Bet small. FAU might be totally uninspired, but 8 is a lot when FAU is playing in their home stadium. Maybe bet it down to 7.
1* Marshall +17.5 Kind of a preemptive strike on this one. From folks around UCF, they know backup QB Wimbush and RB Adrian Killins are not playing, but top WR, Gabriel Davis, is also not likely to play. HE is the best NFL prospect on this offense, although Killins led the team in ypc. Marshall is a public dog, and it's probably because Doc Holliday is magic in these bowl games. UCF HC Josh Heupel is playing a little gamesmanship by holding out on announcements of who is sitting, hoping that Marshall heavily game plans for guys that aren't playing. The Marshall QB, Green, is the key here too. He can be a guy that can make the right throws, and decisions, but he is frustratingly inconsistent. I think this line is so high because bettors are figuring the UCF defense will make him turn the ball over. Marshall does have a nice run game, the defense is solid, but not as solid as UCF's. UCF dominated a couple of teams this year like Temple and the 1H vs. Stanford, but overall, their wins were close, as were their losses.
3* La. Tech +6 Skip Holtz has been money in bowl games. He has the better QB, and Miami does not have the defense everyone thought they would have. Now 3 players on the defense are sitting out. FIU OL was able to handle the Miami DL and LBs, and CMU nearly upset them too. Miami, under Manny Diaz, looks every bit as undisciplined as previous Miami teams. La. Tech would have likely have had a better season( 1 or 2 more wins) if their QB(J.Mar Smith) and top WR weren't suspended for a few games. They are both back and have owned up and have regret that they let their team down. Smith is mobile, a senior, and a 66% passer. Consistent. Game is in Shreveport, and though LT is excited to be in a bowl game near their fans, Miami players have to be let down playing at this god-forsaken destination. Miami OL and QB situation is too poor to expect much scoring out of them. In fact, one of the angles I'm taking here is that both the DL and OL of Miami will not overwhelm LT in this game, and with a mobile QB, LT should be able to win or keep up.
1* Hawaii +2 Why is Hawaii only getting 2? This line might indicate some sharp bets on Hawaii. After all, BYU crushed them last season, BYU recruits in Hawaii, and they have the better defense. But I got a feeling that Nick Rolovich will have some surprises for BYU, and I give him the edge in coaching here- which can be crucial in bowl games. Hawaii also has improved their defense toward the end of the season, and with BYU not really having much of a run game ( 2 of their best RBs out with injuries), Hawaii can concentrate defensively on keeping the Hawaii QB uncomfortable in the pocket. All of the BYU QBs have had injuries, although at least 2 of them will be fine for this game. BYU is hard to gauge. They can look perfectly awful one week, and then beat USC another. I thought Hawaii played a pretty good game at Boise for the Mt. West Championship, but they got bogged down close to the goal line, or gave up a big play a couple of times. But the run defense was solid, and coverage of receivers was also pretty decent. Hawaii has 2 QBs they can go to, and both are considered scramblers and will run the ball. Hopefully, the Hawaii fans give them a nice crowd.
1* Hawaii +2 Why is Hawaii only getting 2? This line might indicate some sharp bets on Hawaii. After all, BYU crushed them last season, BYU recruits in Hawaii, and they have the better defense. But I got a feeling that Nick Rolovich will have some surprises for BYU, and I give him the edge in coaching here- which can be crucial in bowl games. Hawaii also has improved their defense toward the end of the season, and with BYU not really having much of a run game ( 2 of their best RBs out with injuries), Hawaii can concentrate defensively on keeping the Hawaii QB uncomfortable in the pocket. All of the BYU QBs have had injuries, although at least 2 of them will be fine for this game. BYU is hard to gauge. They can look perfectly awful one week, and then beat USC another. I thought Hawaii played a pretty good game at Boise for the Mt. West Championship, but they got bogged down close to the goal line, or gave up a big play a couple of times. But the run defense was solid, and coverage of receivers was also pretty decent. Hawaii has 2 QBs they can go to, and both are considered scramblers and will run the ball. Hopefully, the Hawaii fans give them a nice crowd.
Updated Bowl Record: 8-5, +1.55 units 2-0(posted, not *) Georgia Southern game put a serious crimp on my bankroll.
4* UNC -4.5 The only team that gave Clemson a tough game. However, Clemson had to have one letdown game, and maybe UNC just got them on a lucky week. Yet UNC came close to winning. That's not why they are a nice play vs. Temple. The bowl season, being a one game season and with extra practices, give UNC another advantage. UNC just has the much better offensive firepower, and the extra time to make it even more dynamic. Temple has lost a lot of good talent in recent years to the NFL, and they don't reload like some programs. The have some good players in the front D7, and an offensive lineman who is All-AAC. But there is just not enough in the running game or passing game to work with. UNC's Sam Howell has been a nice find for a young QB. Great touch on the ball, some zip, can move around the pocket sensing pressure, will go to receivers that are not his primary read, and he has the RBs and receivers to make a mediocre Temple secondary real struggle. Howell has a great TD to INT ratio, but has been sacked often. Hopefully UNC game plans to offset this issue, and works with Howell on NOT feeling like he has to make a completion every play.
Rod Carey, the Temple coach, was hired after Manny Diaz bailed after only 2 weeks on the job. Carey was fairly successful at NIU, but 0-6 in bowl games. In my observations of NIU in bowl games, they seemed to be overly conservative and to get beat up pretty bad. Mack Brown, on the other hand, has a decent bowl record. Not a fan of his Texas years, but his players love him and he has kept his team close this season, even in their losses. They did play a pretty tough ACC schedule. UNC also has some young talent on their defense that will get to participate in bowl practices and play in the game. The mood is good for them now.
4* UNC -4.5 The only team that gave Clemson a tough game. However, Clemson had to have one letdown game, and maybe UNC just got them on a lucky week. Yet UNC came close to winning. That's not why they are a nice play vs. Temple. The bowl season, being a one game season and with extra practices, give UNC another advantage. UNC just has the much better offensive firepower, and the extra time to make it even more dynamic. Temple has lost a lot of good talent in recent years to the NFL, and they don't reload like some programs. The have some good players in the front D7, and an offensive lineman who is All-AAC. But there is just not enough in the running game or passing game to work with. UNC's Sam Howell has been a nice find for a young QB. Great touch on the ball, some zip, can move around the pocket sensing pressure, will go to receivers that are not his primary read, and he has the RBs and receivers to make a mediocre Temple secondary real struggle. Howell has a great TD to INT ratio, but has been sacked often. Hopefully UNC game plans to offset this issue, and works with Howell on NOT feeling like he has to make a completion every play.
Rod Carey, the Temple coach, was hired after Manny Diaz bailed after only 2 weeks on the job. Carey was fairly successful at NIU, but 0-6 in bowl games. In my observations of NIU in bowl games, they seemed to be overly conservative and to get beat up pretty bad. Mack Brown, on the other hand, has a decent bowl record. Not a fan of his Texas years, but his players love him and he has kept his team close this season, even in their losses. They did play a pretty tough ACC schedule. UNC also has some young talent on their defense that will get to participate in bowl practices and play in the game. The mood is good for them now.
Been thinking about it. But MSU's offense was really bad, and Oregon's offense was struggling all 2018. However, Oregon's defense has been very good this season, and I think they can handle Wisconsin. I'm surprised that Jonathan Taylor is playing. RBs have such a short "football life" in their prime, and I don't begrudge them one bit for preserving themselves for the NFL paycheck. It's the Rose Bowl, but it's not part of the playoff. Maybe Chryst sits him more than usual. Oregon has risen to the challenge every big game, and am thinking to take them on a straight bet.
Helluva ending to that Hawaii game. That's why it's a 1* game. Could have gone either way.
1* Iowa -2 Really would like to load up on Iowa since USC seems to be so dysfunctional right now. Terrible recruiting so far, Helton escapes with his job although USC fans have been calling for his head since last season. Helton is a players' coach to a fault. Former players have claimed that players have a sense of entitlement and that practices were not "required". There just seems to be a pall over the team and if not for Iowa's offensive issues, I'd be all over them. Very good defense, disciplined team, but they were lucky to lose only 3 games this season. Iowa just doesn't have the playmakers to make Nate Stanley look good again this year. If Slovis and his receivers score a few TDs here, it might be difficult for Iowa to keep up. USC's defense is not that good even by PAC 12 standards, but Iowa struggled to score against even mediocre competition. Iowa is savvy enough to pressure Slovis, bang him around, cause turnovers, and maybe knock him out of the game…and it's possible USC looks ill-prepared and off in its timing. Whatever you bet, don't bet the mortgage on this game.
1* Iowa -2 Really would like to load up on Iowa since USC seems to be so dysfunctional right now. Terrible recruiting so far, Helton escapes with his job although USC fans have been calling for his head since last season. Helton is a players' coach to a fault. Former players have claimed that players have a sense of entitlement and that practices were not "required". There just seems to be a pall over the team and if not for Iowa's offensive issues, I'd be all over them. Very good defense, disciplined team, but they were lucky to lose only 3 games this season. Iowa just doesn't have the playmakers to make Nate Stanley look good again this year. If Slovis and his receivers score a few TDs here, it might be difficult for Iowa to keep up. USC's defense is not that good even by PAC 12 standards, but Iowa struggled to score against even mediocre competition. Iowa is savvy enough to pressure Slovis, bang him around, cause turnovers, and maybe knock him out of the game…and it's possible USC looks ill-prepared and off in its timing. Whatever you bet, don't bet the mortgage on this game.
Glad to see you on Tarheels. I like that one also. Mack Brown turned this program around in dramatic fashion. I like Sam Howell and I think the extra practice will help this offense. Agree UNC has a lot more scoring punch than Temple. Also, UNC finished their season against their intrastate rival. Instead of just beating them, they destroyed them. I see that as a good sign heading into the bowl game.
2* Wake Forest +4 I just can't see a game this year where Michigan State clearly beat up a decent team, and they especially faded after a soft early schedule. Beat Indiana by 9 at home, although they scored 10 points in the last 5 seconds of the game on a FG and a fumble return. Their defense is good, but not nearly as dominant as previous years. They also lost their star MLB, Joe Bachie, to a suspension. I just can't believe that after all these years of a predictable, poorly executed offense, things got even worse this year. They struggled in the red zone, no longer could count on their run game, couldn't convert 3rd and 4th downs, and had kicking issues.
I'm going to go with Dave Clawson's opposite, unpredictable(especially with extra practice time) approach to offense, and his success in bowl games. Jamie Newman will likely play, although Hartman will fill in nicely if needed. Good chance Hartman plays anyways, and Wake will have some wildcat, or pass-run options with either of those two, or Kendall Hinton, who used to be a QB. Wake just seems like the right team in this one game season that is the bowl season. Brian Lewerke has dropped off the radar for NFL teams, but his WRs have not helped him this season with drops and being unable to separate from DBs- and not making those "money" catches that are needed when the ball is up for grabs. And finally I'll take a team that is likely to be loose and enjoys the game, rather than a team coached by a tense, angry guy that seems to take the fun out of playing.
I'm going to go with Dave Clawson's opposite, unpredictable(especially with extra practice time) approach to offense, and his success in bowl games. Jamie Newman will likely play, although Hartman will fill in nicely if needed. Good chance Hartman plays anyways, and Wake will have some wildcat, or pass-run options with either of those two, or Kendall Hinton, who used to be a QB. Wake just seems like the right team in this one game season that is the bowl season. Brian Lewerke has dropped off the radar for NFL teams, but his WRs have not helped him this season with drops and being unable to separate from DBs- and not making those "money" catches that are needed when the ball is up for grabs. And finally I'll take a team that is likely to be loose and enjoys the game, rather than a team coached by a tense, angry guy that seems to take the fun out of playing.
