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Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner (19-5 run since May 6 with Wipeout Winners!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Col Rockies at 8:05 ET. The Rockies have dropped 18 of their last 24 games against the Dodgers and eight of 10 against them here in Coors Field. The Dodgers won Thursday's series opener 5-4 but it was just LA's third win in its last eight games. Friday's game was postponed and in tonight's game it looks as if the Dodgers will start Brett Tomko (last night's scheduled starter) instead of Chad Billingsley. I'd prefer Tomko, who is 1-5 with a 7.26 ERA in nine outings (seven starts) at Coors Field, but Billingsley would be fine as well (despite his recent good efforts). Either way, Francis starts for the Rockies and after a brutal four-game stretch (from April 16-May 2) saw him go 0-4 with a 7.99, the left-hander is 9-1 with a 3.49 ERA over his last 15 starts (team is 12-3). Forget the team's recent woes against the Dodgers, as the Rockies are 14-7 over their last 21 home games (averaging 6.9 RPG) and 14-8 vs right-ahnders at night in Coors, averaging 5.7 RPG. I realize the Dodgers have been good against lefties this year but Francis is on top of his game, while neither Tomko nor Billingsley is up to the challenge in this one. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Col Rockies.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (now 21-11 or 66% winners since May 21!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET. The Reds beat the Cubs 5-4 last night and Chicago has now lost two straight and four of its last six. However, the Cubs are still a major league-best 31-17 since June 3. Chicago has not lost three consecutive games since a season-high six-game slide May 27-June 2 but the Cubs have scored just seven runs in their last four losses and tonight face MLB's biggest "moneymaker" in Cincy's Aaron Harang. Harang (10-2, 3.45 ERA) gave up one run, seven hits and struck out 10 in a career-high 10 innings of a 2-1, 12-inning victory over the Brewers last Monday. He joined Toronto's Roy Halladay as the only pitchers in the majors to go 10 innings this season. Cincinnati has won the last nine times Harang has pitched, as the right-hander has gone 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA. He hasn't lost since May 20 and could have more than his 10 wins if he wasn't followed by one of the majors' worst bullpens. Harang, who hasn't lost at Great American Ball Park since May 5, is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last seven home starts. He beat the Cubs on opening day at home, allowing one run and six hits in seven innings of a 5-1 victory on April 2. On the season, the Reds are 17-5 in Harang's starts, for a ML-best plus-$1,318 against the moneyline. The Cubs counter with Sean Marshall (4-4, 3.25), who is seeking his first win in more than a month. Marshall was 6-9 last year with a 5.99 ERA in 24 starts (team was 12-12) and has pitched well enough to win his last three outings, but has been hurt by a lack of run support. The left-hander allowed five runs in 17.1 innings, but was backed by only four runs. He's up against it here vs Harang. Las Vegas Insider on the Cin Reds.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 15* Line Value Game of the Week (now 79-26 with 15* GOW plays TY!)
My 15* play is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. The Red Sox go for their eighth win in nine games and seek to continue dominating the Devil Rays when the teams play again tonight. Last night's 7-1 defeat was the seventh straight for the Devil Rays, who have now dropped 24 of their last 29 games. Tampa Bay has been outscored 71-21 during its losing streak and in four meetings (all losses!) this year with Boston, who owns MLB's best record (63-40), the D'Rays have been outscored 33-11. So why did the Red Sox open at minus-$1.20 when they were favored by minus-$1.60 yesterday? A mistake has been made likely for two reasons. First off, oddsmaker's may be a little wary of Boston's Jon Lester. He makes his second start of '07 since returning from a battle with cancer. The 23-year-old left-hander was diagnosed with the disease in August but was declared cancer-free in December. Lester made his season debut Monday night at Cleveland, limiting the Indians to two runs over six innings in Boston's 6-2 victory. He walked three, struck out six and threw 55 of his 96 pitches for strikes. He went 7-2 with a 4.76 ERA in 15 starts (team was 9-6) in '06 for the Red Sox and after Monday's effort, what's to be concerned about? Also, I believe oddsmaker's are giving James Shields WAY too much credit. He looked great early this year as he opened 6-0 with a 3.04 ERA in his first 13 starts (team was 8-5) but the right-hander has NOT been the same pitcher these days. Hasn't anybody noticed his 7.26 ERA over his last eight starts or his 2-6 mark? Let's also note that the Red Sox are 23-11 (plus-$1,385) in road night games vs righties in '07.Too much Red Sox nation here and price is a bargain. Line Value Game of the Week 15* Bos Red Sox.
Good Luck...Larry
