Bm 2016 nfl system picks: *2015 97-63-13=60.3% +18.41 units

[bostonmickey1125]

BOSTON MICKEY 2016 NFL SYSTEM RULES:

SYSTEM PICKS	SYSTEM USES 4 SUBSETS OF DATA TO DETERMINE AN NFL TEAMS PREDICTED COVER POINTS AND COMPARES THEM TO THEIR WEEKLY OPPONENTS.THEN DETERMINES WHICH TEAM IS THE FAVORITE TO WIN AND COVER CURRENT ATS LINES.
FAV PLAY: WHEN PRED. COVER FAVORITE POINTS EQUAL CURRENT ATS LINE. (=0.00)
FAV PLAY WITH CUSHION: WHEN PRED. COVER FAVORITE POINTS ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENT ATS LINE, AND DIF IS POSITIVE LEAVING EXTRA POINTS (CUSHION) FOR LINE MOVEMENT.
FAV PLAY UNDERDOG: WHEN PRED. COVER FAVORITE POINTS ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENT ATS LINE AND IS AN UNDERDOG.
EVEN MATCHUPS: WHEN PRED COVER POINTS ARE CLOSE TO 0 AND LESS THEN OR EQUAL TO 1.00: SYSTEM PREDICTS THESE AS EQUALLY MATCHED TEAMS, SO WHEN E.M. ARE PRED. TAKING POINTS/UNDERDOG IS THE PLAY DUE TO EQUAL OR CLOSE PREDICTION.
	WHEN TAKING POINTS OR HOME TEAM IN THIS SCENARIO IS ALMOST 50/50 WHEN PLACING A BET ON IT. SO TAKING POINTS/UNDERDOG IS MY PLAY FOR THE SYSTEM
UNDERVALUED UNDERDOGS: WHEN PRED. COVER FAVORITE IS THE CURRENT ATS UNDERDOG
	NOT A FAN OF THIS SYSTEM PICK (HAS HAD BAD NUMBERS THE LAST 3 YRS 27-31-5 -2.5 UNITS)
REGULAR PICKS
NON SYSTEM PLAYS
PARLAY PICKS
PRED COVER AND CURRENT ATS LINE WHEN SUBRACTED THE "DIF" EQUAL TO -1.50, -1.00, -0.50. WIN LOSS PUSH I HAVE $2000.00 FOR THE SYSTEM THIS YR SYSTEM PICKS: 1000.00 BUYIN $25-50 EACH PLAY OVERALL PICKS: 1000.00 BUY IN $10 EACH PLAY *******2016 WEEKS 1-4 USES ADJUSTED 2015 STATISTICS UNTIL 2016 STATISTICAL SAMPLE SIZE GETS TO WEEK 5. (2015 WEEKS 1-4 RECORD 2015 ATS W1 11-5 W2 11-5 W3 7-9 W4 7-9 36-28-0 =56.3% +4.0 UNITS

 

[indiana]

BM/1125........BOL with all your action this season..............indy

 

[bostonmickey1125]

WEEK 1: SUBJECT TO LINE & TOTAL CHANGES. WILL UPDATE IF NECCESARY.

W1	MATCHUPS	PRED FAV	LINE	PRED COVER PNTS	DIF	SYSTEM PLAY	PRED ATS PICK	O/U	PRED OU PK	PRED TOT	DIF	FINAL TOTAL	TOT DIF	SYSTEM PLAY
1Th	CAR	VS	DEN	CAR	-2	5.50	3.50	FAV PLAY W/ +3.5 POINT CUSHION	CAR	-2	43.0	UND	37.5	-5.50	0	-43
2	TB	VS	ATL	ATL	-3	0.50	-2.50	EVEN MATCHUP TAKE POINTS	TB	+3	47.5	UND	44	-3.50	0	-47.5
3	BUF	VS	BAL	BUF	+3	2.50	5.50	UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG	BUF	+3	43.0	UND	45.5	2.50	0	-43	ALL OVER FADE/ UNDER
4	CHI	VS	HOU	HOU	-5.5	2.00	-3.50	REG	CHI	+5.5	44.0	NP	43.5	-0.50	0	-44
5	GB	VS	JAX	GB	-4	2.50	-1.50	REG	JAX	+4	47.0	OV	48	1.00	0	-47
6	SD	VS	KC	KC	-7	7.00	0.00	FAV PLAY	KC	-7	43.0	OV	44.5	1.50	0	-43
7	OAK	VS	NO	OAK	+1.5	2.00	3.50	UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG	OAK	+1.5	50.0	OV	54	4.00	0	-50
8	CIN	VS	NYJ	CIN	-2	3.50	1.50	FAV PLAY W/ +1.5 POINT CUSHION	CIN	-2	42.5	UND	37	-5.50	0	-42.5
9	CLE	VS	PHI	PHI	-7	5.50	-1.50	REG	CLE	+7	45.0	OV	45	0.00	0	-45
10	MIN	VS	TEN	MIN	-3	4.00	1.00	FAV PLAY W/ +1 POINT CUSHION	MIN	-3	42.0	OV	42.5	0.50	0	-42
11	MIA	VS	SEA	SEA	-7.5	7.00	-0.50	REG	MIA	+7.5	44.0	UND	41	-3.00		-44
12	NYG	VS	DAL	NYG	+3.5	5.00	8.50	UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG	NYG	+3.5	49.0	UND	45	-4.00		-49
13	DET	VS	IND	DET	+5	0.00	5.00	EVEN MATCHUP TAKE POINTS	DET	+5	49.0	UND?	45	-4.00		-49
14	NE	VS	ARI	ARI	-5.5	2.50	-3.00	REG	NE	+5.5	51.0	UND	40	-11.00		-51
15	PIT	VS	WAS	PIT	-3	2.00	-1.00	REG	WAS	+3	50.5	OV	46.5	-4.00		-50.5	ALL UNDER FADE/ OVER
16MN	LAR	VS	SF	LAR	-2	2.00	0.00	FAV PLAY	LAR	-2	46.0	OV	36	-10.00		-46	ALL UNDER FADE/ OVER

 

[bostonmickey1125]

dog parlay
jax	+4
cle	+7
mia	+7.5
was	+3
o/u parlay
buf	43.0	und
was	50.5	ov
lar	46.0	ov
fav parlay
car	-2
kc	-7
min	-3
lar	-2

 

[bostonmickey1125]

Any questions feel free... I dont do preseason games.

 

[bostonmickey1125]

bm 2015 nfl system w/l record ats breakdown (partial yr)
	w	l	p	t	%	w/l dif	w/l $vig
reg plays	36	24	3	63	57.1%	12	$545
even matchup
0.00	5	4	2	11	45.5%	1	$45.5
0.50	3	2	0	5	60.0%	1	$45.5
1.00	5	2	0	7	71.4%	3	$136.4
		13	8	2	23	56.5%	5	$227.3
e.m. Take home team	10	6	1	17	58.8%
e.m. Take points	9	7	1	17	52.9%
undervalued underdogs	8	10	2	20	40.0%	-2	$(136.4)
fav play 0.00	5	3	2	10	50.0%	2	$136.4
fav play with cushion	31	18	4	53	58.5%	13	$886.4
fav play $50 underdog	4	0	0	4	100.0%	4	$181.8
		40	21	6	67	59.7%
totals	97	63	13	173	60.3%	34	$1,841

thought this might be useful to some.

 

[bostonmickey1125]

Thanks indy , bol to you 2!!

 

[fightgood]

When your graph says "Pred Fav" It means that's who you think should be favored, right? For instance you have Buffalo Bills as Pred Fav even though they are the dog.

 

[bostonmickey1125]

when your graph says "pred fav" it means that's who you think should be favored, right? For instance you have buffalo bills as pred fav even though they are the dog.

yes you are correct. Pred fav is the team that is predicted to win or supposed to be the favorite not always to cover ats. Buf as the pred fav is pred to win and cover ats. Hope this helps understand

you want to just look at pred ats pick and what type of pick it is. The carolina game is a fav play and car is predicted to 5.5 points. The current line is -2 car..,leaving 3.5 left for line change or movemetn. So carolina can cover up to 5.5 points, if the line goes to 6 then i would play on den +6. Makes sense?

 

[E-49-R]

Nice system...I haven't seen this one...57% is nice BOL bm!

 

[bostonmickey1125]

nice system...i haven't seen this one...57% is nice bol bm!

thanks, should be fun. Gl to us! Welcome to the rx this place is wicked

 

[bostonmickey1125]

WEEK 1 UPDATED

W1	MATCHUPS	PRED FAV	LINE	PRED COVER PNTS	DIF	SYSTEM PLAY	PRED ATS PICK	LIVE O/U	PRED OU PK	PRED TOT	DIF	FINAL TOTAL	TOT DIF	SYSTEM PLAY
1Th	CAR	VS	DEN	CAR	-3	5.50	2.50	FAV PLAY W/ POINT CUSHION	CAR	-3	43.0	UND	37.5	-5.50	0	-43
2	TB	VS	ATL	ATL	-3	0.50	-2.50	EVEN MATCHUP TAKE POINTS	TB	+3	47.5	UND	44	-3.50	0	-47.5
3	BUF	VS	BAL	BUF	+3	2.50	5.50	UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG	BUF	+3	43.0	UND	45.5	2.50	0	-43	ALL OVER FADE/ UNDER
4	CHI	VS	HOU	HOU	-4	2.00	-2.00	REG	CHI	+4	44.0	NP	43.5	-0.50	0	-44
5	GB	VS	JAX	GB	-4	2.50	-1.50	REG	JAX	+4	47.0	OV	48	1.00	0	-47
6	SD	VS	KC	KC	-7	7.00	0.00	FAV PLAY	KC	-7	43.0	OV	44.5	1.50	0	-43
7	OAK	VS	NO	OAK	+1	2.00	3.00	UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG	OAK	+1	50.5	OV	54	3.50	0	-50.5
8	CIN	VS	NYJ	CIN	-2	3.50	1.50	FAV PLAY W/ POINT CUSHION	CIN	-2	41.5	UND	37	-4.50	0	-41.5
9	CLE	VS	PHI	PHI	-6	5.50	-0.50	REG	CLE	+6	43.5	OV	45	1.50	0	-43.5	DOWN 1.5
10	MIN	VS	TEN	MIN	-3.5	4.00	0.50	FAV PLAY W/ POINT CUSHION	MIN	-3.5	42.0	OV	42.5	0.50	0	-42
11	MIA	VS	SEA	SEA	-10.5	7.00	-3.50	REG	MIA	+10.5	44.0	UND	41	-3.00	0	-44
12	NYG	VS	DAL	NYG	+3.5	5.00	8.50	UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG	NYG	+3.5	49.0	UND	45	-4.00	0	-49
13	DET	VS	IND	DET	+5	0.00	5.00	EVEN MATCHUP TAKE POINTS	DET	+5	49.0	UND?	45	-4.00	0	-49
14	NE	VS	ARI	ARI	-6	2.50	-3.50	REG	NE	+6	47.5	UND	40	-7.50	0	-47.5	DOWN 3.5
15	PIT	VS	WAS	PIT	-3	2.00	-1.00	REG	WAS	+3	50.0	OV	46.5	-3.50	0	-50	ALL UNDER FADE/ OVER
16MN	LAR	VS	SF	LAR	-2.5	2.00	-0.50	REG	LAR	-2.5	44.0	OV	36	-8.00	0	-44	ALL UNDER FADE/ OVER

BOLDED LINES: SPREAD CHANGED

 

[bostonmickey1125]

WEEK 1
2ND UPDATE/LAST

↓↑	W1	MATCHUPS	PRED FAV	LINE	PRED COVER PNTS	DIF	SYSTEM PLAY	PRED ATS PICK	LIVE O/U	PRED OU PK	PRED TOT	DIF	FINAL TOTAL	TOT DIF	SYSTEM PLAY
	1Th	CAR	VS	DEN	CAR	-3	5.50	2.50	FAV PAY W/ CUSH	CAR	-3	42.0	UND	37.5	-4.50	0	-42
	2	TB	VS	ATL	ATL	-3	0.50	-2.50	EVEN MATCHUP TAKE POINTS	TB	+3	47.5	UND	44	-3.5	0	-47.5
	3	BUF	VS	BAL	BUF	+3	2.50	5.50	UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG	BUF	+3	44.5	UND	45.5	1.00	0	-44.5	UNDER
	4	CHI	VS	HOU	HOU	-6	2.00	-4.00	REG	CHI	+6	44.0	NP	43.5	-0.50	0	-44
	5	GB	VS	JAX	GB	-4.5	2.50	-2.00	REG	JAX	+4.5	48.0	OV	48	0.00	0	-48
	6	SD	VS	KC	KC	-7	7.00	0.00	FAV PLAY	KC	-7	44.5	OV	44.5	0.00	0	-44.5
	7	OAK	VS	NO	OAK	+1	2.00	3.00	UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG	OAK	+1	51.0	OV	54	3.00	0	-51
	8	CIN	VS	NYJ	CIN	-3	3.50	0.50	FAV PLAY W/ CUSHION	CIN	-3	41.5	UND	37	-4.50	0	-41.5
	9	CLE	VS	PHI	PHI	-4	3.50	-0.50	REG	CLE	+4	41.5	OV	45	3.50	0	-41.5	DOWN 3.5
	10	MIN	VS	TEN	MIN	-1.5	2.00	0.50	FAV PLAY W/ CUSHION	MIN	-1.5	41.0	OV	42.5	1.50	0	-41
	11	MIA	VS	SEA	SEA	-10.5	7.00	-3.50	REG	MIA	+10.5	44.0	UND	41	-3.00	0	-44
	12	NYG	VS	DAL	NYG	0	5.00	5.00	UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG	NYG	PK	46.0	UND	45	-1.00	0	-46
	13	DET	VS	IND	DET	+3.5	0.00	3.50	EVEN MATCHUP TAKE POINTS	DET	+3.5	51.5	UND	45	-6.50	0	-51.5
	14	NE	VS	ARI	ARI	-6	2.50	-3.50	REG	NE	+6	47.5	UND	40	-7.50	0	-47.5	DOWN 3.5
	15MN	PIT	VS	WAS	PIT	-3	2.00	-1.00	REG	WAS	+3	50.0	OV	46.5	-3.50	0	-50	OVER
	16MN	LAR	VS	SF	LAR	-2.5	2.00	-0.50	REG	LAR	-2.5	44.0	OV	36	-8.00	0	-44	OVER

SYSTEM PLAYS/W1

FAV PLAYS
KC -7

FAV PLAYS WITH CUSHION
CAR -3
MIN -1.5
CIN -3

EVEN MATCHUPS
TB +3
DET+3.5

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOGS
BUF +3
OAK +1
NYG PK

TOTALS
BUF @ BAL UNDER 44.5
PIT @ WAS OVER 50
LAR @ SF OVER 44

MY FAV SYSTEM PLAY OF WEEK
CAR -3
________________________________

REGULAR PLAYS
CHI +6
JAX +4.5
CLE +4
MIA+10.5
NE +6
WAS +3
LAR -2.5

GL RX THIS FOOTBALL SEASON SHOULD BE FUN AND GOD WILLING PROFITABLE!!

 

[varkeyboy]

How did you do last year? Thanks.

 

[bostonmickey1125]

how did you do last year? Thanks.

posted above. Post #6 gl varkey

 

[NYG4lifeNYK]

Thanks for posting all this data brother.


Sorry if I'm a bit confused. Am I correct in reading that your predicted line is Giants +3 as in they should be favored by 3 points and that they'll cover by 5? Or am I completely off-base? haha

 

[KingEleven]

good luck BM

 

[bostonmickey1125]

thanks for posting all this data brother.


Sorry if i'm a bit confused. Am i correct in reading that your predicted line is giants +3 as in they should be favored by 3 points and that they'll cover by 5? Or am i completely off-base? Haha

yea a bit off.

If you look nyg pred cover points are 5, the current line is a pk...nyg can cover up tpo 5 points. If the current line moved over 5 to 5.5 , then you would play on dallas, make sense?

 

[bostonmickey1125]

W1

MATCHUPS

PRED FAV

LINE

PRED COVER PNTS

DIF

SYSTEM PLAY

PRED ATS PICK

LIVE O/U

PRED OU PK

PRED TOT

DIF

FINAL TOTAL

TOT DIF

SYSTEM PLAY

1Th

CAR

VS

DEN

CAR

-3

5.50

2.50

FAV PLAY W/ CUSHION

CAR

-3

42.0

UND

37.5

-4.50

0

-42

EXAMPLE..CAR IS THE PREDICTED FAVORITE (NOT CURRENT LINE FAV ALL THE TIME) . MY SYSTEM PREDICTS CAR CAN COVER UP TO 5.5 POINTS..IF CAR CURRENT LINE WAS -6, THEN I WOULD PLAY ON DEN. SINCE CAR LINE IS -3, IT LEAVES 2.5 LEFT OVER FOR POINT MOVEMENT. HOPE THIS CLEARS UP CONFUSION

 

[HotRocks]

Are these the official and final play for week 1?

FAV PLAYS
KC -7

FAV PLAYS WITH CUSHION
CAR -3
MIN -1.5
CIN -3

EVEN MATCHUPS
TB +3
DET+3.5

UNDERVALUED UNDERDOGS
BUF +3
OAK +1
NYG PK

TOTALS
BUF @ BAL UNDER 44.5
PIT @ WAS OVER 50
LAR @ SF OVER 44

MY FAV SYSTEM PLAY OF WEEK
CAR -3
________________________________

REGULAR PLAYS
CHI +6
JAX +4.5
CLE +4
MIA+10.5
NE +6
WAS +3
LAR -2.5