3* Alabama Crimson Tide +7 -120
As I said from day 1, UGA is an overrated team. I am not convinced that because they beat a 4-loss FL team w/ an injured Tebow and thrased a poor Hawaii team in the BCS game that they automatically are the #1 team. They are a very good team, they are probably a top 5 or 6 team, but they are not a consensus #1, they are definitely not some unstoppable force, and they have never been able to deal well with the bullseye on their back. This is a very dangerous spot for the Bulldogs.
The public pick is for the Bulldogs to lose the high profile games like the Florida game or the LSU game and people think that is where the Bulldogs will get tripped up. While that may or may not happen, I am a believer that THESE are the types of games that make or break your season. When you are playing the teams that you are probably supposed to beat, but they are an upstart team and a win vs. a UGA w/ a top ranking can do big things for their program. I know UGA can bring their 'A' game vs. LSU and FL. But can you bring your 'A' game week in and week out and not get tripped up by a team like this is part of the challenge of playing in the SEC and it is these types of games that the Georgia's of the conference lose.
In the past 6 games in this series, the result in 5 of those 6 games has either been an Alabama outright victory or a UGA win by 3 points or less, including a 3-point UGA win last year in Saban's first year at the helm. Saban also didnt lose any games last year by more than 7 points.
Georgia tries to play a physical game. They want to win with the running game, they want to win with defense. That's what Alabama wants to do as well and I see a typical SEC slugfest and I'll give the nod in tese NFL-type battles to the more motivated team, with the NFL-coach and I'll grab any points I can get - in this case a TD.
Knowshown Moreno will be going up against a very physical D-line for Bama, with a big 365 pound NFL looking DT whose job will be to force Moreno out of the middle of the field, and towards the sideline where Bamas team defense can swarm to the football. Bama held Clemson's two headed RB Davis and Spiller to ZERO net rushing yards. ZERO. Not 35 rushing yards....ZERO. Bama's #8 rush defense is exactly what you need to stop Georgia and force Matthew Stafford to throw the football, who has never had a 300 yard passing game and threw 2INTs vs. this Bama team last year.
Georgia is 2-6 ATS when Stafford attempts 25+ passes, and 0-4 ATS when Stafford attempts 30+ passes. (Including 2 outright losses, and a 3 point win over Vandy). Bama's defense will force Stafford tot hrow the ball and if he has to attempt 25-30 passes in this game, which is very realistic, I dont think the result will be a good one for UGA. I also dont like that UGA is returning from a west coast trip.
Bama has the #14 rush offense in the country and they play smart football, and that has led to the #18 turnover margin in college football, which is a great recipe to win on the road in this game.
John Parker Wilson has had an inconsistent career, and always has a game every now and then where he can lose a game for you, but we havent seen that yet this year. He has made good decision, he has had safe passes, he has become a leader of this team, and Alabama's physical, NFL-line is partly responsible for that.
Right now, Alabama needs this game in a big way for their program, and I will give the coaching nod to Nick Saban here in a big way.
The tough SEC West teams have always faired well vs. the SEC East teams and I think this game is no exception.
When Bama is hot you have to bet them. Crimson Tide are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game and they are 4-1ATS in their last 5 games. They also play well on the road in these types of games as evidenced by their 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
If UGA was slowed by SC's defense, they will be slowed by Alabams's defense.
Alabama 24
Georgia 19
