Disregard that question, it's irrelevant. For that approach to be equally profitable, the 62 wins would have had to consist of 55 first half unders and 7 2nd half unders.
So obviously there is an advantage to chasing, but there is also a risk...
If that 30-5 record from last year drops to...
28-7 then the profit is 3.5 units (counting the 28 wins as 14 won in 1st and 14 won in 2nd)
27-8 then the profit is -.7 units (counting the 27 wins as 14 won in 1st and 13 won in 2nd)
26-9 then the profit is -5 units (counting the 26 wins as 13 won in 1st and 13 won in 2nd)
26-9 is the "most likely" scenario if the lines are true, because 35 games divided by 4 possible outcomes = 8.75. Only 1 of the 4 outcomes results in a loss...i.e....
scenario 1 = 1st half under and 2nd half under +1 unit
scenario 2 = 1st half under and 2nd half over +1 unit
scenario 3 = 1st half over and 2nd half under +.9 unit
scenario 4 = 1st half over and 2nd half over -3.3 units
I'd be curious to know what this system has done the last 5 years before taking the plunge on this approach.
BOL to everyone who does follow...I know I'll be playing alot of unders myself.