bounce back week. my ratings vs vegas line for every game on the board

[w365]

This is something I do every week...Line studying for every game. This style is more successifull as the season progresses because the data is bigger and more comprehensive.


1-3 (SMU) @ 1-2 (TUL)-17.5

The line is Tulane -17.5 and according to my ratings it is a little bit higher than average for a home team that is ranked some 40 places better. the closest lines for a home team ranked 30-50 places better have been TCU -15.5 (W), Boise -17.5 (L), UCONN -13 (L), PIT -14 (L), IND -18 (P), ORE -14 (W), OHST -21 (L), UNLV -11 (L), CLE -21 (L). Wagerline shows over 73% on Tulane at this moment and that is the highest % (by far) for any of the teams on that list. The closest ones have been Boise (60.83) L, Pittsburgh (71.65) L, Indiana (63.06) P, UNLV (63.39) L, CLE (66.76) L and those 5 teams went 0-4-1 ATS.

Conclusion: The line is inflated after three straight covers for Tulane and three blowout losses by SMU in their three lined games. However, when I look at the public support Tulane is getting with this line, I have a feeling that this line might not be inflated at all. The public would bet on Tulane even if they were favored by 21 or more. Lean: SMU +18 (if you like SMU here then wait before the game time as the line could go up).


(2-0) USC -25 @ (1-2) ORST

USC (as usual) has a very inflated line here for a road team ranked 30-135 places better. The only road team that was favored by this many points while not being ranked 100+ places better was USC (again) against Virginia. They covered that spread in a non conference game. This time the line is even more inflated with even more public bets on USC.

Conclusion: I don't see any edge in this game for either team (not enough data to make any decision).


(4-0) UCONN @ (2-1) LOU -3.5

According to my ratings, Connecticut is slightly better ranked than Louisville (9 places) and these teams have been doing extremely well so far this season as long as they were not underdogs of 6.5 pts or more or favorites of 5 pts or more. The record for these teams is 12-1 ATS year-to-date, and the only loser was Iowa State last week (lost in OT). The list of teams that went 12-1 ATS include: Rice +2.5 (W), WF +4.5 (W), AKR +4.5 (W), BST +2 (W), KAN +4.5 (W), AF +2.5 (W), IOST +1.5 (L), SMISS +1.5 (W), CMU -2.5 (W), TXAM -1.5 (W), MIA -2.5 (W) LSU -2 (W) and ARI -3 (W).

Conclusion: The public is not impressed with UCONN and the support for Louisville in this game is huge. But if Louisville was really much better than UCONN, they would be favored by more than 3.5 at home. 3.5 points is basically the home field advantage in CFB. Lean: UCONN+3.5

 

[w365]

(1-2) LAF @ (2-1) KAST -21

I have Kansas State ranked 77 places better than LAF. These home favorites usually lay 18 to 25 points and from that perspective, this line is about right. Home favorits better 60-80 places are 7-9 ATS so far this season and when they are favored by 14-27 points they are 2-8 ATS. If they are favored by less than 14 or more than 27 they are 5-0 ATS ytd.
Generally speaking 60-80 places better teams at home get over 60% of action regardless the line. But when they get over 70% of action they are 1-7 ATS.

Conclusion: LAF continues to be underrated by the public and the books are stil trying to get a lot of action on LAF opponents. Lean: LAF +21.


(2-1) NC @ (2-1) MIA -8

I got Miami ranked 29 places better than NC. Home teams ranked 11-30 places better have not been a good proposition so far this season if they are not favored by more than 10.5 points as they are 0-11 ATS ytd.
This list includes CLE -4, PUR -10.5, RUT -5.5, MICH -3, V.T. -7, ORE -10, RUT -3.5, MARS -6.5, LOU -3.5, BC -6.5, and ARM +7. What's even more interesting about this group of teams is that 7 of these 10 favorites lost the game outright (Clemson, Rutgers twice, Michigan, Oregon, Louisville and BC).

Conclusion: A home team ranked better than the road team, by 10-30 places, should be favored by 2 TD's with the home field advantage if they are really much better than the road team. If they are not favored by that many, it usually means that the linemaker believes that the road team can keep it close or win outright. Lean: UNC +8

 

[sandbagger73]

W365

Love The Reasoning!! Please Post More!!!!

 

[w365]

(1-3) KST @ (4-0) BST -17.5

Ball State is ranked 91 places better than KST and these home favorites rarely lay less than 20 pts. This is actually the 2nd biggest differential in the ratings of all home favorites of less than 20 pts. The biggest one so far this season was Michigan laying 14.5 against Miami of Ohio and they failed to cover the spread. There have only been 4 home favorites ytd of less than 20 pts that were ranked 70 places or better than the road team and they went 0-4 ATS.

Conclusion: The public is all over this unbeaten home favorite and that is a natural reaction to this line. However the linemaker expects some kind of a letdown here after a road win against a major conference opponent. Ball State is going to Toledo next week and that might be the reason for this low line as well. Lean: Kent State +17.5

 

[CrapGame]

Great Info
Thx
I still like BSU this weekend but I like your posts

 

[vijaysinger]

(1-2) LAF @ (2-1) KAST -21

I have Kansas State ranked 77 places better than LAF. These home favorites usually lay 18 to 25 points and from that perspective, this line is about right. Home favorits better 60-80 places are 7-9 ATS so far this season and when they are favored by 14-27 points they are 2-8 ATS. If they are favored by less than 14 or more than 27 they are 5-0 ATS ytd.
Generally speaking 60-80 places better teams at home get over 60% of action regardless the line. But when they get over 70% of action they are 1-7 ATS.

Conclusion: LAF continues to be underrated by the public and the books are stil trying to get a lot of action on LAF opponents. Lean: LAF +21.


(2-1) NC @ (2-1) MIA -8

I got Miami ranked 29 places better than NC. Home teams ranked 11-30 places better have not been a good proposition so far this season if they are not favored by more than 10.5 points as they are 0-11 ATS ytd.
This list includes CLE -4, PUR -10.5, RUT -5.5, MICH -3, V.T. -7, ORE -10, RUT -3.5, MARS -6.5, LOU -3.5, BC -6.5, and ARM +7. What's even more interesting about this group of teams is that 7 of these 10 favorites lost the game outright (Clemson, Rutgers twice, Michigan, Oregon, Louisville and BC).

Conclusion: A home team ranked better than the road team, by 10-30 places, should be favored by 2 TD's with the home field advantage if they are really much better than the road team. If they are not favored by that many, it usually means that the linemaker believes that the road team can keep it close or win outright. Lean: UNC +8

UNC starting QB Yates out six weeks with broken ankle. That said, UNC defense playing well.

 

[w365]

(3-1) MICH.ST -8.5 @ (2-1) IND

I have Michigan State ranked 50 places better than Indiana. These teams have not bee doing well when favored by not more than 9. Road teams favored by less than 9.5 and ranked 20+ places better are 4-12 ATS. And if they have 60% or more bets on them, they are 2-10 ATS. Michigan State will have at least 60% on them on game day but the question is, will they be favored by less than 9.5. Anyways, right now they fit into that 2-10 ATS group. Lean: Indiana +8.8

(1-2) VIR @ (2-1) DUK -6.5

According to my ratings, Virginia has a 25 places edge and these teams normally have a 50% chance of covering the spread as underdogs. However, when the better team is the road team and that team is getting 6.5 points or more, the underdog is 2-7 ATS. That trend includes this same Virginia team when they were 10.5 pts underdogs at UCONN, Notre Dame last week at Michigan State, UCLA @ BYU (in what happened to be one of their worst losses in school history). Lean: Duke -6.5


(2-1) PIT -15.5 @ (1-3) SYR

I have Pittsburgh ranked 62 places better and when the road team is ranked not more than 80 places better, and is laying 9.5 pts or more, the record for that road fave is 10-6 ATS. However, the teams that covered that spread are the elite teams in college football, like Texas Tech, Oklahoma, USC and I don't consider Pittsburgh an elite team, especially with their current headcoach. Lean: None.


(3-1) OHST -17.5 vs 4-0 (MIN)

Ohio State is ranked 38 places better than Minnesota. This line is very inflated, as there were only two other home teams ranked not more than 45 places better and favored by a similar number of points, and both of them failed to cover. The first one is Clemson, laying 21 against NCST and the second one was this same OHST team laying 21. It is a common thing for ranked teams to have an inflated line. Teams ranked 20-55 better and favored by 10.5-21 pts on the road are 3-10 ATS ytd. Lean: MIN +17.5

 

[w365]

(3-1) MARY @ (3-1) CLE -11

Clemson is ranked only 30 places better than Maryland, not because Maryland has been playing well, but because Clemson has been an underachiever so far this season. These teams have been covering the double digit spread at 50% so far this season and I see no edge for either team in this game. Clemson is probably better than their current rating, but instead of guessing, I will pass on this one. Lean: None.

(1-2) NIU -6.5 @ 1-3 (EMU)

NIU is ranked 40 places better than EMU right now and road teams ranked 30 places or better and laying 7 or less are only 1-12 ATS so far this season. The list of teams that were in this situation and did not cover include UCONN @ Temple, ECU @ NCST, ORST @ STAN, FRE @ TOL, WVA @ ECU and so on.
Lean: EMU +7 after buying 0.5


4-0 NW @ 3-1 IOW -8.5

Iowa is ranked 15 places better and the line of -8 just doesn't fit into any category right now. Home teams placed 20 places or less better than the road team and favored by 10+ are 7-1 ATS. However, when they are favored by 7 or less they are 3-7 ATS. There is no data for teams favored by more than 7 and less than 10 year-to-date, so this one is a pass. Lean: None.


(0-3) ARM @ (1-2) TXAM -28.5


Texas A&M has a ranking of 100 places better than Army and these teams at home have a 10-8-1 ATS record ytd. These teams usually lay anywhere from 21.5 to 42 pts to their opponents and there is no edge to go with them or against them, regardless the public support %. Lean: None.


(2-2) Ole Miss @ (3-0) FLA -22.5

Florida is ranked 70 places better than Ole Miss and teams that are rabked better, but not more than 75 places better are 4-2 ATS if favored by 23 or more and 1-7-1 ATS if favored by 17-22. pts. There is no clear edge for either Florida or Ole Miss with this line.
Florida has already played once against a team ranked some 70 places worst (Hawaii) and they covered. However, they were 36 pts favorites and no other favorite has been favored by anything close to that with a rating differential of less than 100 places, which goes to show you how sure the linemakers were that Florida would go all over Hawaii in that one. Lean: None.

 

[w365]

(3-1) ARKST -1.5 @ (1-3) MEM

Here is an interesting line. I have Arkansas State ranked 35 places better and these teams (ranked better but not more than 80 and not less than 20 places) are either underdogs or favorites of 7 pts or less. When underdogs, these teams cover if small underdogs and fail to cover as big underdogs. When favorites of 9 pts or less they are 6-15 ATS. Finally, when they are very small favorites of less than 6 they are 1-4 ATS. The only one that covered was Wisconsin laying 2 @ Fresno and winning by 3. Lean: MEM +1.5


(3-1) WMU -4 @ (1-3) TEM

WMU is ranked 40 places better than Temple and fits into that same 6-15 ATS category as Arkansas State against Memphis. The important thing here is that Temple lost its starting QB and this will not be my play regardless the line. Temple rating could take a major hit due to this injury if they play poorly in this game. However, for the moment the lean is: TEM +4

 

[w365]

Great Info
Thx
I still like BSU this weekend but I like your posts

Ball State is a lot better than Kent. The line however suggest a possible letdown. We shall see. Not sure yet if they will be my official play. This is the first time this year that I use this approach to chose my plays. Usually it takes 4-5 weeks to gather the info before fully exploiting this system. I used the same approach with arena football when I went 70% for the season. Been using this approach in pro/college football in hoops for the past 4 years. But it always take some time before you can use it as the previous seasons stats are meaningless when capping this way.

 

[w365]

(2-1) FRST -6.5 @ (1-2) UCLA

I've got Fresno as a 12 places better ranked team than UCLA. However I predict that the difference in ratings will be higher later on this season. These road faves with not significant differential iun ratings are 50% ATS so far and since I'm not really sure that my ratings on Fresno are accurate, this game is a pass. Important Fresno has been travelling like no other team so far this season. This is the second time this season that they are comming back toi the west coact after playing an Eastern time game. Tired ? Probably. Lean: None.


(2-1) PUR @ (2-1) ND -1

Notre Dame is ranked just one place better than Purdue according to my ratings. There is another team this week in this situation and it is Georgia, but so far this season, there haven't been many situations like this one where a slightly better home team is a small home favorite. The interesting thing is that the public simply love Purdue here and that is not a good sign for Purdue backers. While these small home faves have a 50% chance of covering overall, those who have less than 60% of support do cover more often and they are 4-1 ATS so far. Lean: ND -1


(1-3) HOU @ (3-1) ECU -11

Here is the first situation this week where the ranked team has a line that is not inflated at all. I have ECU ranked 40 places better and a home team with such a rating differential usually has a line that goes as low as -3.5 and as high as -21. ECU's -11 is as close as the average line as they come. The other ranked teams with this kind of differential were favored by 21 (Clemson, Ohio State). Overall, home teams ranked 20-40 places better are only 2-8 ATS ytd when favored by 7+. Lean: Houston +11


(3-0) WIS -6 @ (1-2) MICH

Wisconsin is a 27 places better ranked road team and that puts them in between two major groupes of teams. The ones that are 7+ favorites and usually cover and those that are 5.5- favorites that usually lose. This fact alone would make them a no-lean but with just over 70% of public on them, I have to take a closer look. Road faves with 68+ public support, ranked not more than 50 places better are 0-5 ATS. Some notables from this group: Fresno at Toledo, Northwestern at Duke and S.Florida @ Central Florida.Lean: Michigan +7 after buying 0.5

 

[w365]

(3-0) COL VS (2-1) FSU -6

The game will be played @ Jacksonville, Florida. Neutral site or a semi-home game for FSU. No data. Lean: None.



(1-2) TEN @ (2-1) AUB -6.5

Here is the second ranked team this week that doesn't have an inflated line AT ALL. For a home team ranked better by 20-40 places, the line should be close to 10 and Auburn is laying 6.5 only. These teams favored by 3-11 are only 6-15 ATS year-to-date and no other team on that list has had anything close to what Auburn is getting as the public support here. The closest ones have been Purdue against CMU (barely won the game without covering the spread) and WF against Ole Miss (once again barely won without covering the spread). The ranked teams in this group have been favored by at least 7 and mostly by double digits. They have a 0-5 ATS record in this spot. Lean: Tennessee +7 after buying 0.5



(3-1) MARS @ (1-2) WVA -14

This line went down from the initial -17 for a good reason. WVA is not as good as percieved and Marshall scared them twice in last three meetings in this series that is actually a renewed rivalery and Marshall's Bowl game.
Given the differential in ratings this line is where it should be but the fact is, home teams ranked 30-60 places better and laying TD or more, but not more than 17.5 are not a long term winning proposition. These teams are only 2-9 ATS if getting over 50% of public support and WVA is getting close to 65% right now. Lean: Marshall +14



(2-1) CIN -10.5 @ (2-2) AKR

With the current line of -10.5, Cincinnati is in a 'no data' spot right now. If this line moves to -11.5 or to under 10, I will update the matchup and the numbers, but with this line no team has an edge. Lean: None.


(2-1) ARK @ (3-0) TEX -27.5

Texas is ranked 57 places better than Arkansas and I have a strong feeling that this differential will be a lot higher at the end of the season. I believe that Texas is a lot better than what my current ratings show and Arkansas is probably a little bit worst than their current ranking. The key in this one is a very low public support for Texas, with just around 63% of public on them and that is the public reaction to Arkansas being a big name SEC school. In reality, they are probably one of the worst 3 SEC teams right now and Texas is as good as anyone in the Big 12. Home favorites of more than 21.5 pts, ranked 50-100 places better, with less than 70% of support are 7-0-1 ats so far this season. Lean: Texas-27.5

 

[jeff_tweedy]

(3-1) OHST -17.5 vs 4-0 (MIN)

Ohio State is ranked 38 places better than Minnesota. This line is very inflated, as there were only two other home teams ranked not more than 45 places better and favored by a similar number of points, and both of them failed to cover. The first one is Clemson, laying 21 against NCST and the second one was this same OHST team laying 21. It is a common thing for ranked teams to have an inflated line. Teams ranked 20-55 better and favored by 10.5-21 pts on the road are 3-10 ATS ytd. Lean: MIN +17.5

great posts w365...always look forward to them. however, Ohio St. is at home vs. Minnesota in this game, not on the road.

 

[METFAN]

THANK YOU FOR THIS INFO AND YOUR EFFORTS..HOPEFULLY THIS WEEK THEY PAN OUT..:toast:

 

[w365]

(2-2) NAV @ (3-0) WF -15.5


The line is exactly where it should be and no team has an edge with the current line. These home favorites of about 2 TD's that are ranked 55-75 places better are usually getting a lot of public money and it is the case here as well. Nothing unusual about this line. Lean: None


(2-2) BUF @ (2-2) CMU -7


I have CMU ranked 37 places better and these home favorites of close to a TD are at about 50% so far. The public is on CMU but we are not talking about an overwhelming majority here. The line looks to be just a little bit inflated but not too much to lean either way. Lean: None


(1-2) BG -3.5 @ (2-2) WYO


Bowling Green is in the same group of teams this week as Arkansas State, Wisconsin, Virginia, WMU. Small road fave, ranked some 30 places better than Wyoming. These teams are 6-15 ATS and with 67% on Bowling Green right now, this one looks like a trap. Favorites of less than 6 pts in this group are 1-6 ATS so far this season and all of them except Wisconsin (against Fresno) had 65-70% of public bets. Wisconsin was the only one with under 60% and the only one to get the cover. Lean: Wyoming +3.5



(0-3) UNT @ (2-2) RIC -17.5


The line is OK, the public support just a little bit higher than what's usuall for a 14-19 pts favorite ranked 50 places better and playing at home. Rice is just outside that group of teams in which we find WVA this week and if this line move big, up or down, I will update the numbers. Lean: None.


(2-1) COST @ (2-1) CAL -26.5

California is ranked 77 places better and these teams usually lay 18 to 27 points at home with 50-70% of public bets. California is getting a little bit less of action than average, but nothing significant there. Looking at all teams that have been in this situation YTD, the % of bets make no difference, as they remain a 50% proposition. Lean: None.



(3-1) ORE -21 @ (1-3) WAST


Oregon is ranked 82 places better and they are only the 10th road fave this season ranked 80+ places better. The record for the first 9 teams is 5-4 ATS overall, and the only real edge that can be found for this group is to fade those laying less than 2 TD's as they are 0-2 ATS. Oregon is laying a lot more than that. Lean: None.



(4-0) TCU @ (3-0) OKL -18


As expected, the number #2 team in the nation has an inflated line. My ratings show Oklahoma having only a small edge of 14 places. As strange as it may sound, those big home favorites of at least 11 points, ranked not more than 20 places better are perfect so far this season, going 7-0 ATS. The group includes USC against OHST, ORST against Hawaii, ASU against Stanford, FAU against UAB, PSU against ORST and so on. The only thing that scares me here is the public support for Oklahoma that is well over 70% now and no other team from that list has been close to what Oklahoma is getting. I will not touch this one and I can not declare it a lean despite the 7-0 ATS record because the public support of 70% is way to high compared to the other teams on this list. Lean: None.



(2-1) TROY @ (3-0) OKST -17


Being ranked 30 places better and laying this many points Oklahoma State is just outside that group where we have Oklahoma against TCU. There is no other team so far this season laying this many points while being ranked 23-40 places better at home, with the exception of Clemson and his -21 line against NCST (did not cover). One game tells me nothing and I can not make any decision on such a small sample. Lean: None.



(2-2) WKY @ (3-0) KKY -21


Kentucky is ranked 94 places better than WKY and teams ranked 70+ places better usually lay more than Kentucky's 21 points at home. Those who layed more than 21 are 13-8-1 ATS and those who layed less than 21.5 are 2-5 ATS. WKY bettors lost some of their initial value but even with 21 points it is a lean on them, since more than two thirds of bets are stil comming on Kentucky. Lean: WKY +21


(1-3) UAB @ (2-2) SCAR -24.5


S.Carolina is in the same group of teams this week as Kentucky, and while Kentucky is in that group that is 2-5 ATS, S.Carolina is laying more than 21 pts and they are in the subgroup that is 13-8-1 ATS. However, with their 62% of action so far they are not the most interesting team in that group, with a 50% chance of success. Lean: None.



(0-3) FIU @ (1-2) TOL -19.5


Toledo is just outside that group that was explained in my writeups on South Carolina and Kentucky, and they are in a 'no-man's land' with the current line and current public support. Home favorites ranked 50-80 places better are either small favorites of less than 14 or big favorites of 3 TD or more and Toledo just doesn't fiyt any of the two groups. Lean:None.

 

[AR_23]

Good picks. Interested on how you came to some of those statistics/leans

 

[w365]

great posts w365...always look forward to them. however, Ohio St. is at home vs. Minnesota in this game, not on the road.

it was a typo, the trend is accurate. gl this week !

 

[w365]

THANK YOU FOR THIS INFO AND YOUR EFFORTS..HOPEFULLY THIS WEEK THEY PAN OUT..:toast:

this has always been my best approach...too bad it needs some time to start picking winners because there is no data early in the season !

:toast:

 

[w365]

Good picks. Interested on how you came to some of those statistics/leans

keeping track of all of that for the past 4 years...the public support % are from 4 major books and also from wagerline (not a book). the ratings are my own...

not all the leans will be my plays. the lean is actually a game that i will take a closer look at. i will select the best leans and make them my plays.

 

[w365]

(1-3) MISST @ (3-0) LSU -24

LSU is ranked 94 places better than Mississippi State and the line is where it should be. With the current line and public support this one is a pass. Lean: None.

(4-0) SFL -8.5 @ (2-2) NCST

South Florida is favored by 8.5 and that is not a surprise. The line is inflated a point or two and there are two major reasons for that. S.Florida is a ranked team, and NCST is due for a letdown after the upset over ECU. If S.Florida was a major public team this week, they would be an automatic fade as they would fit into a 0-8 ATS group but since they have barely over 53% of public bets, they are not a fade material. Lean: None.


(4-0) ALA @ (4-0) GEO -6.5

Georgia is ranked 1 place better than Alabama. As I said in my writeup on the UND vs Purdue game, these are good bets if they are not public plays. These favorites are 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU and Georgia has one of the highest lines and definately the lowest public support of them all. The public likes the dog here and this is definately the public's dog of the week. Lean: Georgia -6.5


(3-1) V.T @ (3-0) NEB -7


Virginia Tech is ranked slightly better than Nebraska and that puts them in the same group as Virginia this week, a group that is 2-7 ATS ytd. As for the public support, they are getting about 40% of all bets and that is right at the average for these teams. Both teams far from impressive this season and the best thing would be to stay away. Having said that, the lean is: Nebraska -7.


(1-3) Idaho @ (0-3) SDST -11


San Diego State is ranked 50 places better and these home faves usually lay more than 11 points. And when they lay more than 9.5 and less than 14.5 they are 2-8 ATS. Over 70% of public bets are on SDSU currently and teams ranked 25-55 places better with over 64% of public support are 2-6 ATS. This will not be my official play but the lean is: Idaho +11


(1-3) NMX -3.5 @ (1-1) NMST


New Mexico is ranked 50 places better than New Mexico State and they are in the same group as WMU, ARKST that is 6-15 ATS year-to-date. They are actually the only road team so far this season ranked at least 50 places better that is favored by less than 7 points. The closest one was Oregon State ranked 47 places better than Stanford and laying 3 points that lost outright.
With 63% of public bets on New Mexico and their starting QB out for the season the lean is: New Mexico State +3.5



(2-1) ILLI @ (4-0) PSU -15


Hard to say if this line is inflated as both teams are ranked and Illinois should not be ranked at all. Also very hard to say how good PSU really is as they haven't played a half decent team yet. PSU is ranked 58 places better and the line is where it should be. They are getting far less of bets than in previous weeks and that is a sign that the line is pretty accurate at this point. Lean: None.



(1-2) CFL -5 @ (0-3) UTEP


Central Florida is yet another team in that 6-15 ATS group that also includes ARKST, New Mexico, WMU... this week. As for the public support, they are getting plenty, maybe even too much for a 1-2 team ranked only 48 places better than their opponent. But when you have a favorite laying a very short number against a winless team, that's the % of bets you'll get 9 out of 10 times. Lean: UTEP +5


(1-2) NEV @ (3-1) UNLV -4


Very short number for a team ranked 30 places better, playing at home, after two straight wins against major conference opponents. Actually there have been 11 other small home faves laying less than a TD while being ranked 10-30 places better and they went 3-8 ATS. UNLV is getting more than 60% of action right now and that tells us that they have been noticed after their wins over IOST and ARST. Lean: Nevada +4




(2-2) STA @ (0-3) WAS -3.5

Stanford is in the same group of teams as UCONN this week (12-1 ATS) but we have lost a lot of value since the opening line is not avaiable any more. They are ranked 5 places better than Washington and Washington is laying just what represents the home field advantage in college football (3.5) and that tells me that these two teams are even. Lean: Stanford +3.5



(2-2) SJST @ (1-2) HAW -3

I don't know how, but my ratings show that Hawaii are ranked 26 places better than SJST. I don't believe in that right now and I expect this to change later this season. Anyways, Hawaii as a small home favorite are in the same group of teams as UNLV and Auburn that is 6-15 and 3-8 ATS and the only thing that I don't like about this one is that Hawaii are not getting the public support that they are normally getting when playing on the road. Lean: SJS +3