Boxing Mosley-Vargas Bet 7/15

[charleslanger]

Harold Lederman had Mosley winning all of the first 3 rounds in the first fight. You can get Mosley -175 to be ahead on Harolds card after 3 rounds again tonight.

That might be a safer bet than Mosley straight at the same price

Last time the judged had it 86-85, 86-85, 85-86 despite the rest of the world seeing it 6-3 or 7-2. Obviously the pro-Vargas latino crowd was able to influence the scores, and it will be the exact same scenario this time.

The judges scorecards from the last fight should worry Mosley backers here

gl bl

Thanks very much for that--- did take that into consideration when doing the -4 points...Vargas just 'looks' so dangerous compared to most his opponents-- like he can take them out at any time...maybe that also plays into the decisions. But you know,
1. I'm really looking for a Mosley shutout...but i could be wrong about so many things: ref favors Vargas style, Vargas' new game plan works, etc. & assuming I am wrong for the sake of argument, then:
2. From the expected changed battle plans for each fighter-- something has to give: somebody 'has' to run out of gas and also get hit a LOT.

Even though a substantial scalp can be had with the O/U, I'm nevertheless sticking big with Mosley.

BTW I'm real fascinated with how you've taken all sides here with guaranteed profit-- if you'd care to give a summary, it'd be very interesting. I was going to ask you in your thread, but didn't want to come off as looking to pick a snit or steal your thunder.

BOL tonight & always.:toast:

PS re Harold: maybe Vargas overwhelms early this time...If that could've been a + price, then maybe it could be hedged w/ a round prop or something.....thanks again.

 

[charleslanger]

Thanks Charles! Do not have to watch the fight? But you are 100 % RIGHT! Mosely will K.O. Vargas. A Lock if ever one? Mosely too Skilled and Smart. Vargas only Hope a 1-3 round Prayer Knock-Out? Mosely Boxes from 1-4 rounds as he keeps the jab peppering Vargases swollen eyes again. 6-9rds. mosely sets in to his combinations body-head side to side movement. From here the broken if still around Vargas has the ref. stop? Corner? Lights-Out $ Paid we are Happy Again!

Caveat: for me this is not a lock like say, DelaHoya's last fight..otherwise i'd bet straight Win, & that expected net on Mosley by KO.....but is a similar lock in the style of DelaHoya-Vargas: bet Delahoya & hedge with the Under to possibly collect both bets but still collect something if it goes to the cards. At Mosley's age & size he 'better' be A1 tonight-- & the fast-paced 15 round sparring sessions do inspire enough confidence to lay the 4 points.

BOL

 

[charleslanger]

Vargas says last fight's bad eye caused by repeated head butts, NOT punches!

What is he-- delusional & paranoid from drugs & steroids??!!!!?

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/boxing/news/story?id=2518605

 

[boxlocks]

The swollen eye was a hematoma caused by one single blow in which a blood vessel or vein is broken.

Since the swelling was obvious after the 1st round, its obvious that the initial swelling wasn't caused by all the right hands that landed later in the fight.

A headbutt in the first round caused the hematoma, and Mosley's quik right hand landing at will made the swelling much worse. I've seen the headbutt in the first round that caused the whole thing, it wasn't a big one but it doesn't have to be.

Its not a coincidence that Rahman's hematoma occured while fighting Holyfield, who used his head as weapon like it was his fist.


Btw, sorry for disturbing your thread, my bad

No hard feelings

gl bl

 

[charleslanger]

The swollen eye was a hematoma caused by one single blow in which a blood vessel or vein is broken.

Since the swelling was obvious after the 1st round, its obvious that the initial swelling wasn't caused by all the right hands that landed later in the fight.

A headbutt in the first round caused the hematoma, and Mosley's quik right hand landing at will made the swelling much worse. I've seen the headbutt in the first round that caused the whole thing, it wasn't a big one but it doesn't have to be.

Its not a coincidence that Rahman's hematoma occured while fighting Holyfield, who used his head as weapon like it was his fist.


Btw, sorry for disturbing your thread, my bad

No hard feelings

gl bl

I enjoy & learn a lot from your insights. The only thing i wonder is how Lampley & others say they never saw...I believe what you said re the butt btw.

 

[boxlocks]

Excellent job tonight Charles


Congrats

 

[jimbo069]

Charles ! As the Posts reads a Lock if ever there is one. 6 th Round K.O. Winner! L O C K

 

[charleslanger]

Excellent job tonight Charles


Congrats

Thank you boxlocks!
I got lucky-- I don't get too many strong opinions that often-- end up passing A LOT of fights. The lesser-known fighters especially, i do not have a clue on: wish i could be able to bet many more fights like you do: hopefully this sub-forum will help with that. That's why i sincerely mean i learn a lot from you.

Maybe i can look at next week's Baldomir fight-- but those odds are so lopsided.

All the best, look forward to your musings.

 

[charleslanger]

Charles ! As the Posts reads a Lock if ever there is one. 6 th Round K.O. Winner! L O C K

Tally-ho! What prop did you bet-- & what odds did you grab, if i may ask?

YOU really called it on the button...no way was I even remotely THAT sure. Congrats to YOU!!!!!!!

 

[Uno]

Nice night Charles...

 

[charleslanger]

Nice night Charles...

Thank you, Doc!

BOL always.

 

[boxlocks]

Thank you boxlocks!
I got lucky-- I don't get too many strong opinions that often-- end up passing A LOT of fights. The lesser-known fighters especially, i do not have a clue on: wish i could be able to bet many more fights like you do: hopefully this sub-forum will help with that. That's why i sincerely mean i learn a lot from you.

Maybe i can look at next week's Baldomir fight-- but those odds are so lopsided.

All the best, look forward to your musings.

Thanks for the kind words...hope I can be more of a help in the future

The Gatti-Baldomir line was a unique situation where 5dimes opened their own number early and as usual it was way off. Along with a few other guys at madjacksports, I got Baldomir at +400 before they realized just how bad the line was. So I'm in the drivers seat now with Gatti at -190 at most shops.

My biggest play on this fight is Baldomir +17.5 points -115 as posted at the other forum. Unfortunately, and as predicted, the line has moved substancialy to +14.5 -115...I still see some value there but wouldn't play at less than 14 points. The fights in Gatti's back yard and hosted by his promoter so you can expect some favoritism here. But I expect this to be a very close fight, esp after Gatti hurts one or both of his hands.

Also played the Gatti-Baldomir Draw at +2500...very small


gl Charles...let me know if you ever want my opinion or have any questions on the fight game

bl

 

[charleslanger]

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Quote:
Originally Posted by charleslanger
Thank you boxlocks!
I got lucky-- I don't get too many strong opinions that often-- end up passing A LOT of fights. The lesser-known fighters especially, i do not have a clue on: wish i could be able to bet many more fights like you do: hopefully this sub-forum will help with that. That's why i sincerely mean i learn a lot from you.

Maybe i can look at next week's Baldomir fight-- but those odds are so lopsided.

All the best, look forward to your musings.



Thanks for the kind words...hope I can be more of a help in the future

The Gatti-Baldomir line was a unique situation where 5dimes opened their own number early and as usual it was way off. Along with a few other guys at madjacksports, I got Baldomir at +400 before they realized just how bad the line was. So I'm in the drivers seat now with Gatti at -190 at most shops.

My biggest play on this fight is Baldomir +17.5 points -115 as posted at the other forum. Unfortunately, and as predicted, the line has moved substancialy to +14.5 -115...I still see some value there but wouldn't play at less than 14 points. The fights in Gatti's back yard and hosted by his promoter so you can expect some favoritism here. But I expect this to be a very close fight, esp after Gatti hurts one or both of his hands.

Also played the Gatti-Baldomir Draw at +2500...very small


gl Charles...let me know if you ever want my opinion or have any questions on the fight game

bl

BL, thank you so much for your insights.
WOW! You've really raped this fight! If that's not a scalping with middling with beating steam lesson, i don't know what is!

Thanks again for your kind offer too.