Boston Streak Must End Right? - PLEASE VOTE

[jaypaw]

PLEASE READ BELOW AND VOTE

Considering this:

Rangers +118
Rangers -1.5 +195

But I'll make my decision once you people vote -



After the yanks sweep I expected the sox to drop at least 1 game vs tampa...

and Ive been betting consistently the ML as well as the reverse points on tampa in 3 of their last 4 games vs boston. Needless to say it has earned me 6 straight losses.

Now the sox go to Texas and Arroyo their now #6 starter will go against the #4 in the rangers rotation.

In Drese's 3 outings he has earned one win vs seattle and 2 no decisions (seattle and oakland) allowing 3 runs in his win, and only 2 and 0 respectively in the 2 no decision games.

Now he faces an offense that is a step up from Seattle and oakland, but a pitcher who has given up 4 runs (toronto), 2 runs (vs baltimore in .1 innings...), 4 runs (NY), and 2 runs (@ny) in each of his starts respectively.


Long story short - I am considering yet again - a bet against the sox here, however it hasnt been working too good. I've gone from 10-1 to 10-11 over the past few days -


HELP PLEASE VOTE

[This message was edited by Jaypaw on April 30, 2004 at 09:39 PM.]

 

[BlackampGold]

Jaypaw - I could be wrong of course but the final of this game may look like a Cowboys/Patriots final score. Over is the play for me. I try to avoid playing the run-line, especially with the home team. Texas should hammer Arroyo but if he keeps them in the game, Boston bullpen has an edge and could be the difference. I am sure I did not make your decision any easier but good luck!

 

[jaypaw]

great point about the over

I must say that I still have doubts about the bullpen of the sox...

I know this isnt a popular opinion with the way foulke has been pitching

but if you leave any one of those other guys in for longer than an inning or so I content that more often than not they will get rocked.

They were off to a terrible start initially and it has been their starting pitching that has allowed the relief crew to operate at maximum efficiency - and to their credit they have dont the job

however like I said embree timlin williamson even - all these guys are scary to me and even if arroyo makes it 5 innings allowing less runs than he has - this bullpen is not invincible and they are very much
"due" for a letdown...

anyway thanks for the input I really appreciate it.

 

[Kapusta]

Jaypaw-I agree with B&G 14-10 final. I was close to vote you as a Jerk, being the Boston fan that I am, wouldn't touch this game.

 

[jaypaw]

the vote was to call me a jerk OFF

I know how youd vote if it said I was a jerk

Thanks for the input I may go with the poll results

GL

 

[jaypaw]

taking the -1.5 on texas at +200


not bad against bostons #5 starter IMO

 

[fivedoorsdown]

dont go against red sox till after allstar break

 

[golfingarkansas]

JAYPAW, I THINK YOUR BELOVED RED SOX ARE TO STRONG FOR VERY OVER-ACHIEVING RANGER TEAM! A SIX STREAK IS VERY EASY AND I'M BETTING RED SOX
UNTIL THEY BREAK IT! A DUE BET IS A WRONG BET AND THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.....YOUR HEART IS
WITH THE SOX AND THE MONEY IS WITH DOUBLE UP CHASE THAT'S WHY YOU WANT AN OPINION...NO REAL
CAPPER CAN SAY THE RANGERS SHOULD BEAT SOX COMING FROM KC WITH 3 IN NINTH,,BOTH HAVE TRAVELED. GOOD LUCK GA

 

[jaypaw]

I dunno - my theory is clear - that the sox pen has been overacheiving and they cant keep it up forever...

after the allstart break the sox should be better with nomar and nixon back

plus by then they will have had the pen letdown that I expect to come soon


I am not doubling up to chase actually - if you look at my bets you'll see that since the start Ive been betting both the ML and the points - and it worked damn well up to now - so please dont accuse me of chasing - I'm actually posting this poll to see if people can convince me NOT to continue betting the way I am with 2 on one game - since I am rather convinced that its not the best to keep it up...

thus the 10-11 record yet still somewhat comfortably into the plus



but I suppose if I worry about a major losing streak I should start cutting back and just betting just the points or the ML

anyway thanks for the input... if anyone else has any thought at all on the issue I would really appreciate it.

 

[golfingarkansas]

IM CLEARER KNOW JAY, I UNDERSTAND YOUR CONCERN
WITH THE BULLPEN AND SEE YOUR STATEGY BETTER
AFTER I READ IT ONE MORE TIME! I GUESS MY ANGLE
WAS MORE TO DO WITH THIS YOUNG RANGER TEAM AND
YOU COMPARE IT TO TEXAS BESIDES SORIANO...YOU
DON'T EVEN SEE HOW THE BULL PEN WILL COME IN TO
PLAY IN THIS SERIES...I THINK BOSTON WILL GET TO
16 FIRST AND YOU GOTTA REMEMBER THEY MAY PUNISH
TEXAS TONIGHT OVER A-ROD

 

[golfingarkansas]

GREAT LUCK WITH

 

[jaypaw]

thanks man


keep voting guys


Im getting trigger happy and thinking about plugging in the ML before they "come off the gate"

 

[jaypaw]

damn


last time I do this


texas ML +117 (bodog)

 

[Menses]

I think it was Kapusta who mentioned that 1 of the things that it is wise not to do is go against a streak of any kind 6 or 7 games in...and I tend to agree with that assessment. I get burned everytime and this season I have saved money by following that rule but with that being said....

Texas is in double digit wins right now, and arroyo will never get my money, Im sorry but that kind of juice is too good to pass up...The Cubs and the Mariners are the main entree tonight but the rangers are definiely a side order...

 

[jaypaw]

thanks for the input menses

Win or lose tonight I'm gonna change my style back to betting just one per team per game - probably mostly with the points but I'll have to look into it some more


I know ive heard the discussion around here recently but does anyone know off the top of their head whether or not it pays over time to take the ML rather than the points ??