Jerry dont take this post personally. I'm going to give this an effort to show you what I am trying to say. This is the long post I was trying to avoid making, but clearly you arent understanding.
I am very well aware what my writeup said on the game. I don't need it copied and pasted. I am not bitter in the least bit. My eyes do not need to be opened. I am not talking about Minnesota or Michigan. I am talking about handicapping principles. It has nothing to do with being stubborn from the game. I have lost a million 5* plays before.
I am talking about the manner in which you handicap your games. I have a certain procedure that I go through, and a method for determining how many units (*) I put on games. I put myself in high percentage situations. I am very successful at this because I pick my games based on a certain criteria, and that criteria doesn't steer me wrong. I don't stray from how I do things. And if you find an approach you like, you shouldn't either.
You are trying to make this out to be a Minnesota vs. Michigan thing and get into some kind of discussion about the teams and why Minnesota was the wrong side. I get it. You think that I need to adjust after the clear loss. I get it. I am trying to say Minnesota is the right side because it fell into every concept I use to handicap games. I dont give a rats ass what happened on the field. I didnt even watch the game. I dont care if Michigan won 100-0, and Minnesota ddnt gain a yard. I dont care if Minnesota looked so horrible, that they get their D1 ranking stripped from them. My point is not about talent, matchups, trends, and value.
My point is simply to say how Vegas continues to make money. My main point, is one bad weekend, or two bad weekends can put so much cloud of doubt in many peoples minds that they start to adjust their views on a team, how they do things, they start flip flopping, they start changing, they start looking at some stupid short term trend they noticed to make their decisions, they start looking at too much information, they start pressing, they start thinking a team is better or worse than what they really are, they have knee jerk reactions to blowout losses especially...etc.
People that have been successful doing things for a long time, can even question how they came to a certain play or plays. Once that doubt enters your mind about how you are going about things.... you are done. You dont know which way is sharp, and which is square, what is the winning side or losing side. You might as well flip a coin.
Minnesota was the right side in that game. NOT BECAUSE they should have won. Not because I took a bad beat. Not because they were the better team. Not because they caught a bad break. Not because of refereeing. Not because of a fix. Not because of any of that.
But because I have hit 62% over 3 years using a certain set of handicapping principles, a certain set of criteria to identify games and then determine how much to play them for. When a lot of things fall in the line, the play becomes a 3* or more, and when just about everything that I use to cap a game falls in line it becomes a 5* play or more. On those types of plays, I hit at an outstanding rate. Keyword rate. Everything can lose, and can look really bad doing so in the process. I get it. Minnesota got dominated. Michigan was easily the better team on Saturday.
Minnesota got dominated by Michigan. DOMINATED. No excuses. But I am of firm belief that if you play a game 10 times, the underdog will always blow the favorite out one of those games when the spread is within 10 points or less especially.
Every game is a set of random events.
You think my eyes need to be opened because Minnesota got dominated whistle to whistle and I still think I was on the right side. What is this guy thinking? I get it.
My point is, it is my firm belief that you are wrong. It's not bitterness. Its consistency.
When I start hitting 52%, I'll start reevaluating the way I cap games and make adjustments.
But my exact point of writing what I wrote last week, and now continuing to write what I am writing now, is for the guys out there just like you. You want to take one loss, one week, one bad game, and reevaluate your view on a team. Or your way of capping the game. Or your decision to make the play. Or open someone's eyes.
That is WRONG. THAT is why Vegas wins. And that was my entire point to writing what I wrote.
Every single play I made last week was the right side. Actually there was one play, Duke, that was capped incorrectly. Every single play I have made this year was the right side except for a couple. Most of my losses were the right side. Not because they should have covered, or I took a bad beat. But because I capped them the way I always have and everything fell in line the way things always have over my last 300 plays at 62%.
I dont just look at the card and start picking games that standout to me. That is like throwing darts. I dont just think about teams strengths and weaknesses. There is an approach to every single game that I take that is very consistent.
I understand. You think I'm nuts. You think I was clearly on the wrong side on most of my losses. You think I'm being stubborn. I get it.
Now let's see if you get what I'm saying....
In the world of college football....1 loss can change a season for a team. It can send you from National Title game to the Outback Bowl. And college football more so than any other sport, has the most over-reactive bettors than any other sport. College football bettors get caught up in losses more than anyone. It's the only sport where a team can lose one game and everyone starts calling them a fraud. Can you believe that? 1 freaking game and the team is a fraud? Laughable.
People think Penn State sucks right now. Fraud. People thought Florida was a fraud when they lost to Ole Miss. Now people can't get off their nuts.
That's not how you bet, and that's not the kind of mindset that wins.
Don't get me wrong, I always look at a loss and see what I could have done to cap it better. I always learn from the losses.
But I don't stray from what I do. The Minnesota game was handled and capped with the same approach that I have done for every single game. It wasn't a 5* because I just felt like putting 5 units on it or I felt really good about it. The approach dictated it was a 5*.
The approach has hit 62% over 300 plays. It was the correct way to cap it, it was the correct side. I'll play it again just like I did tomorrow.
I am not going to alter the way I have capped 62% winners over 300 plays because Minnesota got blown out. I am not going to start messing with the numbers on my excel sheet and drop their ass and move Michigan up. I am not going to change my approach because of the game or the weekend.
Because THAT is why Vegas wins. You can't keep overreacting, adjusting, and completely change your thoughts on teams week to week and change the way you cap.
