Bosox lineup for tonight???

[jaypaw]

I havent been keeping up much but I saw this lineup and thought id look into it furher...

No nixon no nomar and no pokey with Mueller at 2nd, and BELLHORN at short.

Just seemed odd to me.


J. Damon cf
M. Bellhorn ss
D. Ortiz dh
M. Ramirez lf
J. Varitek c
K. Youkilis 3b
K. Millar 1b
B. Mueller 2b
G. Kapler rf

Should be interesting

 

[WorldNumberOne]

i think pedro outta welcome back garcia to the american league with one right between the shoulder blades.

just for fun ..

 

[scarab]

pedro should worry about getting someone out....

 

[jaypaw]

I wish pedro drilled that guy he is such a cock

I am thinking that the sox will lose at least one of the two today...

Any thoughts guys??

Castillo starting the early game today - should be a good time to hop in on the Os.

 

[jaypaw]

YTD 52-62 +19.15

Taking a shot today against frankie C

Baltimore +125

 

[truelyhandicapping]

like balt first game,


also like taking the bosox -1- in both games, figuring they will one by 2 runs. hopefully.

then you are on the plus side.

good luck

 

[jaypaw]

good idea

 

[jaypaw]

if you take both balt +125 and boston -1.5 +145 then you net either +.25 or +.45 depending on who wins - assuming that if the bosox win they win by 2.

Not bad actually - gives you an almost gaurenteed + with either outcome...

 

[jaypaw]

Im taking the lone shot on the Os though

Castillo should get reamed by this Os lineup

and with pokey out I cant see the sox D being a factor

 

[truelyhandicapping]

taking balt both games could be a good idea too.

is wakefield throwing one or not.

maybe take the o's -1- both games,and bosox -1- both games, how would that be.

 

[jaypaw]

holy shit

-1.5 +145 sox
and -1.5 +239 balt...

that is unbeatable!!!

I wonder what the % of games teams win by more than 1? Someone must have that stat

still it would be either +.45 or +1.39 which is an awesome idea over time IMO

 

[jaypaw]

wake is pitching the 2nd game

 

[truelyhandicapping]

i worked on that for awhile,

it wasn't really favorable, but i didn't have the whole season of run lines, alt run lines.


take the % of one run games and come out with a % that the run lines would have to pay to be successful, but still need the actual lines.

good luck tonight.

here is some info for yo u jaypaw

posted July 22, 2004 10:05 AM
Arizona has 4 wins / 26 losses *(i have had them the last 8 i think, besides the point)

1 win was as fav, 3 dog wins

9 losses as a fav.


less fighting/ more capping on this forum and maybe this info could of been helpful. could of helped me.

 

[jaypaw]

Someone must know what % of the time winners do their winning by more than 1

come on people

 

[truelyhandicapping]

i bet 4-1 that no cares jaypaw,

people are looking for others to do all the work here, and then reap the rewards.

i'm still waiting fo rsomeone to reply to my lefty vs lefty matchup that i know is over 60% unders, but no one hs replied.

glad i found it somewhere else, grow old here.

good luck.

i know king0818 has the alt runs line printed out he said, maybe getting them from him maybe an option. i would figure it out, but need all the info.

 

[jaypaw]

my only question is how many games have been won this year and maybe last year (or further back if possible) by one run - and how many have been won by more than one run.


I'll try to see what I can get for results and figure it out

 

[truelyhandicapping]

their should be a listing of every team in one run games and their record.

add up all teams/ get your total and divide by 2. that will tell you how many games by one run, and then add up total games for the season schedule.
take the %. IM SURE YOU KNOW HOW TO DO THIS, JUST MENTIONED IT.

i would help but handicapping a few games today.

might have a big play or two

 

[jaypaw]

What I just did was I found a list of the last 100 or so games on sportsline.com and pasted it into excel

I sorted by margin of victory and found that out of the last 102 games played in MLB:

77 of the games were won by 2 or more runs
and
25 of the games were won by less than 2 runs.



FYI

 

[WorldNumberOne]

not so sure it is an awesome idea jay .

their were 8 one run games last night.

seems like alot of risk for small payback.

your example above at $200.00 per would be a risk of $ 400.00 to POSSIBLY make either $90.00 or $278.00

take your time..

 

[truelyhandicapping]

HEY KING,

BY CHANCE DO YOU HAVE THE ALT RUN LINES AND RUN LINES FOR THE WHOLE SEASON.

IF YOU HAVE THEM I WOULD LOVE TO GET THEM, EITHER BY EMAIL OR SOMETHING. AT NO EXPENSE TO YOU.

LET ME KNOW.

STOPPED DOING THE ALT RUN LINE, NOT WORTH THE PENNIES YOU WIN.