BOS/TBAY ALCS Preview

[barman]

Various Fun Facts to follow

BOSTON Away vs AL Teams that finished above .500

2008 18-28
2007 17-25

TBAY Home vs AL Teams that finished above .500

2008 32-13

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BOSTON Home vs AL Teams that finished above .500

2008 26-19
2007 28-16

TBAY Away vs AL Teams that finished above .500

2008 13-26

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Overall vs AL Teams that finished above .500

BOS (past 2 seasons) 89-88
TBAY (2008) 45-39

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More so than many H2H series in recent years, this one could well play out in strong favor to the Home team.

Both teams are in strong need of grabbing at least one road win.

Given that the Rays get three shots at that road win, they could seize control by pulling a sweep in the first two games and then getting one win in Beantown.

Conversely, if the Sox pulled one of the first two, but gave one back in Beantown, we'd have the strong Rays at home for final two.

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Nothing particularly shocking in previewing this series.

Big question is health of Josh Beckett. But regardless of how he does in Game 3, he would then have to come back for Game 6 or even Game 7 in St Petersburg - a very daunting challenge unless he's 100%

Rays quite a bit stronger power wise vs RHP, which is helpful since John Lester can only start two games.

Rays a much stronger bullpen at Home (2.93) compared to Boston road pen (4.35)

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Rays have lost only three times at Home in 18 starts by Jimmy Shields

DiceK has worked only 43 IP Away vs teams with winning records, but did maintain a 3.35 over that span

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[barman]

WATCH OUT FOR


Rays After a 2+ run loss

If playing at Home 17-3
If playing Away 11-14
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TBAY After Scoring 2 or less runs

30-11

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BOS After Scoring 2 or less runs

21-14

The previous two stats suggest a trend that if Rays get snuffed in a game, they bounce back. While if Sox get snuffed, they have a 40% chance of losing next game as well.

 

[redus2]

great info. I think if the Rays can win game one and are not intimidated they look mighty tempting @ +135

 

[thesccrguy15]

I'll be taking the BoSox. I think they are a more complete team and have been there before. I also like their pitching more. I'm not backing this up with any facts, it's simply my opinion.

 

[artiesliver]

Great info B'man. Thanks. Had a few glasses of wine, so I will need to revisit by Friday before stepping up to the plate. Cheers!

 

[lifexpired]

rays in 6.

 

[w8lifterguy]

This series will all fall on how pitching matches up. If Beckett is ineffective Red Sox will have a hard time. Same goes for Rays and Kazmir, his PC gets him in trouble. Believe David Price is the wildcard in series. Rate the bats even, difference maker is Upton for Rays and Bay for Red Sox. Benches are equal and Pens are equal with slight edge to Red Sox w/Papelbon closing.
Classic 7 game series with Red Sox on experience.

 

[parlayin]

Stats are interesting, but not sure how much predictive value they have for the baseball playoffs. Postseason tends to be a whole different animal. Pretty sure Cubs had a fair amount of season-long stats in their favor as well. I think a lot will depend on how the Rays respond in pressure situations, e.g. getting 2-out hits with RISP. We've seen the BoSox come through time and time again over recent years in times of adversity, and the Rays are still unproven for all intents and purposes. That being said, I'm rooting for you to get a title down there, Steve - you deserve it

 

[barman]

Thanks for feedback, fellas, especially the long distance NoCal chip in.

No one has mentioned the clearly superior edge for Rays in both defense and team speed.

TBay has five guys in lineup vs RHP that can steal and they will be facing the below average Varitek.

Rays both IF and OF defense is air tight now that CCrawford has returned to active duty.

Best way for Sox to get over is via the long ball and they are certainly capable of that.

Will be very startled to see Sox get a win without the aid of at least 2+ runs brought in by the tater.

 

[Coaster]

I think Rays run 'em outta the park.
Just gotta get men on!