Boxslayer's NBA Monday Play

[Boxslayer]

8-3, +13.65 units, 73%

2.5* Denver Nuggets -4.5 -110

Denver in a must-win situation at home. Kobe so fatigued last game he couldn't even stand up to do his post game interview. Nuggets 6-0 ATS last 6 games after a straight up loss AND 7-1 ATS last 8 as a home favorite.

Lakers 0-4 ATS last 4 games following a straight up win.

One team (Denver) bounces back, one team can't stay consistent (LA).

Tight game last game and that was with Melo disappearing 2nd half, Kobe going for 40+ AND Chanucey not playing like his usual self.

Lakers had a hard time staying consistent even against a Yao-less Rockets team. They looked like world-beaters one game, and couldn't do it again the next game and the Rockets would blow them out at home.

Nuggets only 8 losses at home this year. Meanwhile 15 of Lakers 22 losses have come on the road.

In short, Melo goes off tonight, Kobe goes for 28, Chancey plays better ball, crowd should be wild, Nuggets bounce back and head back to LA with a 2-2 series.

Nuggets 106
Lakers 98

 

[dave11486]

Thats a good play Box, GL.

 

[VenomousSanction]

GL Box.. wit u BS

 

[ThePig+]

Can't count on them to cover that kind of number especially considering how tight this series has been. If Den does win tonight I see the Lakers missing a chance to tie it at the buzzer or similar situation. If this was the Jazz team of last year -4.5 at home maybe....not the Nuggets of this year....bad bet.

 

[DChosta]

Can't count on them to cover that kind of number especially considering how tight this series has been. If Den does win tonight I see the Lakers missing a chance to tie it at the buzzer or similar situation. If this was the Jazz team of last year -4.5 at home maybe....not the Nuggets of this year....bad bet.

Couldn't have said it better myself, don't feel comfortable betting the game w/ home favorites playing 1-5 ATS and it seems like most of the forum is riding on them tonite as well.. Just gonna stick with my props and enjoy the game. :toast:

 

[fugazi]

Boxslayer is the man and he knows how to find the angles, one of the few cappers out there who was on Orlando last night. Unfortunately I do agree with you guys in that I'm betting Lakers tonight. I just don't see it, Lakers want to close this shit out and a win here tonight will guarantee that. I don't think the Lakers are taking Denver lightly like they did Houston, they know how good Denver is and Denver is bringing out the best in the Lakers. Denver might win but I think it will be close if they do.

 

[Boxslayer]

I think Denver scores early and often here tonight and wins relatively comfortably.

Denver averaging 108 PPG at home and 109 in their last 5 games.

Nobody I trust more in these playoffs than Chauncey Billups. He's the best player on the floor in games like this.

1st 2 games were tight because they were in LA. 3rd game was tight because it was a pivotal game 3. Denver has too many advantages tonight: must win, home crowd, etc etc etc. La has nothing to lose tonight. They are up 2-1 and have home court. Denver needs this one BAD.

Good luck

 

[DChosta]

Haha, well I teased the Lakers and over so hopefully both of us can hit this tonite Boxman!

Also laid props on:
+ (-130) for Denver to hit 10 pts. first for , hopefully they come out strong in the first like you were saying

+ Total Rebounds by Lamar Odom UNDER 9 ML -115

+ Total Points by Nene OVER 12½ ML -125

Takin' it easy on a Monday, BOL.

 

[cashflowmatters]

Nice job Box, stay hot!

 

[Bennyshoe]

you were right on again

 

[DChosta]

shucks, looks like I was on the side for the night, congrats on another steady winner Box.. luckily, got all 3 of my props in for the night so I'm a happy man.

 

[ate00ate]

8-3, +13.65 units, 73%

2.5* denver nuggets -4.5 -110

denver in a must-win situation at home. Kobe so fatigued last game he couldn't even stand up to do his post game interview. Nuggets 6-0 ats last 6 games after a straight up loss and 7-1 ats last 8 as a home favorite.

Lakers 0-4 ats last 4 games following a straight up win.

One team (denver) bounces back, one team can't stay consistent (la).

Tight game last game and that was with melo disappearing 2nd half, kobe going for 40+ and chanucey not playing like his usual self.

Lakers had a hard time staying consistent even against a yao-less rockets team. They looked like world-beaters one game, and couldn't do it again the next game and the rockets would blow them out at home.

Nuggets only 8 losses at home this year. Meanwhile 15 of lakers 22 losses have come on the road.

In short, melo goes off tonight, kobe goes for 28, chancey plays better ball, crowd should be wild, nuggets bounce back and head back to la with a 2-2 series.

Nuggets 106
lakers 98

 

[Boxslayer]

Lakers big square play tonight. Obvious underdog.

Looking back at this game, I should have pushed harder. This one was pretty easy and had a lot of angles in line. Always has been in my nature though to cut back after a big win and not give it right back. Looking back on the angles this was a no brainer and I should have risked more. Live and learn.

Got an easy cover and didn't even need Melo.

Back tomorrow with a Magic/Cavs play.

Congrats to the winners.

 

[fugazi]

congrats on the winning play Box. I cashed on the over and flamed with the lakers. I really don't get Phil Jackson, I think he conceeded the game early in the 4th when he took Kobe out and had a lineup of Sasha, Walton, Farmar, Bynum, and Powell in there. Jackson's sub patterns are quite stupid at times. I don't understand why Sasha even plays at all anymore, the guy brings absolutely nothing to the game.