Boxslayer's MLB Wednesday (89-72, +42.56)

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UF. Champion U.
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89-72, +42.56
4-1, +6.50

Another "technical sweep" of the card yesterday as the RL play attached to my D-Backs ML was again a loser. 6 out of 7 winning days, rolling right now. On to today:

1* Colorado Rockies +125

The Cardinals have major problems right now. Their rotation is out of wack with injuries, their lineup is out of wack with injuries, Pujols can't seem to get it going, LaRussa was shitcanned at a red light in spring training, they can't seem to string together any sort of consistency. They finally had a nice game offensively and won yesterday, but as Dennis Green would say..."You wanna crown their ass, then crown them. We know who they are."

No letting them off the hook today, Denny. Cards are 1-7 after winning a baseball game, showing their lack of consistency and maintain that winning level of baseball. Meanwhile, the Rockies are 7-0 after losing a baseball game, showing their ability to focus up and bounceback.

They'll rely on Hirsh to bounceback today, who in his young career has been an outstanding day game pitcher, while Wainwright has been horrendous in day games. Right handed batters are batting a Tony Gwynn-like .350 off Wainwright, and he'll face a good one today in Matt Holliday, and an outstanding left-handed bat in Todd Helton, who just so happens to be on fire right now.

I think between those two guys, that will be all of the offense that the Rockies need. Pujols is cold, Eckstein is cold, and Edmonds is cold. Those three bats make this lineup go. For good measure, Preston Wilson is on the DL, and Juan Encarnacion is on the DL. So if they don't have Eckstein setting the table and they arent generating RBI's from Pujols and Edmonds, it is no secret why this team hasnt been able to score runs.

Basically, a hot hitting team vs. a cold hitting team with major issues and injuries. A good day time pitcher vs. a poor daytime pitcher....at a + price.

More later.
 

Rx Senior
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Just put colorado in about 5 minutes ago. Glad to see you on it with me.

Cards bats have not really woken up this season and I can't understand why Wainwright would possible be a -141 fav right now?!
 

UF. Champion U.
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3* NY Mets -150
1* NY Mets -1.5 +110

One of the rare times you'll see me lay -150, as I believe this is the highest juice I have laid this year. But I think this line is undervaluing the Mets John Maine, and overvaluing the name Matt Morris, who is past his prime facing a top lineup today. The Mets are baseball's best road team, and with a day off tomorrow, Randolph should have his full bullpen at his disposal with nothing to save for tomorrow, while the Mets have a road game tomorrow. So getaway day for both teams, but advantage Mets with nothing to plan for tomorrow.

Deja Vu for Matt Morris here as this same time last year, he started a decisive game 3 in San Francisco vs. this Mets team. Last time he faced Bannister for the Mets, in a 7-9 loss vs. the Mets. This time he'll face a much better starter in John Maine.

Maine has been dominant this season, and it will be tough for this Giants lineup, already void of key hitters and possibly Barry Bonds, to score runs on this guy. The Giants have never seen Maine before, and this will be a tough assignment for them.

Maine has been solid during day games, while Morris has been poor. Morris has also been shelled by the members of this current Mets lineup as they bat over .300 as a team against him.

Froemming is behind home plate today: 4 UNDERS out of 5 games umpired. Only 6 runs per game are scored when he is behind the dish. This game will be all about who can score runs. Two good pitchers, an under umpire: give me the Mets lineup and bullpen over the Giants lineup.
 
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GL today & for the season Box. I see you are doing great so far. I like both plays as well as they are the 2 games I've played so far today.
 

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Good Luck Box, love the Mets as well. I think Maine tosses another gem this afternoon.
 

UF. Champion U.
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3* Florida Marlins -130
1* Florida Marlins -1.5 +165

Again, the books have undervalued Dontrelle Willis, and I will ride him again as he has been nothing but good to me this year vs. one of the pitchers I love fading - particularly on the road - TOMKO. Tomko is the exact type of pitcher that this young Marlins lineup can hit well, and Tomko has struggled particularly on the road over his career with a major disparity in ERA. Dontrelle, as always, adds another bat to the Marlin lineup, and he energizes the crowd and always seems to put forth quality starts at home.

The Marlins are hot right now, particulalr Miguel Cabrera, and when he is going strong, the rest of these guys feed off him.

Perhaps the biggest reason why the Marlins are undervalued right now is because their bullpen, their biggest weakness, has finally started to take shape. They have found their closer, Henry Owens, a couple of setup guys mainly Taylor Tankersley, and these guys have been performing well thus far since placing Jorge Julio suspiciously on the DL after a few blown saves earlier in the year.
 

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Close game, love the error on the giants when they missed that pop up. Nice pick box good luck with marlins tonight.
 

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1* Pittsburgh Pirates +125

I rode Pitt last night, and I like them again here in this spot. Pitt snapped the Cubs 5 game winning streak last night with an extra inning win in which they frustrated the hell out of me be stranding base runners. They perservered, and I like the way they held on and battled last night to get the job done.

Tonight they send Tom Gorzelanny, born and raised in Chicago, to Wrigley to take on Jason Marquis. Both of these guys have pitched a little bit over their heads this season, but my money is on Gorzelanny here as the Cubs are a team that rakes average MLB right handed pitching, and they won't have that luxury today. Gorzelanny is 4-1 this season, all 4 wins coming on the road. Pitt just faced Marquis last week, and I like the fact that they will look to get to Marquis today after facing him a few days ago. Gorzelanny's last appearance vs. Chicago was in Wrigley as he made his initial home coming and dominated the Cubs in his hometown. He will look to do that again tonight.

Also love playing a team to drop two straight after their winning streak gets snapped. The public perception is always bounceback bounceback bounceback. But that is typically not the case when it comes to snapped winning streaks. Playing Pitt here again at + dollas.
 

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3* Florida Marlins -130
1* Florida Marlins -1.5 +165

Again, the books have undervalued Dontrelle Willis, and I will ride him again as he has been nothing but good to me this year vs. one of the pitchers I love fading - particularly on the road - TOMKO. Tomko is the exact type of pitcher that this young Marlins lineup can hit well, and Tomko has struggled particularly on the road over his career with a major disparity in ERA. Dontrelle, as always, adds another bat to the Marlin lineup, and he energizes the crowd and always seems to put forth quality starts at home.

The Marlins are hot right now, particulalr Miguel Cabrera, and when he is going strong, the rest of these guys feed off him.

Perhaps the biggest reason why the Marlins are undervalued right now is because their bullpen, their biggest weakness, has finally started to take shape. They have found their closer, Henry Owens, a couple of setup guys mainly Taylor Tankersley, and these guys have been performing well thus far since placing Jorge Julio suspiciously on the DL after a few blown saves earlier in the year.
Great run you are on Box man. Line also reflects Dodgers hitting Willis well in the past.
 

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2* Cincinatti Reds -140
1* Cincinatti Reds +140

Should be the last play of the night and another solid play, IMO.

Reds have consistently counted on Matt Belisle this year to put them back on track and he has delivered as the Reds are 4-1 when Belisle's starts after a Reds Loss. He will try to have them bounceback tonight, and they will face an ideal pitcher to do so.

Woody Williams is one of the more over-the-hill has-been pitchers in the league. He's 0-5 this season with a poor ERA. He is the exact type of pitcher that this left-handed Reds lineup feasts off of: right-handed pitchers that throw right over the top. In other words, always bet the Reds at home vs. an average MLB RHP. Reds are one of the best home teams in baseball slugging .448 with 25 HRs at home and .439 with 33 bombs vs. RHP's. Astros have had trouble closing out series' as they are 1-7 in game 3's so far.

Reds are 4-2 this season when Belisle starts, Belisle himself is 3-1, with a respectable ERA. He has been even better at night games, as his sole day game appaearance accounts for his lone loss and killed his ERA.

Marquez umpires tonight and he is 6-0 in favor of the home team, and 8-2 for the opponent when umpiring against Houston.
 

UF. Champion U.
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Great run you are on Box man. Line also reflects Dodgers hitting Willis well in the past.

On the surface the Dodgers have hit Willis well, but individual batting averages dictate otherwise. Willis has held these particular hitters to a .247 average overall.

Given up only 2 HR's in 146 ABs to this "lineup".
 

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