Boxslayer's 2009 Bowl Season Plays and Writeups

[Boxslayer]

2008 Overall: 60-45, +16.90 units, 57%
2007 Overall: 60-42, +45.45 units, 59%
2006 Overall: 65-36, +45.49 units, 64%
3-Year Total: 185-123, +107.76 units, 60%

2008 Bowls: 0-0
2007 Bowls: 16-8, +32.0 units, 67%
2006 Bowls: 23-9, +42.8 units, 72%
3-Year Bowl Total: 39-17, +74.8 units, 70%


I have annually crushed the books during bowl time, hitting 70% over 56 plays over 2 years. I have also bet on every BCS Game over the last few years and I have never lost a BCS Game or National Title pick. I actually had a good regular season, my best regular season to date, and bowl time is where I usually clean up. So I am happy to come into bowl season up. If you look at my regular season tracking compared to bowls each year, you see I usually come into bowl season up small. 74 of my 91 units won over the past 2 years have come during bowl season.

This year, my regular season total plays already has equaled my total plays (regular season and bowl season) each of the past two years - indicating perhaps I wasnt as selective on my plays this year. Bottom line though, I have come into bowl season this year up more than I have ever been in the past coming into bowl season.

Bowl time is very similar to betting on mid-week games. I have been very successful the past few years, and again this year, betting on week day games. When there is one game per day and I have time to really break the game down, I hit at a very good rate. Last week, I put a little too much time and effort into the Gators capping, for obvious homer reasons, and ended up hitting the final score almost on the nose - and neglected a few other games more than I should have.

With the schedule slimming down, and not having 100 games on the board, I have the opportunity to focus in and bear down on these games 1 at a time.

If you jumped off my plays bc I have been away and laying low, and you want to win moving forward, I would kindly suggest zoning in over my next 30 plays. If the past 2 years is any indication, we should be in for a very profitable bowl season.


Let's roll.....

 

[5-0SAT]

Continue to bang the book this bowl season Box! :spanker: Looking forward to your plays!!!

 

[GoSooners]

Box....BOL this bowl season buddy. :toast:

 

[Boxslayer]

2* Navy Midshipmen +3 -110

The Line: Earlier in the year we saw a double digit line in favor of Wake Forest, on the heels of their predictions to compete for the ACC Conference Crown. This team was completely over valued. Over time it became apparent that this team is just not what they used to be. Their offense has sputtered all year long, having MULTIPLE games of only being able to muster teen points vs. average ACC competition. Navy's win over Wake solidified Navy as the better team, and in a BCS Team vs. non-BCS Team game with the BCS team only laying a field goal, there is little doubt that Wake Forest is the square play in this game. The public has reacted with close to 60% on the Demon Deacons.

Motivation: Wake Forest is now 2 years removed from their Orange Bowl berth, losing to Louisville in the BCS Game. Last year, they still played after Christmas and got their vengeance for their BCS loss out of their system. Now after a disappointing year, they lead off the bowl games, and this has to be a major letdown for these seniors who expected to play for big things this year. Navy is foaming at the mouth at get a BCS Team in this bowl game, and I think Navy comes out fired up. Wake Forest has seniors who will want to go out on a winning note, but not everything is sunshine and rainbows in life. Wake Forest is a strict academic institution, and there is little doubt these guys will be taking final exams seriously, while facing a fired up Navy squad with very difficult schemes to master and figure out.

My Line: Navy -5.

Stat of the Game: Wake Forest is a team that has THRIVED off turnovers for the last 3 years under Jim Grobe. Interceptions mainly. So much so, that in every single game they won this year, except for 1, Wake Forest intercepted a pass. In every single game they lost this year, they did NOT intercept the QB. The formula seems simple for Wake: Intercept the QB, win the game. Don't intercept the QB lose the game. With a wishbone, option attack, Navy is #3 in the country in turnover margin, and does not throw very many interceptions. It is no wonder why Wake could not beat this team earlier this year.

Analysis: Navy's QB Hakuna-Matada is one of the keys to this wishbone/option attack. He has played sparingly this year as he was out with a hamstring injury. Navy has lost just 1 game this year where he was the starting QB. 3 of their 4 losses, he did not play. Navy's wishbone option has given Wake fits the past 2 years, and you usually see good coaches adjust to something at halftime and shut it down second half. But in 2 full games Wake can not figure out the option attack. I see no reason why they suddenly understand how to stop it now. Navy will be able to move the football in this game, convert 3rd downs, and hit the occasional deep ball off the option - keeping Wake off balance. Navys ground attack chews up clock, and with Wakes inability to socre anyways, Wake should again struggle to put points on the scoreboard vs. a Navy defense that is playing outstanding football the past 2 weeks, pitching 2 straight shut outs. I dont care what competition you are facing, 2 straight shut outs is impressive. Florida did not shut out The Citadel and Oklahoma did not shut out Chattanooga - so keep it in perspective - backups or not.

Wake's offense is really bad and they can't get anything going this year. They have been poor all year and they have not gotten any better down the stretch averaging just 20 PPG their last 3 games. Wake has also backed into their bowl game, losing 2 of their last 3 and 4 of their last 7, while Navy has won 2 of their last 3 and 4 of their last 5. One team is going backwards and the other is streaking.

Wake can not score points, how are they going to win this game, much less COVER a spread?

Navy loves bowl games, as they are 4-0 ATS last 4 bowl games, and outside of their blowout loss to an outstanding Texas Tech offense a few years ago, Navy has either won their bowl game, or only lost by 3 points or less since 1996. Simply put, dont fade Navy in bowl games. They come to play and even if they lose, they play tough and keep it tight.

Don't think for a second that Wake Forest is some powerhouse who is too good for Navy. They aren't. And Navy plays very well vs. "BCS Teams" as they are 7-3 ATS vs. the ACC in their last 10 games.

Navy will look to end their season on a high note vs. a BCS Opponent that hasnt been able to stop them in the past.

Navy 24
Wake Forest 21

 

[Boxslayer]

Continue to bang the book this bowl season Box! :spanker: Looking forward to your plays!!!

Feel free to chime in and let's get this thing rolling and exchange info. GL

 

[Boxslayer]

Box....BOL this bowl season buddy. :toast:

Hey bud. GL to you, too. Feel free to chime in and I always check your threads from time to time as their is some good info in there. Thanks for the contributions.

GL!

 

[bigtendominator]

Box,

If recall correctly these teams played at Wake and Navy won 24-17. Navy scored on their 1st 2 possession and Wake had 6 turnovers, I believe 4 in the 1st H. You don't think without that many turnovers in this game Navy is still able to beat Wake?

I don't see Skinner throwing 4 picks again.

I am not very high on this game either way, but I feel like having already seen the triple option, Wake will do a better job of defending it.

 

[Boxslayer]

Box,

If recall correctly these teams played at Wake and Navy won 24-17. Navy scored on their 1st 2 possession and Wake had 6 turnovers, I believe 4 in the 1st H. You don't think without that many turnovers in this game Navy is still able to beat Wake?

I don't see Skinner throwing 4 picks again.

I am not very high on this game either way, but I feel like having already seen the triple option, Wake will do a better job of defending it.

Yes, I think without the turnovers, Navy still would have won that game. That was Navy's game all of the way, they lead wire to wire, and it was 10 4th quarter points from Wake that made that final score actually look competitive.

Navy moved the ball well, was able to grind clock, and Wake did not. And that has been the story of Wake all year.

Navys first two drives were earned TDs:
8 plays, 51 yards = TD
13 plays, 74 yards = TD

So while each team fumbled twice and the difference was Skinner's 4 INTs (1 of them was right before half and had no bearing on the game), it is doubtful that Skinner will throw 3 INTs in this game - but that chance always exists. Navy shut down the Wake Forest ground attack last game to 31 carries for 74 yards. They forced Skinner to air it out 40 times. When you throw the ball 40 times in a game, you are going to throw some picks.

I think the point here is that Navy drove the ball early and often and Wake needed Navys soft prevent defense to put up points late in the 4h quarter to make it look comeptitive.

Navy played Wake last year and ran the option well against them, so why were no adjustments made this year? This is not the 2nd time Wake will face the Navy option, it is the 3rd time in 2 years, and Navy continues to run it with success vs. Wake.

 

[MajorGCG]

We'll I'm against you on this one. On Wake precisely bec of the turnover issue and because Navy wont surprise Wake with their style of play. That is a tremendous advantage for Navy during bowl season IMO.

 

[Skoal37]

good luck Box. Look forward to your bowl picks bud. GL

 

[jblonghorn]

BOL this bowl season Box, I'll be tailin' ya. Even better, BOL in your Nat'l Championship game. I hope you tear them Sooners a new butthole!

 

[Boxslayer]

We'll I'm against you on this one. On Wake precisely bec of the turnover issue and because Navy wont surprise Wake with their style of play. That is a tremendous advantage for Navy during bowl season IMO.

Navy's had the same attack for a long time. Everyone knows what they run, it doesn't surprise anyone and everyone gameplans for it.

Wake, despite playing them twice in 2 years (and now 3 times in 2 years), has not been able to shut it down. Maybe 3 times is the charm, but I am going to say Wake is a ball hawking team that struggles when they face a run-oriented team that doesn't turn it over.

Wake has a hard enough time scoring points, but their time of possession will be limited in this game, and that will mean every possession will count for them and they are one of the worst red zone teams in the country in terms of punching it in once they get inside the red area. So even if Wake is able to move the ball effectively vs. an underrated Navy defense, there is no guarantee that they can cash in for TDs.

Navy cashing in TDs, and Wake having to kick FGs, can make more of a difference than any turnover.

Good luck bud

 

[Boxslayer]

good luck Box. Look forward to your bowl picks bud. GL

Good luck this bowl season

 

[Boxslayer]

BOL this bowl season Box, I'll be tailin' ya. Even better, BOL in your Nat'l Championship game. I hope you tear them Sooners a new butthole!

I dont play for the Gator football team bud. But thanks nonetheless.

 

[jblonghorn]

I dont play for the Gator football team bud. But thanks nonetheless.

I didn't think you did. I meant the team you root for.

 

[MikeyLo]

BOL Boxslayer!

 

[liftnbet]

on the navy pick as well.. great season box! you are great at what you do.. you, vor, ck.. you guys all do a great job..thank you for sharing your picks..you are money.. lets kill this bowl season.. bol to us

 

[Mr.Smith]

Nice record, well done. Hope you kick them in the nuts this bowl season! arty:

 

[ESQAJM]

Box: You have one thing working against you that you don't know about. I (the worst fckng jinx in the world) will be betting on your plays).

Perhaps for a relatively small bribe I could be induced to stay off your plays.

 

[bellyputter]

I dont play for the Gator football team bud. But thanks nonetheless.

Post of the fukn year! Box, the way many of these homers act, you would think they are lacing it up. Good luck with your bowl wagers.