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Chris Jordan
600♦ INDIANS (LIST Byrd and Bonser)
I know all about the Twins’ second-half heroics; that they’re monsters of the AL Central after the break, and that Minnesota ace Johan Santana is remarkable since 2003 after the intermission. But the thing is, none of that has held true this season, so far. The Twins have been horrendous lately, and Santana has lost his last two starts.
And we don’t even have to face the off-speed specialist tonight.
Instead, we’re facing Boof Bonser, who has just eight quality starts in 20 outings this year. And keep in mind the Indians have won all five of the club's previous meetings this season, including a pair of victories over Santana.
We’re going to side with Paul Byrd, who is 7-3 with a 3.95 ERA in 13 career starts against the Twins, and hasn’t lost since June 16. On top of that, the crafty right-hander has thrown quality starts in five of his last six appearances, including a solid outing against Texas on Sunday, holding the Rangers to two runs on three hits over 5-2/3 frames. The veteran hurler won his previous start against the Twinkies this season, despite giving up five runs on seven hits in seven innings.
Look for the bats to come around in this one, a night after the Tribe posted nine on the Red Sox – and lost.
100♦ REDS (LIST Arroyo and Hill)
It may look ugly on paper, but it looks like a perfect opportunity for us to score a value line play. After all, the Cubs are not all that invincible, and Bronson Arroyo, albeit he’s 4-11, still has some of his best stuff to throw. Over his last six starts, Arroyo is 2-3 with a 3.10 ERA. In his two starts against the Cubs this season - April 4 and 14 - he was 0-2 with a 3.95 ERA. Now in defense of him, where has the run support been? He’s had five of six quality starts to date, as it’s just a matter of getting his offense going. I think the paper play is on the Cubs, and the bandwagon play is to jump on Chicago. That’s why tonight we’re going to take Arroyo and the Reds.
100♦ BREWERS (LIST Vargas and Maroth)
The Brewers have lost five of their last seven games, while the second-place Cubs have continued their surge toward the top of the NL Central. That’s exactly why the Brew Crew need to put things together tonight against a team it is 4-1 against this season, while also splitting a rain-shortened two-game series at Busch Stadium in April. We have a solid shot at getting things done here, as Claudio Vargas comes in after limiting the Giants to three runs on five hits with four strikeouts, while the Brewers improved to 14-3 when he starts. He’ll get the run support he’ll need against struggling Mike Maroth.
Jimmy Broadway
750 Stars Cubs
500 Stars Detroit
300 Stars Under 9.5 Whitesox/Bluejays
Drew Gordon
400,000♦ Chicago Cubs
100,000♦ Rangers
100,000♦ Diamondbacks
Chicago Cubs
I called this play my "no-brainer" for a reason, and that reason is the pitching mismatch in this contest. Got to love the Cubs behind their southpaw Rich Hill, who's been impressive over his last two starts, allowing 3 earned over his last 14 innings! Reds have some real trouble with lefties, averaging just .238 against them on the season.
While Bronson Arroyo has pitched more effectively, overall he's still nowhere near the level that made him an All-Star last season. Despite the slight improvement, he's still one loss away from a career-high 12 losses. Look for him to get pounded by a Cubs offense still reeling from getting their asses handed to them by the Cardinals yesterday
Speaking of the Cubs 11-1 loss at the hands of the Cardinals yesterday, you know damn well they're going to come out fired up in this one. Cubs are averaging a solid .281 on the road against righties, and should have little trouble getting to Arroyo, especially the way Ramirez and Lee are hitting right now!
Finally, try and remember that this is a Cubs team that has won 21 of their last 29 overall! They're playing great baseball, and despite yesterday's loss, still took two fo three from the Cardinals at Busch.
They'll also kick-off this series with a win, as the Reds will once again struggle against a southpaw.
Take the Chicago Cubs behind Hill over the Reds as your top-rated play of the day.
Rangers
You're going to put your trust in the Royals at Kauffman, where they're 21-31 on the season? Hell no, especially considering how well the Rangers are playing right now, coming off an impressive 4-game sweep of the Mariners! Also consider the Rangers come into Kauffman having won 7 of their last 9 there!
Rangers Jamey Wright gets the nod, coming off an ugly start against Cleveland Saturday. True, he was all over the place, but I believe we'll see the Jamey Wright of old tonight... The same pitcher who's 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in 3 career starts against the Royals! Wright is 2-0 with an a 1.65 ERA over his last 3 starts (all Rangers wins)!
Royals counter with Brian Bannister, who's coming off an impressive start against the Tigers at Comerica. Good news for the Rangers is Bannister has been better on the road, just like his team, and will be in for trouble against a Rangers team swinging the bats well.
Rangers got it. Wright has been impressive over his last 3 starts, and will continue to pitch well against an average Royals offense in this one. Bannister will keep it competitive, but in the end the Rangers emerge victorious.
Take the Rangers behind Wright over the Royals in this MLB match up.
Diamondbacks
Arizona, winners of 6 straight, can be one hell of a streaky team. But right now they're on the upswing, and I say let's ride them to victory over the Braves and mediocre starter Jo-Jo Reyes.
Granted, we all watched Reyes in his last start, which was his best thus far, but I'm still far from convinced! 3 times he's pitched, 3 times the Braves have lost, despite putting them in position to win in his last start. Look guys, the fact remains he's 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA in 3 starts this season... Not good enough to beat a red-hot D-Backs team starting a quality pitcher in Yusmeiro Petit.
Petit was excellent in his last start and continues to shine in the place of the injured Randy Johnson. He dominated a red-hot Cubs team, throwing 6 scoreless innings, allowing only 3 hits! If he can shut down the Cubs, then he sure as hell can shut down the Braves. Petit is 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA over his last 3 starts.
Bottom line, the Diamondbacks have far too much an edge on the mound to lose this game. Reyes can range from terrible to serviceable, but tonight on the road, he'll revert right back to his struggles. Look for another strong start from Petit in a winning effort.
Take the Diamondbacks behind Petit over the Braves in this MLB showdown.
