Boxslayer's CFB Week 14 (55-37, +21.40 units, 60%)

[Boxslayer]

2008 Overall: 55-37, +21.40 units, 60%
2007 Overall: 60-42, +45.45 units, 59%
2006 Overall: 65-36, +45.49 units, 64%
3-Year Total: 180-115, +112.24 units, 61%
Last Week: 6-3, +0.95 units
Last Night: 0-1, -2.20 units

1* UTEP Miners +6.5 -110

East Carolina has been in a regression all season since their big upset wins early in the year. Meanwhile, UTEP has had a little surge, winning 2 of their past 3 and a win today could mean bowl eligibility for El Paso.

In a game like this, the public looks at the board, and looks at a game like this and they know who East Carolina is, they know they have won some big games early in the season, they haven't heard much about UTEP, and so they bet East Carolina to the beat of 65%+ of the public.

UTEP and East Carolina are very even in my numbers, and I have this game at a PK. UTEP QB Trevor Vittatoe completes 60% of his passes at a 31/6 TD/INT clip. I like UTEP's QB play, ability to move the football efficiently, getting 6 points in a bowl eligibility spot, vs. an overrated, overhyped team that had early season success and not much has gone right since. They have lost one of their top LBs for the season, they have had to suspend their WR last week, they had issues with police brutality after a football game and were fined $10K by Conf USA, and they haven't eclipsed the 20 point mark in 4 games.

UTEP 21
East Carolina 20

 

[Boxslayer]

2* Colorado Buffaloes +18 -110

Colorado comes into this game limping a bit but again I am going to take the team going for bowl eligibility vs. a team that really doesnt have much business laying this many points.

Colorado's offense has sputtered at times this season, but they have scored a bit more their past 3 games, and showing some signs of heating back up again. I think this putrid Nebraska defense is just what the Dr. ordered as the Huskers have given up over 40PPG their last 3 games.

Colorado has owned Nebraska ATS recently, and has owned them even more so in Lincoln.

Pretty good little rivalry brewing here, give me the 18 points.

Nebraska 31
Colorado 21

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

thanks box

 

[sdf]

hm, have Nebraska -16.5 and think i have to stick with it. I think the NU defense will come to play and teams that really need a win to go bowling tend to be bad bets. As well, CU offense has been poor and only put up a few more points than usual because they played really really horrible defenses (TAMU and IowaSt).

I think NU is worthy of laying this many. They beat Baylor by 12 and Baylor is clearly better than CU. They beat KSt by 28 and KU by 10.

CU is a team that can get blown out and Nebraska defense may want to prove they earned the blackshirts that were finally given.

GL today Box and thanks for the picks

 

[Boxslayer]

and teams that really need a win to go bowling tend to be bad bets.

No, historical data shows otherwise.

and Baylor game has nothing to do with this game.

 

[runandhide21]

Box happy belated thanksgiving! Got any ideas for the LSU arkansas game today? Feels like LSU shouldn't be laying this many...

 

[Boxslayer]

happy thanksgiving!

the tigers are very very very very very average. but they've been one of the best road teams in the SEC under Les Miles. My line is LSU -6, so Im staying clear of this play.

I was on Ark last week to show they are better than what their record indicates, but not sure I can do it here.

Lean to LSU

GL

 

[Geaux-tigers]

Be careful. LSU has a good rush offense, and that's Arkansas' weakness. Unlike OM last week that can stop the run, this is not such a bad matchup for LSU. No matter the QB, they can probably run at will and keep that defense off the field.

I don't see how you could lay points with LSU on the road with a QB making his first start and with their pass defense, but I don't see a ton of value on Arkansas either given the matchup.

 

[LSUpete]

Arkansas will also be without their best RB today. That will force them into a predominantly aerial attack .....which will create turnovers and good field position for LSU. The Tiger's defense is such a disappointment that it sures seems as thought he Hogs can get 14 points here, but LSU's rushing game should really wear down the Hogs. I am taking the Tigers for the game and especially the second half.

 

[Geaux-tigers]

LSU's defense has not created turnovers against even the worst offenses. I see it as no certainty that they will against this team despite Arkansas' tendency to do so.

I agree that LSU is the side if you were forced to play it because of the matchup of Ark's defense and LSUs rush offense, and good road performance, don't see it as a great play personally.

 

[huSkerRips]

actually

No, historical data shows otherwise.

and Baylor game has nothing to do with this game.

actually, NU in 04 and 07 kind of debunk your theory on that one. I think NU comes out fired up on senior day and covers. Colorado is just too banged up, IMO.
:toast:

what is your thoughts on florida?? me likey..

 

[Illini]

actually, NU in 04 and 07 kind of debunk your theory on that one. I think NU comes out fired up on senior day and covers. Colorado is just too banged up, IMO.
:toast:

what is your thoughts on florida?? me likey..

How do 2 games debunk anything?

 

[Boxslayer]

actually, NU in 04 and 07 kind of debunk your theory on that one. I think NU comes out fired up on senior day and covers. Colorado is just too banged up, IMO.
:toast:

what is your thoughts on florida?? me likey..

come on dude. i can find a million games that debunk the theory, and i can find 2 million that support, it. thats what gambling is all about.

 

[Boxslayer]

Buffs and UTEP small plays, will have bigger plays for tomorrow. Dont like the card today.

 

[huSkerRips]

come on dude. i can find a million games that debunk the theory, and i can find 2 million that support, it. thats what gambling is all about.

oh no i agree... u just made it one of your reasons for picking colorado and i was just referring to the fact that it hasn't generally held true, lately, in this series... and since u always give out such good info, i thought it wouldnt hurt for me to share what i thought might be good info for ya..

any thoughts on florida you wish to share??

 

[Boxslayer]

oh no i agree... u just made it one of your reasons for picking colorado and i was just referring to the fact that it hasn't generally held true, lately, in this series... and since u always give out such good info, i thought it wouldnt hurt for me to share what i thought might be good info for ya..

any thoughts on florida you wish to share??

i see.

Florida thoughts:

I keep thinking they cant keep covering these monstrous spreads, yet they seem to keep doing it.

Starters played a quarter last week, 3 the week before, etc.

This team is VERY fresh right now. They are hitting hard on defense and they are flying to the ball. Their offense is what it is...legit.

They are shredding through one of the premiere conferences in football like a hot knife through butter.

They are focused and as much as it seems like everyone is dismissing the Noles, Bama, etc and making their path to the title game very rosey.....i dont think that is the sentiment in the lockerroom.

Meyer has a sick record vs. his rivals. He keeps the boosters happy by not only winning, but covering against them. This was not anymore painfully obvious in the Miami game earlier this year.

FSU is just not good enough, not experienced enough, etc to win this game, and in order to cover they are going to have to play the game of their lives. That's not going to happen bc Meyer is too good against his rivals, this isnt some sandwich game, too much on the line for FL and Florida is too well rested.

Football-wise, it's a bad matchup for FSU. They arent very good at defending the spread.

Right now, I lean to FL.

 

[Willye]

was looking for this thread gl bud, and you no i gotta ask any updates to the the rankings greatly appreciate it bud

 

[Boxslayer]

willye i will update the rankings next week, i promise. i takes about 2-3 hours to make sure everything calculated right and i dont have the time with it being the holidays and family in town.

gl!

 

[Willye]

no problem bud thanx been going off of the ones from week, 12 and they've been pretty accurate was wondering if anything changed come bowl time thnx for the hard work bud and as always gl this weekend

 

[Boxslayer]

like i mentioned in Pm, at this time of the year a couple weeks wont effect it drastically. however, they do need to be updated again next week.