John Ryan
Graded play: Arizona D'Backs
Brandon Lang
15 DIME
Baltimore Orioles
5 DIME
NY Mets
Minnesota Twins
Cincinnati Reds
Hondo
July 22, 2007 -- The Jays flew to Hondo's emotional rescue yester day, KOing the M's to reduce the IOUs to to 585 tur leys.
Today, he'll stick with 'em - 10 units on Toronto.
Alex Smart
Pick: Baltimore Orioles
Sun Jul 22 '07 4:05p
The Oakland As continue to struggle because of a lowly .185 team batting average over a ugly looking 12 game stretch. The As did muster a win yesterday, but the way they have been hitting I doubt very much they will make it two in a row here today against a Orioles pitcher Jeremy Guthrie that owns a stable 3-0 mark in his L/7 road starts along with a minuscule .179 ERA. Note: The As starting pitcher Dallas Braden has posted a bloated 7.78 ERA in his L/4 starts. Take the value price with Guthrie and the Orioles
Marc Lawrence
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee
Brewers send Jason Vargas to the hill in the finales of their series with the Giants knowing he is 9-0 at home in his team starts this season. With San Francisco just 4-10 away in Game Three of a series this year, look for Milwaukee to avenge yesterday's 8-0 loss and win the bucks here today.
Play On: Milwaukee
Rocketman Sports
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Garland has a 3.88 ERA overall this year and he is 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA on the road this season. Wakefield has a 6.75 ERA his last 3 starts. Wakefield is 3-8 with a 6.03 ERA overall vs Chicago White Sox since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago White Sox today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Pick: White Sox
Vegas Experts
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, July 22nd, 4:10 P.M. EDT
Mets have to be chagrined after beating themselves yesterday by blowing a 4-0 lead and giving up two runs on a botched double play. Look for them to rebound vs. soft-tossing LHP Hendrickson. They are 16-13 vs. LHPs, 28-22 on the road, 31-14 against the money line in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons and 43-25 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons.
Play on: New York
Robert Ross
Cincinnati Reds at Florida Marlins
Sunday, July 22nd, 1:05 P.M. EST EST
Despite last night's loss Reds are 10-6 since mid-season managerial change. Starter Arroyo in solid form with a 2.61 ERA his last three and 3.51 ERA this year in 11 road starts with just 5 HR allowed. Supporting angle says to Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season-NL, where team's hitters strike out 7 or more times/game on the season. (60-27 over the last 5 seasons.)
Good Luck. - Robert Ross
Play on: Cincinnati
Sports Gambling Hotline
Tampa Bay at NY YANKEES (-210)
Today we go back to the tried-and-true as we lay the run-and-a-half with the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
Yesterday these teams played a double-header, and the Yankees took it to the Rays outscoring them 24-8 along the way!
Tampa does have their best pitcher going today, but the Yankees had little trouble handling James Shields the last time they faced him on July 12th, as they got to Shields for 5 runs in 6 innings of work.
Andy Pettitte picked up the win that night, as he worked 6 innings of 3 run ball for the "W". New York has got too much at stake in this second half, and the wins are now coming in bunches - 7 of them in the last 9 games - so look for the Yanks to handle matters by another lop-sided margin this afternoon.
Play on the Yankees on the RUN LINE.
3♦ YANKEES -1 1/2 RUN
Chuck Franklin
San Francisco at MILWAUKEE (-135)
It’s hard to believe that the lowly Giants have won the first two games of this series with the first place Brewers, but I certainly don’t expect to see them get the sweep. Milwaukee has more talent in their lineup and in their pitching rotation, and those first two wins are a fluke. This Brewers team has an incredible home record, winning 35 of their 52 games in Miller Park this season. San Francisco has lost 12 of their last 17 road games.
Taking the mound for the Brewers is Claudio Vargas, who is a winning 7-2 on the season. The Brewers have been winners in each of his last nine home starts, and are 4-0 in his last four trips to the mound as a favorite of this much. He also has a winning career record vs. the Giants. Getting the start for San Francisco is southpaw Barry Zito. He has a losing 7-9 record on the season, and the Giants have lost the game in six of his last seven starts. The Brewers are going to come out strong to defend their home record, and they already have the edge they need to get this win today.
3♦ BREWERS
Michael Cannon
San Francisco (+120) at MILWAUKEE
Take the Giants at a plus return today over Milwaukee.
San Francisco will start Barry Zito as they look for the three-game sweep over the Brewers.
Zito looked dominant in his first start after the All-Star break, allowing one earned run with five hits, no walks and eight strikeouts over seven innings in a 4-2 win over the Cubs on Tuesday.
I think you'll see a much better Zito in the second half of the season. He's too good a pitcher to go a whole year like he was in the first half of the season.
The Brewers have lost three of their last four and are only 7-10 this month as they try to hold off the Cubs for the division lead.
Claudio Vargas will start for Milwaukee and he's 1-1 with a 6.19 ERA over his last three starts.
Take the Giants at a plus return as they pull off the sweep in Milwaukee.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Bobby Maxwell
St. Louis (+110) at ATLANTA
Atlanta has won five of seven against the Cardinals dating back to last season and the Braves have outscored St. Louis 26-11 in their current four-game series.
On the mound for the Cardinals is Brad Thompson (6-4, 5.06 ERA). This is going to be Thompson's first start against the Braves but he faced them in relief once and threw two scoreless innings in an 8-1 home loss.
For Atlanta, Jo-Jo Reyes (0-1, 8.68 ERA) is making his third career start and he allowed four runs in 6 1/3 innings Tuesday in a 6-5 loss to the Reds. In his big-league debut he lasted just three innings of an 8-5 loss to the Padres.
The Cardinals' offense usually shows up for Thompson as they are 9-3 in his last 12 outings and 2-1 in his last three. He's allowed more thnan three runs just once in his last four starts and the Cardinals are 7-3 in his last 10 and in those seven wins they've scored no fewer than four runs.
Load up on Thompson and the Cardinals today as they unload on Reyes and the Braves. Play St. Louis.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
Karl Garrett
Cincinnati (-120) at FLORIDA
Yesterday I gave you the Reds, and they were there until a huge 8-run inning did them in late. Today that won't be the case as Bronson Arroyo is capable of taking Cincy deep into this ball game without allowing many runs to score.
Arroyo is returning to form, and his last start at Atlanta was a gem as he worked 7 full innings on shutout baseball while allowing only 3 hits, and striking out 9.
I like Arroyo to do it again today against Florida as Cincinnati avoids the sweep.
Rick Vanden Hurk has been pretty much untested this year, and while he is coming off of a win, the kid only was able to work the minimum 5 innings before giving way to the bullpen. In his 5 starts this year, Vanden Hurk has not gone past the 6th inning in any of the 5 starts.
Look for the Reds to exact some revenge after dropping the first two of this weekend set.
Reds to roll behind Arroyo.
4♦ CINCINNATI
Dave Cokin
Take "(903) STL Cardinals"
I couldn't have enjoyed the Braves romp over the Cardinals more Saturday night, but now I'll try and bite the hand that just fed me. The Cardinals have a great record when Brad Thompson starts and I see them getting to Atlanta's Jo Jo Reyes early. Reyes looks really fringy to me, as he hits way too many bats and lacks an out pitch. I think he's overmatched at this level, and at today's price St. Louis represents strong value.
Jim Feist
Take "Under"
Jake Peavy has been a model of consistency this season for the Padres. The Alabama native is 9-4 on the season with a 2.38 era. Jake hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last six starts. Add the fact that the Padres have one of the top bullpens in the league and you can see why his last four games have gone UNDER. J.D. Durbin starts for Philly and while he's 1-2 with 9.00 era mainly from the pen, his one road start was a nice win at the Dodgers where he allowed just one earned run in six innings work. The Padres don't give Peavy a lot of run support so don't look for many runs in this contest. Padres pitching and mediocre hitting will keep this game UNDER.
Sunday Horse Racing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS
For Sunday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (4th) Park at Dark, 3-1
(9th) Lil Minniet, 4-1
Belmont Park (4th) Nor'easterner, 3-1
(5th) Nordberg, 3-1
Calder Race Course (3rd) Wizard's Glass, 4-1
(6th) Finallymadeit, 8-1
Canterbury Park (5th) Audiahvo, 5-1
(9th) Seneca Summer, 4-1
Charles Town (4th) Robin's Prospect, 4-1
(7th) Indy's Sensation, 6-1
Colonial Downs (4th) Minister of Piece, 6-1
(9th) Painted Face, 8-1
Del Mar (6th) Le Cirque, 4-1
(7th) Smart Hit, 8-1
Delaware Park (8th) Don't be Chicken, 7-2
(9th) Tri Pro, 3-1
Ellis Park (2nd) Master Barry, 9-2
(3rd) Mucky Muck, 4-1
Emerald Downs (5th) Stormburn, 9-2
(9th) Bemuse, 4-1
Finger Lakes (1st) Mad Bob Cat, 9-2
(6th) Evermon, 8-1
Fort Erie (7th) GT's Baccaratbaby, 7-2
(8th) Big Sister Carolyn, 8-1
Hastings Park (4th) Masterpeach, 7-2
(8th) Sir Luther, 3-1
Lone Star Park (3rd) Harley Girl, 7-2
(4th) Sly Trader, 3-1
Louisiana Downs (8th) No Better Chance, 7-2
(9th) Rowdy Assembly, 6-1
Monmouth Park (5th) Fabled, 7-2
(9th) Trying Brian, 5-1
Mountaineer (5th) Morethanrisque, 9-2
(6th) Rocketry, 4-1
Northlands (6th) Silver Sky, 7-2
(8th) Devon Dancer, 3-1
Philadelphia Park (3rd) Dreamabull, 7-2
(4th) She's Not For Sale, 4-1
River Downs (9th) The Potters Hand, 7-2
(11th) O'Riain, 6-1
Suffolk Downs (5th) Girlsjuswanahavfun, 9-2
(7th) Edgarsflyingkite, 3-1
Thistledown (10th) Royal Recognition, 7-2
(14th) What Now Wynn, 3-1
Woodbine (3rd) Be Envied, 7-2
(10th) West Beware, 3-1
EDDIE READ H. (G1), 3RD-DMR, $400,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/8MT, 3:00 P.M. (PDT), 7-22
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 FAST AND FURIOUS (FR) MCANALLY RONALD ESPINOZA V 115
2 OUT OF CONTROL (BRZ) FRANKEL ROBERT J BAZE M C 115
3 ROB ROY DRYSDALE NEIL FLORES D R 117
4 ATLANDO (IRE) VIENNA DARRELL PEDROZA M A 114
5 AFTER MARKET SHIRREFFS JOHN SOLIS A 120
6 VALIANT EFFORT SISE CLIFFORD JR ENRIQUEZ I D 110
A compact field of six will contest Sunday's $400,000 Eddie Read H. (G1) at Del Mar, and Charles Whittingham Memorial H. (G1) hero AFTER MARKET (Storm Cat) looks super tough. However, we'll try to beat the favorite with ROB ROY (Lear Fan).
A Group 2 winner in England, Rob Roy finished an excellent second to multiple highweight Pride in the 1 1/4-mile Champion S. (Eng-G1) last October and shipped to the United States for the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), in which he finished a highly creditable fifth following a nightmarish trip. Transferred to Neil Drysdale thereafter, Rob Roy rallied late to be fifth, beaten three lengths, in the 1 1/16-mile Citation H. (G1) next out in late November. The dark bay will make his five-year-old debut in the Eddie Read and runs well fresh, earning his Group 2 win last season off a similar layoff. The added ground will likely benefit the late runner, and we don't expect him to be so far back with so much to do in his third start stateside. The classy Rob Roy will offer some value.
After Market will enter the Eddie Read at the top of his game and is three-for-five at nine furlongs, winning a Grade 2 and Grade 3 event last season. He's really come on at four for conditioner John Shirreffs, taking the 1 1/16-mile Inglewood H. (G3) in convincing fashion two starts back before derailing Lava Man (Slew City Slew) in the 10-furlong Whittingham. He earned a whopping 110 BRIS Speed rating last time, and After Market looks tough to beat.
OUT OF CONTROL (Brz) (Vettori) must be given a chance for the upset. Group 1-placed in Brazil, the four-year-old recorded four allowance starts before making his U.S. stakes debut a winning one in the American Invitational H. (G2) last out, rallying gamely to nod The Tin Man (Affirmed) in the 1 1/8-mile affair. The Bobby Frankel trainee has earned BRIS Late Pace ratings as high as 107, and Out of Control could make an impact under Michael Baze with further improvement.
FAST AND FURIOUS (Fr) (Singspiel [Ire]) finished a close third in the American last time, but the Ron McAnally charge has never run well over Del Mar's turf before (4-0-0-0), finishing last of seven in the 2006 Eddie Read. We can't recommend his chances here.
ATLANDO (Ire) (Hernando [Fr]) owns some back class, but his recent form (unplaced in last three outings) is discouraging. Maiden winner VALIANT EFFORT (Bertrando), After Market's entrymate and expected pacesetter, has been scratched.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-ROB ROY
2nd-AFTER MARKET
3rd-OUT OF CONTROL (Brz)
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Ellis Park for Sunday July 22, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Ellis Park
Ellis Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:08pm
Rating: 4
Choice Plays:
#1 ORGANIZING CHAOS (ML=6/1)
ORGANIZING CHAOS - The rider and trainer combination have a favorable ROI when they combine forces. Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a solid effort on Jun 30th. This gelding likes to lay just off the pace and the way things shape up here, he should get a gorgeous trip. Just check out his most recent fig, 79. That one fits well in this bunch.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 FIREY NEW LOVE (ML=5/2), #4 DADDYS SHOES (ML=3/1), #5 TWICE TOO MUCH (ML=4/1)
FIREY NEW LOVE - Not a value play to back the favorite when he continues to lose time and time again when favored. The speed figure last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a vulnerable competitor. DADDYS SHOES - The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this entrant as a questionable contender. TWICE TOO MUCH - Hard to put your dough on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as often as this horse does. Notched a disappointing rating last time around the track in a $5,000 Claiming race on July 6th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #1 ORGANIZING CHAOS on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
__________________
BRIAN GABRIELLE
Take Tiger Woods (11-4), 1/6 unit: He’s going for three in a row at the Open, wife and child at home. I understand the distraction of the new father but Nick Faldo points out that he and others have won majors with newborns. And Tiger’s practical precision last year in Liverpool is likely to be aped by other would-be contenders who can’t play six-irons to birdie range like he can. Look for renewed focus after hosting in D.C. and his acute awareness of history, and the fact that the Royal Bank of Scotland routinely advertises Jack as the best major winner of all time. Take Sergio Garcia (34-1), 1/6 unit: What can you say. He should have already won a major, probably several. He’s got a bit of Mickelson in him on the aggressiveness front but the bigger weakness is putting. He’ll put it together one day, I imagine, and it may as well be in the Open, where he’s finished T5 the last two years. Take Graeme McDowell (101-1), 1/6 unit: He doesn’t play much in the states. After 15 starts on Tour last year he’s been pretty much full-time on the European Tour this year. He finished T11 in the Open in 2005 and is coming off a T11 at last week’s Scottish Open. He doesn’t do anything spectacularly well but he’s steady, finds greens and he’s a good putter. He’s worked for this week, according to his Web site: "Like last year, I had to go through 36-hole qualifying to make it to Carnoustie, but now I’m here and ready for whatever the course throws at me."
Big Al Mcmordie
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Just how much better is the American League than the National League right now? Not only have they been dominating interleague play recently (427-329 over the past 3 years and 4 years in a row of winning Interleague play), and winning all the All-Star games, but consider this stat as we head into the stretch of 2007: If the season were to end right now, the Seattle Mariners would not make the playoffs in the American League, but at 54-40 (.574), not only would they make the playoffs in the National League, but they would have the best record and home field through the postseason all the way through the NL Championship series. Another AL team that is not likely to make the playoffs at this point is the Minnesota Twins, but if they can keep this nucleus together AND get Francisco Liriano back in the Spring, then they will definitely be a team to watch next season. For now, guys like young righthanded starter Matt Garza have to pick up the slack and so far in his second stint with the Major League club, he is doing just that. Garza has yet to give up a run in two starts since being called up at the start of July. He finally looks like he will fulfill the promise the Twins have had for him since he made his professional baseball debut only two years ago. The Twins go for the three game sweep of the AL West-leading Angels and the way they're playing right now there is no reason to expect that they won't pull it off.
Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
Wise Owl Syndicate - Reds and Marlins over 9.5
Straley Group Seattle Mariners
John Ryan
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Arizona - Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-19 and has made 34.8 units since 1997. Play on road teams that are bad offensive teams scoring <=4.1 runs/game and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season and is now facing a good starting pitcher sporting an ERA<=3.70. Arizona has a solid bullpen had they close games out. This does not bode well for the Cubs. Note that CHICAGO CUBS are 13-23 (-17.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. CHICAGO CUBS are 10-28 (-18.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team with a win Percentage 51% to 54% over the last 2 seasons. Despite playing so well this year the Cubs have not been a good investment at home under certain lines. Note that they are just 6-10 and -10 units this season and 17-29 and -29.6 units over the past 3 seasons when the home line is -150 to -175. Also note that a line movement outside of this range would in NO way alter the grading of this play. The grading is the final result of the AiS. The slight differences in the probabilities of ATS and SU wins are only shown as just 1 example of the many modules involved in the neural net. Differing probabilities do not make one play stronger than another. Remember always that the reason we are making this play is due to the AiS grading. The supplemental info, angles, and systems serve only to reinforce the grading. Take the Diamondbacks
Sebastian
7* CLE
10* MIL
20* CIN
20* CWS/BOS OVER
20* SEA/TOR Under
20* KC/DET Under
Trev Rogers
July 22, 2007
62-47-1 Last 55 days
101-68-3 Last 172 selections
1. Rockies -117
2. Brewers -134
3. Royals vs. Tigers Under 9.5
Graded play: Arizona D'Backs
Brandon Lang
15 DIME
Baltimore Orioles
5 DIME
NY Mets
Minnesota Twins
Cincinnati Reds
Hondo
July 22, 2007 -- The Jays flew to Hondo's emotional rescue yester day, KOing the M's to reduce the IOUs to to 585 tur leys.
Today, he'll stick with 'em - 10 units on Toronto.
Alex Smart
Pick: Baltimore Orioles
Sun Jul 22 '07 4:05p
The Oakland As continue to struggle because of a lowly .185 team batting average over a ugly looking 12 game stretch. The As did muster a win yesterday, but the way they have been hitting I doubt very much they will make it two in a row here today against a Orioles pitcher Jeremy Guthrie that owns a stable 3-0 mark in his L/7 road starts along with a minuscule .179 ERA. Note: The As starting pitcher Dallas Braden has posted a bloated 7.78 ERA in his L/4 starts. Take the value price with Guthrie and the Orioles
Marc Lawrence
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee
Brewers send Jason Vargas to the hill in the finales of their series with the Giants knowing he is 9-0 at home in his team starts this season. With San Francisco just 4-10 away in Game Three of a series this year, look for Milwaukee to avenge yesterday's 8-0 loss and win the bucks here today.
Play On: Milwaukee
Rocketman Sports
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Garland has a 3.88 ERA overall this year and he is 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA on the road this season. Wakefield has a 6.75 ERA his last 3 starts. Wakefield is 3-8 with a 6.03 ERA overall vs Chicago White Sox since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago White Sox today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Pick: White Sox
Vegas Experts
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, July 22nd, 4:10 P.M. EDT
Mets have to be chagrined after beating themselves yesterday by blowing a 4-0 lead and giving up two runs on a botched double play. Look for them to rebound vs. soft-tossing LHP Hendrickson. They are 16-13 vs. LHPs, 28-22 on the road, 31-14 against the money line in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons and 43-25 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons.
Play on: New York
Robert Ross
Cincinnati Reds at Florida Marlins
Sunday, July 22nd, 1:05 P.M. EST EST
Despite last night's loss Reds are 10-6 since mid-season managerial change. Starter Arroyo in solid form with a 2.61 ERA his last three and 3.51 ERA this year in 11 road starts with just 5 HR allowed. Supporting angle says to Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season-NL, where team's hitters strike out 7 or more times/game on the season. (60-27 over the last 5 seasons.)
Good Luck. - Robert Ross
Play on: Cincinnati
Sports Gambling Hotline
Tampa Bay at NY YANKEES (-210)
Today we go back to the tried-and-true as we lay the run-and-a-half with the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
Yesterday these teams played a double-header, and the Yankees took it to the Rays outscoring them 24-8 along the way!
Tampa does have their best pitcher going today, but the Yankees had little trouble handling James Shields the last time they faced him on July 12th, as they got to Shields for 5 runs in 6 innings of work.
Andy Pettitte picked up the win that night, as he worked 6 innings of 3 run ball for the "W". New York has got too much at stake in this second half, and the wins are now coming in bunches - 7 of them in the last 9 games - so look for the Yanks to handle matters by another lop-sided margin this afternoon.
Play on the Yankees on the RUN LINE.
3♦ YANKEES -1 1/2 RUN
Chuck Franklin
San Francisco at MILWAUKEE (-135)
It’s hard to believe that the lowly Giants have won the first two games of this series with the first place Brewers, but I certainly don’t expect to see them get the sweep. Milwaukee has more talent in their lineup and in their pitching rotation, and those first two wins are a fluke. This Brewers team has an incredible home record, winning 35 of their 52 games in Miller Park this season. San Francisco has lost 12 of their last 17 road games.
Taking the mound for the Brewers is Claudio Vargas, who is a winning 7-2 on the season. The Brewers have been winners in each of his last nine home starts, and are 4-0 in his last four trips to the mound as a favorite of this much. He also has a winning career record vs. the Giants. Getting the start for San Francisco is southpaw Barry Zito. He has a losing 7-9 record on the season, and the Giants have lost the game in six of his last seven starts. The Brewers are going to come out strong to defend their home record, and they already have the edge they need to get this win today.
3♦ BREWERS
Michael Cannon
San Francisco (+120) at MILWAUKEE
Take the Giants at a plus return today over Milwaukee.
San Francisco will start Barry Zito as they look for the three-game sweep over the Brewers.
Zito looked dominant in his first start after the All-Star break, allowing one earned run with five hits, no walks and eight strikeouts over seven innings in a 4-2 win over the Cubs on Tuesday.
I think you'll see a much better Zito in the second half of the season. He's too good a pitcher to go a whole year like he was in the first half of the season.
The Brewers have lost three of their last four and are only 7-10 this month as they try to hold off the Cubs for the division lead.
Claudio Vargas will start for Milwaukee and he's 1-1 with a 6.19 ERA over his last three starts.
Take the Giants at a plus return as they pull off the sweep in Milwaukee.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Bobby Maxwell
St. Louis (+110) at ATLANTA
Atlanta has won five of seven against the Cardinals dating back to last season and the Braves have outscored St. Louis 26-11 in their current four-game series.
On the mound for the Cardinals is Brad Thompson (6-4, 5.06 ERA). This is going to be Thompson's first start against the Braves but he faced them in relief once and threw two scoreless innings in an 8-1 home loss.
For Atlanta, Jo-Jo Reyes (0-1, 8.68 ERA) is making his third career start and he allowed four runs in 6 1/3 innings Tuesday in a 6-5 loss to the Reds. In his big-league debut he lasted just three innings of an 8-5 loss to the Padres.
The Cardinals' offense usually shows up for Thompson as they are 9-3 in his last 12 outings and 2-1 in his last three. He's allowed more thnan three runs just once in his last four starts and the Cardinals are 7-3 in his last 10 and in those seven wins they've scored no fewer than four runs.
Load up on Thompson and the Cardinals today as they unload on Reyes and the Braves. Play St. Louis.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
Karl Garrett
Cincinnati (-120) at FLORIDA
Yesterday I gave you the Reds, and they were there until a huge 8-run inning did them in late. Today that won't be the case as Bronson Arroyo is capable of taking Cincy deep into this ball game without allowing many runs to score.
Arroyo is returning to form, and his last start at Atlanta was a gem as he worked 7 full innings on shutout baseball while allowing only 3 hits, and striking out 9.
I like Arroyo to do it again today against Florida as Cincinnati avoids the sweep.
Rick Vanden Hurk has been pretty much untested this year, and while he is coming off of a win, the kid only was able to work the minimum 5 innings before giving way to the bullpen. In his 5 starts this year, Vanden Hurk has not gone past the 6th inning in any of the 5 starts.
Look for the Reds to exact some revenge after dropping the first two of this weekend set.
Reds to roll behind Arroyo.
4♦ CINCINNATI
Dave Cokin
Take "(903) STL Cardinals"
I couldn't have enjoyed the Braves romp over the Cardinals more Saturday night, but now I'll try and bite the hand that just fed me. The Cardinals have a great record when Brad Thompson starts and I see them getting to Atlanta's Jo Jo Reyes early. Reyes looks really fringy to me, as he hits way too many bats and lacks an out pitch. I think he's overmatched at this level, and at today's price St. Louis represents strong value.
Jim Feist
Take "Under"
Jake Peavy has been a model of consistency this season for the Padres. The Alabama native is 9-4 on the season with a 2.38 era. Jake hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last six starts. Add the fact that the Padres have one of the top bullpens in the league and you can see why his last four games have gone UNDER. J.D. Durbin starts for Philly and while he's 1-2 with 9.00 era mainly from the pen, his one road start was a nice win at the Dodgers where he allowed just one earned run in six innings work. The Padres don't give Peavy a lot of run support so don't look for many runs in this contest. Padres pitching and mediocre hitting will keep this game UNDER.
Sunday Horse Racing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS
For Sunday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (4th) Park at Dark, 3-1
(9th) Lil Minniet, 4-1
Belmont Park (4th) Nor'easterner, 3-1
(5th) Nordberg, 3-1
Calder Race Course (3rd) Wizard's Glass, 4-1
(6th) Finallymadeit, 8-1
Canterbury Park (5th) Audiahvo, 5-1
(9th) Seneca Summer, 4-1
Charles Town (4th) Robin's Prospect, 4-1
(7th) Indy's Sensation, 6-1
Colonial Downs (4th) Minister of Piece, 6-1
(9th) Painted Face, 8-1
Del Mar (6th) Le Cirque, 4-1
(7th) Smart Hit, 8-1
Delaware Park (8th) Don't be Chicken, 7-2
(9th) Tri Pro, 3-1
Ellis Park (2nd) Master Barry, 9-2
(3rd) Mucky Muck, 4-1
Emerald Downs (5th) Stormburn, 9-2
(9th) Bemuse, 4-1
Finger Lakes (1st) Mad Bob Cat, 9-2
(6th) Evermon, 8-1
Fort Erie (7th) GT's Baccaratbaby, 7-2
(8th) Big Sister Carolyn, 8-1
Hastings Park (4th) Masterpeach, 7-2
(8th) Sir Luther, 3-1
Lone Star Park (3rd) Harley Girl, 7-2
(4th) Sly Trader, 3-1
Louisiana Downs (8th) No Better Chance, 7-2
(9th) Rowdy Assembly, 6-1
Monmouth Park (5th) Fabled, 7-2
(9th) Trying Brian, 5-1
Mountaineer (5th) Morethanrisque, 9-2
(6th) Rocketry, 4-1
Northlands (6th) Silver Sky, 7-2
(8th) Devon Dancer, 3-1
Philadelphia Park (3rd) Dreamabull, 7-2
(4th) She's Not For Sale, 4-1
River Downs (9th) The Potters Hand, 7-2
(11th) O'Riain, 6-1
Suffolk Downs (5th) Girlsjuswanahavfun, 9-2
(7th) Edgarsflyingkite, 3-1
Thistledown (10th) Royal Recognition, 7-2
(14th) What Now Wynn, 3-1
Woodbine (3rd) Be Envied, 7-2
(10th) West Beware, 3-1
EDDIE READ H. (G1), 3RD-DMR, $400,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/8MT, 3:00 P.M. (PDT), 7-22
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 FAST AND FURIOUS (FR) MCANALLY RONALD ESPINOZA V 115
2 OUT OF CONTROL (BRZ) FRANKEL ROBERT J BAZE M C 115
3 ROB ROY DRYSDALE NEIL FLORES D R 117
4 ATLANDO (IRE) VIENNA DARRELL PEDROZA M A 114
5 AFTER MARKET SHIRREFFS JOHN SOLIS A 120
6 VALIANT EFFORT SISE CLIFFORD JR ENRIQUEZ I D 110
A compact field of six will contest Sunday's $400,000 Eddie Read H. (G1) at Del Mar, and Charles Whittingham Memorial H. (G1) hero AFTER MARKET (Storm Cat) looks super tough. However, we'll try to beat the favorite with ROB ROY (Lear Fan).
A Group 2 winner in England, Rob Roy finished an excellent second to multiple highweight Pride in the 1 1/4-mile Champion S. (Eng-G1) last October and shipped to the United States for the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), in which he finished a highly creditable fifth following a nightmarish trip. Transferred to Neil Drysdale thereafter, Rob Roy rallied late to be fifth, beaten three lengths, in the 1 1/16-mile Citation H. (G1) next out in late November. The dark bay will make his five-year-old debut in the Eddie Read and runs well fresh, earning his Group 2 win last season off a similar layoff. The added ground will likely benefit the late runner, and we don't expect him to be so far back with so much to do in his third start stateside. The classy Rob Roy will offer some value.
After Market will enter the Eddie Read at the top of his game and is three-for-five at nine furlongs, winning a Grade 2 and Grade 3 event last season. He's really come on at four for conditioner John Shirreffs, taking the 1 1/16-mile Inglewood H. (G3) in convincing fashion two starts back before derailing Lava Man (Slew City Slew) in the 10-furlong Whittingham. He earned a whopping 110 BRIS Speed rating last time, and After Market looks tough to beat.
OUT OF CONTROL (Brz) (Vettori) must be given a chance for the upset. Group 1-placed in Brazil, the four-year-old recorded four allowance starts before making his U.S. stakes debut a winning one in the American Invitational H. (G2) last out, rallying gamely to nod The Tin Man (Affirmed) in the 1 1/8-mile affair. The Bobby Frankel trainee has earned BRIS Late Pace ratings as high as 107, and Out of Control could make an impact under Michael Baze with further improvement.
FAST AND FURIOUS (Fr) (Singspiel [Ire]) finished a close third in the American last time, but the Ron McAnally charge has never run well over Del Mar's turf before (4-0-0-0), finishing last of seven in the 2006 Eddie Read. We can't recommend his chances here.
ATLANDO (Ire) (Hernando [Fr]) owns some back class, but his recent form (unplaced in last three outings) is discouraging. Maiden winner VALIANT EFFORT (Bertrando), After Market's entrymate and expected pacesetter, has been scratched.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-ROB ROY
2nd-AFTER MARKET
3rd-OUT OF CONTROL (Brz)
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Ellis Park for Sunday July 22, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Ellis Park
Ellis Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:08pm
Rating: 4
Choice Plays:
#1 ORGANIZING CHAOS (ML=6/1)
ORGANIZING CHAOS - The rider and trainer combination have a favorable ROI when they combine forces. Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a solid effort on Jun 30th. This gelding likes to lay just off the pace and the way things shape up here, he should get a gorgeous trip. Just check out his most recent fig, 79. That one fits well in this bunch.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 FIREY NEW LOVE (ML=5/2), #4 DADDYS SHOES (ML=3/1), #5 TWICE TOO MUCH (ML=4/1)
FIREY NEW LOVE - Not a value play to back the favorite when he continues to lose time and time again when favored. The speed figure last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a vulnerable competitor. DADDYS SHOES - The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this entrant as a questionable contender. TWICE TOO MUCH - Hard to put your dough on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as often as this horse does. Notched a disappointing rating last time around the track in a $5,000 Claiming race on July 6th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #1 ORGANIZING CHAOS on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
__________________
BRIAN GABRIELLE
Take Tiger Woods (11-4), 1/6 unit: He’s going for three in a row at the Open, wife and child at home. I understand the distraction of the new father but Nick Faldo points out that he and others have won majors with newborns. And Tiger’s practical precision last year in Liverpool is likely to be aped by other would-be contenders who can’t play six-irons to birdie range like he can. Look for renewed focus after hosting in D.C. and his acute awareness of history, and the fact that the Royal Bank of Scotland routinely advertises Jack as the best major winner of all time. Take Sergio Garcia (34-1), 1/6 unit: What can you say. He should have already won a major, probably several. He’s got a bit of Mickelson in him on the aggressiveness front but the bigger weakness is putting. He’ll put it together one day, I imagine, and it may as well be in the Open, where he’s finished T5 the last two years. Take Graeme McDowell (101-1), 1/6 unit: He doesn’t play much in the states. After 15 starts on Tour last year he’s been pretty much full-time on the European Tour this year. He finished T11 in the Open in 2005 and is coming off a T11 at last week’s Scottish Open. He doesn’t do anything spectacularly well but he’s steady, finds greens and he’s a good putter. He’s worked for this week, according to his Web site: "Like last year, I had to go through 36-hole qualifying to make it to Carnoustie, but now I’m here and ready for whatever the course throws at me."
Big Al Mcmordie
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Just how much better is the American League than the National League right now? Not only have they been dominating interleague play recently (427-329 over the past 3 years and 4 years in a row of winning Interleague play), and winning all the All-Star games, but consider this stat as we head into the stretch of 2007: If the season were to end right now, the Seattle Mariners would not make the playoffs in the American League, but at 54-40 (.574), not only would they make the playoffs in the National League, but they would have the best record and home field through the postseason all the way through the NL Championship series. Another AL team that is not likely to make the playoffs at this point is the Minnesota Twins, but if they can keep this nucleus together AND get Francisco Liriano back in the Spring, then they will definitely be a team to watch next season. For now, guys like young righthanded starter Matt Garza have to pick up the slack and so far in his second stint with the Major League club, he is doing just that. Garza has yet to give up a run in two starts since being called up at the start of July. He finally looks like he will fulfill the promise the Twins have had for him since he made his professional baseball debut only two years ago. The Twins go for the three game sweep of the AL West-leading Angels and the way they're playing right now there is no reason to expect that they won't pull it off.
Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
Wise Owl Syndicate - Reds and Marlins over 9.5
Straley Group Seattle Mariners
John Ryan
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Arizona - Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-19 and has made 34.8 units since 1997. Play on road teams that are bad offensive teams scoring <=4.1 runs/game and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season and is now facing a good starting pitcher sporting an ERA<=3.70. Arizona has a solid bullpen had they close games out. This does not bode well for the Cubs. Note that CHICAGO CUBS are 13-23 (-17.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. CHICAGO CUBS are 10-28 (-18.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team with a win Percentage 51% to 54% over the last 2 seasons. Despite playing so well this year the Cubs have not been a good investment at home under certain lines. Note that they are just 6-10 and -10 units this season and 17-29 and -29.6 units over the past 3 seasons when the home line is -150 to -175. Also note that a line movement outside of this range would in NO way alter the grading of this play. The grading is the final result of the AiS. The slight differences in the probabilities of ATS and SU wins are only shown as just 1 example of the many modules involved in the neural net. Differing probabilities do not make one play stronger than another. Remember always that the reason we are making this play is due to the AiS grading. The supplemental info, angles, and systems serve only to reinforce the grading. Take the Diamondbacks
Sebastian
7* CLE
10* MIL
20* CIN
20* CWS/BOS OVER
20* SEA/TOR Under
20* KC/DET Under
Trev Rogers
July 22, 2007
62-47-1 Last 55 days
101-68-3 Last 172 selections
1. Rockies -117
2. Brewers -134
3. Royals vs. Tigers Under 9.5