a half-dozen spots in play during the next seven days and nights.
• Only one impactful Monday game: St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga (WCC title). A Gonzaga win should assure the Bulldogs a No. 1 seed for the first time in school history. Anything other than an overwhelming defeat should keep the Gaels in the projected NCAA field.
[h=3]The Bracket[/h]
This is where I project teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart.
<OFFER>ALL CAPS: Highest remaining seed or AQ (automatic qualifier in BOLD).
GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 90 percent or better through games of March 10.
YELLOW: Last four in (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio)
GOLD: Lowest four automatic bids (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio)
RED: First four out (teams 69-72 on the S-curve)
PURPLE: Next four out (teams 73-76 on the S-curve)
[h=4]The full S-curve[/h]
ALL CAPS: conference leader
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[h=3]The Math[/h]
Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 90 percent or better) and you now have 43 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that's another 20 spots. All told we have 63 of the 68 spots accounted for, with only five up for grabs among current "bubble" teams.
[h=3]The bubble (13 teams for 5 spots)[/h]
IN (5, in S-curve order):
44. Temple, 45. La Salle, 46. Boise State, 47. Kentucky, 49. Virginia
OUT (8, in S-curve order):
69. Tennessee, 70. Middle Tennessee, 71. Ole Miss, 72. Baylor,73. Southern Miss, 74. Alabama, 75. Iowa, 76. Arizona State
[h=3]Conference breakdown[/h]• Big East (8)
• Big Ten (7)
• ACC (5)
• Atlantic 10 (5)
• Big 12 (5)
• Mountain West (5)
• Pac-12 (5)
• SEC (3)
• Missouri Valley (2)
• West Coast (2)
[h=3]N.I.T. automatic qualifiers[/h]• Charleston Southern/BIG SOUTH
• Mercer/ATLANTIC SUN
• Middle Tennessee/SUN BELT*
• Niagara/MAAC
• Northeastern/COLONIAL
• Robert Morris/NEC
• Stony Brook/AMERICA EAST
* if no NCAA at-large bid
By Joe Lunardi | ESPN Insider
This edition of Bracket Math includes games through March 10. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
Notes on the "new" math:
• We've officially come full circle since the start of 2013. Duke was the clear No. 1 overall seed when the calendar turned to January, and the Blue Devils have regained that perch after giving it up to several challengers during the span of Ryan Kelly's injury. But now that Kelly is back and the Devils have posted an impressive road win with him in the lineup, there is nothing to question about Duke's credentials. If the Blue Devils capture the ACC tournament, they will be 21-0 with Kelly in the lineup and first on the S-curve come Selection Sunday night.
• Just a note that we raise the tourney odds to 90 percent for all teams listed in green from this point forward. As you can see, there really aren't many spots left in the field. In the unlikely event a team drops out of this near-lock status, we're talking no more than a half-dozen spots in play during the next seven days and nights.
• Only one impactful Monday game: St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga (WCC title). A Gonzaga win should assure the Bulldogs a No. 1 seed for the first time in school history. Anything other than an overwhelming defeat should keep the Gaels in the projected NCAA field.
[h=3]The Bracket[/h]
This is where I project teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart.
<OFFER>ALL CAPS: Highest remaining seed or AQ (automatic qualifier in BOLD).
GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 90 percent or better through games of March 10.
YELLOW: Last four in (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio)
GOLD: Lowest four automatic bids (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio)
RED: First four out (teams 69-72 on the S-curve)
PURPLE: Next four out (teams 73-76 on the S-curve)
[h=4]The full S-curve[/h]
ALL CAPS: conference leader
1. Duke | 2. INDIANA | 3. GONZAGA | 4. Louisville |
8. Ohio State | 7. MIAMI (FL) | 6. GEORGETOWN | 5. KANSAS |
9. Michigan St | 10. NEW MEXICO | 11. Michigan | 12. FLORIDA |
16. Wisconsin | 15. Oklahoma State | 14. Kansas State | 13. Marquette |
17. Pittsburgh | 18. Syracuse | 19. Arizona | 20. SAINT LOUIS |
24. Butler | 23. UCLA | 22. Vcu | 21. Unlv |
25. Notre Dame | 26. North Carolina | 27. MEMPHIS | 28. Colorado State |
32. Illinois | 31. CREIGHTON | 30. Missouri | 29. NC State |
33. Oregon | 34. Minnesota | 35. San Diego State | 36. California |
40. Cincinnati | 39. Saint Mary's | 38. Colorado | 37. Oklahoma |
41. Villanova | 42. Wichita State | 43. Iowa State | 44. Temple |
48. BELMONT | 47. Kentucky | 46. Boise State | 45. La Salle |
49. Virginia | 50. BUCKNELL | 51. LA TECH | 52. AKRON |
56. SO. DAKOTA ST | 55. S.F. AUSTIN | 54. VALPARAISO | 53. DAVIDSON |
57. HARVARD | 58. MONTANA | 59. FGCU | 60. IONA |
64. NORTHEASTERN | 63. FLA. INTL | 62. VERMONT | 61. LONG BEACH |
65. LONG ISLAND | 66. NORFOLK ST | 67. SOUTHERN U. | 68. LIBERTY |
72. Baylor | 71. Ole Miss | 70. Middle Tennessee | 69. Tennessee |
73. Southern Miss | 74. Alabama | 75. Iowa | 76. Arizona State |
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[h=3]The Math[/h]
Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 90 percent or better) and you now have 43 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that's another 20 spots. All told we have 63 of the 68 spots accounted for, with only five up for grabs among current "bubble" teams.
[h=3]The bubble (13 teams for 5 spots)[/h]
IN (5, in S-curve order):
44. Temple, 45. La Salle, 46. Boise State, 47. Kentucky, 49. Virginia
OUT (8, in S-curve order):
69. Tennessee, 70. Middle Tennessee, 71. Ole Miss, 72. Baylor,73. Southern Miss, 74. Alabama, 75. Iowa, 76. Arizona State
[h=3]Conference breakdown[/h]• Big East (8)
• Big Ten (7)
• ACC (5)
• Atlantic 10 (5)
• Big 12 (5)
• Mountain West (5)
• Pac-12 (5)
• SEC (3)
• Missouri Valley (2)
• West Coast (2)
[h=3]N.I.T. automatic qualifiers[/h]• Charleston Southern/BIG SOUTH
• Mercer/ATLANTIC SUN
• Middle Tennessee/SUN BELT*
• Niagara/MAAC
• Northeastern/COLONIAL
• Robert Morris/NEC
• Stony Brook/AMERICA EAST
* if no NCAA at-large bid