4* Virginia Tech Hokies +3 -116
If you stay patient with this game, you can probably get this thing to 3.5 and maybe even 4 by weeks end as the public should hammer Miami.
Let me tell you about my good friend: Chuck. Chuck loves betting college football. After he comes home from work, he sits in front of his TV and watches the big FSU/Miami rivalry while his wife watches Real Houswives of Gainesville and dreams about getting banged by Tim Tebow in an orphanage in Figi. Chuck watches the Hurricanes win an emotional game, he loves their swagger and he remembers Ray Lewis, Michael Irvin, and all of the UM glory days. Chuck isn't sure if Miami is for real or not. So next week rolls around, he comes home from work again, his wife goes and watches Legend of the Circle of Ya Ya Pants, and Chuck goes back and watches another national TV game with the Hurricanes. They look pretty darn impressive at home beating up on a one dimensional, predictable Georgia Tech team emotionally spent from their back and forth game with Clemson. Now Chuck has seen Miami twice, both times on National TV, both times by himself on a weekday night in his living room, both times they look good. Now when Chuck goes to the office the next day, and the office pool goes around asking for who is going to win the National Title....Chuck thinks he's got a little secret in Miami and lays it on them. After all, if they are his little national title secret, then they should be able to handle a Virginia Tech team that struggled to beat Nebraska, right? "These Canes are for real," he screams because Jesse Palmer told him to.
Chuck is everyone. About 5 million strong that tune in to watch week night college football. The Hurricanes are no longer a secret: they are arguably the most public team in the country right now. And with that reputation, comes inflated lines, inflated heads, and a deflated wallet.
See, Chuck likes being ahead of the curve. Chuck likes to think he is sharp. And he thinks he is doing so by picking UM to win the national title. After all, they are Chuck's little secret.
Not so fast my friends...
I wasn't able to get the cover out of Va Tech last week (although they did win), but I like them in this spot again.
We are a mere two games into the season, and Miami is being crowned National Championship contenders, "they are back", "Jacory for Heisman", and the hype goes on.
When did beating 2 middle of the road ACC teams mean that a team is all that? Only because they were on National TV is the hype this thick, because if Miami won two 12 noon Saturday games, the hype wouldn't be this thick. Hell, if FSUs WR catches that ball in the end zone, is anyone even talking about Miami right now? No. They'd be 1-1 with a home win over Georgia Tech.
So, first things first:
I love betting teams off emotional home victories that now travel on the road. We've got that.
Although Miami beat FSU in Tallahassee, they haven't left the state of Florida yet. Now they get on a plane and head up to Lane Stadium one of the toughest places to play in college.
Miami and Virginia Tech are bitter rivals, Va Tech came over from the Big East with Miami, and it used to be if Miami beat Va Tech they were in the National Title every year. This isnt' just some ACC game.... this will be a war. And in a game that figures to be a war, give me the physical team home team (Virginia Tech), who stood toe to toe with arguably the most physical team in the country (Alabama) in SEC Country at the Georgia dome. Then took Nebraska's best punch, and won a sloppy slugfest against them. Some people were worried about Va Tech's lack of offense vs Nebraska, but the Hokies are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
See, every time I think of UM right now, I think of Jacory Harris standing with his shirt clean in the pocket, standing tall, and throwing a nice easy lob pass downfield. I have that other vision of Jacory actually getting hit, the ball floating up in the air, and FSU taking it to the house. I can't get these images out of my head. It has been too easy for Miami with FSUs defensive backs looking like statues, and the Ga Tech pass rush being non existent. So I said to myself that I'm going to wait until Miami plays a real deal defense in a good spot before I fade them, and this is it.
Virginia Tech has a real deal defense, a pressure filled, turnover forcing, Beamer Ball defense, playing at home with a home crowd that will be nothing short of fired up. And they are GETTING POINTS.
Miami had a hard fought emotional track meet vs FSU who had a swiss cheese defense, and then an emotional home victory that they used the home crowd adrenaline to blow past a one dimensional emotionally spent Georgia Tech team. How much does this young team have left in the tank? Does this young team have the maturity to handle the hype and realize that this game coming up will be their toughest game to date?
Miami has struggled with mobile QBs. Ponder ran wild on them last year, and in an effort to defend Ponder's running, Ponder threw for almost 300 on them this year. Tyrod Taylor offers a similar threat, and takes UM out of the defense that they like to play. Miami's corners DeMarcus Van Dyke and Jo Jo Nicolas are questionable for this game, and are beat up. Ojomo is still out with the jaw injury. Va Tech comes into this game pretty healthy overall.
Virginia Tech has beaten Miami straight up at Lane Stadium 2 of the past 3 meetings there by a combined total of over 50 points each victory. Last year in Miami, Miami won a 16-14 game. The past 3 meetings/years between these teams, Miami would not have covered a 3 point spread, losing outright twice and winning by 2 points last year.
And as different as this Miami team seems, this SPOT for them is also very different off of 2 very difficult emotional games. You saw Miami had difficulty closing out Georgia Tech and struggled as they got to the 4th quarter to put them away.
Dating back to last year, Virginia Tech has quietly won 6 of their last 7 games overall, their only loss coming to Alabama earlier this year.
Miami, mind you, has not been a good road team under Randy Shannon. Until the miracle win in Tallahassee, they had lost 3 straight outright away from home and 4 of 7 road games last year. The year before under Shannon, they lost 4 of their 5 road games outright. So under Randy Shannon they have lost 8 of 12 road games outright, and if that FSU WR catches the ball in the end zone in week 1, it's 9 of 12 outright.
Hurricanes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.
And even better.....
Hokies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Hokies are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
You think Lane Stadium won't play any factor in this game? The Hokies love being the underdogs and they may not have a more hated rival on their schedule than Miami. So this isn't just some ACC game like as if Miami going to play Virginia or Duke, or Georgia Tech, or Clemson. Va Tech is a deep rival and they circle this game on their calendar every year.
Expect Jacory Harris and Miami to look human and out of their element at Va Tech as Va Techs crowd, intesity, defense and special teams pave the way to victory vs. a confused, shell shocked Miami team.
Virginia Tech 26
Miami 20
