Current line via betonline, BG -14.5
this is a game that has really caught my attention and I'd like to explain why. I think what we are seeing here is a blatant mismatch in talent and offense. It's my belief that people and line makerss alike are giving Kent state way to much credit here and using home field advantage to bring the line from what I feel should be 20 to what it is at 14 or 14.5.
first off, does bowling green have a look ahead scenario in play, no.... There next game after Kent state is Ohio at home, so there's no reason for them not to be focused on this game. Secondly, is bowling green injured, no, everything I've read shows they appear to be healthy and ready. Lastly, bowling green is currently first in the east division of the Mac, Kent state is 3rd so this game is very valuable. However, bowling green has won 4 in a row coming in and had it not been for a near 3 point loss to a very good Memphis team they would have only had a single blemish against Tennessee on their record. The past two game bowling green has scored 59 and 62 points lol... They are laying it on thick and the wheels are greased. Kent state just beat a flailing umass team 15-10.... Yeah 15-10.... Kent state has lost to Marshall, got trampled by An average Illinois team and thoroughly dismantled by Toledo who in all honesty could be a decent big ten team this season.
People led are really loving the Kent state defense and I'm scratching my head as to why...?? When they faced decent offenses like Illinois, Marshall and Toledo they got blown up...... Enter the fun and gun offense of bowling green.
matt Johnson leads the nation in passing and the total offense is ranked fourth in ypg behind Texas tech, Baylor and tcu lol... So yeah they are legit. They lead the country in first downs obtained and are converting 50% of their third down attempts. They have one 1,000 yard receiver and Matt Johnson is spinning the bean all over the place. They are literally wreaking havoc on secondary's and lighting people up. Meanwhile, Kent state leads the nation in punts with 58 and ranks 102 offensively in ypg ..... So you have one offense scoring at will, with an interesting behind the curtains possible heisman ceremony invitee(won't win it but will put up gaudy enough numbers to get recognized) going up against an offense that does more punting than scoring.... The Kent state defense has been exposed versus the better teams they've played, and then played well against the lesser competition. This is a name your score type of game, and with a couple guys nipping at Matt johnsons heels for the most passing yards I can't imagine Johnson not having a huge game.
This is is simply way to much for Kent state to handle, and while they mayyyyyyyy hang around for the first half I can't see them being there in the second. If bowling green comes out hot it's will be extremely ugly because Kent state literally can't hang with this team in any fashion. They are completely relying on their defense to create about eleventeen turnovers in order to have a chance here.
i almost dropped a max bet for me on the game when it opened at -14 BG but I decided to wait. It's up to -14.5 but hasn't moved since. I believe it will come back down to 14 or even under and when it does I'm hammering this play as a max bet in what I feel is a great situation for BG.
LONG STORY SHORT; I'd be STUNNED if Kent state was able to keep this thing within the number, and although crazier things have happened, this is an improbable scenario for them. Watch this his line closely, these small school, small conference games always slip thru the cracks, you just have to be able to find them and willing to bet them... If the line jumps and keeps climbing I'll still take bowling green but not for a max play. Bol guys
this is a game that has really caught my attention and I'd like to explain why. I think what we are seeing here is a blatant mismatch in talent and offense. It's my belief that people and line makerss alike are giving Kent state way to much credit here and using home field advantage to bring the line from what I feel should be 20 to what it is at 14 or 14.5.
first off, does bowling green have a look ahead scenario in play, no.... There next game after Kent state is Ohio at home, so there's no reason for them not to be focused on this game. Secondly, is bowling green injured, no, everything I've read shows they appear to be healthy and ready. Lastly, bowling green is currently first in the east division of the Mac, Kent state is 3rd so this game is very valuable. However, bowling green has won 4 in a row coming in and had it not been for a near 3 point loss to a very good Memphis team they would have only had a single blemish against Tennessee on their record. The past two game bowling green has scored 59 and 62 points lol... They are laying it on thick and the wheels are greased. Kent state just beat a flailing umass team 15-10.... Yeah 15-10.... Kent state has lost to Marshall, got trampled by An average Illinois team and thoroughly dismantled by Toledo who in all honesty could be a decent big ten team this season.
People led are really loving the Kent state defense and I'm scratching my head as to why...?? When they faced decent offenses like Illinois, Marshall and Toledo they got blown up...... Enter the fun and gun offense of bowling green.
matt Johnson leads the nation in passing and the total offense is ranked fourth in ypg behind Texas tech, Baylor and tcu lol... So yeah they are legit. They lead the country in first downs obtained and are converting 50% of their third down attempts. They have one 1,000 yard receiver and Matt Johnson is spinning the bean all over the place. They are literally wreaking havoc on secondary's and lighting people up. Meanwhile, Kent state leads the nation in punts with 58 and ranks 102 offensively in ypg ..... So you have one offense scoring at will, with an interesting behind the curtains possible heisman ceremony invitee(won't win it but will put up gaudy enough numbers to get recognized) going up against an offense that does more punting than scoring.... The Kent state defense has been exposed versus the better teams they've played, and then played well against the lesser competition. This is a name your score type of game, and with a couple guys nipping at Matt johnsons heels for the most passing yards I can't imagine Johnson not having a huge game.
This is is simply way to much for Kent state to handle, and while they mayyyyyyyy hang around for the first half I can't see them being there in the second. If bowling green comes out hot it's will be extremely ugly because Kent state literally can't hang with this team in any fashion. They are completely relying on their defense to create about eleventeen turnovers in order to have a chance here.
i almost dropped a max bet for me on the game when it opened at -14 BG but I decided to wait. It's up to -14.5 but hasn't moved since. I believe it will come back down to 14 or even under and when it does I'm hammering this play as a max bet in what I feel is a great situation for BG.
LONG STORY SHORT; I'd be STUNNED if Kent state was able to keep this thing within the number, and although crazier things have happened, this is an improbable scenario for them. Watch this his line closely, these small school, small conference games always slip thru the cracks, you just have to be able to find them and willing to bet them... If the line jumps and keeps climbing I'll still take bowling green but not for a max play. Bol guys
