Bowling for Dollars 2015

[sendacash]

I don't typically like to play the early lines, but did so in a couple cases already:

Ole Miss -6.5
LSU -5.5


Ole Miss should be motivated to put the hammer down on a Big 12 squad after what TCU did to them in the Bowl game last year. Texas Tech can't defend the run and here comes that man again, Leonard Fournette.

 

[sendacash]

Arizona St +2

Somewhat of a home game for the Sun Devils in Phoenix who rank #3 on defense in sacks per game. West Va has had issues protecting the passer, ranking #92 in sacks allowed. Bring the heat Todd Graham

 

[groundhog11]

Arizona St +2

Somewhat of a home game for the Sun Devils in Phoenix who rank #3 on defense in sacks per game. West Va has had issues protecting the passer, ranking #92 in sacks allowed. Bring the heat Todd Graham

im shocked on the wvu game...think zona st pounds us

 

[sendacash]

Can't believe I hit submit on Boise PK, which gets rejected so refresh and its -3 -120. lol

 

[sendacash]

im shocked on the wvu game...think zona st pounds us

West Va never seems like they play well west of the Mississippi, but they get plenty of practice these days. I think the bowl teams playing locally in their region is an easy angle, plus the whole pass rushing deal but there is no real advantage in terms of my power ratings here. Seems like I am fading the Big 12 for some reason.

 

[sendacash]

Got this idea from Quack's bowl thread after reading his take on the Arky St vs La Tech game. I like the idea of backing a team that finished their season on an upward trend, especially when facing an opponent who may have stumbled a bit down the stretch. So what I'm doing here is taking each teams change in power ratings over the last 5 weeks, from week 10 to week 14 and then compare that to their opponent. When the difference between those changes over the last 5 weeks is greater than 5, I'll call it a 'Cinco' play. Arky St. vs La Tech actually has my largest differential at 8 points so that is the first play:

Arkansas St. ML -102

Ole Miss is also a Cinco play and there are a few more out there, but want to see if I can get a better number. For now going to add one more:

Indiana -1.5

 

[sendacash]

Gonna simplify the system just a bit and look at the teams who have increased the most in my power ratings over the last 5 weeks irregardless of the opponent. Tied at the top of that list is South Florida and while the power rating numbers don't show any value, I'm going to give them a couple points for HFA with the game down in Miami and make this a play:

South Florida +3.5

 

[sendacash]

Here's another Cinco system play, was hoping for a better number but it looks like we may lose the 3s so gonna go ahead a lock down:

North Carolina +3

 

[sendacash]

USC -3

While they got drubbed by Stanford in the Pac-12 title game, there is some concern for a letdown not making the Rose Bowl but I think they will want to win for the new coach Helton not taking back to back losses into the off-season. This game comes down to strength of schedule for me as USC has played the Sagarin rated 3rd hardest schedule while Wisky's SOS ranks only 70th overall. Obviously I like Cody Kessler playing in his last game as a Trojan over Joel Stave and just think USC has a lot more talent at the skill positions. Wisconsin has not impressed me this year and has yet to beat a single team with a winning record and I've made some good $ fading them thus far so why stop now?

 

[sendacash]

Washington -8.5

Southern Miss has been a cash cow for their backers going 10-3 ATS this season so I'm not exactly thrilled to be going against them here as the Golden Eagles have been one of the most improved teams of 2015. Coming into this season I thought Washington was really going to struggle given their lack of experience, however they really seemed to find something as the season went on as they out-gained opponents in 5 straight games(losing two of those to Utah & Az. State) to end the season, 4 of those by more than 100 yards. While Washington only finished 6-6 SU on the season, they did so while facing the 21st most difficult schedule. On the other hand, So Miss' strength of schedule was 135th in the country, lower than some FCS squads. Bottom line is that the Huskies are my most improved Pac-12 team and I like their defense and they have a coaching advantage as well

 

[mudman]

BOL on all of your plays.

 

[sendacash]

Thanks Mud, definitely gonna need some luck for sure. I'm still playing with house money and CFB is really the only sport I bet on so this marks the end of my betting season until next year. I like how the college season ends with a flurry having bowl games almost every day of the week, but then I'm glad when its over as well.

 

[sendacash]

San Diego St. +105

Looks like we may have one of those "Running Dogs" here with the Aztecs as they average 235 Yds rushing per game on offense versus Cinci's 186. The real difference comes on the defensive side of the ball whereby SD surrenders only 112 Yds/G and 3.2 Ypr versus teams that average 4.4 YPR. Meanwhile rush D has been a problem for the Bearcats who have yielded 5.0 YPR versus offenses that average only 4.0 YPR. I think the Hawaii venue may benefit the Aztecs who have already made a trip to Honolulu thus year, where as for thee kids from Cinci this may very well be a Hawaiian vacation.

 

[sendacash]

San Diego St. +105

Looks like we may have one of those "Running Dogs" here with the Aztecs as they average 235 Yds rushing per game on offense versus Cinci's 186. The real difference comes on the defensive side of the ball whereby SD surrenders only 112 Yds/G and 3.2 Ypr versus teams that average 4.4 YPR. Meanwhile rush D has been a problem for the Bearcats who have yielded 5.0 YPR versus offenses that average only 4.0 YPR. I think the Hawaii venue may benefit the Aztecs who have already made a trip to Honolulu this year, where as for the kids from Cinci this may very well be a Hawaiian vacation.

 

[sendacash]

Georgia State +3

The Panthers (yes I had to look up their mascot) qualify as another "Cinco System" play as they are tied with So Fla for my most improved team via my power ratings over the last 5 weeks. Georgia St. comes into the Cure Bowl with some momentum, winners of 4 in a row including an impressive 34-7 victory over Georgia Southern. Meanwhile, San Jose backs in losing 3 out of their last 4 games while sporting a not so impressive 5-7 overall record. I have to think the Orlando venue favors Georgia State as well as I just don't see many San Jose fans traveling across country to witness a Bowl game between their 5-7 Spartans and a team they may never have heard of before.

 

[sendacash]

Northwestern +8.5
Clemson +4

Just tailing on a couple plays here and want to get these down before any line moves.

 

[indiana]

S/cash.........thank you for the early info..........BOL this Bowl Season..........indy

 

[sendacash]

Virginia Tech -13.5

I made this number -19 and granted I've been off on Va Tech most of the year, I don't think I'm this far off. Motivation should not be an issue given this is coach Beamer's last game guiding the Hokies. Yeah there's the concern about getting back doored laying this many to an offense that can score, but the key difference is on the defensive side of the ball where Tulsa ranks #126 on total D to Va Tech's #24. Beamer Ball one more time.

 

[sendacash]

BYU +3 -120

Been back and forth on this game and ultimately think motivation is on the side of the Mormons. Utah had their dreams of going to the Rose Bowl shattered and find themselves back in Vegas with a handle in their hand. Game has shown some signs of RLM with 67% of bettors on the Utes and line going the other way, I made this game Utah -1 so it looks like we are getting line value as well.