15* Pittsburgh Steelers ML -240
As many of you know, I am very good on big games, and as much as I would like to lay the -6.5 here, I think I will take the much safer bet and take the "near" guaranteed money.
Pittsburgh played in the tougher division, has the experience, has the advantage in playing on the road and traveling, has the defensive advantage by a longshot, the running game advantage, etc.
Larry Fitzgerald might be my favorite player in the NFL, but WR play typically has a minimal impact on big games. Running game, defense coaching, intangibles and QB play always comes before the big name WRs. Always.
The thing I really respect about the Steelers is the manner in which they have defeated their opponents, this season and in the playoffs.
In the season, they found a way to win games - at the buzzer, come from behind, whatever it took, these guys never say die, and that always bodes well for a ML bet. The 2nd thing, is they crushed their opponents in the playoffs for the entirety of the game, while the Cardinals had lapses.
When you break it down, the Cards were just a 9-7 football team, in one of the worst divisions in the NFL, beat up on a rookie QB and a Falcon team that was one of the worst in the NFL the year before, they played very well and rattled Jake Delhomme and a Panther team that abandoned their running game for some odd reason, and then almost got backdoored by an Eagles team that snuck into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth. Two of the Cards playoff games were at home vs. teams traveling from the east coast. The Cards rarely played a complete football game, and showed lapses during games, allowing teams to make a run, except vs. the Panthers.
One thing Pitt won't do that the Panthers did, is abandon their ground game. Pitt isn't fancy. They stick with what works. They aren't scared to line up, and run for 4-5 yards a pop for 9 plays in a row. They will wear down this Cards defense.
Now, the Cards defense is definitely an underrated unit. But let's get something straight and that is there is a difference between a good defense and a great defense. Pitt has a great defense and great defenses win Super Bowls. It is why the Steelers and their traditionally tough team is one of the most successful franchises in the history of the NFL. The formula works.
Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore and co. will run run run and that is something the Cards really havent faced. They havent faced a QB like Ben Roethlisberger, who certainly isnt flashy, but he doesnt get rattled like a Jake Delhomme. Ben is crafty in the pocket and very good at feeling pressure and avoiding the rush. You can hit him, and he will get up and keep trucking along. So I don't think the Cards pressure will rattle Ben the way it has a rookie QB or a Jake Delhomme.
In terms of intangibles, Pitt has the experience obviously, they are more rested, and they were the only team in the playoffs that was able to handle the week off and win their playoff game. It is a challenge the Cards haven't had to deal with yet. Typically in sports, it is the hot teams that need to get back out there and keep playing. Once something breaks their routine and rhythm, like a 2-week layoff, these types of hot teams are usually in trouble. I also like Ben's comment before facing the Titans in one of the last games of the regular season for homefield. They didnt care if they won the game vs. the Titans. He said they obviously want to win, but if they dont, they arent intimidated by going on the road and winning in the playoffs. It is a mentality that gives Pitt the edge in this game on a neutral field over a Cards team that is still unsure about traveling to the east coast or their ability to play away from their home field. I also dont like the chemistry issues with Boldin, the coaching staff and co that are brewing.
Finally, the blitz. The blitz burned the Eagles because they are a team that typically brings the house on blitzes, and that left Fitzgerald 1on1 on the outside. But the Steelers don't bring the house on blitzes. They will typically bring an additional linebacker or two as their bread and butter blitz, and I love Troy Polamalu back there as the best playmaking safety in the NFL next to Ed Reed.
Always take the game changing defense over a top flight offense. I mean, the Pats defense stymied the Greatest Show on Turf, which was a much more explosive offense than the current Cards unit.
We saw Pitt dismantle a "hot" team like Baltimore that came in with a ton of swagger and experience. And after the Giants upset the undefeated Pats in last years Super Bowl, the public feels a little more comfortable in taking the underdog this year. Not so fast.
Pitt 27
Arizona 17
As many of you know, I am very good on big games, and as much as I would like to lay the -6.5 here, I think I will take the much safer bet and take the "near" guaranteed money.
Pittsburgh played in the tougher division, has the experience, has the advantage in playing on the road and traveling, has the defensive advantage by a longshot, the running game advantage, etc.
Larry Fitzgerald might be my favorite player in the NFL, but WR play typically has a minimal impact on big games. Running game, defense coaching, intangibles and QB play always comes before the big name WRs. Always.
The thing I really respect about the Steelers is the manner in which they have defeated their opponents, this season and in the playoffs.
In the season, they found a way to win games - at the buzzer, come from behind, whatever it took, these guys never say die, and that always bodes well for a ML bet. The 2nd thing, is they crushed their opponents in the playoffs for the entirety of the game, while the Cardinals had lapses.
When you break it down, the Cards were just a 9-7 football team, in one of the worst divisions in the NFL, beat up on a rookie QB and a Falcon team that was one of the worst in the NFL the year before, they played very well and rattled Jake Delhomme and a Panther team that abandoned their running game for some odd reason, and then almost got backdoored by an Eagles team that snuck into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth. Two of the Cards playoff games were at home vs. teams traveling from the east coast. The Cards rarely played a complete football game, and showed lapses during games, allowing teams to make a run, except vs. the Panthers.
One thing Pitt won't do that the Panthers did, is abandon their ground game. Pitt isn't fancy. They stick with what works. They aren't scared to line up, and run for 4-5 yards a pop for 9 plays in a row. They will wear down this Cards defense.
Now, the Cards defense is definitely an underrated unit. But let's get something straight and that is there is a difference between a good defense and a great defense. Pitt has a great defense and great defenses win Super Bowls. It is why the Steelers and their traditionally tough team is one of the most successful franchises in the history of the NFL. The formula works.
Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore and co. will run run run and that is something the Cards really havent faced. They havent faced a QB like Ben Roethlisberger, who certainly isnt flashy, but he doesnt get rattled like a Jake Delhomme. Ben is crafty in the pocket and very good at feeling pressure and avoiding the rush. You can hit him, and he will get up and keep trucking along. So I don't think the Cards pressure will rattle Ben the way it has a rookie QB or a Jake Delhomme.
In terms of intangibles, Pitt has the experience obviously, they are more rested, and they were the only team in the playoffs that was able to handle the week off and win their playoff game. It is a challenge the Cards haven't had to deal with yet. Typically in sports, it is the hot teams that need to get back out there and keep playing. Once something breaks their routine and rhythm, like a 2-week layoff, these types of hot teams are usually in trouble. I also like Ben's comment before facing the Titans in one of the last games of the regular season for homefield. They didnt care if they won the game vs. the Titans. He said they obviously want to win, but if they dont, they arent intimidated by going on the road and winning in the playoffs. It is a mentality that gives Pitt the edge in this game on a neutral field over a Cards team that is still unsure about traveling to the east coast or their ability to play away from their home field. I also dont like the chemistry issues with Boldin, the coaching staff and co that are brewing.
Finally, the blitz. The blitz burned the Eagles because they are a team that typically brings the house on blitzes, and that left Fitzgerald 1on1 on the outside. But the Steelers don't bring the house on blitzes. They will typically bring an additional linebacker or two as their bread and butter blitz, and I love Troy Polamalu back there as the best playmaking safety in the NFL next to Ed Reed.
Always take the game changing defense over a top flight offense. I mean, the Pats defense stymied the Greatest Show on Turf, which was a much more explosive offense than the current Cards unit.
We saw Pitt dismantle a "hot" team like Baltimore that came in with a ton of swagger and experience. And after the Giants upset the undefeated Pats in last years Super Bowl, the public feels a little more comfortable in taking the underdog this year. Not so fast.
Pitt 27
Arizona 17
