Larry Ness' 15* NL Total of the Week (32-8 TY with 15* GOW plays / 3-0 with totals!)
My 15* play is on Atl/Was Over at 7:05 ET. The Nationals had their four-game win streak snapped last night by Atlanta and the NL's worst team (13-26) can likely expect another loss here. However, rather than playing against the Nats, I'm going over the total. Here's why? The Nats will start Levale Speigner tonight, who will be making his first ML start. Speigner has allowed 14 hits and walked 12 in pitching just 14.1 innings over 12 relief appearances in 2007. Only 54.6 percent of his 249 pitches have gone for strikes. That hardly spell good news vs an Atlanta team that is 13-6 on the road and a lineup that's averaging 5.58 RPG in those 19 games. While the Nationals' lineup only averages 3.32 RPG at home, they'll get a chance against Atlanta's Kyle Davies. In 14 starts last year, Davies posted an 8.38 ERA, allowing 90 hits in just 63.1 innings! Entering this game, his ERA is 5.35 in six starts during 2007. He is coming off an excellent outing in his last start at Pittsburgh (won 4-1 on Friday) but note that he will be attempting to win consecutive starts for just the third time in his career and the first time since July 30 and Aug. 4, 2005. Also note that in his four previous outings prior to last Friday's win at Pittsburgh, Davies allowed 23 hits and 17 ERs in 20 innings, for an ERA of 7.65. NL Total of the Week 15* Atl/Was Over.