Boxslayer's NFL Sunday 12/21/08

[Boxslayer]

Much better at college, but have been capping NFL for 5 years now, and have always been very profitable until the past 2 seasons, which have been inconsistent so I stopped posting my plays recently as I didnt feel they were helping. I have still been betting NFL despite not posting, and doing very well, so I am going to post them back up over the next few weeks.

3* Oakland Raiders +7 -110

Was on Houston big last week in their Super Bowl vs. the Titans in Houston, and now after a very hard fought, tough, emotional home win over division leader and rival Tennessee, Houston boards a plane with nothing to play for and goes to the west coast for a game against the lowly Raiders. What a let down spot.

Fargas is a talented back who has been carrying the load, but that is not when he is at his best. He is good, but not good enough to be a featured back on his own, and with D-Mac out, teams have been keying on Fargas and holding him in check and forcing the Raiders and Jamarcus Russell into very obvious passing situations where Russell is not good enough. The Raiders have tried to relieve some of that pressure off of Russell by passing on first down and running on 2nd down, but that has not worked either as Fargas is not explosive enough to keep defenses totally honest.

With D-Mac playing the past 2 weeks, the Raiders now have a dynamic 1-2 punch in the backfield, which should help ease some pressure off Jamarcus Russell to win the games for this team as he has been relied on too much to do. This should put him in better play action situations, and find some more open receivers. Houston's rush Defense ranks 5th worst in the NFL, so expect the Raiders to be able to establish a ground game.

After Andre Johnson went off for 200 last week, he will have to square off vs. a pretty good Raiders secondary and defense overall which should play a bit better at home. Oakland will threaten the straight up win vs. a Texans team that has proven to just be a .500 ball club, but in the end 7 points is way too many here.

Houston 23
Oakland 21

 

[Boxslayer]

2* Miami Dolphins -3 -110

As long as Miami has a spread within 3 or 4, I usually like the Dolphins. Once they get up into the 6 and 7 range like last week, that is usually too many points for this team to cover.

Miami controls their own destiny to make the playoffs. If they win vs. KC and beat the Jets, they win the division. Next week should be the showdown between Miami and the Jets but it doesnt happen without winning this game first.

I dont think Miami looks ahead here as head coach Tony Sparano has emphasized to his team that Miami is already in the playoffs and this is a do or die game. Miami has taken that approach the past few weeks and I like their mindset coming into this game.

Miami's defense has not allowed a TD in 3 straight games, while KC's has one of the worst overall defenses in the league. Pennington and the Phins lead the NFL in turnover margin and Ricky and Ronnie should be able to chew up yards vs. a poor rush D.

KC is off another brutal loss to the Chargers, and must be deflated. Outside of the division the Chiefs have not covered a non divisional game all year.

Thigpen in the shotgun most of the game in the Pistol set, means Miami will cut Joey Porter and the 2nd ranked NFL sack defense loose.

Miami's formula seems to play out well here again: play great defense, run the ball, Pennington makes just enough plays and beat another poor QB.

These guys are one of the few teams in the NFL that believe in the team concept, are playing like a team, have that chemistry, believe in their head coach, have no off the field issues and are focused on the task at hand.

Take the better team here.

Miami 24
KC 19

 

[ProphetablePicks]

Much better at college, but have been capping NFL for 5 years now, and have always been very profitable until the past 2 seasons, which have been inconsistent so I stopped posting my plays recently as I didnt feel they were helping. I have still been betting NFL despite not posting, and doing very well, so I am going to post them back up over the next few weeks.

3* Oakland Raiders +7 -110

Was on Houston big last week in their Super Bowl vs. the Titans in Houston, and now after a very hard fought, tough, emotional home win over division leader and rival Tennessee, Houston boards a plane with nothing to play for and goes to the west coast for a game against the lowly Raiders. What a let down spot.

Fargas is a talented back who has been carrying the load, but that is not when he is at his best. He is good, but not good enough to be a featured back on his own, and with D-Mac out, teams have been keying on Fargas and holding him in check and forcing the Raiders and Jamarcus Russell into very obvious passing situations where Russell is not good enough. The Raiders have tried to relieve some of that pressure off of Russell by passing on first down and running on 2nd down, but that has not worked either as Fargas is not explosive enough to keep defenses totally honest.

With D-Mac playing the past 2 weeks, the Raiders now have a dynamic 1-2 punch in the backfield, which should help ease some pressure off Jamarcus Russell to win the games for this team as he has been relied on too much to do. This should put him in better play action situations, and find some more open receivers. Houston's rush Defense ranks 5th worst in the NFL, so expect the Raiders to be able to establish a ground game.

After Andre Johnson went off for 200 last week, he will have to square off vs. a pretty good Raiders secondary and defense overall which should play a bit better at home. Oakland will threaten the straight up win vs. a Texans team that has proven to just be a .500 ball club, but in the end 7 points is way too many here.

Houston 23
Oakland 21

good luck Box but the Raiders secondary is far from decent! They are GAWD AWFUL!! hno:

 

[across777]

GL Box...

 

[Falcon_420]

Yeah, I'm a big Raider fan, but at this point I would not put any faith in them, they are just terrible right now.....

 

[Boxslayer]

1* Carolina Panthers +3.5 -110

Carolina was a little inconsistent early in the year, but they have found a formula that works very well and now they are one of the NFL's top teams. John Fox has always been one of the top coaches in the NFL, and this team is quietly punishing people while Indy, Pitt, Giants, Cowboys get all the press.

The Giants are just not the same team, and betting on the Giants for the simple fact that "I cant see them losing 3 games in a row" is a horrible angle and not how you win in this sport.

Giants from losing Osi, to Strahan, to Plax, to Jacobs, this team is getting gutted of playmakers. While Jacobs should play today, he will not be 100% and the bruising back the Giants need, and Plax out of the passing game has hurt this team a ton.

The Giants beat people by pressuring the QB and forcing the QB into mistakes, sacks, etc. But Carolina has an outstanding ground game and they are just punishing people on the line. You can slow a pass rush like the Giants by ramming the rock right at them and Carolinas O-line and 2 headed backfield of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stweart is just what the doctor ordered vs. a defense like this.

Cold temperatures will make this a ground game, and thats what Carolina wants. Carolina has been playing good football, Giants have not and are reeling for answers to how they can win games void of their big playmakers on both sides of the ball. Injuries are mounting and the G-Men are a team without an identity right now.

Carolina will wear them down on the ground, with just enough passing to Steve Smith to maintain balance.

Carolina 27
New York 23

 

[Boxslayer]

good luck Box but the Raiders secondary is far from decent! They are GAWD AWFUL!! hno:

Oakland has the #8 pass defense in the NFL and their 14 INTs rank #11 in the NFL.

 

[ProphetablePicks]

Oakland has the #8 pass defense in the NFL and their 14 INTs rank #11 in the NFL.

look at the past few games bro.. especially last week. This Houston team is red hot and will put up 30 plus today.

 

[Boxslayer]

Yeah, I'm a big Raider fan, but at this point I would not put any faith in them, they are just terrible right now.....

Two of my best friends are from El Sobrante, CA Oakland area and we talk about games each week as they call me for advice. Ones a big Raiders fan and ones a big Niners fan. They both think their teams suck, etc.

Because fans are so emotionally tied to a team, they are always the first to boost their team when they are winning and get really down on their team when they are losing. They watch every agonizing minute of every game when the team is losing, and every enjoyable minute of every game when they are winning.

My point is, fans of teams think their team is the best when they are winning, and the worst when they are losing because they see every play.

I have watched Raider games the past few weeks, I have seen them play as well. They have flat out been outtalented the past 2 weeks. As a neutral observer's perspective, although they have been playing bad and losing, their is a distinct difference between watching the Raiders and watching the Lions. The Lions trip over their own feet, collide into each other, no confidence, no idea whats going on.

The Raiders are losing the fundamental levels of the game. They have talent and they have some pieces in place and you sit there and say "Man if this team could run the ball a little bit and take some pressure off Russell, they could win a couple games." But everyone is teeing off on the guy and Fargas cant get it done by himself.

Oaklands defense is decent enough overall to win right now, but when your offense never scores its hard to play inspired defense.

I think a lot will change with a running game, and if DMac and Fargas come to play today, you will see that defense step up, Jamarcus make a few plays, etc.

Remember this also, Houston is one of the worst road teams in the NFL.

Good luck to your Raaaaaaaidas.

 

[pubguy]

I agree with the letdown angle on the Texans, but don't fool yourselves into thinking they have nothing to play for. Kubiak is coaching for his job and the team still has a chance for their first winning season in franchise history. Some of the players have been there from day one and they point to this as a huge motivator. BOL on your plays

 

[Boxslayer]

look at the past few games bro.. especially last week. This Houston team is red hot and will put up 30 plus today.

I've seen the games on TV. They were getting torched by teams with very good talent. New England and San Diego have two of the most talented offenses in the NFL. Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the Patriots throw on everybody - and in a must win game. San Diego and Chambers, Jackson, Gates, LT, they have the ability to torch anybody on any given day. Those are arguably two of the most talented offenses in football.

But look at the previous weeks before that with Denver, KC, etc they shut them down pretty good. And those are teams with some pretty good offenses. You cant get too caught up in what happened last week.

This is a much better spot for this Raider D vs. Schaub, a rookie RB, Johnson, Kevin Walter. That offense is hardly as threatening as the previous two they have faced.

Look, I can't sit here and argue and act like the Raiders are some great team and go back and forth about this and that makes me look like I am saying how great the Raiders are. And I am not saying that.

I like their spot today is the bottom line - and their blowout the losses the past two weeks have inflated this line.

Texans are one of the worst road teams in the NFL. They are just not the same team on the road, and they have nothing to play for today, and are in a classic let down spot vs. a team getting healthy and being written off as the worst team.

GL

 

[thekid78]

I'm a big Dolphins fan and I agree with your write-up 100%. Today's game worries me and I considered playing them on the ML, but just decided to stay away. I think it will be a typical, close Phins game. Hope they get the cover for you. GL today

 

[YankeesRule]

Like miami going the other way on your other two bol

 

[Boxslayer]

1* Tennessee Titans +3 -110

Short writeup here as I have to get going.

Tennessee got caught in a look ahead spot last week on the road vs. a Texans team playing in their Super Bowl.

Here, they get a Pitt team that is physically and emotionally spent from 3 straight weeks of very physical and difficult games. Now they go on the road for the 2nd straight week.

Everyone is saying how the Steelers are the best team in the NFL right now and I dont see it yet. They struggle on offense, they are making just enough plays to win right now on offense, but that will change this week.

I am not saying Tennessee is the better team, I just like this spot for the Titans. IMO, they are taking this game a lot more seriously than the Pitt players are. I think the Steelers have confidence going on the road in the playoffs if they have to, and I think Tennessee wants this game bad. They had a guy dressed up in a wig this week to mimic Polamolau. Steelers Roethlisberger said he doesnt really care either way if Steelers win or lose this game, they dont need homefield to win in the playoffs. Obviously they want to win, but I think Titans come out and play the game of their lives today.

I like the motivated home team, that plays fundamentally sound football, and is very well coached, vs. a beat up road team that has struggled offensively and the public is in love with.

Strange note: Steelers have been victim of many referee blunders this season. Including this stat: Pitts opposing teams have not been called for a holding pentalty in 5 straight games.

Titans 21
Steelers 17

 

[Boxslayer]

Parlay for fun:

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="evenRow"><td class="dateCell">12/21/2008 @ 10:05 AM </td><td class="idCell">NFL</td><td class="pickCell">[106] TENNESSEE +3-120</td></tr><tr class="oddRow"><td class="dateCell">12/21/2008 @ 10:05 AM </td><td class="idCell">NFL</td><td class="pickCell">[107] MIAMI -3-125</td></tr><tr class="evenRow"><td class="dateCell">12/21/2008 @ 10:05 AM </td><td class="idCell">NFL</td><td class="pickCell">[110] NEW ENGLAND -375</td></tr><tr class="oddRow"><td class="dateCell">12/21/2008 @ 10:05 AM </td><td class="idCell">NFL</td><td class="pickCell">[115] SAN FRANCISCO -190</td></tr><tr class="evenRow"><td class="dateCell">12/21/2008 @ 10:05 AM </td><td class="idCell">NFL</td><td class="pickCell">[119] NEW ORLEANS -305</td></tr><tr class="oddRow"><td class="dateCell">12/21/2008 @ 05:15 PM </td><td class="idCell">NFL</td><td class="pickCell">[121] CAROLINA +3½-110</td></tr><tr class="evenRow"><td class="dateCell">12/21/2008 @ 01:05 PM </td><td class="idCell">NFL</td><td class="pickCell">[126] OAKLAND +7-110</td></tr></tbody></table>
$6 bucks to win $180

 

[Boxslayer]

my fun parlay has ended up looking like a chance to win a couple bucks. i always hedge parlays if i have 1 game left.....

calling all statistics geeks:

with the line Giants -4, whats the best way to hedge this?

thanks much....

 

[Romanowski]

let it ride its 6$

 

[TheGuarantee]

I don't much like hedging and definitely think there's more value in letting it ride. Giants moneyline would give you a nice middle where they can win by a FG though. That said at -200 or so and only winning 180 I really don't think it's worth it...though I do personally like the Giants tonight.

 

[benny0420]

my fun parlay has ended up looking like a chance to win a couple bucks. i always hedge parlays if i have 1 game left.....

calling all statistics geeks:

with the line Giants -4, whats the best way to hedge this?

thanks much....

No stat geek or a fan of hedging but if you must......

Buy the GMen down to 3 and risk like 90 bucks. You may push that and win the parlay. Either way you have won either $84 or $75 I think...

 

[Boxslayer]

let it ride its 6$

i dont care if its $1, profit is profit to me. why leave this big parlay on the table vs. one of the best teams in the NFL. if i can grab $90 i'll buy my niece and nephew an extra christmas gift. or i eliminate juice over my next 9 or 10 plays.