As I mentioned last week, I have had a losing year in the NFL posted on this site through weeks 4-9. Week 9 I stopped posting, and of course, went on a tear. I started posting again last week, and went 3-1, and posting a 7 team parlay for fun that went 6-1. The loss in regular games and the loss in the teaser was the same game: A Bad beat on the Carolina Panthers who lead all game, had them getting points, and the Giants tie it up late, get the 2 point conversion, send it to overtime, and then of course, they dont kick the FG, they punch it in for a TD to lose the parlay and the straight up bet. Still another great week last week, and figured I would share my plays again.
6* Kansas City Chiefs +3 -110
This is one of my stronger plays of the year, and I wish it wasn't on a team that has nothing to play for, but you look across the sideline and the other team, Cincy, has nothing to play for either. Both teams have shown signs of life this late in the season, Cincy winning 2 straight, and KC battling potential playoff teams San Diego and Miami to the final whistle, but coming up short.
KC has created tons of opportunities to play against them as Arrowhead Stadium has some of the most ridiculous built in lines you have ever seen. Any other home field has 2-3 points built into the line, but Arrowhead has like 5 points built into the line. That has resulted in the Chiefs having a horrendous ATS record at home. So when I play the Chiefs, I actually want to find a spot to play them on the road, and I like this one here.
Not too far of travel, and a lifeless, horrible Bengals squad. Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog - and they are usually road underdogs as I pointed out due to the Arrowhead theory.
Chiefs are desperate for a win, they keep coming close and falling just short. A lot of players have spoken about getting that win this week and ending strong, so we should see a strong effort from the Chiefs today.
Bengals two straight wins, combined with the Chiefs getting out of Arrowhead, has created a ton of line value in this game, and to give the Chiefs additional points in this match is obsurd. Wrong team favored.
It is the Bengals who need the handicap. It is the Bengals who have put together one of the worst offensive performances in the history of the NFL, hitting the 20 point BARRIER only 3 times this year and their highest point output was 23 points this season. That won't fair well vs. a Chiefs team that seems to score at will behind a very underrated QB Tyler Thigpen.
This SEEMS like the shitter bowl for QBs, but the only shitty QB in this game is Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tyler Thigpen has athletic ability, he makes NFL decisions and strong throws. He has a chance to be a future star in this league and with Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles, they provide balance on offense where the Chiefs can come out in different looks and ram it down your throat, or put Thigpen in the Pistol Shotgun look and throw all over you using ultra talented and strong WRs Dwayne Bowe, Bradley and rejuvenated Tony Gonzalez who is playing some of the best football in his career at this stage.
Chiefs defense leaves a lot ot be desired, but they have y uong nucleus, and Dorsey and Hali on the D-Line with a decent cornerback like Surtain should be plenty for Fitzpatrick to think about and it doesnt take much.
No Ocho Stinko today, who Ryan Fitzpatrick sucked the life out of his career. So TJ Housh will not be playing 2nd fiddle today, he will get keyed on and have to come out and perform as a #1 - something he isnt used to doing.
Bengals have just not been good as the favorite, not a position they like to be in. Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Meanwhile the Chiefs seem to feast on these types of teams after playing their difficult schedule this year, the Cheifs are not as bad as advertised. Chiefs are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Chiefs last 10 games have been loaded vs. potential playoff teams: MIA, SD, DEN, NO, SD, NYJ, TEN, TB, etc. They also played Oakland (win) and Buffalo (loss).
Bengals meanwhile, last 10 games have been vs: CLE, WAS, JAX, HOU, and then some playoff teams. Their last two wins came vs. a horrible Cleveland team, and a Washington team that found out they will miss the playoffs and was in disarray.
While the Chiefs seem to be in a similar predicament, these guys can SCORE. 20+ points in 5 of their last 6 games, and 30+ points in 2 of their last 6 games - something Cincy hasnt done all year.
Can Cincy win this game? Maybe. But to assume they can cover a point spread and to give the Chiefs additional points to what they will already be scoring vs. a Bengals team that cant score at all is insane.
Chiefs 27
Bengals 21
6* Kansas City Chiefs +3 -110
This is one of my stronger plays of the year, and I wish it wasn't on a team that has nothing to play for, but you look across the sideline and the other team, Cincy, has nothing to play for either. Both teams have shown signs of life this late in the season, Cincy winning 2 straight, and KC battling potential playoff teams San Diego and Miami to the final whistle, but coming up short.
KC has created tons of opportunities to play against them as Arrowhead Stadium has some of the most ridiculous built in lines you have ever seen. Any other home field has 2-3 points built into the line, but Arrowhead has like 5 points built into the line. That has resulted in the Chiefs having a horrendous ATS record at home. So when I play the Chiefs, I actually want to find a spot to play them on the road, and I like this one here.
Not too far of travel, and a lifeless, horrible Bengals squad. Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog - and they are usually road underdogs as I pointed out due to the Arrowhead theory.
Chiefs are desperate for a win, they keep coming close and falling just short. A lot of players have spoken about getting that win this week and ending strong, so we should see a strong effort from the Chiefs today.
Bengals two straight wins, combined with the Chiefs getting out of Arrowhead, has created a ton of line value in this game, and to give the Chiefs additional points in this match is obsurd. Wrong team favored.
It is the Bengals who need the handicap. It is the Bengals who have put together one of the worst offensive performances in the history of the NFL, hitting the 20 point BARRIER only 3 times this year and their highest point output was 23 points this season. That won't fair well vs. a Chiefs team that seems to score at will behind a very underrated QB Tyler Thigpen.
This SEEMS like the shitter bowl for QBs, but the only shitty QB in this game is Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tyler Thigpen has athletic ability, he makes NFL decisions and strong throws. He has a chance to be a future star in this league and with Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles, they provide balance on offense where the Chiefs can come out in different looks and ram it down your throat, or put Thigpen in the Pistol Shotgun look and throw all over you using ultra talented and strong WRs Dwayne Bowe, Bradley and rejuvenated Tony Gonzalez who is playing some of the best football in his career at this stage.
Chiefs defense leaves a lot ot be desired, but they have y uong nucleus, and Dorsey and Hali on the D-Line with a decent cornerback like Surtain should be plenty for Fitzpatrick to think about and it doesnt take much.
No Ocho Stinko today, who Ryan Fitzpatrick sucked the life out of his career. So TJ Housh will not be playing 2nd fiddle today, he will get keyed on and have to come out and perform as a #1 - something he isnt used to doing.
Bengals have just not been good as the favorite, not a position they like to be in. Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Meanwhile the Chiefs seem to feast on these types of teams after playing their difficult schedule this year, the Cheifs are not as bad as advertised. Chiefs are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Chiefs last 10 games have been loaded vs. potential playoff teams: MIA, SD, DEN, NO, SD, NYJ, TEN, TB, etc. They also played Oakland (win) and Buffalo (loss).
Bengals meanwhile, last 10 games have been vs: CLE, WAS, JAX, HOU, and then some playoff teams. Their last two wins came vs. a horrible Cleveland team, and a Washington team that found out they will miss the playoffs and was in disarray.
While the Chiefs seem to be in a similar predicament, these guys can SCORE. 20+ points in 5 of their last 6 games, and 30+ points in 2 of their last 6 games - something Cincy hasnt done all year.
Can Cincy win this game? Maybe. But to assume they can cover a point spread and to give the Chiefs additional points to what they will already be scoring vs. a Bengals team that cant score at all is insane.
Chiefs 27
Bengals 21
hno:
