Vandy always has all of the motivation so I lean to that being more moot than useful.
You could be right, but I would have expected a let down against UK. UK's defense is as good or better than Vandy's and both are pathetic on offense.
ATS after rivalry games?
In 05 after losing to LSU UF beat UGA then beat Vandy in that OT game.
In 06 UF lost to Auburn , then beat UGA and Vandy
In 07, beat LSU, lost to UGA, beat Vandy.
It's tough to gauge bec Meyer finally has some offense and defense together. He's never had that before. 06 - horrible offense, great defense; 07 horrible defense, great offense; 08 - great offense, good defense.
Major you are still in spin mode for UF. You cant pick and choose who UFs rivals are when capping. This has to be unbiased. LSU and Auburn? Those are league games, they arent even in the same division as UF. MAYBE LSU. MAYBE. Auburn no way.
UFs rivals are UM, FSU, UGA, and TENN.
And we need to see how they did after they WON those games, not lost them. Big difference here.
Off the top of my head:
1. UF beat UM, went to Tennessee and won 30-6. Probably covered the spread, too. Then again, Tennessee is PUTRID.
2. Beat Tennessee, then came home to play Ole Miss and lost straight up. Ole Miss is very comparable to Vandy in my eyes.
3. Last year UF crushed Tennessee, and won a squeeker vs. Ole Miss the following week by less than a TD.
4. Crushed FSU, then lost to Michigan in a bowl game.
Looking at UFs schedule:
2006 national title year:
Beat Tennesee, then played a relatively close game vs. UK 26-7.
Beat Georgia 21-14, then went to Vandy in this exact situation and won a squeeker 25-19.
Beat FSU, then beat Arkansas in the SEC Title by 10.
In 2005, beat UGA, then squeeked out a win vs. Vandy by 7.
Looks to me, like this is an annual trap game under Meyer, and UF does NOT fair well in let down games after beating a rival. I throw the SEC Title and the Bow Game out as they should have been motivated for those.
I realize FL has more talent this year, but we are trying to see what Meyer's teams state of mind is off big rivarly games - and I see no difference why their state of mind will be any different this year after so much emphasis was placed on that UGA game.
Factor in the road game now, the magnitude of their win last week, 8pm primetime at Vandy. This is a very dangerous game for UF if history shows anything.
Im staying far away. I think Vandy covers this game 75% of the time and I dont want to bet against UF.
GL