Boxslayer's NFL Plays Week #2

[Boxslayer]

2-3, -2.70 units

Started season 0-3, and have won 2 straight. Season not as bad as it looks: lost 2.5 units on Hines ward fumble, lost 1 unit on Raiders moneyline dog against Chargers last week. A play or 2 away from turning a profit, and starting to heat back up. On to week 2, good luck.

3* Atlanta Falcons -6 -110

The Atlanta Falcons really impressed me last week vs. The Dolphins. The average fan looks at the 19-7 game and thinks of a boring game, between 2 shit offenses. They would only be half right.

Dolphins Defense was nasty last week, and even nastier was this Falcons defense. This team may be one of the most physical in the NFL. They can pound the rock, they can rush the passer, they can deliver the big hits, they are rock solid at home, and Matt Ryan will be a Hall of Famer one day. I think once the word gets out about the falcons, they will start becoming doule digit faves, and until then I am going to ride them under reasonable spreads like this.

Carolina is obviously a team, and almost a franchise in disarray. The QB position is so important, and there isnt one worse in the NFL right now than Jake Delhomme. This guy has been a turnover machine, and Carolina will have to take the ball out of his hands and go a little more conservative until h starts figuring it out again. The problem is, you need your whole arsenal available when facing the Falcons in their house.

Carolina is 1-5 ATS last 6 as an underdog and Carolina is 1-4 ATS last 5 as a road underdog. Falcons are 7-3 ATS last 10 home games.

Atlanta 30
Carolina 19

 

[Boxslayer]

2* Parlay -106
1. Minnesota Vikings ML
2. New England Patriots ML

Matt Stafford is not very good, wasnt in college, and has a long way before he is in the pros. Vikings too many wweapons on offense and too good of a defense to not come away victorious.

New England had a slow start Monday Night, but with every snap Tom Brady takes he will get better this season. Rookie QB vs the Patriots defense and Bill belichick the master of confusing opposing QBs? Sanchez had a solid game, but his sole TD pass was to a wide open receiver. Let's relax and watch the season play out before annointing Sanchez the next Matt Ryan.

 

[FearTheRaven]

gl box, opposite atl. I think this is a huge game for carolina and they get the running game on track this week.

 

[VenomousSanction]

BOL Box

 

[DChosta]

like the parlay as well Boxy, my book didn't have the ML for Minny so I went w/ a 3 Team 7-pt. teaser w/ Tennessee @ pk, NE @ +3.5, and Minny -3.. let's hope we both cash this bizzitch

 

[Boxslayer]

1* Buffalo Bills -4 -110
1* Baltimore Ravens +1.5 -110
2* Seattle Seahawks +1 -110




Buffalo gets their "revenge game" at home vs Tampa Bays terrible secondary and an emphasis on getting the ball to TO and Evans. Fred Jackson's performance will make you say Marshanw who? Bucs are very bad and will prove to be one of the NFLs' worst teams, and you'll wonder why this line was so tight by season's end.

Ravens go cross country, but this is one time I am not concerned. San Diego is in major flux right now. Injuries all over the place, had a tough time with Oakland, and it's just not a good time to be facing this Ravens team. Ravens are too good, too physical and Joe Flacco is coming into his own. Chargers are very bad at home as a small favorite.

Seattle will prove to be a surprise team in the NFL this year. Their defense is strong, and Hasselbeck is obviously a veteran QB with an improved receiving corps and a motivated Julius Jones. New coaching staff in Seattle, so not a lot of game film on them for Singletary. Shaun Hill is bad at QB, and not enough of a playmaker to hang in this game. After the big win over Arizona, watch for the letdown here by San FRan. Seattle has owned them in San Fran.

 

[Boxslayer]

like the parlay as well Boxy, my book didn't have the ML for Minny so I went w/ a 3 Team 7-pt. teaser w/ Tennessee @ pk, NE @ +3.5, and Minny -3.. let's hope we both cash this bizzitch

didnt know welker was out and that was killer for new england because they couldnt get open all game

 

[DChosta]

right? I was pretty pissed that Edelman dropped so many important passes even when Brady was gaining some steam... Running game and special teams were shit, no pressure on Garcia.. it was over from the beginning sad to say. But at least the Falcons came up with that clutch defensive stop a little awhile ago w/ 2 min. left

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

1* Buffalo Bills -4 -110
1* Baltimore Ravens +1.5 -110
2* Seattle Seahawks +1 -110




Buffalo gets their "revenge game" at home vs Tampa Bays terrible secondary and an emphasis on getting the ball to TO and Evans. Fred Jackson's performance will make you say Marshanw who? Bucs are very bad and will prove to be one of the NFLs' worst teams, and you'll wonder why this line was so tight by season's end.

Ravens go cross country, but this is one time I am not concerned. San Diego is in major flux right now. Injuries all over the place, had a tough time with Oakland, and it's just not a good time to be facing this Ravens team. Ravens are too good, too physical and Joe Flacco is coming into his own. Chargers are very bad at home as a small favorite.

Seattle will prove to be a surprise team in the NFL this year. Their defense is strong, and Hasselbeck is obviously a veteran QB with an improved receiving corps and a motivated Julius Jones. New coaching staff in Seattle, so not a lot of game film on them for Singletary. Shaun Hill is bad at QB, and not enough of a playmaker to hang in this game. After the big win over Arizona, watch for the letdown here by San FRan. Seattle has owned them in San Fran.

Curious about something. Would you normally take the small points on a dog versus the ML? I was surprised you did not take the ML on the Ravens & Seahawks considering it seems more probable for an outright win versus a loss & cover.

 

[Boxslayer]

Curious about something. Would you normally take the small points on a dog versus the ML? I was surprised you did not take the ML on the Ravens & Seahawks considering it seems more probable for an outright win versus a loss & cover.

Just playing it conservative in the early going. If Ravens lose 21-20, I'd like to win my bet, instead of trying to win an additional 7%.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Just playing it conservative in the early going. If Ravens lose 21-20, I'd like to win my bet, instead of trying to win an additional 7%.

Gotcha, thanks for the answer.

 

[Boxslayer]

3* New York Giants +3 -115

Cowboys will continue to drift into mediocrity each year that they are separated from Bill Parcells and co.

Giants have adjusted and long moved on to life without Plaxico, showing so against a tough Washington team last week. Cowboys beat up on a really bad Bucs team, who got smacked by the Bills today.

Cowboys open their new stadium and thats all nice and dandy, but the Giants have owned the Cowboys in Texas. Giants are maybee the NFLs strongest road team over the past few years and should have no problems coming into town and making a game off this.

Look for a hard fougght NFC East game.

Giants 27
Cowboys 23

 

[bandaloop]

thanks box...you just sold me on my own play.

you always know just what to say!

 

[DChosta]

I'm not exactly sure how "tough" Washington is right now as they some definitely trouble getting their offense going against the G-men and barely managed to squeak by the Rams 9-7 (who got BLANKED by Seattle last week). I think that the Giants are still awaiting a proper test of their ability against a more capable football team and tonight should be it. Unfortunately, this is the only play tonight that I'm against you on Boxman, hopefully it's an exciting match-up at least!

 

[YankeesRule]

I am also on the giants

 

[DChosta]

lol, and that is why i lose... oh boy, it feels like these night games always got my number trying to fuck me up with either with a late backdoor cover or the team winning but not covering.. there were points throughout the game I thought Romo was gaining enough steam to complete these drives and the defense was clicking.. and the next drive, a completely different monster. Time to reflect on the week and go back to the drawing board. Congrats on a winning day Boxslayer.

 

[Boxslayer]

lol, and that is why i lose... oh boy, it feels like these night games always got my number trying to fuck me up with either with a late backdoor cover or the team winning but not covering.. there were points throughout the game I thought Romo was gaining enough steam to complete these drives and the defense was clicking.. and the next drive, a completely different monster. Time to reflect on the week and go back to the drawing board. Congrats on a winning day Boxslayer.

Forgot to mention in my brief writeup that Romo has lost his mojo.

 

[Boxslayer]

4-2, +3.68 on Sunday, will have a Monday Night play with a big writeup

My NFL Power Rankings:

1. Baltimore Ravens - Go to West Coast and get a big win. Flacco and co. finding ways to win.

2. Atlanta Falcons - Like I said in my writeup, Matt Ryan will be a Hall of Famer when all said and done. This team is super physical and very strong at home.

3. Minnesota Vikings - Too many weapons and a strong D wear down teams over 4 quarters.

4. New York Giants - 2 emergins atsr at WR, a good pass rush and steady Eli Manning showed they can win on the road in a game that meant a lot to the Cowboys and 110,000.

5. New York Jets - Mark Sanchez is for real. Great footwork, he's got swagger, strong arm, looks like a seasoned vet. Rex Ryan has made this defense into something formidable. Sanchez will still have his growing pains, making the Jets overvalued, but they are a good team.

Steelers and Patriots seem overvalued and Stellers and Pats could both easily be 0-2. No Polamalu is killing Pitt, and Brady looks like he hasnt played in 3 years instead of 1.

 

[Boxslayer]

3* Miami Dolphins +3 EVEN

I was on the Dolphins last week because of how Sparano has bred a winning metnality in Miami, how Parcells has rebuilt both lines, etc. Little did I know is that Atlanta will prove to be one of the NFLs top teams. They are VERY physical and Miami doesn't match up against physical teams (like the Ravens) because that is Miami's strength. But they aren't good enough at it yet to hang with the elite physical teams in the NFL - if that makes sense.

What they do match up against, is teams that aren't physical in the trenches. The Colts can't run the ball, and they can't stop the run. That is the strength of Miami. The Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combo got abandoned quickly last week vs. Atlanta, with both combining for 17 carries (which is what Brown averaged per game last year by himself).

Expect a heavy dose of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in this game and for them to get back to making Chad Pennington caretaker instead of gun slinger.

The Dolphins put themselves in predictable passing situations last week allowing John Abraham to tee off of newby Jake Long. Jake has been shredded this week by coach Tony Sparano and expect a better showing from him this week vs. Dwight Freeney as he has been challeneged all week in practice.

Jake will have help - with Miami running the ball and setting up plenty of short quick drops for Pennington, the Colts new blitz happy attack will be combatted - as Miami faced a heavy rush last week and spent all week making adjustments to combatting the blitz.

The Colts continue to be one of the NFLs sexiest teams, and sexy doesn't always mean good - ask the Dallas Cowboys. Peyton Manning's bullwinkle head continues to pop up on commercials, and everyone knows that the guy is one of the best the ever play the game - but part of the reason why he is so great is because of his tireless work ethic. Manning spends hours after practice and hours before the games working on timing with his receivers and forming a tremendous chemistry with them.

With his main target Marvin Harrison long gone, and the injury to Anthony Gonzalez last week, Manning has 1 guy (Reggie Wayne) that he has good chemistry with. With Addai's inability to run the ball against this lockdown Miami run defense that shutdown Michael Turner last week, Manning's offense will become one dimensional, and Dolphins pass rushers Jason Taylor and Joey Porter will pin their ears back and come flying after the QB. Manning's receivers don't have the chemistry with him, and expect him to hesitate that split second to see what adjustment his receivers end up making to their routes, which will lead to sacks and INTs.

Miami will grind it out on the ground, and mix in a few of their trick plays to generate enough offense to get it done.

The team that gives Indy the most problems each year is Jax, and Miami si a lot like Jax in the sense that they are physical and will grind it out.

Miami used to be one fo the NFLs most watched MNF teams. But since they gone into the tank the past few years, they havent gotten any appearances. Dolphins home opener is now a MNF home game, which they havent had in awhile, Expect the crowd to be electric as the Dolphins channel that energy and play with a lot of intensity tonight in a bounce back game after a sloppy performance against Atlanta.

Miami 23
Indy 21

 

[duckhunter]

thx, box, was surprised to not see the saints in your pr, as i am a big saints fan, lol. gl.