Breakdown
North Carolina Tarheels @ Alabama Crimson Tide
NO PLAY for the series.
We will have action for single games after game 1.
Action Junkie LEAN: North Carolina
Cliff Notes:
You have a solid home team in Alabama, playing in a tough home environment, that has not lost a home series since week 1 against Winthrop. They swept through the tough SEC home schedule without losing a series behind the back of stud pitcher Wade LeBlanc. If anyone can "cancel out" UNCs 1st rounder Andrew Miller, it's LeBlanc. UNC dominates Alabama in just about every major statistical category on paper. But UNC has had road struggles, particularly with their pitching. These guys do not pitch the same on the road. Wait until they get to that Bama environment vs. LeBlanc.
Hitting: UNC
Pitching: Even
Fielding: UNC
Post Season Experience/Tradition: Alabama
Home Field Advantage: Alabama
______________________________________________________________
Statistically, this series is a complete mismatch in favor of UNC, and they are the dog. But, there are a few things to look at other than the stats. Obviously, when making a series play, you got to look at the pitching depth, and the rotation, how deep these pens go. A lot of teams only use 2 guys out of the pen, and after them it's a real crapshoot for consistent innings. Some schools like Rice, have such a luxury of rolling 3 or 4 studs out of the pen, on top of their solid starting rotation.
UNC (45-13)
Home: 38-4
Away: 10-7
Neutral: 0-2
(Playing 10-9 mediocre ball away from HOME!)
ACC: 22-8
#3 Winning % in the NCAA
#7 Pre-season
#8 RPI
#84 Strength of Schedule
Batting .317 as a team which is good for #27 in the NCAA, which is a very good ranking because year in and year out all of the smaller schools are usually at the top of these rankings due to poor pitching in the smaller conferences.
Ranked #19 in HRs/game
#6 in slugging %
#27 staff for K's/game
They dominate Bama in every major category.
Significant Wins
Lots of sweeps at home, but it's the road where NC struggles. Coincidentally, it's at home where Alabam excels.
Bama (41-19)
Home: 31-7
Away: 11-10
Neutral: 2-2
SEC: 20-10 (impressive, on average they won every single SEC series)
Unranked pre-season
#27 Strength of schedule playing in the SEC
#5 RPI
Ranked in the high 80's or 100's in damn near every important team statistical category.
Most importantly, some players of this Bama team I have seen a few times in person. Salem, their best hitter, is a nice little hitter, but not dominant. Valverde their catcher is okay. Paiml their middle infielder is an error machine. Bama can't hit. They struggle to score runs without clutch hitting, and they had a real easy road through their regional playing Troy a few times compared to a Stanford, Missouri, Miami, NC State, Arkansas, etc.
But NC's pitching may help them. These guys struggle on the road with walks, and cockshot fastballs.
Match-up
This whole series, as most other series, comes down to Friday Nights game. Whoever can take game 1 has a huge advantage of just needing a split over the next 2 games. Most likely Friday Pitching Matchup:
Friday: Andrew Miller vs. Wade LeBlanc
If there was ever a pitcher to "cancel out" and match-up against North Carolina's 1st round stud, it's Wade LeBlanc. We know about Andrew Miller, 6'6" lefty, mid 90's, top MLB Draft pick.
But let me introduce you to Wade LeBlanc. This guy has been dominating the SEC for a few years now. National Freshman of the Year as a freshman. Left-handed stud, that is 89-91 with the fastball and a real nasty hook and changeup. He throws all of these pitches for strikes, while Miller's offspeed pitches are considered works in progress. LeBlanc is undefeated this year. Miller struggles on the road, but not as much as the rest of the North Carolina starters. And if they are struggling on the road, Alabama is a TOUGH, TOUGH place to play, evidenced by their home record.
So, Friday's game is really a toss-up between these 2 studs. I'm confident LeBlanc will pitch to form at home, but I'm not so sure about Miller on the road. (Road has much more of effect in college than MLB).
UNC road:
Lost 2 of 3 at Georgia Tech (Miller shutout Tech at Tech to give NC their only win)
Won 2 of 3 at Miami. (Miami is not the typical Miami team from years past, they are very young).
Lost 2 of 3 at Virginia
NC's rotation:
Miller (1st rounder, complete package)
Woodard (nice middle starter, nothing special)
Bard (1st rounder, more so because of his talent and projectability, how else do you explain him being their Sunday starter)
Bard on the road:
at Virginia 3.2 IP 5 hits, 3 ER
at Miami 4.2 IP 8 hits, 6 runs
at GA Tech 3.2 IP 6 BBs (lost 11-1)
home vs. FSU 3.2 IP 3 hits, knocked out early again
Miller and Woodard also had their moments of struggling on the road.
Alabama is one of the toughest road environments you will face as a college player.
Alabama has a much greater tradition of being a powerhouse and post-season team than NC! Even last year with Miller, Bard and co., NC failed to even reach the regional finals in Gainesville (on the road). Beat Notre Dame, Lost to Florida, then lost to Notre Dame.
Alabama has not lost a home series since week 1 when they lost of 2 of 3 to Winthrop. The same Winthrop team that UNC disposed of in the regionals.
At Alabama
2 of 3 from Florida.
2 of 3 from Auburn
Swept Vanderbilt
Swept Ole Miss
2 of 3 from Miss State
Swept Florida International
Lost 2 of 3 to Winthrop week 1 in February.
North Carolina Tarheels @ Alabama Crimson Tide
NO PLAY for the series.
We will have action for single games after game 1.
Action Junkie LEAN: North Carolina
Cliff Notes:
You have a solid home team in Alabama, playing in a tough home environment, that has not lost a home series since week 1 against Winthrop. They swept through the tough SEC home schedule without losing a series behind the back of stud pitcher Wade LeBlanc. If anyone can "cancel out" UNCs 1st rounder Andrew Miller, it's LeBlanc. UNC dominates Alabama in just about every major statistical category on paper. But UNC has had road struggles, particularly with their pitching. These guys do not pitch the same on the road. Wait until they get to that Bama environment vs. LeBlanc.
Hitting: UNC
Pitching: Even
Fielding: UNC
Post Season Experience/Tradition: Alabama
Home Field Advantage: Alabama
______________________________________________________________
Statistically, this series is a complete mismatch in favor of UNC, and they are the dog. But, there are a few things to look at other than the stats. Obviously, when making a series play, you got to look at the pitching depth, and the rotation, how deep these pens go. A lot of teams only use 2 guys out of the pen, and after them it's a real crapshoot for consistent innings. Some schools like Rice, have such a luxury of rolling 3 or 4 studs out of the pen, on top of their solid starting rotation.
UNC (45-13)
Home: 38-4
Away: 10-7
Neutral: 0-2
(Playing 10-9 mediocre ball away from HOME!)
ACC: 22-8
#3 Winning % in the NCAA
#7 Pre-season
#8 RPI
#84 Strength of Schedule
Batting .317 as a team which is good for #27 in the NCAA, which is a very good ranking because year in and year out all of the smaller schools are usually at the top of these rankings due to poor pitching in the smaller conferences.
Ranked #19 in HRs/game
#6 in slugging %
#27 staff for K's/game
They dominate Bama in every major category.
Significant Wins
Lots of sweeps at home, but it's the road where NC struggles. Coincidentally, it's at home where Alabam excels.
Bama (41-19)
Home: 31-7
Away: 11-10
Neutral: 2-2
SEC: 20-10 (impressive, on average they won every single SEC series)
Unranked pre-season
#27 Strength of schedule playing in the SEC
#5 RPI
Ranked in the high 80's or 100's in damn near every important team statistical category.
Most importantly, some players of this Bama team I have seen a few times in person. Salem, their best hitter, is a nice little hitter, but not dominant. Valverde their catcher is okay. Paiml their middle infielder is an error machine. Bama can't hit. They struggle to score runs without clutch hitting, and they had a real easy road through their regional playing Troy a few times compared to a Stanford, Missouri, Miami, NC State, Arkansas, etc.
But NC's pitching may help them. These guys struggle on the road with walks, and cockshot fastballs.
Match-up
This whole series, as most other series, comes down to Friday Nights game. Whoever can take game 1 has a huge advantage of just needing a split over the next 2 games. Most likely Friday Pitching Matchup:
Friday: Andrew Miller vs. Wade LeBlanc
If there was ever a pitcher to "cancel out" and match-up against North Carolina's 1st round stud, it's Wade LeBlanc. We know about Andrew Miller, 6'6" lefty, mid 90's, top MLB Draft pick.
But let me introduce you to Wade LeBlanc. This guy has been dominating the SEC for a few years now. National Freshman of the Year as a freshman. Left-handed stud, that is 89-91 with the fastball and a real nasty hook and changeup. He throws all of these pitches for strikes, while Miller's offspeed pitches are considered works in progress. LeBlanc is undefeated this year. Miller struggles on the road, but not as much as the rest of the North Carolina starters. And if they are struggling on the road, Alabama is a TOUGH, TOUGH place to play, evidenced by their home record.
So, Friday's game is really a toss-up between these 2 studs. I'm confident LeBlanc will pitch to form at home, but I'm not so sure about Miller on the road. (Road has much more of effect in college than MLB).
UNC road:
Lost 2 of 3 at Georgia Tech (Miller shutout Tech at Tech to give NC their only win)
Won 2 of 3 at Miami. (Miami is not the typical Miami team from years past, they are very young).
Lost 2 of 3 at Virginia
NC's rotation:
Miller (1st rounder, complete package)
Woodard (nice middle starter, nothing special)
Bard (1st rounder, more so because of his talent and projectability, how else do you explain him being their Sunday starter)
Bard on the road:
at Virginia 3.2 IP 5 hits, 3 ER
at Miami 4.2 IP 8 hits, 6 runs
at GA Tech 3.2 IP 6 BBs (lost 11-1)
home vs. FSU 3.2 IP 3 hits, knocked out early again
Miller and Woodard also had their moments of struggling on the road.
Alabama is one of the toughest road environments you will face as a college player.
Alabama has a much greater tradition of being a powerhouse and post-season team than NC! Even last year with Miller, Bard and co., NC failed to even reach the regional finals in Gainesville (on the road). Beat Notre Dame, Lost to Florida, then lost to Notre Dame.
Alabama has not lost a home series since week 1 when they lost of 2 of 3 to Winthrop. The same Winthrop team that UNC disposed of in the regionals.
At Alabama
2 of 3 from Florida.
2 of 3 from Auburn
Swept Vanderbilt
Swept Ole Miss
2 of 3 from Miss State
Swept Florida International
Lost 2 of 3 to Winthrop week 1 in February.
