10-4, +11.86
Happy Easter to all. Thanks for all the kind words in the other days picks thread.
1* Florida Marlins -125
Battle between two 23 year olds here: Zack Segovia of Philly, and Scott Olsen of Florida. The difference here is experience. Olsen has it, while Segovia makes his 1st MLB Start.
Although Olsen's stats show him getting roughed up by Philly, I'm willing to discard some of that as one of his starts in Philly he got shelled and left out to dry during his rookie season. He faced Philly twice in the same week last season, at the end of his rookie season, when rookies' fatigue starts to set in. When you bet on young guys, you want to do it early in the season, as they don't have the experience or stamina of pacing themselves over the course of 162 games. As the season progresses and you get post all-star, you start to fade rookies.
I think Olsen is all grown up here, and he'll get to face the Phillies in a month other than September. Olsen will run it up mid-90's, he's off a nice solid opening day start, and now comees back to pitch at home vs. a Phillies team that Florida has had a lot of success against over the years. Another key thing here is Olsen, a left hander, has been extremely tough on left-handed hitters in his short career. Lefties bat just .199 against the lefthanded Olsen. Meanwhile, the two key bats in the Philly lineup - Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, are both left-handers. Howard is particularly struggling right now, and is pressing to try to get on a pace to match last year's performance and he is impatient and uncomfortable at the dish right now. As Ryan Howard goes, the Phillies go, and if he's not hitting - fade city. Howard, even when he's hot, is terrible against lefty pitchers. So, I really see a big hole in this lineup today for Philly that they can't afford as they start a rookie pitcher.
Zack Segovia makes his MLB debut, and not a good place to do it. Marlins home field at Dolphin Stadium is a very strange stadium for baseball. Very football-like, and it's tough as a rookie to make your opening start on the road vs. a very hot hitting team right now - in the rubberband game to decide the series. Marlins have been pounding righties this season so far (see Myers), and getting shut down by lefties (see Moyer). Marlins have scored at least 8 runs in all of their wins so far this season, and I will stick with the hot bats here vs. a first time pitcher.
Marlins 7
Phillies 3
Happy Easter to all. Thanks for all the kind words in the other days picks thread.
1* Florida Marlins -125
Battle between two 23 year olds here: Zack Segovia of Philly, and Scott Olsen of Florida. The difference here is experience. Olsen has it, while Segovia makes his 1st MLB Start.
Although Olsen's stats show him getting roughed up by Philly, I'm willing to discard some of that as one of his starts in Philly he got shelled and left out to dry during his rookie season. He faced Philly twice in the same week last season, at the end of his rookie season, when rookies' fatigue starts to set in. When you bet on young guys, you want to do it early in the season, as they don't have the experience or stamina of pacing themselves over the course of 162 games. As the season progresses and you get post all-star, you start to fade rookies.
I think Olsen is all grown up here, and he'll get to face the Phillies in a month other than September. Olsen will run it up mid-90's, he's off a nice solid opening day start, and now comees back to pitch at home vs. a Phillies team that Florida has had a lot of success against over the years. Another key thing here is Olsen, a left hander, has been extremely tough on left-handed hitters in his short career. Lefties bat just .199 against the lefthanded Olsen. Meanwhile, the two key bats in the Philly lineup - Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, are both left-handers. Howard is particularly struggling right now, and is pressing to try to get on a pace to match last year's performance and he is impatient and uncomfortable at the dish right now. As Ryan Howard goes, the Phillies go, and if he's not hitting - fade city. Howard, even when he's hot, is terrible against lefty pitchers. So, I really see a big hole in this lineup today for Philly that they can't afford as they start a rookie pitcher.
Zack Segovia makes his MLB debut, and not a good place to do it. Marlins home field at Dolphin Stadium is a very strange stadium for baseball. Very football-like, and it's tough as a rookie to make your opening start on the road vs. a very hot hitting team right now - in the rubberband game to decide the series. Marlins have been pounding righties this season so far (see Myers), and getting shut down by lefties (see Moyer). Marlins have scored at least 8 runs in all of their wins so far this season, and I will stick with the hot bats here vs. a first time pitcher.
Marlins 7
Phillies 3