Bk's soccer plays for 2016

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Hi all.

Relatively new here. Posted a lot over across the street, but generally haven't posted a lot anywhere. Had a rough football season, but been doing OK on the pitch.

Figured with the new year I'd track my picks here, since for the most part I like the forum set up here.

When I first started wagering on soccer, I was all over the map, literally. I'd bet on any league you could throw at me. I learned over the past several years that was a losing strategy (duh), so now I really just play the top two English leagues (EPL and ECL), along with some of the other top European Leagues as well, but mostly English. Occasionally might dabble in MLS, although I don't follow it much. Sometimes might play a late night Japanese or Australian match, but usually only out of degenerate need.

When capping soccer, I focus on current form, standings, home/away form, etc. Don't get too much into any tactical advantages/strategies. I've never really played the game, so I'm not going to pretend I know all the ins and outs that each team bring. Obviously it's important to be in tune with some basic stuff like which teams play more offensive, which play more defense (and sometimes why), and if key players are out, etc. But I am not going to delve too deep into matchups and such with any write-ups. I look for good value on plays and try to be selective. I do tend to play more faves and overs, but not exclusively for sure.


Anyway, just a little about me.


Enough blabber, I'll get to my picks.


:smoking:
 

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Thursday:


Celta de Vigo ML (-125) 1.25 units risked.

Celta travel to Cadiz in the Copa Del Rey today, first leg of two. Celta play in Spain's top league (La Liga), and are doing quite well this season, considering how top heavy that league is, a 5th spot finish (which is where they stand) would be an accomplishment. Long way to go for that, but playing well for sure. Cadiz plays in Spain's THIRD league (Segunda B), and are doing well there, but the talent drop off between the leagues is very wide. Cadiz is the only Segunda B side left in this competition, and is only here by virtue of Real Madrid being disqualified for using an ineligible player in their first leg last round. Even on the road, I just like that price on what should be the much better side. Seen many times where some teams just don't show up for a leg, and then TCB at home next time, but at that price, this is a play for me here.

Also looked hard at Eibar, but that match up is more even, so had to pass.

In England's League One, Gillingham caught my eye, but I have not been wagering that league, or really even following it much to be honest. They are at Wigan, but ML was over +300, and they are top 2 side in the standings at the moment. Not sure if I'll play it or not. To be honest, I was only looking at it because on covers I am in a contest where you have to pick one play per day and they track your ROI. Since it's a small card, I looked it over, but went with Celta instead. So I could be missing something big here, so didn't want to wager on it.

BOL everyone............................


:smoking:

9k=
 

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....and not to confuse anyway, I used BK in the subject, those are my initials. JackStraw is just my screen name here, since I'm a big Dead fan.

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JS/420...........appreciate your info...........BOL with your action...........indy
 

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Welcome BK! I made the move from Covers as well.. This platform is much more stable and not ridden with so many viruses.. BOL to you this year!
 

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Thanks guys.

Easy winner yesterday, 1-0 +1 unit. Wish they were all that easy.


One small play for today.


PSG -2.5 (-115) 0.575 units risked to win 0.500


A little apprehensive since this is the first match back after break, but it's a home match vs. a pretty mediocre Bastia side. PSG have been rolling at home in league.


Looked at maybe hitting the Exeter-Pool OVER, but likely passing. Small card today for sure. Might take a look at the Copa America qualifiers later, for some Friday night degen action. We'll see. For now, just the PSG play,

BOL everyone! :smoking:


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Loss on PSG today. Felt good netting 2 in the 1H, but then nada. I did not watch the match, so no clue if they had chances or not. Nevertheless, it's a loss.

1-1 (+0.425 units)


Looked over those Copa America qualifiers and nothing jumped out at me to warrant a play. I did however, do a little research on the matches and the upcoming event and looks great with so many great countries playing at venues all across the US, including Chicago!! Should be fun!



Until tomorrow.................:smoking:
 

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I have a few hoops plays. They are just system plays. Used it last year, with some success, and after a slow start this year, things have turned around some. I will expand on what my process is when I have more time, but it's kind of a public fade type system, but fairly selective and situational. I'll bring it to the appropriate forums if it continues to do OK and could be of value, until then I'll just keep them here. I usually bet them at about 1/2 unit, depending. So I will just use that base for keeping track.

NCAA
Buffalo +6.5
W. Michigan +10
Detroit -16


NBA
Pelicans +2
Bucks +1
Grizz -5.5
Suns +5.5


It has good nights, and bad, and some games just get blown to hell, as you do have to bet on some pretty bad teams. But, hopefully overall it will grind out some profit. I cannot watch NBA, and have ZERO insight into matchups and what not. College I can tolerate more, but haven't been watching. Purely a system, and only under certain instances will I exclude a game if it fits.

BOL all...............:smoking:
 

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Hoops system did well Friday! NCAA 3-0 as Detroit holds on and avoids backdoor cover from UIC. NBA is 2-1 with Suns pending. The first 3 NBA games all could have gone either way.

OK, here are the soccer plays for Saturday so far. All are England FA Cup matches, outside of the one Auzzie play.


Half Unit Plays (all are to win half unit, unless otherwise noted)

Australia:
Melbourne City - Western Sydney OV 2.75 (-130)

England FA Cup:
Hartlepool - Derby OV 2.5 (-120)
Ipswich Town ML (-110)
Hull City ML (-140)
Leeds Utd ML (-110)

One Unit Plays

England FA Cup:

Watford ML (-125)
Middlesbrough ML (-110)



Still looking over the Spanish card now, but doubt I have much there, if at all.

 

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NCAA System play for Saturday

DePaul +10



Same deal, half unit on all these unless otherwise noted. Will have others throughout the day, as their tip times approach. Went 5-2 last night, 3-0 in NCAA.
 

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Half Unit Plays (all are to win half unit, unless otherwise noted)

Melbourne City - Western Sydney OV 2.75 (-130)
Hartlepool - Derby OV 2.5 (-120)
Ipswich Town ML (-110)
Hull City ML (-140)
Leeds Utd ML (-110)


One Unit Plays

Watford ML (-125)
Middlesbrough ML (-110)
 

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Well, not a bad day on the pitch, but Middlesbrough let me down for sure. But still, 5-2 on the day and up 1.35 units.

YTD on soccer, 6-3 (+1.775 units)

One play on the last FA Cup match

Man United - Sheffield Utd OV 2.5 (-155) (to win half unit). Juicy, but I can see goals in this one. Tread lightly, these cup matches are tough to peg sometimes, I am grateful to have survived the morning at 5-2!!

:smoking:
 

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DePaul +10 is a loser. Betting is not fun sometimes. DePaul hangs in all game, stupid coach gets TWO technicals in the last 5 minutes, gives Hoyas 3 free points. They still manage to keep it at 9, then foul with 12 seconds left down 9, and lose by 11. Oh well. Granted, might win just as many on flukey stuff, so not complaining about that. Just frustrating when you are actually watching it, which I don't always do, but it was on and the Man U game (another loser) is boring.
 

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