Bookies fear Cubs

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BOOKIES FEAR CUBS 10/01/03 - Stephen Nover

Nevada bookmakers view the Chicago Cubs like a long dormant volcano possibly ready to finally erupt.

If the Cubs were to finally capture the World Series, Nevada's hotels would lose millions. That’s big news, since some state sports books haven't lost on their baseball futures since 1991.

That was the worst baseball year ever for Nevada sports books. When the Minnesota Twins beat the Atlanta Braves in ’91, Nevada books lost about $15 million. Both the Twins and Braves opened in the 100/1 to 150/1 range that season.

"I wouldn't say it's as bad as the year the Braves and Twins met in the World Series," Stardust race and sports book director Bob Scucci said about the jeopardy his book has on the Cubs. "But it would rank right up there as one of the worst years in baseball."

The Stardust opened the Cubs 50/1 to win the World Series this season. This is extremely generous by Las Vegas standards. Nevada bookmakers have been reluctant to open all but the worst teams at any kind of high odds since getting burned on that '91 World Series.

Bookmakers fear the Cubs more than any other team on the baseball future book. Every year, Nevada hotels write more future book tickets on the Cubs than any other team.

"Most don't care what the price is, they just want to have a ticket on the Cubs," Scucci said. "We know we're going to get money on them. So any year they win, we know we're going to end up losing."

Bookmakers have been dodging bullets on the Cubs since 1908. You would think bettors would get discouraged. Not Cubs fans, though. Just why do the sports books get so much money bet on the Cubs year after year?

"Chicago has always been a great baseball town," Scucci said. "That was the initial reason. Then when WGN picked them up and cable TV erupted in the '70s and '80s, it brought the Cubs into every house.

"Even if you didn't live in Chicago you became a Cubs fan because so many Cubs games were being televised. People also love to root for the underdog. And who better to root for than a team that hasn't won in close to 100 years."

It's not just the Cubs. The Minnesota Twins are also a loser for some Las Vegas hotels. The Twins also draw huge future book money ever year. The Stardust opened Minnesota 15/1.

"We market a great deal to Wisconsin and Minnesota," Scucci said. "A lot of our customers are from the Great Lakes area. So we always have Twins and Vikings money."

Nevada bookmakers aren't worried about the Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees because they opened at very low odds. Scucci said the Stardust has never lost on its baseball future book whenever the Yankees have captured the championship.

The Florida Marlins could hurt a few places. That’s not because they're any kind of public team, but just by being such a long shot. Oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent the Marlins out at 75/1 at the start of the season.

Most hotels are fine on the Boston Red Sox. The Stardust, for instance, opened Boston at 12/1. The Red Sox, unlike the Cubs, are far more popular on the East Coast than in the Midwest and West Coast.

"They seem to just have a regional fan base," Scucci said of the Red Sox. "If you're from Massachusetts, you're a Red Sox fan. But, unlike the Braves and Cubs who have huge followings, there's not a lot of Red Sox fans scattered around the country.

"If they (the Red Sox) win it, it's not nearly as bad as if the Cubs win it."
 

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Cubs have won one game, and they can't hit and have no team speed. Yeah, they could win it all but they have a LONG way to go!
 

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The real question here is given Vegas' wish do they have any power to effect their wishes. After that call in the 8th inning last night ya gotta wonder a little.

The Cubs hope is that they have 2 of the 3 best pitchers in the NL playoffs (Schmidt, Prior, Wood) and in the AL I'd probably put only Pedro in that group. Cubs are the only team with a pair of true aces. Realize that the Cubs could potentially win the World Series while winning ONLY games started by Wood and Prior. Playoffs are a very different animal from the reg season.
 

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Hopefully cubs win it all and the books pay the players
applaudit.gif
 

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D2: I think you may want to add Hudson to the playoff pitchers that are aces! Santana showed you yesterday how good he is, Mussina is gold in the AL. The NL a few I would add, Beckett, Willis, Ortiz and don't forget Smoltz, he makes it an 8 inning game!
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>It's not just the Cubs. The Minnesota Twins are also a loser for some Las Vegas hotels. The Twins also draw huge future book money ever year. The Stardust opened Minnesota 15/1.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yeesh, I got the Twins at 17-1 AFTER THE SEASON
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by eric17:
D2: I think you may want to add Hudson to the playoff pitchers that are aces! Santana showed you yesterday how good he is, Mussina is gold in the AL. The NL a few I would add, Beckett, Willis, Ortiz and don't forget Smoltz, he makes it an 8 inning game!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Hudson, maybe. The others, no. Beckett, Willis, Ortiz I would put a notch below Schmidt, Prior, Wood. And Smoltz? What, he's lucky if he pitches 4 innings in a 7 game series -- an ace may pitch 27! Particularly in the playoffs, I'll take an ace over a closer any day of the week.
 

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"After that call in the 8th inning last night ya gotta wonder a little."

Come on, D2, that was a close play - I wasn't happy either, but I'm not wondering one bit. I'm more interested, however, in wondering whether some of the Cubs hitters may have been paid off not to get clutch hits when they really needed them, and that Kerry may be the only really clean one on the team.

icon_wink.gif


p.s. Bad calls happen all the time - they just get magnified in the playoffs
 

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With the 'huge' handle at the Las Vegas pseudo-sportsbooks, we could be talking those multi-billion dollar corporations losing 30 or 40 G's! Always laugh at Casinos' press releases on how they were hurt by one team or another.
Didn't anybody bet on the other teams this year? Nobody bet the Yankees(at even money at Leroy's) this year? Last I checked only one team can win the World Series and on the ridiculously low future odds at LV casinos how could they lose.
 

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Hey, a guy's allowed to wonder sometimes. Just that the more I look at the call the more it looks like the ump made the call before the play even finished. Looked to me like he had his mind made up on the call before it was decided. I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'.

And ya don't have to pay K-Gonz anything to choke, he gladly does it for free.
icon_wink.gif
 

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