BoSox NBA Season Long Thread 2024-2025

[BoSox04]

Celtics/Knicks over 211.5 (-110), 1*

Adding the over as I think there will be some regression in the positive direction on the Celtics outside shots. I also expect them to eliminate some of the bad threes and go to the hoop more, which will benefit them offensively. Also, if Towns can stop fouling everyone in sight and play a normal allotment of minutes, that will help them offensively and hurt them defensively.

For those of you thinking, how does he like Pritchard under but the game over. I think Pritchard will play less now that Holiday is healthy and the Celtics won’t have to go small with no Porzingis. While Pritchard had 13 in game one, he has been pretty ordinary this postseason overall. I like his teammates to improve off their last performance while he takes a step back.

 

[BoSox04]

Yesterday: 0-3/YTD: 285-267, -10.77

May 8th

Warriors Team Total under 95.5 (-112), 1*

GL

 

[BoSox04]

Yesterday: 1-0/YTD: 286-267, -9.77

May 9th

Ty Jerome under 3.5 assists (-105), 1*

While I would like to bet Cleveland, I don’t know if I want to lay 6+ on the road when three guys are making their return to the lineup. A much more prudent approach is to bet against someone whose minutes will be decreasing. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Nuggets +6 (-105), 1*

I considered betting Cleveland, not at this number. I need them to win tonight. I have over 5.5 games in this series. Who would have thought I would be sweating two wins from the Cavs. Also, if they win tonight and emerge unscathed on the injury front, I will look to bet them to win the series if they are down 2-1. I like my prop angle with Jerome and I’ll pass on the game otherwise.

On the Denver front, this is the spread currently at one prominent sportsbook. If you can get +6 or better, I think that’s a great number. I might even sprinkle on the ML. I thought Denver was going to win 2-3 games in this series and this could be number two right here.

GL

 

[BoSox04]

Yesterday: 2–0/YTD: 288-267, -7.77

May 10th

Celtics/Knicks over 208 (-110), 1*

I think the Celtics are going to shoot much better in one or both of these games in New York. They have been excellent on the road all year. They are going to have that vintage Celtics game where they make 15-20+ threes and their offense is clicking. If this game goes over, that correlates with the Celtics covering the spread in my opinion. If you think the Celtics are going to shoot 25% from three again today and falter late, then you should probably be on the under or at least the Knicks. We saw Cleveland respond in game three with their backs against the wall. I expect the same response from Boston and could see myself adding them to my card. I will certainly have an update later for the Warriors game at the very least. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Cavaliers to win series (-150), 1*

I saw what I needed to see last night. I think the Cavs will win tomorrow. Getting Mobley back was huge. Indiana surprised them in game one and Cleveland choked despite being shorthanded in game two. They looked very comfortable last night on the road. Even if I’m wrong and the Pacers win game 4, I still strongly believe Cleveland can win that series. They would go home and win game five and then all the pressure would be on the Pacers to close things out in game six. As I mentioned in the prior post, I could see the Cavs and Celtics series mirroring each other. Cleveland found their game last night and looked like themselves. They had their full squad, starting hitting outside shots and the Pacers had no chance. I guess we will know by the end of tomorrow how right I was about this.

 

[BoSox04]

Yesterday: 0-0-1/YTD: 288-267, -7.77

May 11th

Thunder & Cavs ML parlay (+111), 1*

Gross push on the Celtics over. I was right about them and the over being correlated. Unfortunately, the two teams combined for exactly 42 points in the fourth and I ended up with a push. I actually felt relieved based on how we ended up getting to the push if you watched the end of that game. Anyway, this is a must win game for the Thunder. While I did bet Denver +2.5 games in the series, there’s no question about who is the more talented team. OKC’s defense is really good. What kept Denver in the game was the Thunder’s offensive woes. I expect some improvement on that front from the Thunder. If they lose this game, I think they are done. I do not see that young team with no playoff mettle picking themselves up off the mat and beating Denver three straight. After a disappointing second round exit last year, the Thunder now how important this game is and the level they need to play at to win.

The Cavs are pretty self explanatory. I bet them yesterday to win the series. I expect them to win game 4 in order to make that happen. They should be up 2-1 in this series. They showed the difference in talent between the two teams in game 3, but also in game 2. The Cavs should have won convincingly despite being without Garland, Mobley and Hunter. I think they win their second straight game today.

GL

 

[BoSox04]

Shae Gilgeous Alexander under 7.5 assists (-105), 1*

 

[BoSox04]

Yesterday: 1-1/YTD: 289-268, -7.77

May 12th

Julius Randle under 5.5 assists (+105), 1*

I have had a good read on the assists market recently and I think there is some value here. I will post any other bets I have in the next 30 min.

 

[BoSox04]

Celtics/Knicks over 208.5 (-110), 1*
Wolves -5 (-112), 1*

I have let my feelings on this series be known repeatedly. Minnesota has even more urgency to wrap this series up in five before Steph has a chance to return. Now that you can get -5 on Minnesota, that’s a buy point for me.

As for the Knicks game, I’m going to pass. I know Boston is the better team. With that said, this is as much of a must win game for the Knicks as it is for the Celtics. If the Knicks lose two straight at home and this series is 2-2, they are done. They need to capitalize on the fact that they stole two games in Boston by winning a home game. Otherwise, Boston has home court advantage back and this thing is over in six. The Knicks need to have real confidence that they can beat Boston, not luck into a couple wins because Boston shot 25% from three. I think the Knicks will be in this game for most of it and I don’t want to have to sweat out the spread at the end. I’m going to bet the over and not worry about the winner. I expect Boston to win, but I think this will be tight. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Yesterday: 3-0/YTD: 292-268, -4.72

May 13th

Tyrese Haliburton over 2.5 threes (+125), 1*
SGA under 7.5 assists (+100), 1*

GL

 

[indiana]

B. Sox......nicely done (Mon.) buddy....
BOL tonight......indy

 

[BoSox04]

Nuggets +10 (-110), 1*

 

[BoSox04]

Yesterday: 3-0/YTD: 295-268, -1.47

May 14th

Celtics -5 (-110), 1*
Gary Payton Jr. under 1.5 assists (-150), 1*

GL

 

[BoSox04]

Yesterday: 2-0/YTD: 297-268, +0.53

May 15th

Michael Porter Jr. over 9.5 points (-125), 1*

MPJ is exactly the type of role player I am looking to target tonight. In game five, he struggled massively and only mustered up two points. This is an excellent bounce back spot for him in a must-win game. Role players often perform better at home where they are comfortable. Jokic had a monster game five, I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees more double teams. That will open up more opportunities for his teammates including Porter. Lastly, Murray has an illness which could cause him to play fewer minutes. We want Porter on the court and we want him to have good looks at the basket. Ten points is very gettable. I’m on a 12-1-1 run to get back to profitability. Let’s keep it going tonight. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Yesterday: 1-0/YTD: 298-268, +1.53

May 16th

Knicks ML (-142), 1*

9 in a row for me. 13-1-1 run. This feels like a must win game for the Knicks tonight even though they are up 3-2 in the series. They do not want to go back to Boston for game 7. The Celtics would have so much confidence if they can win at MSG without Tatum. I don’t think the Knicks are going to run away from Boston, I think we get a game similar to game 4 where the Knicks were just a little better that day. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Today: 1-0/YTD: 299-268, +2.53

 

[BoSox04]

May 18th

Isaiah Hartenstein over 2.5 assists (-120), 1*

No opinion on the side or total here. I really don’t have a feel one way or the other. If I had to bet the side, I would lay the Thunder. Let’s see if I can keep this run going for another day. Looking to make it 11 in a row. GL

 

[BoSox04]

Today: 0-1/YTD: 299-269, +1.33

Streak ends at ten straight. Still on a 14-2-1 run over my last 17. No complaints here. Thunder/Wolves series starts Tuesday, Knicks/Pacers starts Wednesday. I think I will have a future bet on both series. I will post those tomorrow as well as update my record with my futures from round two.

 

[BoSox04]

Futures

Knicks to win series (-140), 1*
Timberwolves +1.5 games (+125), 1*
Timberwolves/Thunder over 5.5 games played (-135), 1*

GL