Bookie Report Bowl Systems

[bookiereport]

I have used these over the years and reposting as requested along with some more info that may help you.
Bowl Systems that over the years are proven winners...mostly because you are going against the $$$ in these games. If someone wants to please determine what teams fit these systems it would be a great help to everyone involved...Thanks...BTW some of these systems will have plays on both sides...usually when a teams fits several systems it hits at a very high rate

Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

Bet the team with the worst season record if a dog

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams
Bet on A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team

Bet on A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team

Play underdogs with higher Sagarin strength-of-schedule ratings than their opponents

Play on Higher ranked Sagarin teams that are dogs

Play underdogs of 7.5 or more points in December Bowls

Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf

Bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:

PLAY ON Favs of 3.5 or less

PLAY THE OVER with Totals of 63.5 or higher

Bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:

PLAY ON Dogs of 4 points or more
Bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:

PLAY ON Favs in LOWER TIER Bowl games
PLAY AGAINST MAC teams....they are 1-9-1 ATS L11
PLAY ON: Dogs in bowl games that won the previous year vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last yearPlay on a non-New Year's Day bowl team that are 15' point + dogs.
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs

 

[Cantpickem]

Thanks

 

[Saints2016]

Thanks for posting!

 

[SuckerNoMore]

Great info, ...thanks for posting. Just want you to know also, your "need" influence 40% of my decision which sides I pick. When a team I like match with your need, I double my original wager. They are mostly winner by a high %. Thanks!

 

[Redtagboys]

BUMP... Ohio tonight? also Colorado if spread is 7.5?

 

[Skeeter123]

BUMP... Ohio tonight? also Colorado if spread is 7.5?

I'm pretty sure this is for Bowl games...not conference champ games.

 

[XSPower]

popcorn-eatinggif

 

[Redtagboys]

I'm pretty sure this is for Bowl games...not conference champ games.

Apologies!! still good to bump to remember this for upcoming bowl games

 

[dabigdawg3]

I have used these over the years and reposting as requested along with some more info that may help you.
Bowl Systems that over the years are proven winners...mostly because you are going against the $$$ in these games. If someone wants to please determine what teams fit these systems it would be a great help to everyone involved...Thanks...BTW some of these systems will have plays on both sides...usually when a teams fits several systems it hits at a very high rate

Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

Bet the team with the worst season record if a dog

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams
Bet on A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team

Bet on A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team

Play underdogs with higher Sagarin strength-of-schedule ratings than their opponents

Play on Higher ranked Sagarin teams that are dogs

Play underdogs of 7.5 or more points in December Bowls

Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf

Bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:

PLAY ON Favs of 3.5 or less

PLAY THE OVER with Totals of 63.5 or higher

Bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:

PLAY ON Dogs of 4 points or more
Bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:

PLAY ON Favs in LOWER TIER Bowl games
PLAY AGAINST MAC teams....they are 1-9-1 ATS L11
PLAY ON: Dogs in bowl games that won the previous year vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last yearPlay on a non-New Year's Day bowl team that are 15' point + dogs.
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs

Great post bookie......THANK YOU!

 

[Biz]

Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record: This has not been the case recently. Last 10 years below. Its actually been better to play the favorite.

D and game type = BG and WP = o:WP and season >= 2007
SU: 19-50-0 (-6.97, 27.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 29-40-0 (-1.52, 42.0%) avg line: 5.4 +6: 45-23-1 (66.2%) -6: 15-52-2 (22.4%) +10: 48-18-3 (72.7%) -10: 11-57-1 (16.2%) O/U: 35-34-0 (-1.60, 50.7%) avg total: 57.8 +6: 23-46-0 (33.3%) -6: 38-31-0 (55.1%) +10: 21-47-1 (30.9%) -10: 45-24-0 (65.2%)

Bet the team with the worst season record if a dog: No edge since 2007. Lots of OVERS the last 3 years tho.

D and game type = BG and WP < o:WP and season >= 2007
SU: 53-89-0 (-5.97, 37.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 71-68-3 (0.21, 51.1%) avg line: 6.2 +6: 94-47-1 (66.7%) -6: 49-92-1 (34.8%) +10: 102-40-0 (71.8%) -10: 31-108-3 (22.3%) O/U: 64-76-2 (-0.98, 45.7%) avg total: 56.6 +6: 46-94-2 (32.9%) -6: 88-54-0 (62.0%) +10: 32-109-1 (22.7%) -10: 99-42-1 (70.2%)

D and game type = BG and WP < o:WP and season >= 2014
SU: 11-20-0 (-8.87, 35.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 13-18-0 (-3.84, 41.9%) avg line: 5.0 +6: 17-14-0 (54.8%) -6: 9-21-1 (30.0%) +10: 19-12-0 (61.3%) -10: 7-24-0 (22.6%) O/U: 21-10-0 (7.45, 67.7%) avg total: 57.4 +6: 16-14-1 (53.3%) -6: 26-5-0 (83.9%) +10: 13-18-0 (41.9%) -10: 27-3-1 (90.0%)

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams: Slight edge, OVERS been good.

D and game type = BG and rank < o:rank and season >= 2007 SU: 6-4-0 (-4.60, 60.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 6-4-0 (0.00, 60.0%) avg line: 4.6 +6: 7-3-0 (70.0%) -6: 5-5-0 (50.0%) +10: 7-3-0 (70.0%) -10: 3-6-1 (33.3%) O/U: 7-2-1 (5.80, 77.8%) avg total: 55.2 +6: 6-4-0 (60.0%) -6: 9-1-0 (90.0%) +10: 5-5-0 (50.0%) -10: 9-1-0 (90.0%)

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams: No edge but another with OVERS doing well

F and game type = BG and rank < o:rank and season >= 2007
SU: 18-10-0 (6.46, 64.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 14-13-1 (0.05, 51.9%) avg line: -6.4 +6: 18-9-1 (66.7%) -6: 10-18-0 (35.7%) +10: 21-7-0 (75.0%) -10: 7-21-0 (25.0%) O/U: 18-10-0 (4.41, 64.3%) avg total: 61.5 +6: 14-13-1 (51.9%) -6: 19-9-0 (67.9%) +10: 10-18-0 (35.7%) -10: 22-5-1 (81.5%)

Bet on A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team: Not much here

D and game type = BG and rank is None and o:rank > 0 and season >= 2007
SU: 6-24-0 (-9.73, 20.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 13-17-0 (-2.42, 43.3%) avg line: 7.3 +6: 19-11-0 (63.3%) -6: 7-23-0 (23.3%) +10: 21-9-0 (70.0%) -10: 5-25-0 (16.7%) O/U: 13-16-1 (-1.12, 44.8%) avg total: 58.4 +6: 8-21-1 (27.6%) -6: 19-11-0 (63.3%) +10: 5-24-1 (17.2%) -10: 21-9-0 (70.0%)

Bet on A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team: Not many games

F and game type = BG and rank is None and o:rank > 0 and season >= 2007
SU: 4-3-0 (3.57, 57.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 4-3-0 (-2.86, 57.1%) avg line: -6.4 +6: 5-2-0 (71.4%) -6: 2-4-1 (33.3%) +10: 5-2-0 (71.4%) -10: 2-5-0 (28.6%) O/U: 2-5-0 (-5.29, 28.6%) avg total: 54.9 +6: 1-6-0 (14.3%) -6: 4-2-1 (66.7%) +10: 1-6-0 (14.3%) -10: 5-2-0 (71.4%)

Can't Do Sagarin

Play underdogs of 7.5 or more points in December Bowls: 45-45 since 2007

 

[rolltide]

you'd have lost money blindly betting against MAC teams the past two bowl seasons. might want to update these, ahemm, systems for 2016

 

[Kaboom]

I have used these over the years and reposting as requested along with some more info that may help you.
Bowl Systems that over the years are proven winners...mostly because you are going against the $$$ in these games. If someone wants to please determine what teams fit these systems it would be a great help to everyone involved...Thanks...BTW some of these systems will have plays on both sides...usually when a teams fits several systems it hits at a very high rate

Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

Bet the team with the worst season record if a dog

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams
Bet on A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team

Bet on A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team

Play underdogs with higher Sagarin strength-of-schedule ratings than their opponents

Play on Higher ranked Sagarin teams that are dogs

Play underdogs of 7.5 or more points in December Bowls

Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf

Bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:

PLAY ON Favs of 3.5 or less

PLAY THE OVER with Totals of 63.5 or higher

Bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:

PLAY ON Dogs of 4 points or more
Bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:

PLAY ON Favs in LOWER TIER Bowl games
PLAY AGAINST MAC teams....they are 1-9-1 ATS L11
PLAY ON: Dogs in bowl games that won the previous year vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last yearPlay on a non-New Year's Day bowl team that are 15' point + dogs.
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs

Thanks for posting !! Has this been updated recently ????

 

[Skeeter123]

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams
Bet on A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team

Bet on A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team


So...bet against any ranked team and if two ranked teams are playing, always bet the lower ranked team. Seems like an interesting angle.

 

[Skeeter123]

Ok, here's my stab at it.

Play on the following (and I’ve tried to exclude any teams that cancel one another out, based on criteria):

UTSA – Worst season record (Dog)
CMU – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Memphis – Worst season record (Dog)
Wyoming – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Idaho – Underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Eastern Michigan – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Miami Ohio – Underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Vanderbilt – Dog if the teams have the same record
North Texas – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Wake Forest – Dog not ranked vs ranked, worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Minnesota – Dog if the teams have the same record
Baylor – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Northwestern – Dog not ranked vs ranked, and worst season record (Dog)
Miami – Fav unranked vs ranked
Indiana – Dog not ranked vs ranked, worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Kansas State – Dog if the teams have the same record
South Carolina – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Arkansas – Dog not ranked vs ranked, and worst season record (Dog)
Oklahoma State – Worst season record (Dog) and lower ranked team vs ranked team (Dog)
North Carolina – Dog not ranked vs ranked, and worst season record (Dog) –
(NOTE: NC opened as the favorite, so not sure if that rules them out)
South Alabama – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Nebraska – Dog not ranked vs ranked, and worst season record (Dog)
Florida State – Worst season record (Dog), and lower ranked team vs ranked team (Dog)
LSU – Fav lower ranked vs higher ranked
Kentucky – Worst season record (Dog)
Washington – Dog lower ranked vs higher ranked
Ohio State – Fav lower ranked vs higher ranked
Iowa – Dog if teams have the same record, and dog not ranked vs ranked
Western Michigan – Dog lower ranked vs higher ranked
USC – Fav lower ranked vs higher ranked
Auburn – Dog lower ranked vs higher ranked, and worst reason record (Dog)

Feel free to chime in if missed something...

GL

 

[Huego]

nice post Biz, thanks for running the queries

 

[Denist.Lemieux]

Most importantly, is when word comes out that a team doesn't care about being in their bowl game. So many bowls, so many teams who's season is/has been basically shot; players who hate or checked out on their coach etc. This info is vital!

 

[Kaboom]

Ok, here's my stab at it.

Play on the following (and I’ve tried to exclude any teams that cancel one another out, based on criteria):

UTSA – Worst season record (Dog)
CMU – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Memphis – Worst season record (Dog)
Wyoming – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Idaho – Underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Eastern Michigan – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Miami Ohio – Underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Vanderbilt – Dog if the teams have the same record
North Texas – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Wake Forest – Dog not ranked vs ranked, worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Minnesota – Dog if the teams have the same record
Baylor – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Northwestern – Dog not ranked vs ranked, and worst season record (Dog)
Miami – Fav unranked vs ranked
Indiana – Dog not ranked vs ranked, worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Kansas State – Dog if the teams have the same record
South Carolina – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Arkansas – Dog not ranked vs ranked, and worst season record (Dog)
Oklahoma State – Worst season record (Dog) and lower ranked team vs ranked team (Dog)
North Carolina – Dog not ranked vs ranked, and worst season record (Dog) –
(NOTE: NC opened as the favorite, so not sure if that rules them out)
South Alabama – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Nebraska – Dog not ranked vs ranked, and worst season record (Dog)
Florida State – Worst season record (Dog), and lower ranked team vs ranked team (Dog)
LSU – Fav lower ranked vs higher ranked
Kentucky – Worst season record (Dog)
Washington – Dog lower ranked vs higher ranked
Ohio State – Fav lower ranked vs higher ranked
Iowa – Dog if teams have the same record, and dog not ranked vs ranked
Western Michigan – Dog lower ranked vs higher ranked
USC – Fav lower ranked vs higher ranked
Auburn – Dog lower ranked vs higher ranked, and worst reason record (Dog)

Feel free to chime in if missed something...

GL

Very solid work bro ! Thank you for posting !!!!

 

[GoSooners]

Most importantly, is when word comes out that a team doesn't care about being in their bowl game. So many bowls, so many teams who's season is/has been basically shot; players who hate or checked out on their coach etc. This info is vital!

The only problem with this is how do we know for sure if a team cares about being in a bowl or not? I've seen plenty of teams in bowls that weren't suppose to show up because they were relegated to a smaller bowl, and then go on to win and cover. Lets face it, this part of handicapping bowls is more guesswork than anything else. It's like last week when everybody thought Baylor had quit on the season. Obviously they hadn't since they almost pulled the upset over WV as 17 point dogs. Unless your a fly on the wall in the locker room, you really don't know what's going through the heads of the players or the head coach.

 

[Denist.Lemieux]

I'll give you one potential game. Boston College(6-6) vs. Maryland(6-6) Let me start off by saying that B.C. has no business being in a bowl. They managed to qualify for one because they had the likes of Wagner, UMass, Buffalo, and Connecticut on their schedule. They were blown out by most of their ACC foes.

Maryland? same record... Yes! But they still had to trudge through their much more difficult Big 10 schedule. Howard and Fl Int. were their 2 cupcakes. They did beat Michigan St. I realize Michigan St had a horrible season, however they still have much more talent than their season record indicates.

The line is Maryland -2 right now. If I had to make an educated guess, I would say that Maryland might be one of these teams that may have "aw screw it" on their minds when it comes to this bowl game. And at -2 everyone will pound Maryland. Don't be surprised if B.C. wins easily.

 

[blackchina]

Ok, here's my stab at it.

Play on the following (and I’ve tried to exclude any teams that cancel one another out, based on criteria):

UTSA – Worst season record (Dog)
CMU – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Memphis – Worst season record (Dog)
Wyoming – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Idaho – Underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Eastern Michigan – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Miami Ohio – Underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Vanderbilt – Dog if the teams have the same record
North Texas – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Wake Forest – Dog not ranked vs ranked, worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Minnesota – Dog if the teams have the same record
Baylor – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Northwestern – Dog not ranked vs ranked, and worst season record (Dog)
Miami – Fav unranked vs ranked
Indiana – Dog not ranked vs ranked, worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Kansas State – Dog if the teams have the same record
South Carolina – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Arkansas – Dog not ranked vs ranked, and worst season record (Dog)
Oklahoma State – Worst season record (Dog) and lower ranked team vs ranked team (Dog)
North Carolina – Dog not ranked vs ranked, and worst season record (Dog) –
(NOTE: NC opened as the favorite, so not sure if that rules them out)
South Alabama – Worst season record (Dog), and underdog of 7.5 or more in December
Nebraska – Dog not ranked vs ranked, and worst season record (Dog)
Florida State – Worst season record (Dog), and lower ranked team vs ranked team (Dog)
LSU – Fav lower ranked vs higher ranked
Kentucky – Worst season record (Dog)
Washington – Dog lower ranked vs higher ranked
Ohio State – Fav lower ranked vs higher ranked
Iowa – Dog if teams have the same record, and dog not ranked vs ranked
Western Michigan – Dog lower ranked vs higher ranked
USC – Fav lower ranked vs higher ranked
Auburn – Dog lower ranked vs higher ranked, and worst reason record (Dog)

Feel free to chime in if missed something...

GL

Are you playing all of them?