Thanks GS, GL to you too.
I believe USF will get their offense back on track after having faced some solid defenses the past several weeks. Memphis is also very capable on offense. The game is also being played in a dome, which can't hurt.
I am still a little concerned w/ BYU's motivation in the Las Vegas Bowl. I believe they were expecting a lot more out of this season. Arizona on the other hand is very happy to be going to any bowl.
Although I like both Wake and BYU, I am mildly concerned about the motivation of both of these teams. Wake's especially since they are playing a team they played in the regular season. And Navy always gets motivated for bowl games, no matter what. What I'm hoping for is Wake will be motivated to make up for their early season loss, and the game will go more like the 44-24 game they played against Navy last year. As for BYU, I'm hoping that Max Hall will be motivated to get that 4 interception game he had against Utah behind him. This is another game where we know the opposition will be fired up. But my question here is will Stoops be up for ther task of preparing his team against a veteran like Mendenhall? Personally I think both of these games are very tough. And both could end up very close. Especially Navy/Wake, where I don't think either team has a good enough offense to run away from the other.
As for the Memphis/USF game, I look for USF's point production to go up significantly for this game from their last 4 games. They're playing a Memphis defense who gives up about 360 ypg (not bad by CUSA standards). But Memphis didn't have to face either Houston or Tulsa this year in their conference. So this significantly helps their overall defensive stats. In USF's last 4 games they've faced BCS defenses who give up only 320 ypg on average. So the Bulls should find the going much easier here. We definitely need USF in the mid to high 30's to cover the over. The big question is will Memphis have the success they had in the CUSA against statistically the best defense that they've faced all year. Memphis is very good running the ball. But USF only gives up 100 ypg rushing in a pretty good running conference. So we'll see how it goes. But I'm leaning to the over as well for a small play. BOL
i also think colorado st. is the play. i heard someone mentioning fresno was excited to play here. what??? yeah before the season they were so hoping to play in this bowl. they get up for the bcs squads as doggies not favs vs mwc teams. on paper fresno looks way too easy but i just dont see them getting up for this game imo.
GoSooners, very good point about Memphis not having faced either Tulsa or Houston. I would agree this certainly makes their defensive numbers look a little more attractive than they actually are. I believe Memphis will have success on offense (I'm thinking/hoping mid-20's). They were able to put up 24 points @ Mississippi (who was the statistical best defense in terms of ppg allowed), they also played 3 games w/o their starting QB Hall, which hindered their offensive output, especially in the passing game, during the season.
I agree, no way Fresno is excited to be in this game. They had BCS aspirations before the season started. When I look at this game on paper, I do not see much difference between these two teams except that CSU gathered their stats in a very good MWC as opposed to Fresno's weak WAC schedule.
I don't particularly like either team, I just don't believe Fresno should necessarily be favored here. I also agree w/ your point that Fresno lives to play BCS schools as dogs and is not a good team as a favorite.
